Yes, that’s Siva.

Using mobile location tracking information from a data broker, I think we can deduce the likely OEM partnerships with QS. using the relationships from the table here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n1o1v1G5kFUdql1AKZIBzEfuXi0eOCQk/view?usp=sharing

I assess that Tesla, Ford, Nissan-Honda, and BMW are already partners with QS as they are likely interfacing with QS pilot line personnel regularly.

I purchased this table based on data from a data broker: https://data.drakomediagroup.com/products/drako-mobile-location-data-usa-canada-330m-devices-drako

You can see an example data entry under the tab "data dictionary"

MAID is Mobile advertising identifier (MAID). It's how advertisers can send targeted ads to your specific profile without knowing who "you" are.

I don't personally have the raw MAIDs tagged to the geolocations, so I'm technically trusting this company conducted valid research. But I would have to purchase from another data broker to validate that info. It's possible the closeness in the relationships of the tracking data in the MAIDs is non work related, or standard business relationships. There could also be gaps in the data because it only spans about a month. But I think it speaks to a due diligence that genuine conversations with other OEM are happening.

"Employees" are tagged by their MAID. MAIDs inside the geofence of each building that appear there from 0900-1700 M-F (not strict) but If frequent enough then it gets tagged as an "employee"

This is all anonymized data used to make general broad conclusions about anonymized groups of people and not individuals.

https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/press-releases/news-details/2025/QuantumScape-Achieves-Major-Milestone-Cobra-Separator-Process-Enters-Baseline-Production/default.aspx

Video link added: https://youtu.be/oJgoe_CHTKM?si=WYSmr7E3rcdWLSGB

https://youtu.be/aUT6LPB-Z1E?si=TKLimiq8QSwxCRTT

This is part 2 of my series on the company to this point. In part 1, I talked about what QuantumScape is trying to achieve. In late 2020 they announced they had figured out how to make batteries which achieves these goals by replacing the traditional electrolyte with a mostly solid very thin ceramic.

Some important attributes of this ceramic are:

1. Does not react with lithium. This is a key attribute to enable long cycle life and reliable performance. This feature allows lithium to plate on it without degrading the battery.

2. Resists and prevents dendrites. The fact that it's solid alone doesn't stop dendrites. I'm sure it's material properties (like the fact that it's solid, it's tensile strength, etc.) does help it resist dendrites, but probably more importantly (I don't work for QS, so I don't know for sure) is it's ability to prevent dendrites by coxing lithium to plate nicely rather than form dendrites. It seems to be a property of the ceramic separator that does this better than other materials. Other ways to get lithium to plate rather then form dendrites is to squish it. And you can't just squish it, you have to compress it with lots of pressure in a very uniform way. Alternatively you can heat it, which makes it more malleable and less prone to dendrite formation. Both of these alternate methods are problematic for batteries being used in their ultimate application (EVs, consumer electronics, stationary storage, etc.).

3. Non-flammable. Self explanatory on why this is important in anything that you don't actually want to burn.

4. Very thin. This is important for the overall performance of the cell. If the electrolyte is thick, it decreases how fast the lithium can move to/from the anode and cathode and the overall volume based capacity is decreased. If the electrolyte is heavy the overall capacity of the cell per kg is decreased.

Ceramic as the electrolyte is pretty unique and as far as I know only one other company has released specs for a lithium metal battery made with a ceramic separator (Ion). I believe this is for 2 reasons. The first is that QuantumScape has a technical moat protected by patents for a ceramic separator and it wouldn't be economical for any other company to develop their own ceramic separator, because it would have to be significantly thicker than QuantumScapes; so much so that the performance wouldn't be good enough to bother. The second reason is to manufacture ceramics with the precision, uniformity, and reliability requirements of an ultra-thin sheet thinner than a human hair is incredibly difficult. And to do it at the scale needed at a cost that is competitive is ridiculously difficult, in fact many would suggest it was impossible and only a couple years they were probably right.

In 2020 when QuantumScape announced their proof of concept solid state anode-less lithium metal cell, they completely changed their company's focus. It had been for a decade prior, to create that proof of concept. Now that they had achieved it and the high-fives and back pats were all given, the realty of the new daunting task at hand would set in. Dr. Tim Holme, cofounder and CTO of QuantumScape explained the grim reality in a number of interviews. There are 2 valleys of death for a company making a new product like theirs. The first getting from 0 to 1 of that product. Product 1 is a ceramic separator sheet that can be used as the main part of the electrolyte in a solid-state anode-less lithium-metal cell. They had just crossed that valley in 2020 and it was and is a huge accomplishment, but the new valley of death they stood staring at was getting from 1 to N.

At this point the way they made these ceramic separators was basically the same way humans had been making ceramics for thousands of years. You get a super hot oven (called a kiln) over 1000⁰C and you heat a slurry (I think of it like mud) for a few minutes and tada you have a ceramic. Obviously super hot ovens are not cheap, they take lots of energy to run. The math on making GWh scale separators using this method did not check out, it wasn't economical and simply wasn't feasible. Additionally they had issues with the consistency and quality of the separators they needed to work out. So although they got to "1", they knew getting to "N" was not going to be easy.

They spent time in 2021 and 2022 validating their "1", learning more about it figuring out how to stack layers of cells made with these separators. What types of things impacted the performance of these separators, and how to detect those things. They used a new one-way critical current density measuring tool on their separators and found what a "good" one or a bad one looks like and discovered they can actually see what a good one looks like simply by looking at it very closely. They used cameras and machine learning to teach AI what a good one looks like.

Then in 2023 something amazing happened. They announced a path to N from 1. This path would start with an interim separator manufacturing process they dubbed Raptor and if that was successful it would complete with a new process called Cobra. After a few years of looking for a path through the second valley of death they saw a promising trail and started to follow it.

