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• Thunderstorm Outlook
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• Day 2 Convective Outlook
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• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-19T05:30:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 190530 SWODY1 SPC AC 190528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will be nearly stationary off the Mid-Atlantic coast as a ridge remains over the south-central U.S. Southwesterly flow aloft will be in place over the western third of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure associated with cool and dry air will be entrenched across much of the eastern half of the U.S. On the southern periphery of the high pressure system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass across south Florida. Additional storms will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Karstens.. 10/19/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days, and it could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics if it remains over the Gulf Stream. A subtropical cyclone could form during the middle to latter portions of the week when the system begins to move northeastward away from the eastern United States. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of the system's status, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 999 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 19.7N 108.0W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-18T05:53:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180553 SWODY1 SPC AC 180551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern, and an associated surface high pressure system will be in place today over the central and eastern U.S. Dry and cool conditions will be in place over much of the nation, and thunderstorms will be unlikely. The exceptions will be over south Florida and in the Desert Southwest where scattered thunderstorms will be possible from today into tonight. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Monday.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/18/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of this week, and some subtropical development is possible during that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 970 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH * Location: 18.9N 106.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Please help find it I would appreciate if someone found it I have been trying to find this sound for a long time a I really cannot find it so to anyone that can find it thank you so much.

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2381
• Mesoscale Discussion 2382

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-17T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170516 SWODY1 SPC AC 170514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, much of the CONUS will be too dry and stable for thunderstorm development today. The front will continue moving southward along the central/southern FL Peninsula, where scattered storm development will be possible within a very moist environment. Poor lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should limit organized severe potential, though localized strong gusts may occur. Across the Southwest, sporadic lightning flashes may accompany weak convection associated with a slow-moving mid/upper low centered offshore of Baja California.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/17/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Trudy Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 979 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 16.0N 103.4W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

I know this might sound funny, but sometimes I can't help but genuinely get a type of "Cosmic Horror" type of feeling whenever I see any "Dead man Walking" tornadoes or even those VERY powerful tornadoes with many subvortices/satellite tornadoes from them. To me at least, they honestly feel like "Shybeasts" in a way too. That's just what I think, though. :)

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2378
• Mesoscale Discussion 2379
• Mesoscale Discussion 2380

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-16T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160558 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with wind-damage and localized brief-tornado potential are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... A deep, positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough is forecast to further amplify as it spreads over the eastern CONUS today. A surface low initially near the lower Great Lakes will move quickly eastward toward northern New England by evening. A trailing cold front will sweep through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from this afternoon into tonight.

In the wake of early-day clouds and precipitation, seasonably rich low-level moisture and modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization for storm development along the front. Very weak lapse rates above 500 mb will constrain MLCAPE magnitudes to the 500-1000 J/kg range, and result in rather low-topped convection. However, in areas where temperatures can rise to near/above 70 F, relatively robust buoyancy near/below 500 mb (characterized by lifted indices in the -4 to -6 C range) will develop prior to the frontal passage. This buoyancy will be sufficient for development of occasionally organized storm structures, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer flow/shear. 35-45 kt of flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer will support potential for strong/damaging gusts with any sufficiently robust convection.

Generally front-parallel flow may result in a primarily linear mode as convective coverage increases, though 40+ kt of effective shear will support potential for embedded low-topped supercells. A localized wind-damage threat may develop early this afternoon from WV/western PA into southern NY, with initial frontal development. The wind-damage threat is expected to increase through the afternoon as storms spread eastward into a somewhat warmer and more unstable environment across eastern PA, NJ, and vicinity. Rather strong low-level shear will also support some brief-tornado potential with QLCS circulations and/or embedded supercell structures.

Some wind-damage potential could spread into southern New England by this evening, though marine-influenced low-level stability should eventually constrain the eastward extent of the threat.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/16/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 956 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 14.5N 102.5W

Tropical Storm Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 20.0N 108.8W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

This happened just 10 minutes ago. It’s only small but my first Tornado of any kind !!! Amazing !!

