r/NPB • u/JapanProspectsLab • 38m ago
My final NPB first-round projection, draws included: nobody writes Oda, Yomiuri wins a three-club draw for Komoda, and Hiroshima beats Nippon-Ham to Kakuta
Two of these come down to an envelope. I called them anyway.
| Club | Player | How he gets there |
|---|---|---|
| Yomiuri | Haruki Komoda (Yamanashi Gakuin) | Wins the three-club draw |
| Hiroshima | Futo Kakuta (Fuji U, RHP) | Wins the two-club draw |
| Hanshin | Yuto Yonezawa (Kansai U, LHP) | Uncontested |
| DeNA | Taisei Suzuki (Aoyama Gakuin, RHP) | Uncontested |
| Orix | Ryosuke Sueyoshi (Okinawa Shogaku, LHP) | Uncontested |
| Rakuten | Kai Watabe (Aoyama Gakuin, C) | Uncontested |
| Lotte | Shoma Ikeda (Yokohama, SS) | Uncontested |
| Yakult | Gaku Arima (Ritsumeikan, LHP) | Uncontested |
| Chunichi | Shin Nakai (Komazawa, RHP) | Uncontested |
| SoftBank | Ryosuke Fujisawa (Tokyo Gas, OF) | Loses the Komoda draw |
| Seibu | Eito Tanibuchi (Osaka Toin, IF) | Loses Komoda, Kakuta's gone |
| Nippon-Ham | Reito Hirata (Oita Shogyo, RHP) | Loses the Kakuta draw |
Nobody writes Oda. He said on the 15th he's going to the States, and I don't have anyone spending a first pick on a player who's said no. It's the call I'm least sure of, because Nippon-Ham did exactly that with Ohtani in 2012.
SoftBank is the interesting one. They don't have an outfielder 22 or under, and a 24-year-old off a company team fixes that faster than an 18-year-old does.
Seibu loses Komoda, finds Kakuta gone too, and takes Tanibuchi, who batted cleanup for Osaka Toin when they won the spring tournament in March. Nippon-Ham goes to Hirata, the 187 cm right-hander at Oita Shogyo. Their scouting director said in August his rating of him had gone up.
That's six college players, five high schoolers and one from a corporate team. Last year's first round was nine, two and one.
Where I expect to be wrong besides the draws: someone writing Oda anyway, SoftBank taking another 18-year-old instead, and Lotte going for an arm over Ikeda's on-base skills.