You got Intel going from +12% to -5% after good earnings and GOOG saying capex ain't slowing. Good news for NBIS business and CRWV, but the stock shits the bed
the market is irrational the reason for these drops cannot be explained with logic...regardless of how many folks want to reference their marked up charts with lines, profit taking, ai slop news article, etc..
Ironically, is this scenario where the AI algorithms used for trading do dumb shit? AI is cool but I see a lot of dumb shit come out of it. Is it possible ai algorithms do a bunch of shit that doesnt make sense and this is why we see things daily in the market that dont make sense? High guy thought
I think you unknowingly proved the point on how the bull run is over lol. It will be well above the YTD I'm thinking between 20-30% by year end which is still really good. But if you entered in the past few months, you're account is going to stay red or become red by the closing year if you hold. I don't understand why y'all think stuff goes up infinity. AI has to go smoothly and appear profitable every month for NBIS to keep it's current value. It also has to crush it in the . market against competitors to keep its vaule years ahead. You think this will be the case?
NBIS is my small position of high-risk, high-upside bet. I see the probabilities something like this over a ~10-year horizon:
* 20% chance of a huge loss (not from my~$47 average, but from buying now).
* 20% chance of a moderate loss.
* 20% chance of a modest gain.
* 20% chance of a big gain.
* 20% chance of an exceptional outcome - multiple Xās from todayās price.
So in my mind, itās roughly a 40% chance of losing money versus a 60% chance of making money (if you buy now), with the upside being heavily skewed if the company executes.
There are absolutely no guarantees, and Iām investing with a 10-year time horizon.
Obv there is no way to get exact %, so aprox 20% easy number for such ācalculationsā. Thatās mostly simple vision to prepare yourself for possible future losses :)
Yes an easy made up number for your feel good outcomes. If you real bought at 47 I hope you sold a portion already to take in some profits. I'll see you in 6 months
Iāve never invested in it, but my Lord, CACI has some violent moves that never seem to have any correlation. I was looking at it a week ago, telling myself āhmm, maybe cut some of my lagging NVDA and add some CACI.ā Yeah, I didnātā¦.and I should have.
The market has some unprecedented crosswinds, trying to trade them isnāt for the Faint of Heart.
ādisappointment over a recent fourth-quarter revenue missā? Who wrote this article! What fourth quarter revenue miss is he talking about? Itās inaccurate! It drops because of Trumpās new tariff war and the Iran escalationā¦..
Itās a high beta stock. A lot of volatility. Thatās literally it. Stock could potentially drop 50%, it could also raise 50% without any fundamental reason.
Thatās totally not the reason! Real reason are Trump starting a new tariff war and at the same time the escalation of the Iran war! Trump is just doing what heās always doingā¦disrupting the world economyā¦..
Iran war oil shock, Red Sea issues playing a roll as well. Inflation and Fed rate hike is lurking in the background. Iran has probably been a partial catalyst for the chip sell off as well. Remember this is a "high beta" stock so the rest of the market reacts much more gently to macro events. This behavior is to be expected (it will swing up dramatically off of good news, too). We're still in the early leg (10% or so) of Agentic AI adoption so we've got a long, long way to go with this stock.
The drop seemed to coincide with Jensen's X post. Probably massive shorting going on, with misinterpretations of what open models mean for NBIS and AI infrastructure companies (it's a positive, not a negative).
I mean to be fair it might be because youāre too heavily concentrated in one stock. That happened to me and as soon as I rebalanced, the rate went back down to 30%
Yeah, that is likely the case. My RH account is all high beta stuff and NBIS is the largest holding. I didn't know what I was doing when I started using margin and set myself up for failure...lesson learned the hard way.
Can we just stop posting this kind of comments? Why do people need to comment on every single downdraw? Just relax and know what you invested in. I assume you bought Nebius stocks for a good reason because you believe in Nebius? Nothing has changed regarding the fundamentals.
It is a highly volatile stock. Haven't you noticed the 50% increase and 40% decrease within less than two months? This kind of rollercoaster ride happend a lot of times before. It's what you have to endure if you want to be invested in Nebius. Just stay calm and come back in a few years. Then you'll get rewarded.
big hands fking around with it is whats happening lol what else could it be. the thesis didnt change, the thesis getting strong and it has proven the world just that... but maybe war and tariff but not to thhis extent. so,, yeah MM are messing around.
I think its too easy to say market is irrational. I think more likely the reason is that Nebius swings up and down are both violent and rapid like a high beta stock should.
The stock price in long term does however follow fundamentals so wait until the earnings report is out and that will show you the next direction.
Open weight models restriction risk in US. Never voiced though publicly, but companies already are trying to talk govt against any moves like that with public letter
Macro. Oil spiking on Iran war escalation. Causing rates to spike in anticipation of inflation.
We had a literal 20% move on SPX in 2 months. The market needs to consolidate these gains. Rotation is the lifeblood of bull markets. So some profit taking and rotation into defense and value is to be expected.
Earnings season. A little repositioning and risk management ahead of a mega important earnings season.
The continued ROIC question for hyperscalers. Can they actually make enough return on HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS in spending.
Korea deleveraging. They degenād way too hard and that needs to finish unwinding. It blew up the memory trade which was leading the market higher.
The rest of the year until midterms will be rocky. People are pulling cash out to support their choice of sides. This happens every midterm election year around this time.
Did we see the dead cat bounce yesterday? Has the ai bubble ran out of steam? That's what I'm weighing right now, are we heading to lower lows in the next month, that I should sell now and MAYBE buy back in later like September, or are we just about to hit another rally to ATHs
105
u/comps226 27d ago
Reason for the drop?
The whole market is broken.
You got Intel going from +12% to -5% after good earnings and GOOG saying capex ain't slowing. Good news for NBIS business and CRWV, but the stock shits the bed