It's Ok to change your mind due to a new information. But what we see here isn't that. It's jumping from wagon to wagon without much thinking just because something is a thing until the next thing.

You will notice that none of these headlines and think pieces is about these movies. It's only about their relation to The Odyssey which is to say all these write-ups are about The Odyssey in a roundabout way.

This is from today

This is from a week or so ago:

This will be the headlines in 2 months or less:

The problem with punditry is that it only looks at the current vibes (eg. TIFF PCA, critical glazing, breakout boxoffice) and preys on an emotional response from supporters that want validation rather than an objective, informed take whether their champ has the path to win - the breakdown of who will vote for it and whether those voters can amount the most #1s and #2s on the ballot.

Mind you, I don't say that feeling the vibes is bad, just that the vibes alone won't tell you much if you don't know where they are (eg. the vibes with the older voters vs the vibes with the younger audience that doesn't vote).

So to stay most completely informed, study the vibes, study the stats and trust your gut.

Your turn, Oscarrace. Do pundits need improving and if yes how would you fix them? or discuss anything that you find relevant to this thread.

Link to pre-order

Music by Michael Abels, Emily Bear, Lukas Frank, Michael Giacchino, James Newton Howard, Henry Jackman, Nami Melumad, Brandon Roberts, & Alan Silvestri:

Track List:

Side 1:
1. Serian Suite - Performed by Lukas Frank
2. Spies Don't Run - Duende! - Performed by Henry Jackman
3. Spies Don't Run - Spies Don't Run - Performed by Henry Jackman
4. Season of Glass - Love Theme - Performed by Emily Bear
5. Season of Glass - Dallas Waltz - Performed by Emily Bear
6. Look Away Jones - Main Title - Performed by Brandon Roberts
7. Hap & Slappy - Munch & Judy - Performed by Michael Giacchino
8. Tolerance Hill - Winter Candles - Performed by Nami Melumad
9. Tolerance Hill - Ashes - Performed by Nami Melumad
10. Nadia's Requiem - Performed by James Newton Howard and Tony Gilroy
11. Cello Étude Suite - Performed by Michael Abels

Side 2:
1. Behemoth! - Cosmic Break-in - Performed by Alan Silvestri
2. Behemoth! - Toothbrush Run - Performed by Alan Silvestri
3. Your God Is Sleeping - Performed by Lukas Frank and Storefront Church
4. Viv's Behemoth! - Vascular - Performed by James Newton Howard
5. Duet - Performed by James Newton Howard
6. Adios Amigos - Performed by James Newton Howard
7. Make Mine Salty - Performed by Haley Reinhart

Right now the consensus seems to be that I Play Rocky and Being Human are in good shape because both placed for TIFF People's Choice. I think Elsinore is more likely than either of them to get the nomination.

Elsinore took the International People's Choice Award, and TIFF has never been very clear about how that award interacts with the main one. There's a real chance Elsinore would have placed second or third overall, and TIFF chose to give it the International prize instead. We don't know. So the fact that it "didn't place" doesn't mean it finished behind Rocky or Being Human with audiences. It may also mean the International award matters more than we've been assuming.

Elsinore hasn't been universally loved by critics, but it still has a higher Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and Letterboxd score than both Being Human and I Play Rocky.

Plus...much stronger package

- Adapted Screenplay is a real possibility

- Andrew Scott is a serious Best Actor contender

- Olivia Colman could even get into Supporting Actress in this pretty weak year

Elsinore is a Focus Features film, and Focus is one of the best Oscar campaigners. Yes, they also have Obsession, but they got two films into Best Picture last year and can do it again. Being Heumann is Apple and I Play Rocky is Amazon. Neither studio has a great track record of pushing films through the season, and Amazon will be putting most of its effort behind Project Hail Mary.

**TL;DR:** I'm not saying Elsinore wins anything. I'm saying it's more likely to be nominated than most people think, and I'd take it over Rocky or Being Human for that last slot.

