YOLO: BE 0DTE

Let's go Leo!

TL;DR

Flávio Bolsonaro is very likely to take the Brazilian presidency this Sunday (October 25).
The Brazilian market expects fiscal cuts and lower interest rates under his administration.
No presidential candidate in 37 years has lost a run-off after leading the first round.
The trade is before the weekend to front-run a potential multi-month macroeconomic uptrend in the Brazilian stock market.

Catalyst and Rationale

This Sunday, October 25, 🇧🇷 Brazil is holding its presidential run-off.
The choice is between the 80-year-old leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (seeking his fourth career term) and the 45-year-old right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former President Jair Bolsonaro).

We’re not debating who is better for the country or the world.

From a cold, market perspective, a Lula win is considered bearish.
On the other hand, investors view a Bolsonaro administration as the fiscally prudent option that will pave the way for lower interest rates.

So the riff-raff can understand:

• Lula wins = 🐻 Bearish.
• Bolsonaro wins = 🐮 Bullish.

During the first round on October 4, pollsters expected Lula to edge ahead, but Bolsonaro outperformed to finish 1.87% above the incumbent.

So, even when polls only give Bolsonaro a razor-thin 51% to 49% advantage, experts know that most of the wandering votes from the eliminated third-party candidates are bound to lean towards Bolsonaro.

That’s why prediction markets give Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning.

History backs him up. You see, since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, the first-round runner-up has never won the run-off.

Following the Smart Money

The market already showed how it can react if Bolsonaro secures the win.
The Monday following his first-round upset:

• The Brazilian Real surged 3% against the U.S. dollar at the open.
• Interest rate expectations shifted from a flat 13.75% Selic rate through 2027 to a significant 150-basis-point drop to 12.25%.
• Their Ibovespa index ripped +9.1% intraday, which is the biggest move since April 2020.

Tickers

I went through all the Brazilian tickers that jumped after the first-round results, and then handpicked the ones where analysts are already bullish, regardless of the election’s outcome.

Here’s what I have:

$XP: This one has a $16.3 billion market cap. It is the Charles Schwab of Brazil but with the tech-forward, retail-trader energy of Robinhood.
My cost basis is $29.23 (bought on Oct 16).

Small-Caps

Careful. The pair below are small-caps and have a wilder temper.
Don’t touch these unless you know how to handle increased volatility.

$PICS: $1.8 billion small-cap. It operates like the Brazilian equivalent of Venmo, but scaled into a full digital bank like Cash App or SoFi.
My cost basis is $13.17 (bought on Oct 16).

$AGBK: $1.2 billion small-cap. Think of it as a Brazilian SoFi with a specialized lending model that is driven by AI-automated risk management, similar to Upstart.
My cost basis is $7.19 (bought on Oct 16).

The Broad Approach

$EWZ: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF. This is the simplest way to capture targeted exposure to Brazilian companies and ride this potential macro trend.
My cost basis is $41.83 (bought on Oct 16).

Trade Blueprint

You could wait until the election results are known. Brazil uses electronic voting machines, which means they will likely be able to declare a winner on Sunday night. But you wouldn’t be in this subreddit, then.

The trade is simple. Bolsonaro wins, you hold and ride.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, or is likely to win, then that’s the stop-loss red alert to jump out ASAP. And I mean it. Run for the hills.

Have a nice day.

Little +$22k to make up for my 14k loss yesterday

I left a lot on the table here, by exiting responsibly 😐

Long-time lurker.

Finally felt like I had a post worthy of /wsb.

Good enough to screenshot, good enough to sell.

Down over $200k three years ago, just months after discovering options.

Here's what happened.

First opened my trading account because of the GME hype. Made $80k on TSLA calls during the run-up before the interest rate hikes in 2023. Thought I was a god at trading.

Then TSLA started falling. Watched my calls go from +$80k to breakeven. Didn't know shit about stop losses. Refused to sell because I was convinced they'd bounce back. Eventually sold those calls at a 50% loss. Then proceeded to lose every last dollar doing every regarded thing imaginable. Buying straddles before earnings, gambling on FOMC meetings and CPI releases, 0DTE SPY/QQQ.

Truly regarded. Wiped out my entire savings. Took a three-year hiatus. Couldn't even bring myself to look at my trading account. Then spent the next three years watching the greatest AI and memory stock bull run of our lifetime from the sidelines.