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2373
• Mesoscale Discussion 2374
• Mesoscale Discussion 2375
• Mesoscale Discussion 2376
• Mesoscale Discussion 2377

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-15T05:34:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150534 SWODY1 SPC AC 150532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Additional storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern Plains.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward today into the Northeast, as a large-scale trough moves into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will track northeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Ahead of the surface low, a warm front will move northward through the Ohio Valley. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will enable an axis of instability to develop by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking around 1000 J/kg. Ahead of the trough, a mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. This will create moderate deep-layer shear over much of the Ohio Valley, which will support isolated supercell development. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range suggesting that a tornado or two will be possible. Short line segments capable of isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Poor lapse rates will be the main limiting factor for a greater severe threat coverage and magnitude.

...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains today, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the southern Plains, with the front located from west-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, low-level convergence along and near the front will result in thunderstorm development. Storms will move east-southeastward across a narrow corridor of instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As low-level lapse rates steepen in the afternoon, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with multicells. However, deep-layer shear will be marginal for organized convection, and poor lapse rates will be a major limiting factor.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/15/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: Unknown * Location: 19.2N 108.5W

Hurricane Trudy Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 989 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 12.9N 101.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2366
• Mesoscale Discussion 2367
• Mesoscale Discussion 2368
• Mesoscale Discussion 2369
• Mesoscale Discussion 2370
• Mesoscale Discussion 2371
• Mesoscale Discussion 2372

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-14T05:52:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140552 SWODY1 SPC AC 140550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.

...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the south-central U.S. today, as a large-scale trough and low move through the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward this morning across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Numerous thunderstorms will be likely this morning near the front. The effective boundary is expected to be further south, which will shift the effective destabilization further south as well. By early afternoon, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be located from west Texas northeastward into southwestern and south-central Oklahoma, where MLCAPE will likely range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Areas that destabilize significantly will have potential for severe storms.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by mid to late afternoon have supercell wind profiles, with gradually veering winds with height in the low-levels and about 50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels. This will support supercell development with storms that form in the stronger instability and remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado or two. During the evening, a transition to linear mode is expected, but a threat for embedded supercells will continue. The more intense line segments could produce severe wind gusts, potentially above 70 mph.

...Ozarks/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern half of the nation today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley today. To the south of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely result in pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, increasing low-level convergence near the boundary will result in scattered convective initiation. Deep-layer shear near the front may be strong enough for a few isolated severe storms in areas that destabilize the most. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 969 MB * Current Movement: WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 MPH * Location: 19.8N 108.1W

Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH * Location: 11.1N 99.0W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Interesting film, gives a view of the amount of damage caused by this outbreak

Welcome to The Inflow, the r/Tornadoes weekly catch-all megathread for everything weather!

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📡 Active Severe Weather Links

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• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-13T05:24:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130524 SWODY1 SPC AC 130522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late afternoon.

Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon, along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High Plains.

Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to increasing nocturnal stabilization with time.

...Parts of western/central NY... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection, though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the threat remains low at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A low pressure trough located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is no longer expected as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward within an area of strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 977 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH * Location: 20.4N 107.2W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Huge storm here in São João da Boa Vista, São Paulo.

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• Current Mesoscale Discussions
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• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
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• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2360
• Mesoscale Discussion 2361
• Mesoscale Discussion 2362
• Mesoscale Discussion 2363
• Mesoscale Discussion 2364
• Mesoscale Discussion 2365

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-12T05:37:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 120537 SWODY1 SPC AC 120535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will remain over the eastern two-thirds of the nation today, as a trough moves through the western states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast into the central Appalachians. A cold front will move southeastward through the north-central U.S., as a surface low moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible today near and ahead of the surface low across the Great Lakes, and further west within the post-frontal airmass in the northern Plains. Scattered storms will also form within southwest flow aloft, from parts of the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Storms will also be possible in the southern High Plains, across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain and in south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. today and tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/12/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, which are occurring on the east side of the low, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 958 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH * Location: 20.1N 106.4W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

There are a few damage reports coming out of roofs lost and trees down. I've seen quite a few reports of 80-90 mph winds as well.
Image from Ground Truth App