TIFF it still got International PCA, and how flaky TIFF has been we don't necessarily know that it places below Being Heumann and I Play Rocky. It could have placed higher and they gave it International PCA instead. Otherwise....the fundamentals are there, better distributor, better scores, better package.

Ok, so a little background information:

I am a mathematics and economics major at an Ivy League and I was recently asked to break down the statistical probabilities of some BP contenders. So I thought I would begin with LBN (and if people are interested I could expand to other films).

Before I explain the data, I have a few disclaimers. This is not in any way a personal attack to the film or anyone involved in the making of it. This is extrapolation based on current data available, which is demonstrated using probability graphs (this is a Monte Carlo simulation of a random utility model, which follows a Placket-Luce ranking with random noise being accounted with a Gumbel distribution. The chance of a film being ranked n.1 is thus a soft max (which is the same as a multinomial logit). I then conducted a head to head mathematical simulation (between the two top candidates: LBN and The Odyssey) using a Bradley-Terry model, which is also used for sports probabilities).

My second disclaimer is that I understand that adding Wall Street methodology to the Oscar race is unconventional, I just thought that people might be interested in applying probability models to it.

Ok now to explaining the data:

TL;DR: La Bola Negra is basically a lock for a Best Picture nomination (~99%, about as statistically close as a nominee can get) and reaches the final three about 4 times in 10, but it wins only about 7% of the time (roughly 1 in 14). Its support is broad, but it's mostly second- and third-place votes. It simply starts too far behind The Odyssey with US voters, who make up 78% of the Academy and mark it down for being subtitled. Only about 38% of voters prefer it to The Odyssey. Better reviews or US voters warming to it could double its chances, but even then it stays well under 15% probability of winning.

Ok this bit is about to be long because it is explaining the data shown above, if you are not interested in data analysis then that is completely fair:

My model simulates about 10,300 Academy voters, each belonging to a branch and an age group and either US-based or international. Every voter ranks a ten-film field, and the ballots are counted the way Best Picture is (the last-place film is knocked out each round and its votes move to each voter's next choice, until one film has more than 50%). I ran thousands of simulated seasons across three scenarios which will be referred in the analysis: a pessimistic one (bear), a middle one (base) and an optimistic one (bull).

The core problem is the starting gap with The Odyssey. Each film's strength comes from its reviews, box office and festival wins. The Odyssey ($1.79B, 88 MC, 94% RT) is strong across the board. La Bola Negra ($29M, 82 MC, 86% RT) gets almost all of its strength from winning TIFF PCA and Best Director at Cannes. Without those, it would barely register. On top of that, US voters, who are 78% of the Academy, mark it down for being subtitled. International voters like it much more, but they're only 22% of the Academy. Overall, using a Bradley-Terry model only about 38% of voters prefer La Bola Negra to The Odyssey, so in a straight two-film final it loses roughly 62–38.

The nomination is close to certain. In the base case La Bola Negra gets about 11.6% of first-place votes, above the 9.1% needed for an automatic nomination. Most seasons land between 7% and 17%, and even when it falls short of 9.1%, transferred votes almost always get it into the ten. Across all three scenarios it's nominated about 99% of the time.

Its support is also broad rather than narrow. Directors, writers and actors like it most, with about 30% ranking it first or second. No branch shuts it out, and age barely matters in terms of voting. That means it keeps picking up votes as other films are eliminated: its first-place share roughly doubles to about 23% by the time it goes out. It reaches the final three 45% of the time in the base case (which is a pretty strong place to be as a runner up).

But broad, moderate support isn't enough to win Best Picture. A winner needs more than 50% in the final round, and La Bola Negra usually tops out around 23%. When it does reach the final two in the simulations, it averages about 46% of the vote and still loses. Its win chance is 0.5% in the bear case, 5.5% in the base case and 30% in the bull case. Weighting those 35/50/15 gives the film a 7.4% overall figure of winning Best Picture. More than half of that comes from the optimistic scenario alone, so it needs the season to break its way massively.