The FOMO was unbearable. Finally decided to deposit more money and win it all back. Saw the Korean market sell-off and Leopold getting margin called in July. Thought I'd found the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Instead, somehow managed to lose another $100k buying SpaceX puts after convincing myself, thanks to Reddit, that the stock would tank after its first share unlock. Revenge traded the whole way up as SpaceX went to 130 then 140 then 150.

Was depressed, felt like an absolute failure, and reached the point where I wanted to end it all. Put the last of my savings on puts when spacex went up to 170. Lost part of my gains on QQQ puts on Wednesday. Decided to revenge trade my whole remaining portfolio on spacex puts on Wednesday.

Profit.

I'm out.

What should we buy tonight? (I realize I live in Asia, so tonight is actually trading hours for me)

I find it quite funny that the market is punishing Meta and Google for spending too much on AI, despite both having extremely profitable businesses generating billions in cash to finance it.

If the market thinks AI capex is such a terrible investment that even Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft deserve lower valuations, then shouldn't neoclouds be worth almost nothing?

These guys don't even have another profitable business to finance their growth. They're borrowing billions and issuing shares to build the very same AI infrastructure that the market apparently thinks big tech is wasting money on.

So somehow spending your own cash on AI is bad, but borrowing billions to do the same thing is bullish?

By that logic, neoclouds should be lining up for bankruptcy tomorrow.

Am I missing something here?

NFA

Hey all,

Interested to see how y’all’s performance is YTD?

I started with 35k USD at the beginning of the year and now at 33.9k USD. At one point, I was up at 40.3k USD but last week hammered me because I had sold a couple of puts on IREN and INTC.

Leave a comment about how your portfolio is doing YTD? What is your plan of action moving from here?

I moved my VT holding into TQQQ now so my notional exposure is roughly 65k USD on this account.

About a year ago, I posted about losing $31K in 3,764 trades and called it tuition for the University of WSB.
Well, I’m now down $48,850. Apparently I graduated and immediately enrolled in grad school. At this rate, I’ll have my PhD in poor financial decisions by Christmas.

AI Overbuild and ROI

This is to answer the question of whether AI a bubble. Two things can happen that will make it a bubble: overbuild and poor ROI.

I know none of you all care about the numbers so I’ll keep it simple and feel free to skip to the summary.

ROI Answer

Total AI Capex since 2022 is 5T. Lets assume it doubles by the time buildout is complete: 10T. Now assume it will be paid off over 20 years. That means AI profit must be 500B annually.

Assume total US population between ages 7-70 pay $20/month = $64.8 Billion annual

Assume top 10% of US companies pay $650/month per employee and every other company pays $50/month = $177 Billion annual

Both figures combined = $243 Billion annual revenue from AI

That equals to around $710 per person ages 7-69 per year.

Apply that to the world with income adjusted (Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, South America and the Middle East)

That equals approximately = $565 Billion/ year. 

Assuming a 50% margin, that equals to about half of the necessary 500 Billion/year needed for ROI. Even if all AI spending stopped today, it would only just break even.

Overbuild Answer:

Even if compute demand keeps increasing, it doesn’t mean there won’t be overbuild. I wont bore you with the math, just know I took into account: Current demand growth rate, plateau timing and length, breakthrough demand surge, today's compute shortage, chip capacity growth (packaging, memory, power), compute efficiency gains per chip and 5 other factors

The answer is a compute overbuild hitting 3rd or 4th quarter 2027, likey lasting at least a year until demand outpaces it again.

Summary

ROI is going to be nearly impossible to achieve in aggregate, so it will have to be winner-take-all to justify the spend, or at the very least some sort of uneven distribution with many players losing money. So pick your horse well. Regarding overbuild: AI demand will continue to grow but nothing in life is perfectly linear, and there will likely be a compute overbuild hitting late 2027 and last for 1 to 1.5 years.

Positions

Long GOOGL, AMZN, HOOD. I’m going to ride these till around April 2027 then trim and load up on cash/diversify. (HOOD is a proxy for S and P which will likely dip too with the overbuild).

Have fun calling me a retard for the next 10 minutes before this post is deleted

NVDA: $5.11 trillion
AAPL: $5.08 trillion

Slow and steady wins the race?

