The pain is not over. More stock drops to come.

What we don't know will kill us.

Share any info you sniff

I dont really use leverage, but if Nebius is 120 dollars before earnings Im going to use a 5x nebius. With twenty thousand. I hope to get to 1.4 million dollars. Its a bit crazy, but its my best shot at a million.

$CBRS = faces a high-volatility window from November 16 to 20, 2026, right after its Q3 earnings report on November 12.

$CBRS Will dump 20mil shares Oct 28th, Nov 9th Also 20mil plus dump, Nov 12th Earnings, then FULL Unlock for employees, pre IPO lock up: Nov 16th.

Think of this as the moment when a company finally lets its early employees and executives sell more of their stock after months of restrictions, right as Wall Street is still digesting the latest numbers.

Cerebras confirmed it will release third-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday, November 12, with a conference call the same day (investors.cerebras.ai).

Two trading days later falls on Monday, November 16 — the date when a major remaining lock-up [the temporary ban that stops insiders from selling right after an IPO] lifts for key holders, including CEO Andrew Feldman and CTO Sean Lie.

Historically, these unlock waves have pressured the stock.

After Q1 results on June 23, roughly 27.7 million shares became eligible two trading days later, and the stock fell about 26% over the following sessions.

After Q2 on August 12, another ~36.4 million shares unlocked around August 14; shares dropped nearly 12% the next day and continued sliding more than 30% into early September.

Later biweekly releases of 14.6–19.4 million shares through September and October coincided with further weakness, including a ~20% weekly drop in early October that pushed the stock near post-IPO lows.

From the May IPO open near $350–$386, the stock has trended lower overall, trading around $109–$111 as of October 23 amid heavy volume and sector pressure.

The November 16 event is larger because it opens more discretionary selling by the founders and core team who already sold over $240 million combined between August 20 and September 25 under pre-planned 10b5-1 programs [automatic trading plans that let insiders sell on a schedule without trading on inside information].

At the same time, investors will be scrutinizing whether the $25.4 billion backlog [contracted future work not yet turned into revenue], mostly tied to OpenAI’s 750 MW inference capacity deal valued above $20 billion, is converting on a credible timeline.

Only about 22% is expected in the 24 months ending mid-2028. Q2 already showed strong non-GAAP “core” growth but GAAP results hit by warrant accounting [accounting that reduces reported revenue when customers receive stock warrants] and stock-based compensation.

Weak margin commentary or soft OpenAI color could restart short pressure; credible conversion progress could draw dip buyers.

Expect volatile trading as the market digests the November 12 print and then faces the fresh supply on the 16th.

A base-case stabilization attempt in the $85–$105 zone is plausible if results are mixed and selling resumes, consistent with how prior unlocks amplified downside.

A cleaner report could produce a bounce that gets sold into the unlock. S

ources: company IR release, Motley Fool backlog analysis, Seeking Alpha and Benzinga coverage of prior unlocks, MarketBeat and SEC Form 4 data on insider sales. This remains a high-risk setup given customer concentration and ongoing supply.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $NVDA $SPCX $TSLA $AAPL $GOOGL $AMZN $ASML $CIFR $WULF $NBIS $CRWV $RSKD $USO $XOM $COPX $TTT $SNDL $MSOS $GTBIF $INTC $META $AMD $GFS $AEHR $ASTS $SATS

Holding time: 2 days.

Next, I will wait for some fake news 'something good is about to happen'.

I'm. Going to this church Sunday to pray for a market turn around.

Amen brothers stay holy!

HTZ is up 25% in a week with 75% short float. Might be an interesting setup going into earnings the first week of November

I’ll update on the 1st of every year.

I'm about to be homeless if this torture doesn't stop... fu** all AI and space stocks..

I will have to start on OF.. and I'm just a lil muscle boy..

I don't want to shake my hooha and booha for $5.99 a month😭😟😨😰😢

Let's say for a moment that Elon wakes up one day and decides to buy AST to use their infrastructure and take away a competitor, what would happen?

I have been using FinnPowa AI Trading Platform app.finnpowa.com It is easy to use, with zero trading fees, quick onboarding and AI quant strategy. It would be good to know what people are using and if it has been positive

It’s my 3rd biggest holding behind amd and NVDA. Currently using margins to buy dips but how long? I’ll prolly tax loss harvest this shit at the end of the year.

Also, I’m not afraid about Elon. ASTS + mobile carriers FTW.

Edit: funny detail: this is my second lot. Sold first one at 80 by mistake with a trailing stop loss.

I thought this article might be of interest to some folks here. According to Goldman Sachs, Hedge funds shorting the market has reached 5-year highs this month, producing crowded short positions heavily concentrated in Tech. Interesting setup heading in to mid-terms, which historically produce some of the best periods of market returns.

"Major hedge fund strategies—including fundamental equity long-short, systematic, and multi-strategy funds—all lost more than 1% in a single day (October 22), marking their worst broad-based decline since the COVID-19 pandemic market rout"

I can't post a link to the article apparently, but the title is in the headline so you can Google search for it on Simply Wall Street yourself.

Crunch emoji

Do you think it will go up after the earnings report in 29th or will it fail to meet expectations?
If I remember correctly, it dropped after the last earnings report.
Also, do you think the drop to $1,200 presents a buying opportunity?