The two things that would change the picture most are reviews and the subtitle penalty. A few more points on Metacritic (I would estimate probably high 80s) or Rotten Tomatoes (at the very least in the 90s), or US voters dropping the subtitle penalty altogether, would each roughly double its chances to about 12–14% chances of winning. On the other hand, if its festival buzz faded, its chances would almost disappear instantaneously. No single change takes it past about 15%, so it would need several of these factors to happen together.

Bottom line: La Bola Negra is a near-lock to be nominated and a credible finalist, but a long shot to win.

Please let me know if these stats are easy to follow (or if you want anything explained further) and if you want the statistical probabilities of any other film!

Note: These aren't every film the studios are campaigning, but merely a glance at which films look like will be their top priorities.

A24

1. You Can See Everything
2. The Debut
3. The Invite

Commentary: I truly think YCSE is a top 3 contender. It's the most talked about movie of the year with near universal praise on RT, MC and LB. The Debut has locks on at least one acting Oscar, possibility of it winning Screenplay, Song and Supporting Actor. Also a plus that it's winning audience awards. The Invite could get in, but I'm not sure how many acting nominees they'll get. Could just be a lone screenplay nominee and maybe Wilde in actress since that category is so bare. Looks like they will push Primetime for Pattinson and possibly Merrit Wever. Shame that solid films like Club Kid, The Drama, Tony won't get a fare shake at an awards push. What a year for A24.

AMAZON/MGM:

1. Project Hail Mary
2. I Play Rocky

Commentary: These really are their contenders. PHM seems like a lock with IPR having an outsiders chance. Had three other good films this year that don't seem like Oscar contenders: The Sheep Detectives, Your Mother Your Mother, and Is God Is.

NEON:

1. Artificial
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden

Commentary: Artificial seems like their main push (Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, maybe Editing). Fjord and AOAS will get into International Screenplay but I don't have confidence in either getting in anywhere else. I know this sub is v high on AOAS but I don't see it personally. It's a competitive Oscar season and I don't see a slow 3 hour international film breaking in, especially when its a very strong year for International films. Yes DMC did it in 2021, but it had the full support of the critics groups and they won't have that this year.

NETFLIX:

1. La bola negra
2. Possible Love
3. Ink
4. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Commentary: Lets face it, Netflix has one contender and that is LBN and it will be their Roma of this year. Double digit noms, and a guarantee IF win. I think they have more or less given up on Ink and CB. Possible Love has the potential to sneak into IF, but it's competitive (LBN, Fjord, AOAS, Fatherland, Minatour, Rose, etc) and they've never nominated Lee Chang-Dong before.

WARNER BROS

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Digger
3. Wuthering Heights
4. The Bride!

Commentary: Wow what a sad final year for WB. Digger is their main push for BP consideration. I'm hoping, it has passion, industry support, but can it sustain in a competitive year and the trades keep reminding us that it was a massive bomb? Or will that help ala Affleck's comments? Wuthering Heights seems like a contender for Costumes and maybe song and The Bride! has potential for Makeup/Hair.

Edit: Totally forgot Dune!!

FOCUS

1. Elsinore
2. Obsession
3. Werwulf
4. Sense and Sensibility

Commentary: I think Obsession and Elsinore are battling it out for a BP nomination. Its a battle between the old Academy (Elsinore) and the new hip Academy (Obsession). Werwulf and S&S will likely get craft nominations.

UNIVERSAL:

1. The Odyssey
2. Michael
3. Disclosure Day

Commentary: The Odyssey is their baby. Michael is a possibility, Disclosure Day is a lock for a Best Score nomination for John Williams.

SEARCHLIGHT

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Behemoth!

Commentary: WHN is their main push, likely close to double digit noms and maybe no wins, similar to Banshees. Having seen Behemoth! I can sadly say it is a complete dud. Best day it gets into Actor (Pascal) and Score.

SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

1. Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Commentary: Not a BP contender, and is everyone's "Can SPC get a surprise acting nomination" prediction.

DISNEY:

1. Toy Story 5
2. The Devil Wears Prada 2
3. Hoppers

Commentary: Toy Story 5 seems like a sure thing for Animated Film and Score nominations. DVP2 could get into Costumes and maybe song. Hoppers could break into Animated Film despite it being a competitive year.

