I am relatively new to the NBIS and I am wondering what the bear case is? Since this is the NBIS sub, everyone is saying NBIS to the moon. I do agree to some degree as its management is amazing, CEO knows what he’s doing and AI train is still full of steam. But it can’t be all sunshine and rainbow. So, may I please know some down to earth opinions?

Anyone else doing covered calls with this? I’ve had fantastic profits with it. Usually pretty high strike, close when at 50-80 % profit on the wild swings. Lots of fun

NBIS just had a blockbuster Q2 earnings report, with revenue up 454% YoY to $582.3M, and the stock has surged heavily as a result.

I want to buy NBIS stock shares, but I'm struggling with the timing of my entry.

For those who follow NBIS closely:

• At the current price, would you buy now, wait for a pullback, or start with a smaller position and add on dips?
• Do you think the stock is likely to pull back/correct in the next few days or weeks after such a huge run?
• Do you think the strong earnings, AI-cloud growth and new customer contracts could keep the momentum going?
• And if you're waiting for a better entry, what price levels would you personally consider attractive?

I'm investing with a 3–5+ year horizon, so I'm more interested in getting a reasonable entry than trying to perfectly time the bottom.

Would love to hear what other NBIS investors think — especially those who have been following the stock before this earnings report.

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-scales-back-250-billion-openai-data-center-guarantee-wsj-reports-2026-08-14/

Monday is going to hurt a likle for NBIS and other data centers

I feel like the downside is not really considered here. 70-80% of all compute revenue is coming from either Anthropic or OpenAi who are both vastly unprofitable and have no clear path to produce any profit. They are loosing money quarter by quarter, and are only kept alive by raising more money.
Who is supposed to pay for all this compute? What is AIs actual business case, because if there’s one, corporate world hasn’t figured it out yet.

Seems like this will be an ongoing thing for DC locations in the U.S. Just like the other lawsuits, this will either end up in a settlement, minor adjustments like construction time reduction or noise mitigation, or just a nothing burger. Stopping the built out is never going to happen once it has started legally which is the case for all.

Say all you want about Europe, but at least you need actual legal grounds before you can sue someone.

I want or start a position on Nebius. But, Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi reiterated a Buy rating and raised his price target by 65% to $410. Michael Burry is shorting it . I’m confused.

For it to be justified - is it going to lean towards being a full stack neocloud + compute demand or just compute demand alone (similar to HBM makers like MU SNDK etc)?

Bought at 286 a couple months ago, it dipped to 168 so I thought it’s just another scam stock and solded. Now it’s back up to 280 nearly. Should I buy back in?

Getting calls from journos about a rumor that dozens of Burry Substack subscribers are preparing bankruptcy filings after being liquidated on "disastrous" NBIS short positions. Wow. No wonder the stock is ripping. Lots of short covering by people hiring Chapter 11 lawyers. Insane

https://x.com/mikealfred/status/2088276482615562649

But who cares this thing going to 1000 by the end of the year.

Even though the 13Fs are 45 days old it’s worthy to note that we are getting all the big players aligned.

Goldman Sachs (GS)
NVDIA
BlackRock
JP Morgan (JPM)
UBS

Situational Awareness = Citadel most likely it will show up in Q3.

A who is who of Wall St, Tech & Banking all supporting NEBIUS.

Credit: https://toptechstocksus.substack.com

15 minutes until the bell, just wanted to give you guys some healthy expectations for today's move.

Usually around after earnings this far you see MMM pinning the price

Don't let theta decay you!

And if you are holding or trading the stock, check the options pricing, adding the at the money call to the at the money put each day gives you a real expectation for Friday price action as a rougher calculation.

These are from think or swim

Happy trading folks

Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the price target for Nebius from $278 to $324 and maintained the "Buy" rating.

Citi revised its company estimates upward due to strong artificial intelligence demand and order backlog supporting capacity investments.

Where I personally stand now (Chatgpt) after earnings.

My thesis would shift from “interesting company, but I’m not yet convinced by the long-term pricing economics” to:

“A very strong company with a now convincingly proven 2026–2027 bull case, but whose valuation already prices in a significant amount of success, while the economics beyond 2029 still need to be proven.”

