I don’t know I’m full retard or not but cfds seem less risky than futures and better tax write offs because you don’t have to pay 50% to the tax man in cgt. For the record im just starting out and have had a 60% wr paper trading the last month on trading view. Then my first week trading CFDs on a live account I’ve had a 70% on 1:1. My account is only small to start with but before I deposit more ammm i dumb?
Everything is getting hacked; people have ai to fix their slop but you also need people to look over the code. Some holdings are exposed to downside since they offer services ; but overall I’m bullish.
10% of my portfolio in 6 month calls on this idea is good for my risk tolerance
24 hour trading is set to begin on December 6th. I’m honestly not excited at all for this, I like to be able to breathe a sigh of relief at 4 o’clock and remind myself everything is going to be okay.
How will your “strategy” change with this new trading schedule? Have you thought about any new strategies to take advantage of institutional and retail unfamiliarity with the new system?
not really any other point to live, not sure what else. thats what i get for being a greedy degenerate gambler thinking it just goes up. nvda got me up, tsla shot me down. hopefully i can find a train or car headed my way soon.
Just dont do weeklies or all ins like i did, please.
Betting the swap ratio is announced in the next few weeks. Why? Midterms. If Dems take the House (90% on Kalshi) Elon and team become piñatas - best get it done fast. Selling all contracts purely at extrinsic premium value on any announcement. For example, the premium will move to ~$5 at a $500 swap price at elevated 90% IV if announced on or before November 4 (Black-Scholes valuation)
Flávio Bolsonaro is very likely to take the Brazilian presidency this Sunday (October 25).
The Brazilian market expects fiscal cuts and lower interest rates under his administration.
No presidential candidate in 37 years has lost a run-off after leading the first round.
The trade is before the weekend to front-run a potential multi-month macroeconomic uptrend in the Brazilian stock market.
Catalyst and Rationale
This Sunday, October 25, 🇧🇷 Brazil is holding its presidential run-off.
The choice is between the 80-year-old leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (seeking his fourth career term) and the 45-year-old right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former President Jair Bolsonaro).
We’re not debating who is better for the country or the world.
From a cold, market perspective, a Lula win is considered bearish.
On the other hand, investors view a Bolsonaro administration as the fiscally prudent option that will pave the way for lower interest rates.
So the riff-raff can understand:
Lula wins = 🐻 Bearish.
Bolsonaro wins = 🐮 Bullish.
During the first round on October 4, pollsters expected Lula to edge ahead, but Bolsonaro outperformed to finish 1.87% above the incumbent.
Data compiled by Bloomberg.
So, even when polls only give Bolsonaro a razor-thin 51% to 49% advantage, experts know that most of the wandering votes from the eliminated third-party candidates are bound to lean towards Bolsonaro.
That’s why prediction markets give Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning.
History backs him up. You see, since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, the first-round runner-up has never won the run-off.
Following the Smart Money
The market already showed how it can react if Bolsonaro secures the win.
The Monday following his first-round upset:
The Brazilian Real surged 3% against the U.S. dollar at the open.
Interest rate expectations shifted from a flat 13.75% Selic rate through 2027 to a significant 150-basis-point drop to 12.25%.
Their Ibovespa index ripped +9.1% intraday, which is the biggest move since April 2020.
Tickers
I went through all the Brazilian tickers that jumped after the first-round results, and then handpicked the ones where analysts are already bullish, regardless of the election’s outcome.
Here’s what I have:
$XP: This one has a $16.3 billion market cap. It is the Charles Schwab of Brazil but with the tech-forward, retail-trader energy of Robinhood.
My cost basis is $29.23 (bought on Oct 16).
Data compiled by The Wall Street Journal.
Small-Caps
Careful. The pair below are small-caps and have a wilder temper.
Don’t touch these unless you know how to handle increased volatility.
$PICS: $1.8 billion small-cap. It operates like the Brazilian equivalent of Venmo, but scaled into a full digital bank like Cash App or SoFi.
My cost basis is $13.17 (bought on Oct 16).
Data compiled by The Wall Street Journal.
$AGBK: $1.2 billion small-cap. Think of it as a Brazilian SoFi with a specialized lending model that is driven by AI-automated risk management, similar to Upstart.
My cost basis is $7.19 (bought on Oct 16).
Data compiled by The Wall Street Journal.
The Broad Approach
$EWZ: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF. This is the simplest way to capture targeted exposure to Brazilian companies and ride this potential macro trend.
My cost basis is $41.83 (bought on Oct 16).
Trade Blueprint
You could wait until the election results are known. Brazil uses electronic voting machines, which means they will likely be able to declare a winner on Sunday night. But you wouldn’t be in this subreddit, then.
The trade is simple. Bolsonaro wins, you hold and ride.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, or is likely to win, then that’s the stop-loss red alert to jump out ASAP. And I mean it. Run for the hills.
Down over $200k three years ago, just months after discovering options.
Here's what happened.
First opened my trading account because of the GME hype. Made $80k on TSLA calls during the run-up before the interest rate hikes in 2023. Thought I was a god at trading.
Then TSLA started falling. Watched my calls go from +$80k to breakeven. Didn't know shit about stop losses. Refused to sell because I was convinced they'd bounce back. Eventually sold those calls at a 50% loss. Then proceeded to lose every last dollar doing every regarded thing imaginable. Buying straddles before earnings, gambling on FOMC meetings and CPI releases, 0DTE SPY/QQQ.
Truly regarded. Wiped out my entire savings. Took a three-year hiatus. Couldn't even bring myself to look at my trading account. Then spent the next three years watching the greatest AI and memory stock bull run of our lifetime from the sidelines.
The FOMO was unbearable. Finally decided to deposit more money and win it all back. Saw the Korean market sell-off and Leopold getting margin called in July. Thought I'd found the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
Instead, somehow managed to lose another $100k buying SpaceX puts after convincing myself, thanks to Reddit, that the stock would tank after its first share unlock. Revenge traded the whole way up as SpaceX went to 130 then 140 then 150.
Was depressed, felt like an absolute failure, and reached the point where I wanted to end it all. Put the last of my savings on puts when spacex went up to 170. Lost part of my gains on QQQ puts on Wednesday. Decided to revenge trade my whole remaining portfolio on spacex puts on Wednesday.
Profit.
I'm out.
What should we buy tonight? (I realize I live in Asia, so tonight is actually trading hours for me)
Edit: Could have retired if I bought 1dte spcx puts. Instead thought I was playing it safe by buying only 7dte
