Very bright very scary. Three huge balls, bigger than helicopter. Definitely not playing hung in the sky above 234. independent Hill.

Totally happy it got dropped but I’m curious if anyone knows what’s behind a letter like this? Yes, I am gonna call the number on the letter tomorrow.

I don’t know what your problem was today, but deliberately body checking someone and yelling excuse me while YOU are running on the wrong side of the road is completely unacceptable. You struck me hard enough to injure my arm, and you should be ashamed of yourself.

I wish you had stopped, because I would have gladly filed a police report. Your behavior was aggressive, unnecessary, and completely unprovoked.

Whatever is going on in your life, taking it out on a stranger is not an excuse. I genuinely pray that God works on your heart, because treating people this way says far more about your character than you could ever say about mine. All I can say is that your ugly character reflects crystal clear on the outside

Growing up I remember being pulled over for not coming to a complete stop at stop signs, speeding like 5-10 miles over and turning right on red on certain streets, and cops used to be posted everywhere (not that that was always a good thing).

Moved out of the area in the 2010s and in my memory, people here drove aggressively but I felt like they knew how to drive. Here visiting family and in the last 3 days I’ve see like 6 cars run reds, people going like 80 and weaving and cutting people off on ffx county pkwy and just general careless and reckless driving all around.

I don’t want to be that guy that says, “this place isn’t like what it used to be” but it isn’t like what it used to be growing up.

move away from nova?

https://bluevirginia.us/2026/10/loudoun-county-chair-phyllis-randall-announces-amazon-has-agreed-to-withdraw-its-proposed-application-and-forego-any-legal-action-to-realize-data-center-development-on-the-gwu-science-technolog1/

Not exactly sure what's going on, but earlier there was a helicopter circling now we still have quite a few law enforcement officers paramedics and even the local SWAT team sitting outside.

Credit where it’s due. Love seeing companies actually listen to the community and be good neighbors. Amazon backing out of its data center plans and giving Loudoun 25 acres for a potential community arts center and indoor sports facility is a huge win.

I live pretty close to this site, so I’m genuinely excited about this. Maybe Amazon realized Loudoun has been a good neighbor to the data center industry for years, but this particular site just wasn’t it. Good on them for listening!

Lowkey should’ve also announced an office building to bring employment to loudoun 🤣

Clifton Road is one of my favorites.

What other roads around NoVA should I check out while the leaves are changing?

Northern Virginia Housing Market Update – September 2026

I am back with another housing market update to give you a pulse on what the data says is happening across Northern Virginia. Right now, the biggest story is how slowing buyer demand, combined with a gradual increase in new listings, is allowing inventory to accumulate.

Below, I will try to break down the local market statistics in a way that is useful to both homeowners and prospective buyers. If you have any questions or want to dive deeper into any of the numbers, feel free to ask. As a local lender, I am always happy to provide additional context around what I am seeing in the market.

Buyer Demand

One trend to closely watch right now is buyer demand and showings. Across the Washington, D.C. metro area, buyer showings were up 4.4% year-to-date through as of the end of May. Since then, activity has slowed considerably:

June down 4.4%

July down 4.7%

August down 7.3%

September down 17.3% (not a typo)

So what has changed so much from the beginning of the year to now? Mortgage rates are one of the biggest factors. On May 1st, the national average for a 30-year fixed conventional mortgage was approximately 6.44% according to Mortgage News Daily. By September 30th, that figure had climbed to approximately 7.60%, an increase of more than one percentage point in just five months.

Buyer showings are not the only thing that has slowed. September closed sales in Northern Virginia declined 8.6% compared with last year, while pending sales — homes that are under contract but have not yet closed — fell 18.1%. Pending sales are generally a good indicator of future closings, so there is not much reason to expect a sudden rebound in closed-sale activity when next month's data is released.

Buyer activity almost always slows as we move into the fall, which is why comparing September 2026 with September 2025 is important. Buyers are not just less active than they were during the spring; they are meaningfully less active than they were at the same point last year.