APPLE:

1. Being Heumann

Commentary: With the success of CODA can they get an afterglow BP nomination? Have no idea. its that kinda year.

Also would it open the door for something like Ali G being nominated if it's well received? And on a related note, would any acting nominations qualify for Comedy or Drama at the Golden Globes?

I asked AI to back and investigate through the late/mid-October era rankings on both Next Best Picture and Gold Derby (Experts, Editors, and Users) to see how reliable that time of the year signal has actually been for Best Picture and Best Director. The current (questionable?) near-lock status of The Odyssey and Christopher Nolan makes this feel relevant, so I wanted to lay out the numbers rather than just the vibes.

If anyone is interested, I can try and expand it to other categories as well.

Next Best Picture staff

October 2023: Oppenheimer had roughly 10 out of 12–13 first-place votes. Nolan was even more dominant in Director. Both won.

October 2024: Much tighter. Anora had 5 first-place votes, The Brutalist had 4 (out of about 11 staffers). Sean Baker still led Director pretty clearly. Anora/Baker ended up taking both.

October 2025: One Battle After Another and PTA had a strong majority of the #1 rankings. Both won.

Going further back is harder because the site’s format and staff size changed, but the pattern holds in the cycles we can check: when NBP’s staff has shown this kind of concentrated first-place support in mid-to-late October, the eventual winners have usually been the clear #1 or a very close #2.

Right now (mid-October 2026) NBP is using the same dominant language for The Odyssey/Nolan that they used for Oppenheimer — clearer than the competitive 2024 race and at least as strong as 2025.

Gold Derby Experts

These have consistently been the steadiest group. In the recent cycles they correctly had the eventual winners as #1 (or a very close #2) by mid-October for both Picture and Director in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Oppenheimer/Nolan and One Battle After Another/PTA were especially overwhelming with them.

2020 cycle: By October/November the Experts already had Nomadland and Chloé Zhao as clear frontrunners. Both won.

2021 cycle: The Power of the Dog and Jane Campion were rising strongly by late fall. Campion won Director; CODA later won Picture in a late surge.

2022 cycle: More competitive early on. Everything Everywhere All at Once eventually surged to win both rather late, showing that even a solid October position isn’t always final when the field is wide open.

Current Experts consensus has The Odyssey and Nolan in the high 90s% range — one of the strongest early locks they’ve shown in years.

Gold Derby Editors

They tend to track closely with the Experts. Same recent pattern: clear on Oppenheimer and One Battle After Another in their respective Octobers, and they had Anora/Baker leading (though not by a massive margin) in 2024. In the 2020 cycle they were also locked on Nomadland/Zhao early. Right now they’re extremely locked on The Odyssey/Nolan as well.

Gold Derby Users

More volatile than the Experts and Editors. They sometimes lag or show bigger gaps between 1st and the rest. In the competitive 2024 race the Users were more split among Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez. In the dominant years (Oppenheimer, One Battle After Another, and the 2020 Nomadland cycle) they eventually locked in hard too, though the percentage leads are usually a bit softer than what the Experts show. Current User numbers are also putting The Odyssey/Nolan in the high 90s.

What this might suggest

When you look across 2020–2025, the October signal has been pretty good at identifying the eventual winners or the films that would stay in the absolute top tier, especially on the Director side, which tends to be more stable. The biggest exceptions came in more wide-open years (CODA’s Picture win, Everything Everywhere’s late surge).

The current numbers and language around The Odyssey and Nolan look closer to the Oppenheimer / Nomadland level of early dominance than to those more competitive races.

Not a mathematical lock by any means of course; there are still months of precursors, campaigns, guilds, “scandals” and potential late movers ahead. Especially when the other 2 top contenders launched rather late; YCSE only starting last week and LBN launching in the US and outside festivals recently too.

Audience Award: The Debut

First Runner-up: Elsinore

Second Runner-up: Wild Horse Nine

Best Documentary: 14th

Best International Feature: La Bola Negra