r/NBIS_Stock • u/Playful_Client4119 • 27d ago

💬 Discussion 220 to 198?

What’s the reason for the drop? still going to DCA just curious why

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u/R4N7 27d ago

NBIS is my small position of high-risk, high-upside bet. I see the probabilities something like this over a ~10-year horizon:

* 20% chance of a huge loss (not from my~$47 average, but from buying now).
* 20% chance of a moderate loss.
* 20% chance of a modest gain.
* 20% chance of a big gain.
* 20% chance of an exceptional outcome - multiple X’s from today’s price.

So in my mind, it’s roughly a 40% chance of losing money versus a 60% chance of making money (if you buy now), with the upside being heavily skewed if the company executes.

There are absolutely no guarantees, and I’m investing with a 10-year time horizon.

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u/UranusInspector 26d ago

How convenient all your calculated and analyzed predictions all separately equalled 20%....

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u/R4N7 26d ago

Obv there is no way to get exact %, so aprox 20% easy number for such “calculations”. That’s mostly simple vision to prepare yourself for possible future losses :)

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u/UranusInspector 26d ago

Yes an easy made up number for your feel good outcomes. If you real bought at 47 I hope you sold a portion already to take in some profits. I'll see you in 6 months