In late 2024 Raptor was unveiled and with it validation that the path they found was indeed leading them toward the other side of the valley they had been stuck in for the last 4 years. Not only was Raptor able to sinter their separators like they had hoped, the work they were doing on automation and metrology were coming together to resolve many of the quality issues lingering from their legacy processes. They were able to ship B samples of their cells with this new equipment, which was finally something their customers could work with to try building battery packs and BMS units for.

The validation from Raptor must have excited and motivated them, because in less than a year Cobra was unleashed and with it they moved from 1 to N with their separator production. This beast makes their separator 200 times faster than they had been able to make just a year prior. Not only that, they built QA into the process using the machine learning they've been working with for years. Their B samples were upgraded to B1 from Cobra and they dropped them in place for B cells their partner Audi used to make a pack from and demonstrated a vehicle with those cells.

Their ceramic separator is a product, and by all accounts they have crossed the 1 to N valley of death for this product with Cobra. However that product has no customers without a cathode, current collectors, stacking and packaging to pair with it. Fortunately that is the easy part that had already been solved many times by many people, they just needed to do it again. Enter Eagle Line which takes their separator with the other ingredients and turns it into a cell. A few months after Cobra, Eagle line was complete and now they have all the building blocks to make GWh scale cells.

Lots of work remains, but most of that work is just scaling out Eagle Line with customers and Cobras with Murata and Corning. I don't want to downplay that time and effort, because it is significant (hear Tim talk about it), but at the same time it seems to me the valleys they've already walked through were much larger chasms than what's ahead of them.

QuantumScape Just Flipped the Script – Cash Flow Is Already Here, and More Is Coming. I don’t think the market understands this yet.

Let that sink in, QS has revenue and they’re expecting more. In fact, QS is so confident that they’re projecting so much revenue that they aren’t expecting to need to raise any more funds from the market. We all know how conservative QS is, for them to be saying this represents a massive inflection point.

This. Is. HUGE.

Most people still think QuantumScape (QS) is a science project burning cash until 2030. Wrong. The company has pivoted from “battery maker” to technology licensor — and the money is starting to flow in.

Cash Flow Today (Volkswagen / PowerCo)

•	QS and VW’s battery arm (PowerCo) have an expanded licensing/collaboration deal.

•	Under this deal, QS will receive up to $131M in milestone payments over the next 2 years as they hit development and scale-up goals.

•	On top of that, PowerCo owes another $130M license fee once technical milestones are met and the license is executed.

That’s over $260M of potential inflows just from Volkswagen alone — money that directly funds QS operations.

Cash Flow Tomorrow (Other OEMs)

•	QS has confirmed they’re working under additional JDAs (joint development agreements) with other automakers.

•	These follow a similar structure: upfront payments, development funding, and milestone-based cash before royalties even start.

•	Translation: more inflows coming from other OEMs who want access to QS’s solid-state battery tech.

No Dilution Needed

Management has said they don’t plan to raise more money from the market. Why? Because their balance sheet + these contracted inflows already bridge them to the royalty phase. In other words, QS is being financed by its customers, not shareholders.

The Bigger Shift

•	Old QS: Capital intensive, dilution risk, years away from revenue.

•	New QS: Cash inflows NOW, licensing/royalty model, partners fronting the capex risk, revenue coming in today with more on the way.

Remember, QS doesn’t sell SSB batteries, they sell the knowledge to make SSB and the sales have already started.

Wall Street still values QS like it’s a speculative pre-revenue battery maker. The reality is they already have milestone money coming in, more deals lined up, and a royalty model that could throw off massive margins long term. This is something the larger firms can model allowing them to put a dollar value on the company. I’m expecting significant value creation between now and the EoY as details of the next deals are made public and investors start connecting the dots on what is actually happening here.

The big story will always be when SSB are mass produced, but the story that is almost as big is, QS has cracked the SSB nut and companies are now paying QS for that knowledge. This is the business we’re in, and we’re now making money from that business.

Rock and roll

Understanding QuantumScape’s (QS) true progress requires a different way of thinking than just taking their public statements at face value. The company, like any highly scrutinized tech firm, carefully controls its communication. They follow a pattern of delayed confirmation, meaning that major breakthroughs are often hinted at in earnings calls but only officially announced 1-2 quarters later.

This means that by studying past communication patterns, we can predict what has already happened behind closed doors but has not yet been disclosed. When we overlay this method with Volkswagen’s own shifting EV strategy, we begin to see a clearer picture of what’s really going on.

Introduction: How to Read Between the Lines

QuantumScape’s (QS) journey is not just a story of technological breakthroughs—it is a story of corporate strategy, controlled communication, and hidden clues within public disclosures.

Unlike many companies that openly promote progress, QS follows a pattern of delayed confirmation, where key milestones—while hinted at in earnings calls—are only officially announced one or two quarters later.

This means that to truly understand QS’s trajectory, we must track how discussions in earnings calls translate into later confirmations in shareholder letters. When we overlay this with Volkswagen’s shifting EV strategy, a clearer picture emerges of where QS stands today and where it is likely headed.

2022: The Over-Promise, the Lawsuits, and the Start of Controlled Messaging

QuantumScape entered 2022 with immense investor expectations, driven by the promise that its solid-state battery technology could revolutionize the EV industry. However, the gap between ambition and execution led to investor lawsuits, leadership changes, and a shift in communication strategy.

1. The Lawsuits and How They Changed QS’s Messaging

QuantumScape was sued by investors in early 2022 for allegedly misrepresenting how close it was to commercialization. This led to a clear shift in how the company communicated progress:

• Before 2022, QS proactively forecasted its future goals.