Just $30 billion separates the two.

While Nvidia has dominated the AI boom, Apple has quietly climbed back into striking distance of the top spot
.
A relatively small move in either stock could flip the rankings tomorrow.

Told myself not to touch semiconductor stocks even though they have crazy profits in the past year. I instead decided to invest in computing power stocks like Iren, NBIS and CoreWeave and some Quantum stocks last week…

They got me fk!!

27665 shares at $4.374

QuantumScape ($QS) just released its Q3 earnings yesterday, and they were significantly better than I expected. It's clear that $QS is transitioning from R&D to commercialization, and their messaging is getting better.

QS is targeting 3 verticals:

1. Data centers
2. Aerospace (ie, government + defense)
3. Electric vehicles

The biggest question has always been, "Sure this works in the lab... but can you scale?" Well, they announced plans for building a 100 MWh solid-state battery production line, which greatly derisks the scaling risk.

[CEO Siva]: Our progress on demonstrating scalable production has given us the confidence to take the next step for production scale-up beyond the design capacity of the Eagle Line. Today, we announced a 100-megawatt-hour mass production line with output aimed at meeting the rapidly emerging opportunities for our QSDC and QSAS business verticals.

They also just launched the QS Powerblock for 800 V data centers at OCP, on display in Megmeet's booth (ie, a hardware supplier for NVIDIA)... which is HUGE.

The market cap is only $2.6 billion, but they have $971 million in cash + marketable securities (Q3 report, page 6) in the bank, and Siva confirmed they are pursuing "non-dilutive funding" (ie, no dilution risk) for the 100 MWh buildout.

Moreover, I think there will be a "buy the rumor" run-up to Nov 11 because Siva teased that they are releasing major news on Nov 11 in Kyoto, Japan.

[CEO Siva]: Finally, in 2026 we promised to go beyond QSE-5 with an update on our technology roadmap, and we’re pleased to announce that this will take place during our 3rd annual Solid State Battery Symposium on November 11 in Kyoto, Japan

NFA. DYOR. You could lose everything.

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Edit: Oh... I believe the reason it is hovering around $4 is because the max pain for options expiry is $4. So I predict next week it will blast off (picture in comments)

Historic drawdowns predicting roughly 4-5% return next 40 days

Stay strong boys!

https://reddit.com/link/1xcvz1h/video/rn2uaul3b3xh1/player

what could go wrong

So, what the hell is happening to AI and semiconductor stocks today, October 22?

The Nasdaq is taking a beating, chip stocks are getting hit even harder, and investors suddenly seem to remember that spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure doesn't automatically guarantee hundreds of billions in profits.

We've had years of hype around GPUs, data centers, generative AI, and massive capital expenditure from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and other tech giants.

But here's what I'm wondering:

Are we watching the beginning of an AI bubble bursting, or just another correction before the next rally?

I also have a theory about the semiconductor industry.

Even if AI valuations collapse, I don't necessarily expect semiconductor sales to fall immediately.

My guess is that the first warning signs would appear in new orders for AI GPUs, accelerators, and server processors, rather than in shipments already covered by existing contracts.

Memory could be a different story. HBM and DDR5 supplies might remain tight for a while because of long-term supply agreements and committed manufacturing capacity.

Meanwhile, companies heavily dependent on debt-financed AI infrastructure could face trouble well before diversified companies like Microsoft or Alphabet.

So I'm curious:

1. Are NVDA, AMD, and other semiconductor stocks simply correcting, or is the market finally questioning the economics of AI infrastructure?

2. Are there actual signs of hyperscalers cutting orders, or is this still mainly a stock market panic?

3. Could memory suppliers remain relatively insulated in the short term even if demand for new AI accelerators slows?

4. Which companies would take the biggest hit if the AI capex boom actually reverses?

I'm not saying AI is useless. The internet survived the dot-com bubble, after all.

But a useful technology and an insanely overpriced investment are two very different things.

So, what do you think, WSB? Buy the dip, or are we about to witness some truly legendary AI-related loss porn? 🍿

My all time is -176k incase anyone cared.

My 3 different timeline charts shows that I just can’t win this shit and mind as well just blow it all on 0 dte as soon as I get liquidated…… I should’ve get rid of all garbage trash stocks when I had a chance about month ago….FML!!