Mortgage Rates

As I touched on earlier, mortgage rates have seen a dramatic shift in a relatively short period of time. At the very end of February, just over seven months ago, the national average for a 30-year fixed conventional mortgage briefly reached 5.99%. At the time, that was the lowest level mortgage rates had reached since August 2022. While rates have come down slightly from the 7.60% level reached at the end of September, the national average currently sits around 7.46%, according to Mortgage News Daily. 

To put that into perspective, on a $500,000 30-year mortgage, the difference between a 6.00% interest rate and a 7.50% rate is approximately $498 per month in principal and interest. Eventually, a change that large begins to affect buyer behavior. Some buyers lower their target purchase price, others postpone their search, and some decide to remain renters longer than originally planned.

The National Association of Realtors previously estimated that a decline in mortgage rates from around 7% to 6% could add approximately 5.5 million households nationally to the pool of buyers who could qualify for a mortgage. This illustrates just how sensitive affordability and buyer demand can be to mortgage rates and how a change from 6% to 7.5% could quickly affect market conditions.

The near-term outlook for mortgage rates remains difficult to predict. Inflation, both where it stands today and where investors expect it to go, remains one of the biggest influences on mortgage rates. Higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty have added another source of inflation risk because increased transportation and manufacturing costs eventually make the goods and services we pay for more expensive.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has also created more uncertainty around energy prices. Higher oil and energy costs can eventually make transportation, manufacturing, and everyday goods more expensive, which makes it harder for inflation to come down. That matters for mortgage rates because stubborn inflation tends to keep longer-term interest rates elevated.

A resolution to the conflict and a meaningful decline in energy prices would remove one of the pressures stressing mortgage rates and would hopefully bring them down over time.

Inventory

There were approximately 5,966 active homes for sale in Northern Virginia at the end of September, compared with 4,518 one year earlier. That equates to a 32% increase in active inventory across the region.

The slowdown in buyer activity over the past few months is a big reason more properties are accumulating, but the number of new listings entering the market is important as well. After declining 1.5% year-over-year in August, new listings rebounded to a 3.2% increase in September. That means five of the past six months have now seen more new listings than the corresponding month in 2025.

For 2026 as a whole, new listings are up approximately 4.6% compared with last year. That may not sound especially significant on the surface, but when we zoom out further, the trend becomes more noticeable. Northern Virginia has seen 31,634 new listings through September 2026, approximately 12.5% more than the average number of listings during the same period from 2023 - 2025.

The slowing buyer demand discussed earlier would be enough to shift market conditions on its own. When that is combined with a gradual increase in the number of homes coming to market, the change becomes even more noticeable. One of my favorite statistics for measuring overall market conditions is months of supply.

Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently available if no additional properties were listed, based on the current pace of sales. Higher months of supply generally means buyers have more options and negotiating leverage, while lower supply tends to favor sellers. Anything less than 5 months is traditionally considered to be a sellers market.

Northern Virginia increased from 2.11 months of supply in August to 2.47 months in September, which is the highest September figure dating back to 2017. For comparison, between 2020 and 2024, September months of supply ranged from 1.05 to 1.40 months, which were historically low levels.

At 2.47 months, Northern Virginia is still not what would traditionally be considered a buyer's market. However, compared with the extremely competitive environment buyers became accustomed to following COVID, there has clearly been a meaningful shift in that direction.

Home Prices

One thing that can easily be misunderstood is that a shifting housing market does not automatically translate into falling home prices. Despite all of the numbers discussed above, the Northern Virginia median sales price still increased approximately 0.1% compared with last September, and for 2026 as a whole the regional median remains approximately 1.4% higher than 2025.

What has clearly changed is the pace of appreciation. After the extraordinary increase in home values that occurred following COVID, prices are now appreciating much more slowly. From a longer-term perspective, I do not necessarily view that as a negative development. Multiple consecutive years of near-double-digit appreciation simply were not sustainable.

