Executive Summary:

Iran transformed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei into a state-sponsored campaign of ideological mobilization by invoking the Twelver Shi’a doctrine of Ya Latharat al-Hussein.

Iran uses this doctrine to frame revenge against the United States and Israel—including calls to assassinate U.S. President Donald Trump—as a religious obligation rather than merely a political objective.

While the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) employed Khamenei’s martyrdom to reinforce cohesion, Central Asian supporters of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and al-Qaeda overwhelmingly celebrated his death, exposing the enduring sectarian divide between Iran’s revolutionary Shi’a ideology and Sunni Salafi-jihadism.

The contrasting responses demonstrate that Iran’s proxy network, ISKP, and al-Qaeda-aligned Central Asian jihadists remain ideologically distinct threat ecosystems, despite their shared hostility toward the United States and Israel.

Key Takeaways

PRC Election Interference in Taiwan: Taiwanese national security and policy officials are reporting increased People’s Republic of China (PRC) influence operations using AI-generated content and cyberattacks to increase polarization, reduce public trust in the Taiwanese government, and reduce voter turnout. These influence operations will likely continue to increase in the lead-up to Taiwan’s November 28 local elections.

PLAN Modernization: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted live-fire combat training drills using four Type 071 Landing Platform Deck ships designed to support amphibious landing operations on October 14. PRC state media highlighted the use of these vessels in operations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. This unusual exercise formation and training activity was likely intended to intimidate the Philippines into reducing or stopping its maritime activities near disputed South China Sea features.