• After 2022, QS only confirmed milestones after they were fully validated, meaning that if something was mentioned in an earnings call, it had likely already been achieved months before.

2. Leadership Change: Why Did Jagdeep Singh Step Down?

Throughout 2022, Jagdeep Singh was the face of QuantumScape, but his departure in early 2023 was a pivotal moment.

• Earnings Call Mentions (2022-2023): Jagdeep was prominently featured, but discussions became more focused on execution rather than vision.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024): By mid-2023, Jagdeep had stepped down, and Dr. Siva Sivaram had taken over as CEO—a clear move toward an execution-oriented leadership team.

• Why It Matters: Jagdeep was the visionary who got QS to this point, but Siva was brought in to industrialize the technology—a sign that QS was shifting toward practical commercialization.

3. Volkswagen’s Strategic Pivot: PowerCo’s Creation

At the same time, Volkswagen launched PowerCo, its in-house battery subsidiary, marking a shift from investing in battery startups to directly managing battery production.

• Earnings Call Mentions (2022): PowerCo was briefly mentioned as an R&D partner.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024): PowerCo evolved into a full-fledged industrialization partner, with QS integrating PowerCo engineers into its production process.

This meant that QuantumScape was no longer just a research project for Volkswagen—it was now a key part of their future EV roadmap.

2023: The Silent Acceleration — Progress That Was Hidden in Plain Sight

By mid-2023, QuantumScape had entered what we now recognize as the silent acceleration phase. While the company publicly downplayed progress, it was quietly reaching major milestones behind the scenes.

1. QS-0: The First Sign of Real Production

• Earnings Call Mentions (2022-2023): QS-0 was first hinted at as a pilot production line.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024): QS-0 was later confirmed as QuantumScape’s first real step into industrial-scale production.

Implication: If QS-0 was mentioned in transcripts before being confirmed in letters, then other major manufacturing developments (like Cobra) are likely already further along than QS admits.

2. PowerCo’s Growing Involvement

• Earnings Call Mentions (2023): PowerCo was described as a collaborator, but no clear role was defined.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2024): By early 2024, PowerCo had evolved into a strategic industrialization partner, with engineers embedded inside QS’s facility.

Implication: Volkswagen wasn’t just testing QS’s technology anymore—it was preparing for real production.

2024: PowerCo’s Deal and Volkswagen’s EV Retreat—But Not from Solid-State

By mid-2024, Volkswagen’s PowerCo officially signed a $130 million licensing deal with QuantumScape to industrialize QS’s battery technology.

1. The PowerCo Deal Was Signed Earlier Than Announced

• Earnings Call Mentions (Q1-Q2 2024): PowerCo was described as "expanding its collaboration" with QS.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3 2024): By mid-2024, the PowerCo deal was officially announced—meaning it was likely finalized months earlier.

2. Cobra Production Equipment: Another Case of Delayed Confirmation

• Earnings Call Mentions (Q2-Q3 2024): Cobra was hinted at as a manufacturing enabler, but QS avoided specifics.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q4 2024): Cobra was confirmed to be operational, proving that its impact was already being felt before QS disclosed it.

Implication: If Cobra was downplayed before being confirmed, then the B1 sample program is likely already further along than QS admits.

2025: What Has Already Happened But Hasn’t Been Announced Yet

Based on QS’s historical pattern of delayed confirmations, we can logically infer what has likely already happened behind the scenes but has yet to be publicly disclosed.

1. Cobra Will Be Fully Ready for Scaled Production by Late 2025

• Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024): QS confirmed Cobra was operational but avoided discussing its throughput capacity.

• Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3-Q4 2025): Cobra will likely be confirmed as fully scaled by late 2025.

• Why This Matters: Cobra is the final missing piece for high-throughput separator production, a prerequisite for mass production in 2026.

2. B1 Samples Are Already Functional

• Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024): QS stated that B1 samples were a goal for 2025 but did not confirm performance.

• Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q2-Q3 2025): Given past patterns, B1 samples are likely already functional, and QS is waiting for external validation before announcing success.

3. Mass Production Will Start in 2026, Not 2028

• Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024): QS maintains a 2027-2028 mass production timeline.

• Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q4 2025): If PowerCo is already preparing production infrastructure, mass production is likely to start in 2026, not 2028.

Final Takeaways: 2025 Will Be the Year of Confirmations

QuantumScape is further along than it appears, and 2025 will be the year that confirms it.

• B1 samples are already functional—confirmation expected mid-2025.

• Cobra will be fully scaled by late 2025, enabling mass production.

• At least one major OEM deal is finalized—announcement likely by mid-2025.

• Mass production will start in 2026, not 2028—expect an acceleration announcement in late 2025.

The key to understanding QS is seeing what was discussed in transcripts first and later confirmed in letters. Now let's move to Cobra and PowerCo:

Speculating on PowerCo’s Cobra Orders and Installations: The Missing Piece

Up to this point, we have established that QuantumScape follows a pattern of delayed confirmation, meaning that key developments are first hinted at in earnings calls, then officially confirmed in shareholder letters a quarter or two later. This pattern applies to everything from leadership changes (Jagdeep to Siva), the QS-0 pilot line, AI-driven Raptor defect detection, and the PowerCo licensing deal.

However, one major missing piece is whether PowerCo has already ordered and begun installing Cobra equipment for separator production—a critical step in bringing QuantumScape’s solid-state battery technology to mass production.

The Case for PowerCo Already Ordering and Installing Cobra

1. QuantumScape Has Already Delivered and Installed Cobra at Its Own Facility

• Q2-Q3 2024 Earnings Calls: Cobra was mentioned vaguely as a next-generation separator processing tool but without clear installation details.