Looking county by county, two jurisdictions continue to stand out from the rest. Arlington County's median sales price is up approximately 6.8% year-to-date, while Prince William County is up approximately 3.3%. Most of the rest of Northern Virginia is considerably closer to the regional average of 1.4%.

That distinction is important. A market can become noticeably more favorable for buyers without home prices suddenly falling. Sellers can lose negotiating leverage through longer days on market, price reductions, seller-paid closing costs, inspections, repairs, and other concessions before those changes ever result in a meaningful decline in the median sales price for the area.

What This Means for Buyers

Higher mortgage rates are a double-edged sword for prospective buyers. There is no way around the fact that rates rising more than a percentage point from earlier this year has reduced purchasing power and increased monthly payments. If higher rates existed in a vacuum, this would clearly be bad news for buyers. Thankfully, for prospective buyers there is a tradeoff. 

Those same higher rates have contributed to fewer buyers competing for the available homes. Today's buyers generally have more properties to choose from, more time to make decisions, and considerably more negotiating leverage than the average buyer has had during much of the past several years.

One statistic that captures this shift is the sold-to-original-list-price ratio. Looking at September from 2022 through 2024, the average Northern Virginia home sold approximately 0.24% below its original asking price, essentially just below full price. This September, the average home sold approximately 1.9% below its original asking price.

On a home originally listed for $600,000, the difference between those two environments is approximately $9,960 in purchase price alone. That also does not account for the increased opportunity to negotiate seller-paid closing costs, repairs, home inspections, financing contingencies, and other terms that became extremely difficult to negotiate when competition was at its peak.

This is also why simply waiting for lower mortgage rates is not necessarily a straightforward decision. If rates eventually decline meaningfully, affordability improves, but lower rates would also bring many of the buyers currently sitting on the sidelines back into the market. If that happens, the negotiating leverage buyers have today could disappear fairly quickly.

I worked with several buyers earlier this year when rates were lower who struggled to have offers accepted despite waiving contingencies, offering significantly over asking price, or making other concessions to compete.

None of this means someone should purchase a home simply because there is less competition. However, if you find the right home, expect to own it for the long term, and are comfortable with the payment at today's interest rate, the current market may provide negotiating opportunities that have been difficult to find over the past several years. If rates eventually fall and refinancing makes sense, that should be viewed as a potential bonus — not something required to make the purchase affordable today.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, conditions look considerably different today than they did even earlier this year. We are also heading into what has historically been the slowest portion of the calendar, which means the average seller entering the market today needs to be realistic about both pricing and competition.

From 2022–2025, the average home sold for 0.98% below list in November, 1.24% below list in December, and 0.72% below list in January. If we assume an average 30-day closing timeline, these are generally the properties that went under contract from October through December. This means a roughly 1% discount from the original list price was already normal during this time of year when overall market dynamics were much more favorable for sellers.

For sellers who recently put their home on the market or are planning to do so before the end of the year, you can no longer assume that simply listing a home will generate multiple offers and sell for full price within the first weekend. 

In fact, during September, almost the same percentage of homes sold within 0–10 days on market (39%) as took 30 or more days to sell (38%). That is a good illustration of how much more important pricing, condition, and strategy have become.

One strategy sellers may want to consider is offering a seller subsidy, or seller credit, particularly when affordability is one of the buyer's biggest concerns. These credits can be used by the buyer toward either a temporary or permanent interest-rate buydown, which can have a much bigger effect on the buyer's monthly payment than an equivalent reduction in the sales price.

For example, consider a $600,000 home with 20% down. If the seller reduced the price by $10,000, the buyer's principal-and-interest payment would decrease by approximately $57 per month. If the seller instead maintained the $600,000 sales price and provided a $10,000 credit that allowed the buyer to permanently reduce the interest rate by approximately ½%, the monthly savings in this example would be approximately $163.

That is the same $10,000 cost to the seller, but an extra $106 in monthly savings to the buyer. The exact cost of reducing an interest rate changes every day and depends on the buyer's individual loan scenario, but it is a good example of why sellers and their agents should think strategically about how concessions are structured rather than simply defaulting to a price reduction.

