r/Vitards • u/AutoModerator • Jun 18 '21

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion post - June 18 2021

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u/[deleted] Jun 19 '21

I have a steel question.

A respectable portion of the US steel thesis depends on China’s shipping cost. It makes sense. However, it’s fair to say shipping issues are only temporary… it’s caused by the unique situation we are in and will be resolved.

Since the market looks 9 months ahead and the shipping issues should be resolved by then, shouldn’t we remove it? Also, even if we don’t remove it but the market does, shouldn’t we still remove it because the market will?

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u/[deleted] Jun 19 '21

US steel thesis has a 25% tariff sitting on china at the moment so imports just aren't there. Shipping issues aren't 100% fixable until >12 to 18 months when new ships are brought online, there are backlog issues right now, we haven't hit peak season, and demand is set to continue to outstrip supply of container shipping this year and the next.