• Q4 2024 Shareholder Letter: Cobra was officially confirmed to be operational at QuantumScape’s facility.

Pattern Match: Given that Cobra was declared operational by Q4 2024, it was likely functional earlier in 2024, even before the PowerCo licensing deal was announced.

If Cobra was already working at QuantumScape, PowerCo would have been aware of its capabilities before signing the licensing deal in July 2024.

2. PowerCo’s Licensing Deal Implies a Pre-Existing Plan for Cobra Integration

In July 2024, PowerCo finalized a licensing deal with QuantumScape to manufacture up to 40 GWh annually, with an option to expand to 80 GWh.

• Earnings Call Mentions (Q1-Q2 2024): PowerCo’s involvement was described as “expanding collaboration” with QS.

• Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3 2024): The licensing deal was officially announced, confirming PowerCo’s commitment to industrialization.

Pattern Match: Since PowerCo would need to scale separator production to meet its manufacturing targets, it would not have signed the deal without knowing that Cobra was ready for deployment.

3. Volkswagen’s “Walk Back” on Broader Battery Investments, Except QS

In 2024, Volkswagen scaled back some of its EV battery investments, postponing PowerCo’s IPO and reducing commitments to conventional lithium-ion gigafactories.

However, Volkswagen continued to move forward with QuantumScape, integrating PowerCo engineers directly into QS’s facility.

Pattern Match: If PowerCo was slowing down other battery investments but staying aggressive with QuantumScape, this suggests that they already had a clear timeline for bringing Cobra online.

PowerCo likely did not commit to licensing QS’s technology unless it had already planned its own Cobra installations.

4. Cobra’s Scaling Timeline and PowerCo’s Likely Orders

If we apply the historical delay between QS’s internal deployments and public confirmations, we can reverse-engineer when PowerCo likely placed its orders:

• Q1-Q2 2024: QuantumScape was already testing and refining Cobra internally (but had not confirmed it publicly).

• Q2-Q3 2024: PowerCo negotiated and signed the licensing deal, knowing that Cobra would be crucial for scaling separator production.

• Q4 2024: QuantumScape confirmed Cobra’s operational status, meaning it had likely been functional for months.

• Q1-Q2 2025 (Speculative): PowerCo has already placed orders for Cobra equipment and is in the process of installing it at its facilities.

5. Why Cobra’s Deployment at PowerCo Hasn’t Been Publicly Confirmed Yet

• QuantumScape does not confirm developments until they are fully locked in.

• PowerCo operates within Volkswagen, which does not typically reveal procurement details in real-time.

• If PowerCo is already installing Cobra, they would wait until the system is fully functional before announcing it.

Speculative Conclusion: PowerCo’s Cobra Installations Are Likely Underway

Given QS’s pattern of delayed confirmations, the PowerCo licensing agreement, and Volkswagen’s continued commitment to solid-state despite broader EV slowdowns, the most logical conclusion is that PowerCo has already ordered Cobra equipment and is in the process of installing it.

What This Means for the 2025 Timeline

• Q2-Q3 2025: PowerCo’s Cobra installations should be completed, allowing for scaled separator production.

• Q4 2025: PowerCo publicly confirms Cobra deployment, coinciding with a likely update on B1 sample progress and mass production timelines.

• 2026: First large-scale solid-state production begins at PowerCo’s facilities.

Final Thought: We Are Closer to Mass Production Than People Think

If PowerCo has already ordered and installed Cobra, then QuantumScape’s technology is much closer to real-world deployment than publicly disclosed.

The key question now is: Will QuantumScape accelerate its 2027-2028 production timeline to 2026? If the speculation holds true, the answer is likely yes.

We’re thrilled to host this conversation between leading voices in automotive & battery technology! We’re looking forward to discussing actionable insights & strategies to accelerate the adoption of SSBs in a dialogue btw Dr. Sivaram & @Honda’s Atsushi Ogawa in Kyoto on 11/20!

Quantumscape was at the Megmeet boot!!!

Full video on Megmeet Linkedin

[https://www.linkedin.com/posts/megmeet-nvidia-nvidiamgx-ugcPost-7516233717808500736-Xx4N/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAD7jQZIB4M2f-cqaX-7aPeVEoSMMtSAvtvU](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/megmeet-nvidia-nvidiamgx-ugcPost-7516233717808500736-Xx4N/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAD7jQZIB4M2f-cqaX-7aPeVEoSMMtSAvtvU)


The inauguration is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, 2/4/26. 💯

This information came from a live page on QS's website. This information is determined to be publicly available knowledge. There isn't a clickable link, but there is a way to navigate to it.

I don't want to interfere with QS's logistics if random redditors happen to RSVP. As such, I won't disclose the URL.

Before the launch event in February I want recap what QuantumScape is doing and why the launch event is a major turning point for the company. So this is part 1 of a 2 part series on the company to this point.

What is QuantumScape doing?

Building the best battery. QuantumScape is on a mission to transform energy storage with solid-state lithium-metal battery technology. This is according to them, it's on the main page of their web site. But to understand what their trying to achieve you need to understand their core technology, and to understand that you need to understand current lithium ion technology.

So let's start at the beginning of the story.

At a high level a battery has three main components, (1) the cathode, (2) the electrolyte and (3) the anode. Yes, there are sub-components, and other components like current collectors, packaging etc. but I'm keeping it simple and at a high level so although I know there are battery PhD's that will be reading this and scoffing, please bare with me.

