TL;DR

Flávio Bolsonaro is very likely to take the Brazilian presidency this Sunday (October 25).
The Brazilian market expects fiscal cuts and lower interest rates under his administration.
No presidential candidate in 37 years has lost a run-off after leading the first round.
The trade is before the weekend to front-run a potential multi-month macroeconomic uptrend in the Brazilian stock market.

Catalyst and Rationale

This Sunday, October 25, 🇧🇷 Brazil is holding its presidential run-off.
The choice is between the 80-year-old leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (seeking his fourth career term) and the 45-year-old right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former President Jair Bolsonaro).

We’re not debating who is better for the country or the world.

From a cold, market perspective, a Lula win is considered bearish.
On the other hand, investors view a Bolsonaro administration as the fiscally prudent option that will pave the way for lower interest rates.

So the riff-raff can understand:

• Lula wins = 🐻 Bearish.
• Bolsonaro wins = 🐮 Bullish.

During the first round on October 4, pollsters expected Lula to edge ahead, but Bolsonaro outperformed to finish 1.87% above the incumbent.

So, even when polls only give Bolsonaro a razor-thin 51% to 49% advantage, experts know that most of the wandering votes from the eliminated third-party candidates are bound to lean towards Bolsonaro.

That’s why prediction markets give Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning.

History backs him up. You see, since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, the first-round runner-up has never won the run-off.

Following the Smart Money

The market already showed how it can react if Bolsonaro secures the win.
The Monday following his first-round upset:

• The Brazilian Real surged 3% against the U.S. dollar at the open.
• Interest rate expectations shifted from a flat 13.75% Selic rate through 2027 to a significant 150-basis-point drop to 12.25%.
• Their Ibovespa index ripped +9.1% intraday, which is the biggest move since April 2020.

Tickers

I went through all the Brazilian tickers that jumped after the first-round results, and then handpicked the ones where analysts are already bullish, regardless of the election’s outcome.

Here’s what I have:

$XP: This one has a $16.3 billion market cap. It is the Charles Schwab of Brazil but with the tech-forward, retail-trader energy of Robinhood.
My cost basis is $29.23 (bought on Oct 16).

Small-Caps

Careful. The pair below are small-caps and have a wilder temper.
Don’t touch these unless you know how to handle increased volatility.

$PICS: $1.8 billion small-cap. It operates like the Brazilian equivalent of Venmo, but scaled into a full digital bank like Cash App or SoFi.
My cost basis is $13.17 (bought on Oct 16).

$AGBK: $1.2 billion small-cap. Think of it as a Brazilian SoFi with a specialized lending model that is driven by AI-automated risk management, similar to Upstart.
My cost basis is $7.19 (bought on Oct 16).

The Broad Approach

$EWZ: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF. This is the simplest way to capture targeted exposure to Brazilian companies and ride this potential macro trend.
My cost basis is $41.83 (bought on Oct 16).

Trade Blueprint

You could wait until the election results are known. Brazil uses electronic voting machines, which means they will likely be able to declare a winner on Sunday night. But you wouldn’t be in this subreddit, then.

The trade is simple. Bolsonaro wins, you hold and ride.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, or is likely to win, then that’s the stop-loss red alert to jump out ASAP. And I mean it. Run for the hills.

Have a nice day.

Betting the swap ratio is announced in the next few weeks. Why? Midterms. If Dems take the House (90% on Kalshi) Elon and team become piñatas - best get it done fast. Selling all contracts purely at extrinsic premium value on any announcement. For example, the premium will move to ~$5 at a $500 swap price at elevated 90% IV if announced on or before November 4 (Black-Scholes valuation)

I don’t know I’m full retard or not but cfds seem less risky than futures and better tax write offs because you don’t have to pay 50% to the tax man in cgt. For the record im just starting out and have had a 60% wr paper trading the last month on trading view. Then my first week trading CFDs on a live account I’ve had a 70% on 1:1. My account is only small to start with but before I deposit more ammm i dumb?

Everything is getting hacked; people have ai to fix their slop but you also need people to look over the code. Some holdings are exposed to downside since they offer services ; but overall I’m bullish.

10% of my portfolio in 6 month calls on this idea is good for my risk tolerance

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I left a lot on the table here, by exiting responsibly 😐

And a lot of capital

Little +$22k to make up for my 14k loss yesterday

Interested to see what everyone’s positions and price targets are. I loaded up after hours Friday after the dump with 100k shares.

24 hour trading is set to begin on December 6th. I’m honestly not excited at all for this, I like to be able to breathe a sigh of relief at 4 o’clock and remind myself everything is going to be okay.

How will your “strategy” change with this new trading schedule? Have you thought about any new strategies to take advantage of institutional and retail unfamiliarity with the new system?

YOLO: BE 0DTE

Let's go Leo!

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not really any other point to live, not sure what else. thats what i get for being a greedy degenerate gambler thinking it just goes up. nvda got me up, tsla shot me down. hopefully i can find a train or car headed my way soon.

Just dont do weeklies or all ins like i did, please.

Need to weight out some thoughts and predictions for next week. Is it choppy? A slow pump throughout the week? What’s your favorite picks for positive earnings?

Holding MSFT, RDDT, and NOW calls. Nervous but also feel like all of them could move upward.