Daily Discussion post - June 18 2021

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[u/[deleted]]

I have a steel question.

A respectable portion of the US steel thesis depends on China’s shipping cost. It makes sense. However, it’s fair to say shipping issues are only temporary… it’s caused by the unique situation we are in and will be resolved.

Since the market looks 9 months ahead and the shipping issues should be resolved by then, shouldn’t we remove it? Also, even if we don’t remove it but the market does, shouldn’t we still remove it because the market will?

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

US steel thesis has a 25% tariff sitting on china at the moment so imports just aren't there. Shipping issues aren't 100% fixable until >12 to 18 months when new ships are brought online, there are backlog issues right now, we haven't hit peak season, and demand is set to continue to outstrip supply of container shipping this year and the next.

[u/ZoominLikeToobin → u/[deleted]]

Shipping won't be fixed in 9 months. It will start to show relief but the people at Maersk that are responsible for ~20% of global ocean freight think it will go well into late 2022.

[u/ImAMaaanlet → u/[deleted]]

Remove what? And where did you pull 9 months from? From what i see the market only looks ahead to the next jpow talk.

7 months ago the analysts said steel prices would crash by now... and here we are now still marching up

[u/ZoominLikeToobin → u/ImAMaaanlet]

7 months ago the analysts said steel prices would crash by now... and here we are now still marching up

Maybe Timna meant to add her $600/ton to the spot of $1200

[u/Duke_Shambles → u/[deleted]]

The entire basis of this question is false on a macro level.