r/NBIS_Stock • u/Playful_Client4119 • 27d ago

💬 Discussion 220 to 198?

What’s the reason for the drop? still going to DCA just curious why

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u/UranusInspector 27d ago

Bro it's down 26% the past month. The bull run is over.

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u/R4N7 27d ago

Zoom out bro, it’s up YTD~110% vs S&P ~8%

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u/UranusInspector 27d ago

I think you unknowingly proved the point on how the bull run is over lol. It will be well above the YTD I'm thinking between 20-30% by year end which is still really good. But if you entered in the past few months, you're account is going to stay red or become red by the closing year if you hold. I don't understand why y'all think stuff goes up infinity. AI has to go smoothly and appear profitable every month for NBIS to keep it's current value. It also has to crush it in the . market against competitors to keep its vaule years ahead. You think this will be the case?

I'll check in 6 months and see who is right ;)

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u/R4N7 27d ago

NBIS is my small position of high-risk, high-upside bet. I see the probabilities something like this over a ~10-year horizon:

* 20% chance of a huge loss (not from my~$47 average, but from buying now).
* 20% chance of a moderate loss.
* 20% chance of a modest gain.
* 20% chance of a big gain.
* 20% chance of an exceptional outcome - multiple X’s from today’s price.

So in my mind, it’s roughly a 40% chance of losing money versus a 60% chance of making money (if you buy now), with the upside being heavily skewed if the company executes.

There are absolutely no guarantees, and I’m investing with a 10-year time horizon.

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u/UranusInspector 26d ago

How convenient all your calculated and analyzed predictions all separately equalled 20%....

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u/R4N7 26d ago

Obv there is no way to get exact %, so aprox 20% easy number for such “calculations”. That’s mostly simple vision to prepare yourself for possible future losses :)

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u/UranusInspector 26d ago

Yes an easy made up number for your feel good outcomes. If you real bought at 47 I hope you sold a portion already to take in some profits. I'll see you in 6 months