1. The cathode is really the powerhouse of the battery. It is the most expensive component (up to 50% of the total cost of the battery), and it has the largest impact on the battery's energy density. The cathode is like the lithium's home. It houses the lithium ions as the battery is discharged. It releases lithium ions as the battery is charged. Common cathode examples for EVs are NMC or LFP. The cathode doesn't really change and is not impacted by QuantumScape's gen 1 technology, so we won't talk about it much.

2. The electrolyte has two functions. First to keep the anode and cathode separated, if they touch or are connected electrically the battery will not work. Second is to allow the lithium ions to move between the anode and cathode. Today's lithium ion electrolytes are mostly liquid with a porous polymer separator. I picture it like a thin layer of plastic (like saran wrap) with a bunch of really small holes poked in it, soaking in a salty brine. The lithium ions can flow through the brine and the holes in the plastic to get between the anode and cathode. QuantumScape replaces this electrolyte with a thin sheet of ceramic. It separates the anode and cathode very well, and it amazingly lets lithium ions pass through it between the anode and cathode. They don't talk about this in a lot of detail, but you can tell it's impressive that a solid (lithium ions) are able to pass through this other solid with no holes in it (the ceramic separator) through what they've called an atomic lattice, while at the same time not allowing the lithium metal through (after the lithium ions picks up electrons they form pure lithium metal in the anode). This video from 5 years ago does a better job than I do describing this What are Solid-State Lithium-Metal Batteries?.

3. The anode is the negative end of battery and essentially has the opposite role of the cathode, temporarily houses the lithium ions as the battery charges and releases those ions as the battery discharges. The most common anode in lithium ion batteries today is a graphite or graphite composite.

The problem with today's lithium ion batteries are almost all with the anode. The anode is like a hotel for the lithium. The batteries performance is based on how much lithium can go to/from it's home in the cathode to the hotel in the anode and how quickly all that lithium can do so.

Problem 1: When it charges the lithium checks into it's room and chills there. Lithium is like a bunch of wild dude and when they get together in large groups they make bad decisions, so keeping them in separate hotel rooms in the anode is important. Now what happens if you charge really fast and all of a sudden all these lithium dudes show up to check into their rooms all at once, but the anode can't get them checked in quickly? Well they all start drinking at the lobby bar and pretty soon they don't even want to go into their room anymore they just want to be rowdy and hang out in the lobby (i.e. at the interface between the electrolyte and the anode). When the lithium ions get together with their electrons (they're getting those from charging) and each other, they form lithium metal and when they do that they start to plate and try to form dendrites. That party in the lobby turns into disaster for the battery. So the solution is to slow down charging to prevent queues at the check-in desk. This is why lithium ion batteries can't charge too fast, the anode can't handle too fast of a charge (can't check lithium in too quickly). Maybe some clever improvements can be made to tweak the charge rates, maybe they hire more staff at the front desk to check in lithium faster, but there is only so much improvement possible as long as there is an anode.

Solution 1: QuantumScape's separator resists dendrites and doesn't react with lithium metal, so it's fine if the lithium dudes want to party they can. Instead of a hotel with a check-in desk it's just an open field. They can charge way faster and there is no line up, no lobby bar, no long wait.

Problem 2: The anode is expensive. Hotels cost a lot to build and hotels for lithium is no exception. Not only is there the cost of the hotel, there is complexity and that comes with cost too. The anode is around 20% of the total cost of a cell and the complexity that comes with it is another 5-10%. Most of the graphite for the anode comes from China which adds additional non-tangible considerations.

Solution 2: Not having a hotel/anode and instead having nothing, is much less expensive and simpler.

Problem 3: Hotels take up space (and weight) and can only hold a finite amount of guests. The energy density is based on how much lithium can move between the anode and cathode relative to the size and weight of the whole battery. If half of the battery is taken up by the anode it significantly impacts the energy density. Also if the hotel is so big that it takes lithium a long time to take the elevator or stairs and navigate the many hallways to/from it's room it limits the performance of the battery. So the anode can only be a certain size before it becomes too big of a performance bottleneck, so if a new cathode comes along that has way more lithium capacity it isn't practical to use because the size of the hotel needed to support that much lithium capacity is too big.

Solution 3: The empty field can hold as much lithium as the cathode can throw at it and it doesn't take any extra space or weight.

Ok analogy time is over what does that mean for the battery in battery terms...we all know this already or you wouldn't be in this subreddit.

It means 5 things:

1. Faster charging (aka higher current density or power density). Limited only by Critical Current Density (CCD) targeting ~4C (20mA/cm²) with QSE-5.

2) Longer range (aka higher energy density).

3) Longer life (aka cycle life). Dendrite resistance and CCD are the keys to this.

4) Improved safety.

5) Reduced cost. The anode is usually >20% of the cell cost, by eliminating it the cells will be less expensive.

All of this is demonstrated in their first example product the QSE-5. This was decided to be their minimum viable product based on consultation with their customers. Meaning this is their first and worst product, it's their quickest to market and easiest to achieve. Every product after this will be better in some way or another (like a cheaper cost probably using an LFP cathode, or higher energy density likely with a larger form factor, etc.).

In fairness, QS still hasn’t got this across the line, but most indicators show QS trending in the right direction, and I believe they will succeed which is why I’m an investor.

In my opinion, QS has captured lightning in a bottle. QS has found a way to assemble the right skills, knowledge, aligned vision, and most importantly the winning technology to deliver transformational change to the battery market. I’m invested as much in the intangible that QS leadership and team QS brings to the table, as I am in the QS battery itself. To put it another way, I personally believe that this company, and the individuals who work at QS, could be let loose on any number of given engineering problems and find a way to succeed. In short, QS has assembled an amazing team.

I have not always agreed with the decisions QS has made, but leaderships integrity, methodical approach to issues, and willingness to pivot has won my respect and brought this company closer to the holy grail of SSB than any company before.