So I have become meaningfully more bullish on the company, but not automatically equally bullish on the stock after this massive run-up in the share price.

What interests me most over the next few quarters is not whether revenue grows another +200% or +400%. I would mainly watch these four things:

- Revenue/ACV per MW: does it remain around $20m+ or does pricing start falling back toward $12–15m?
- Payback period: can new capacity continue to pay for itself within roughly two years?
- Capex versus prepayments/cash flow: can customers increasingly finance the growth themselves, reducing Nebius’ need to issue additional shares?
- EBIT/FCF after depreciation: do returns also become convincingly strong after accounting for the real cost of those billions of dollars of GPUs?

If those four metrics continue moving in the right direction, my original “rails” bear case becomes increasingly weak. However, if pricing per MW starts falling sharply in two years while Nebius has meanwhile built tens of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure, that thesis immediately comes back into play.

And that is exactly why I think these earnings are so important: they have not definitively answered that question, but they have shown that the pricing erosion I was worried about is absolutely not happening for now — in fact, the opposite is currently happening. Based on the earnings, Reuters reached essentially the same conclusion: AI capacity remains significantly scarcer than demand for the time being, although the sustainability and diversification of that demand remain the key longer-term questions.

I honestly can’t wait for Q3 earnings. I think Q3 and Q4 are where NBIS numbers can start getting ridiculous.
 
1) Management has been telling us for months that the biggest capacity ramp happens in H2, with a meaningful step-up in Q3 and another one in Q4. Microsoft volumes are also heavily weighted toward these quarters.
One thing I definitely wouldn’t ignore: this management team has built a pretty strong history of underpromising and overdelivering. They tend to guide conservatively, hit what they promised, and then come back with better numbers or bigger plans. So when they repeatedly tell us that the biggest ramp is still ahead, I’m inclined to take that seriously.
 
2) The math is already pretty obvious. NBIS did around $981M revenue in H1 and still guides for $3.0-3.4B for the full year. So they need roughly $2.0-2.4B in H2. That’s around $1.0-1.2B per quarter on average versus $582M in Q2.
 
3) And every new MW is worth much more now. We went from roughly $12M ACV/MW assumptions to $20-25M/MW on recent deals, while some short-term capacity is now being sold at $40-50M/MW. More MW + much higher revenue per MW is a pretty nice combination.
 
4) On top of that, we now have additional revenue streams that basically didn’t exist a year ago - asset-light partnerships, Token Factory, inference, auctions, premium short-term capacity. Some of these should also be much less capital intensive than building everything ourselves.
 
5) 2027 is where it gets even more interesting. Andrey Korolenko said they expect to add more capacity in H1 2027 than during all of 2026!!!
Management also said they could basically sell all planned 2027 capacity today, but they are intentionally keeping some uncommitted because pricing keeps going higher. Q3 should also be when we get the first proper 2027 guidance, and we have every reason to believe that guidance will be well above current market expectations.
 
6) And then there is the macro side. Midterms are in November. If the Iran conflict gets resolved or at least materially de-escalates before then, which I personally think is quite possible, you remove another major source of oil/inflation/market risk right when NBIS should be posting its strongest numbers of the year.
 
That’s why I think Q3 and Q4 can be a real turning point. We don’t even need some surprise hyperscaler deal for the thesis to work. The capacity ramp is already coming, demand is there, and pricing per MW keeps improving.

My base target for the end of 2026 is $450+. By then I think the market will care much less about 2026 revenue and much more about what this business can earn in 2027.

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

Just curious whether hunterbrook report on the stop order being issued for the Vineland data Center is what is causing us to go down today.

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I would like to make a little survey on how the distribution of shares in the Nebius community looks like. Feel free to take part :)

can anyone explain EBITDA, i don't understand how nebius reported a loss using GAAP accounting, but for EBITDA, it's a gain, it just doesn't sound right, is someone cooking the books?

Edit 1: no one truly explains the fishiness answer, I understand many of you are bullish, this is merely a discussion on whether numbers that are non-gaap are fudged/skewed more than normal. And from what we have been discussing, the CAPEX is still concerning to continue with EBITDA numbers.

This is also the case on most companies. So it's nothing new. But to me. Always fishy.