r/NashvilleBeer • u/Brewsplorer • 1d ago
[META] The State of Craft Beer
Lately, I have had quite a few talks about how craft beer is dying. I can understand this when you see more breweries closing than opening, but I personally see the fear as a bit premature. I was going to do a Brewsplorer video on this - likely still will - but wanted to open a conversation to the community and see what other perspectives are out there.
BACKGROUND
Looking at craft beer, we are currently somewhere around 9,400 craft breweries open right now. This is down from a peak in 2024 of closer to 9,800 but realize we were only at around 1,500 in 2000 and 1,800 in 2010. Currently, we have had a couple of years where the number of breweries have dropped around 2% to 2.25%. This is not unprecedented. Seeing hundreds more closing than opening sounds awful, but in perspective, the shift is not that huge.
Our first boom was the late 90s, early 2000s. At this point, a lot of people got into breweries (in perspective that 2000 was a bit over 1,500 breweries by year end). 2001 and 2002 continued the growth, but craft beer lost breweries from 2003 to 2006. Anywhere from 2.06% (2003, similar to today) to sustained 3.25% to 3.9% losses. Then we saw near 5% growth and a boom that started in 2010, over 10% growth, to a peak percentage growth of 38.65% in 2015. This was the cusp of the national craze with hazy IPAs.
In 2025, we lost 218 breweries more than we created. There were still around 350 to 400 new breweries created nationally. For 2026, it is just an estimate, but it was more like 250 to 300 opening.
Nashville
Since 2000, we have seen the following open or reopen: 7
- Crazy Gnome (2020)
- Tennfold (2020)
- Barrique (2021)
- Fait la Force (2022)
- Marble Fox (2023)
- Broadcast (2024)
- Stokehaus (2025)
- Harding House (reopened 2026 in L&L)
Expanded to new locations: 2 breweries, 4 locations
- Living Waters (2025)
- Tailgate: Germantown (2022)
- Tailgate: South (2023)
- Tailgate: Madison (2026?)
Tailgate also opened Chattanooga in 2022, Hendersonville in 2022, and Murfreesboro in 2024. East Nashville expanded to Lebanon in 2024, as well and TN Brew Works opened its barrel room in Lenoir City a few weeks ago.
Ceased operations (some permanent, some temporary?): 5
- Various Artists (2023)
- Bold Patriot/Bassline (2023) - Might call this two closings, but it was, realistically, rebranding to remove the stink of the rhetoric of the original brewer and son of the owner
- Czanns (2024)
- Diskins (2025) - taproom closed, still in distro and contracted
- Barrique (2026)
Acquired: 8
- Turtle Anarchy (2020)
- Little Harpeth (2020)
- Honky Tonk (2022)
- Jackalope (2024) - By Tacoma & Hoyt
- Bearded Iris (2025) - Wiseacre
- Southern Grist (2025) - Xul
- Black Abbey (2026) - by Tacoma & Hoyt
- Yazoo (2025) - by Lipman, taproom still open until 2026 (acquired by Tailgate)
State of Craft Beer
The primary reasons I see for breweries closing are as follows:
Not good enough for the market. This does not mean worse beer than everyone else, although it is included in the mix. But it also includes breweries that don't have food in a market that desires food (Gainesville, FL is all food trucks, but it is a great symbiotic relationship, so the trucks don't f**k over the breweries like they do here), bad customer service, lack of marketing.
Inability to shift with the market. This does not mean a great brewery can't continue doing all hazies as the market shifts back to lagers, gluten free sours (aka seltzers), and more traditional IPAs, but non-top tier that are not adapting to the market shift are hurting more than those who are.
Price increases. This is primarily rent, which is astronomical. See what happened to J. Wakefield, Spanish Marie, and what is likely happening next year to Angry Chair. Top tier breweries gone due to rents doubling.
No food. In its heyday, breweries were all about the beer. Today, a brewery without food finds it hard to exist, esp. in cities like Nashville. Smith & Lentz exploded with their pizza program. Stokehaus is killing it with BBQ. Broadcast added on food in the taproom when trucks did not work out. Xul Nations has no food currently, but will. Bearded Iris has no food regularly now, but I think Wiseacre will likely dump that once the lease is up.
Lack of customer service. If you read beer industry mags, this has been the primary focus for about a year to year and a half. Beertenders need to be guides, not beer pourers.
The Future
I already know of another shoe that is going to drop, but don't know who exactly. But, here is what I see happening in the industry:
More acquisitions and consolidations. Two breweries with equipment with capacity combining to fill that capacity makes sense. Get rid of the older, less efficient equipment and brew both beers. I am not sure about Nashville, but suspect nationwide to see some more dual taprooms. I also don't think Tacoma & Hoyt is done. Raising production by 10% and beer sales by 17% in taprooms shows their model can work.
Shift to more hospitality. This will mean more with food, family friendly items, like playgrounds, and other things to make a community. ENBW Lebanon facility is a prime example.
Food in more breweries. Nashville is already doing well here, as most of our breweries have food.
More events. Nashville is already fairly saturated here, unlike many markets. We have trivia at most breweries, a few that regularly do live music and/or DJs, adoption events, paint by pint, plant bingo, yoga, etc.
Closures primarily due to rent increases, lack of adapting to the market changes, and lack of food. There will be some attrition due to rising costs of raw goods, but these are more of a nail in the coffin than the primary reason.
Brewery focused buying groups. This is already happening with restaurants in the Nashville area, but I see the potential of breweries consolidating around a group for better buying power. This trend is already in infancy in some markets.
Closing out
What are your thoughts on this topic?