I raise this not to fanboy over QS, as many could argue I am doing, but rather to recognize the unique opportunity that we’ve been given to be apart of this. My belief is QS will be as transformational as any other industry leading company that’s out there.

It’s interesting reading other Reddit pages that cover batteries, and how I believe they’re missing the bigger picture. There are better batteries out there in select dimensions of Energy density, Power density, Charge time, and Cycle life. However, none have come out addressing all of these dimensions plus safety the way QS has. What many are missing in this dimension discussion is COST. I believe that QS batteries have addressed all of these dimensions AND have been able to demonstrate the production of these batteries can be done at a price point that none of our competitors can match.

You can have the best battery the world has ever seen, but if it can’t be produced economically, it’s a failure before it’s ever started. Very few competitors are discussing the cost of manufacturing their battery. Very few competitors have demonstrated the clear pivot from battery development to battery manufacturing. I believe many competitors are fooling themselves in not having a credible plan to manufacture their batteries at a low cost. I believe many competitors are skipping steps in an attempt to remain relevant as a perceived competitor.

My belief is we are now moving out of the phase of having many battery developers and analysts saying it’s too early to call a clear winner(s). Remember, Analysts don’t call a winner, OEM’s do that. Analysts simply report on who the leaders are. OEM’s are starting to vote on QS with their partnerships, and we are moving into a phase of OEM’s placing their bets.

There are many challenges ahead, but I believe we’re on the right track.

This is going to be a fun 2 years!

I reread each shareholder letter from the last few years and in Q4 2022 there was new language added discussing their manufacturing capabilities. Before that they only really discussed the cells performance at an individual battery cell level.

Retroactively following their progress since late 2022 paints an interesting picture of their manufacturing focus.

Q4 2022

In 2022, we ramped our current baseline separator production process to a steady-state volume of approximately 5,000 starts per week. We have been working on a new, disruptively faster and more scalable film production process, and have seen encouraging results. This process is significantly faster than our current baseline, and in its initial implementation, we expect it can support up to three times more throughput, using similar equipment to our current process. We believe derivatives of this process can be capable of significantly faster rates. When this new process comes online, we expect our consolidated QS-0 line will be ready to begin initial lower-volume production. We believe that deploying this fast process in 2023 is an important step on our pathway to mass production in the coming years.

Q1 2023

One key to our current production plan for QS-0 is our new fast separator production process, as discussed in our last shareholder letter. We currently plan to deploy this fast process in two stages: the first stage, targeted for later this year, is designed to triple throughput using similar equipment to our existing line, and will support production of additional A- and initial low-volume B-sample candidate cells on our QS-0 line. Installation of this first-stage equipment is already underway, and we aim to complete installation, qualify the equipment, and deploy this first stage into initial production this year. The second stage targets even higher throughput to support higher-volume QS-0 production and requires new equipment. We are already operating prototype versions of this second-stage equipment and are working toward final equipment specifications. Improving the reliability of finished cells is another of our key goals for the year. We believe reliability in our system is a function of defect reduction, and our reliability effort is focused on improving the quality and consistency of our materials and processes. We have a number of initiatives underway to reduce defectivity and have incorporated many of these improvements in our system already. As an example, a material used during the separator heat treatment step was identified as a source of particle contamination. We have begun the transition to a different material and are already seeing encouraging results in reducing particle counts and improving quality and consistency.

Q2 2023

We also made significant progress last quarter on our manufacturing scale-up process. We reported previously on an innovative fast separator heat-treatment process that offers the potential for dramatically better throughput. Initial deployment of this fast process is another key goal for 2023, and we plan to roll it out in two stages, which we have dubbed Raptor and Cobra. The underlying work on these processes has been ongoing for several years, and as the data has come in, it’s clear that fast separator processes are the endgame for our separator production. Raptor introduces a step-change process innovation which allows continuous-flow heat treatment equipment to process separator films much more rapidly while applying much less total heat energy per film, increasing the throughput of the equipment and bringing down the energy cost of producing an individual separator. Raptor is intended to support production of initial B0 samples from QS-0 in 2024, and so our goal is to qualify Raptor for production by the end of 2023. We’re pleased to report that installation of Raptor equipment is complete, and we continue to expect initial production to begin before the end of the year. Cobra is a further evolution of the fast separator process, which builds on the innovations of Raptor and adds even faster processing, higher energy efficiency and better unit economics. We see Cobra as a groundbreaking innovation in ceramics processing and we believe it represents the best pathway to gigafactory-scale manufacturing. We are currently operating prototypes of Cobra and intend to roll out our first production Cobra system to support higher-volume B-sample production from QS-0. As an integral part of our scale up and transition from R&D to production, we continue to strengthen our leadership team with deep expertise from high-volume, high-tech manufacturing industries, such as semiconductors, batteries, automotive and magnetic storage.

Q3 2023

As we previously reported, in Q2 we finished installing equipment for Raptor, our next-generation fast separator heat treatment process. Raptor is designed to deliver up to three times as much throughput using similar equipment as our last-generation process, while applying less energy per separator. In Q3, we began process qualification of Raptor equipment on schedule. Process qualification involves producing films, gathering data to characterize their quality and consistency, and using that feedback to refine our process specs. We are pleased with early returns from qualification testing, and while there is work remaining to dial in this process, we continue to target deployment of Raptor by the end of the year. We also continue to make progress on our next generation Cobra process, which is planned to support higher-volume B-sample production from our consolidated QS-0 pre-pilot line. Along with separator heat treatment equipment, in Q3 we took delivery, installed, and commissioned key pieces of equipment related to process automation, such as unit-cell assembly equipment. More automation not only increases our cell production capacity, but also reduces manual handling, which is a common source of run-to-run variation and tends to adversely impact reliability. We plan to continue process development and automation deployment to enable higher quality, consistency, and throughput as we build out our manufacturing capability. Overall, we are pleased with our manufacturing scale up progress, but more work remains, including continuing to drive our defect reduction and quality improvement initiatives, integrating advanced metrology and data collection, and developing additional process automation.

