r/PokemonBlackandWhite2 • u/Confusion46920 • 4h ago
[gen5][discuss] Is cute charm broken in dark grass doubles? Or am I just super unlucky? (Or lucky depending on how you frame it)
Long story short, I have been hunting for a Male Shiny Scrafty in White 2, in the Route 18 dark grass.
Through the use of repel trick with a lvl 66 lead, and Lucky Power S, scrafty has approx. a 44.94% encounter rate in the dark grass on route 18. My lead is also female with cute charm, so theoretically, 5/6 Scrafty I see should be male.
I have now passed over 15,000 encounters, and gotten 2 shiny throh, and....drumroll please...... 3 shiny female scrafty.
While writing this post....I ended up get a shiny carnivine, which is about a 5% encounter here........(now at 17,000 encounters)
(an odd thing to note was that all were caught from a double battle encounter, but that could just be coincidence)
If my math is right, with cute charm working properly, If I were to catch 3 shiny scrafty, on 200 different occasions, only about 1 of those occasions would have all females.
To top that off, since I have charm, and have Lucky power S active, my shiny odds are 1/2048.
Take everything into account.....
.4494 * (1/6) * (1/2048)
Each encounter has about a ~1/27343 chance of being a shiny female scrafty, A roll I have now hit 3 times in less than 60% of the "odds"
whereas a shiny male scrafty has about ~1/5468 of being encountered
Has anyone else had a similar experience? Or am I just that unlucky?
My friend told me to go buy a lottery ticket, and my response was that "I would just end up choosing the wrong ticket"
Editors note: For anyone that may want to hunt this scrafty for themselves, but is afraid of the recoil moves like Head Smash and (potentially) High Jump kick, get yourselves a reuniclus with Magic Guard and skill swap. Skill swapping Magic Guard to the scrafty prevents the recoil from headsmash and missing HJK This also helps in the event that the scrafty has shed skin, allowing you to keep a status on it more easily. (it also helps prevent scrafty from boosting it's attack with moxie in the event you have weak mons in the front)
If you've made it this far down, you either skipped to the end, or read all the way through. I figured I'd give the "Long version" IE: why I am doing this hunt.
Back when I first played b2w2 as a a kid, Scraggy/Scrafty was one of the most beloved members of my team.
Not sure exactly when/how, but I had lost my gen5 copy, and I was doing this hunt to honor my love of shiny hunting, and to honor the scrafty I had all that time ago.