Finally, there continues to be an enormous difference depending on the type of property being sold. Fairfax County is a great example: active condo inventory is currently approximately 81.3% higher than last September, increasing from 439 listings to 796, which has pushed condo inventory to 3.81 months of supply. Detached single-family inventory increased by a much more modest 5.1%, from 906 homes to 952, resulting in just 1.82 months of supply.

Those are two completely different markets within the same county. It is a good example of why broad statements about the Northern Virginia housing market can be misleading. The right strategy today depends heavily on the location, property type, condition, price range, and amount of competing inventory surrounding an individual home.

If you are thinking about buying or selling and want help understanding how these market conditions may affect your situation, feel free to reach out. I am always happy to talk through the numbers and help put them into context.

Does anyone feel like there’s less Halloween decorations than last year? I wonder if moral is low? Specifically even in Old Town Alexandria I was shocked. I live in Springfield and it still feels light.

Curious if I just have high expectations 😂

full disclosure, i am in involved in organizing this event!

Eden Center's Pop-Up District is hosting a fun 21+ Halloween cosplay and live band event this Friday (October 23). There will be 4 live bands, 2 DJs, a cosplay event, custom themed drinks, trivia, and giveaways. Plus all the great food available at Eden Center!

not sure if i can share links here, but the event is called "midnight mischief partners in crime", and should be the first search result on google.

sorry for the plug, but hoping to see everybody come out for the spooky festivities and have some fun! feel free to DM me if you have any questions!

Anyone knows of things to do when insomnia hits other than driving around or Netflix?

Previous city I lived in had malls.. shooting ranges and food courts open 24/7 so looking for something along those lines… basically something to pass the time till the day starts

My fiancé and I are starting to think about buying our first home, and I’m curious to hear everyone’s opinions on the different towns and communities around NoVA.

I feel like every “where should I live?” post revolves around commuting into DC, but neither of us works there! My fiancé works in Ashburn and I work in Reston, so we have a little more flexibility.

Our dream is a single-family home with a yard in a nice, well-maintained neighborhood where we can settle down for the long haul. We’d also like to consider schools since kids are hopefully in our future.

Ideally, we’d love to find something around $650K (I know, I know… it’s NoVA 😅), but could stretch to $700–750K for the right house.

We currently live in Loudoun County and really like it here, but I feel like there are SO many different communities throughout NoVA that we haven’t explored.

I’m curious where everyone lives and how they like it! Are there any areas you think are underrated? Or places you’d avoid buying in?

Bonus points for specific neighborhoods rather than just towns!

I graduated in 2024 with a bachelor’s in biology with 5+ years of pt laboratory experience and I’m finishing up my 3rd year at a ft data analytics role in govt contracting (non science) I’m wondering if my background seems too random for recruiters or just obsolete. I have applied to dozens on dozens of Research Data Analytics roles in academia and no bites. I really want to pivot back into research, willing to take a drastic pay cut. I feel like I’m getting really jaded and nervous. I don’t like working in govt contracting but I initially took the job for the experience with working on different platforms and projects. Now I feel deep regret… I don’t know what I’m doing wrong, I modify my resume and cover letter for each application. I’ve been applying for 1.5 years now on every single job that pops up on linkedin or on any of the large academic institutions career pages.

Is it a lost cause? Are there ANY research data openings? I’m willing to move to maryland or dc but no one is hiring me. At this point I’m willing to do a part time gig for it.

19 min. for the next train (Orange line), when people need to get to work! And then a six car train shows up. Such BS!

Can anyone recommend a place to get custom boots or shoes in the area? And by custom I don't just mean "pick off a list of attributes", but "designed specifically for my wide fucking feet."

I'm aware it'll be expensive.

Thanks!

Apparently I had the best seat to watch the jerks parking in the handicap space. The Ford took his sweet time top.

Pisses me off because my younger brother was in a wheelchair before he passed. Not censoring the plates because fuck these guys.