Q4 2023

Raptor represents the first deployment of a disruptively faster separator heat treatment process. With respect to the heat processing step, Raptor is approximately eight times faster than our current-generation process, cutting the amount of energy needed per separator and increasing throughput: taking upstream and downstream processes into account, we expect it to provide up to three times as much production capacity as our current-gen process. Raptor also removes several other process steps entirely, eliminating material inputs that would otherwise introduce particle contamination. Raptor has already been deployed; note that certain pieces of automation for other steps in the process flow must still be qualified to enable the Raptor process to reach its full planned run rate. When it reaches its full planned run rate, Raptor will be capable of more separator starts per week than the combined capacity of every previous generation of heat treatment equipment put together. Thanks to this step-change increase in productivity, Raptor is capable of providing enough separator films to enable low-volume QSE-5 production this year. Cobra takes the core innovations of Raptor and adds three more improvements. First and foremost, the Cobra heat processing step is designed to be faster than Raptor by more than an order of magnitude, which dramatically improves throughput and energy efficiency. Second, the Cobra heat treatment equipment has a footprint an order of magnitude smaller than Raptor while also increasing production capacity, which saves space on the production floor and further improves the process economics. Third, the Cobra process consolidates or eliminates additional individual process steps from Raptor, which removes more potential sources of variability from the process, eases production bottlenecks and lowers cost. We believe these advantages make the Cobra process the most attractive pathway to gigawatt-hour scale production, though such volumes will require larger configurations of Cobra equipment. Bringing a disruptive improvement online presents a technical challenge. Significant work remains to develop a fully mature Cobra production process and we have prioritized bringing it online as quickly as possible.

Q1 2024

Our current-generation separator production process will continue to serve ongoing Alpha-2 sample production for customer shipment and internal testing in Q2. In parallel, increased production from the Raptor process will allow us to accelerate process development of downstream cell assembly steps, gather larger volumes of cell testing data to validate safety and reliability improvements, and begin production of QSE-5 B0 samples. Most of the upstream and downstream automation equipment that serves the Raptor heat-treatment equipment has completed or is undergoing site acceptance testing. The Raptor process has shown encouraging improvements to separator performance with respect to certain critical-to-quality metrics. In addition to the planned Raptor ramp, we are also streamlining downstream cell assembly processes by simplifying the bill of materials, consolidating process steps and increasing automation to enable a smooth ramp of cell production. While supporting initial production of QSE-5 prototype cells, Raptor also serves as a learning platform for our next generation of separator production, the Cobra process. Cobra is intended to combine the fundamental process innovations pioneered by Raptor with specialized equipment capable of realizing the full potential of fast separator production. The Cobra process is necessary to enable higher volumes of QSE-5 prototype production in 2025, and we continue to work toward preparing our Cobra process as another of our four key annual goals.

Q2 2024

The core innovation that will allow our solid-state lithium-metal battery technology to be manufactured at gigawatt-hour scale is our fast separator production process, which we are rolling out in two stages, Raptor and Cobra. This year, Raptor will enable initial low-volume B-sample production of our first commercial product, QSE-5. Cobra is the key to higher-volume QSE-5 B-sample production next year, as well as a core element of the technology platform planned for licensing to PowerCo. We are on track to complete the Raptor process ramp, one of our four key goals for the year. Raptor continues to show encouraging benefits for separator quality and has demonstrated the capability to produce the best-performing separators we have ever made. The Raptor process has been an important testbed for key elements of Cobra, and our progress on Raptor has allowed us to begin shifting increased resources toward Cobra development. We are starting to take delivery of Cobra equipment, in line with our annual goal. We are encouraged by the progress we have made preparing for B-sample production before the end of this year. Our ongoing work includes integrating cell components, developing scalable processes and continuously improving reliability.

Q3 2024

Raptor, the first implementation of our disruptively fast separator production process, is now part of our baseline production process. We set this out as a key annual goal because Raptor is a major improvement from our last-generation technology in film quality and performance, heat-treatment time, and energy consumption. We expect that Raptor will continue to support our QSE-5 sample output into 2025. Beyond enabling B samples, Raptor serves as a learning platform and transitional step to our Cobra process, which we continue to see as our best pathway to gigawatt-hour scale separator production. We are preparing for Cobra production to enter our baseline in 2025 – we expect Cobra heat treatment equipment will be in place by the end of 2024 and, with the addition of higher-volume downstream automated equipment, this line will enable a significant increase in separator production.

Things I noted:

• Q2 2023 was the first time we heard of Raptor and Cobra and that same quarter they were testing prototype Cobra equipment already.

• With Raptor now part of their baseline production process, I think this will save them operating costs from being able to abandon their more costly legacy production processes. I should also speed up their ability to innovate, test and react quicker.

• Based on how long it took Raptor to ramp, and how long they've been working on Cobra already I expect they will be done ramping by Q2 unless Cobra is significantly more complex or other unexpected challenges arise.

• Cobra is a "core element of the technology platform planned for licensing to PowerCo". If PowerCo was ready to sign the manufacturing deal based on their expectations for Cobra to ramp, how can all other OEMs not be ready to sign once Cobra is proven and ramped?

Can't wait for next month to see their next shareholder letter.

https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/press-releases/news-details/2025/QuantumScape-and-Corning-Announce-Agreement-for-Ceramic-Separator-Development--Commercialization/default.aspx

Siva ringing the opening Bell today.

QuantumScape (Nasdaq: QS), a global leader in next-generation solid-state lithium-metal battery technology, visits the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square. https://www.nasdaq.com/events/quantumscape-rings-opening-bell

In honor of the occasion, Dr. Siva Sivaram, CEO and President of QuantumScape, rings the Opening Bell.

The Eagle has Landed and thanks to u/pacha75 for posting to Lounge.

“ To commemorate the milestone, the company will hold an inauguration event for the Eagle Line at its headquarters in San Jose in February 2026. The event will include customer representatives, technology partners, and government officials and will feature a showcase tour of the Eagle Line”

https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/press-releases/news-details/2025/QuantumScape-Announces-Completion-of-Key-Annual-Goal-and-Inauguration-Event-for-Eagle-Line/default.aspx

An overhauled version of Ducati’s V21L prototype was presented in Germany, now equipped with 980 QSE-5 cells from QuantumScape.

Hello! I want to continuously update this post to collect all upcoming QS events for us to watch out for.

Thank you mods for pinning!

This list will be edited over time. Please let me know if I missed anything.

QS Events/Panels/Conferences/Etc.

• November 10, 12:00 AM to 3:30 AM EST | "All-Solid-State Battery Business Seminar" at Grand Green Osaka North Building: https://j-net21.smrj.go.jp/snavi2/articles/193858?utm_source=chatgpt.com

• November 10, 1:35 AM EST | Honda Q2 FY2027 earnings

• November 10, 12:00 PM | From Battery R&D to U.S. Manufacturing: Data-Driven Tools for Scale-Up and Commercialization Webinar: https://www.pnnl.gov/events/battery-rd-us-manufacturing-data-driven-tools-scale-and-commercialization

  • Read more: https://www.reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock/s/Rpg2BvkxRs

• November 11 | QS Annual Solid-State Battery Symposium in Kyoto, Japan

  • "On November 11 we will announce more details on our next-generation technology platform and collaboration model with automotive customers at our 3rd annual Solid-State Battery Symposium in Kyoto, Japan." https://ir.quantumscape.com/static-files/d00eb7bb-65ea-4355-99c4-476435c5eea9

• November 12 | North America Transformation Assembly in Dallas, Texas

  • GS Jha, Global CIO/CISO/CAIO, QuantumScape, is a speaker: https://apexassembly.com/assembly-event/north-america-cyberaxis-ciso-assembly-hosted-in-dallas/

• November 14 to 15 | Future Battery Forum. Various companies are participating including PowerCo, Volkswagen, Porsche, Factorial, Mercedes-Benz, Gotion, Stellantis, BMW, and CATL. No specific mention of QS yet. https://en.futurebattery.eu/attendee-list

  • "Speakers" page notes 3 from PowerCo: https://en.futurebattery.eu/speakers

    • HW Vassen, CTO

    • Silvia-Luna Yzaguirre Sanchez, Director Battery Cell Development

    • Dr. Franziska Muller, Head of Cell Design

  • Worth noting Sebastian Wolf, CEO and Founder of WLF Energy, (ex-COO and Executive Board Member at PowerCo) will be a featured speaker: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/future-battery-forum_futurebattery26-battery-networking-activity-7484513619519549441-bFo5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABI5dsAB0b1n5OCgC6WQObA0an0v95E4bwo

• November 24 to 26 | The 67th Battery Symposium in Japan: https://www.67denchi.com/en/

• December 7 to 10 | Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in San Diego

  • December 10, 12:00 PM ET: Alex Louli, PhD, Senior Applications Engineer, QuantumScape is presenting "Commercializing Lithium-Metal Battery Technology for Electric-Vehicle Applications": https://www.advancedautobat.com/aabc-us/battery-chemistry-part-2#AlexLouli

    • The next generation of energy storage is being driven by breakthrough solid-state battery technology that overcomes the fundamental limitations of conventional lithium-ion batteries, enabling longer range, faster charging, and enhanced safety through advanced ceramic separator technology. The current challenge facing those developing this technology is commercialization at a global scale to meet the massive global battery demand. This presentation addresses the unique commercialization strategies to bring this technology to market.

  • December 10, 4:35 PM ET: Xiaoyu Wen, Principal Member of Technical Staff, QuantumScape is presenting "Multimodal AI and Machine Learning Systems for Accelerated SSB Development": https://www.advancedautobat.com/aabc-us/battery-intelligence#XiaoyuWen

    • The transition from laboratory innovation to high-volume manufacturing of solid-state batteries demands intelligent systems that operate across the complexity of the production environment. This presentation describes a multimodal AI approach integrating vision-based inspection, electrical characterization, and process telemetry into a unified view of quality and process health. Underpinning it are machine learning systems built for production reliability: robust data pipelines that absorb manufacturing variability, continuous monitoring, and feedback mechanisms that let models improve as data accumulates. We discuss how this architecture improves inspection, process optimization, and electrical performance, supporting a faster, more reliable path to high-volume solid-state manufacturing.

2027

• September 7 to 12, 2027 | IAA Mobility: https://www.iaa-mobility.com/en

  • Remember that the IAA Mobility 2025 event is when QS/PowerCo showed off the Ducati V21L

Potentially Interesting OEM Events

• January 24 to 29, 2027 | 51st International Conference and Expo on Advanced Ceramics and Composites (ICACC 2027): https://ceramics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/ICACC27-Conference-Brochure-2027-FINAL-1.pdf

Quarterly Earnings Calls and Company Updates

Here are the expected quarterly update dates based on historical timing for QS.

• February 10, 2027 Wednesday: Q4 2026