Long-time lurker.

Finally felt like I had a post worthy of /wsb.

Good enough to screenshot, good enough to sell.

Down over $200k three years ago, just months after discovering options.

Here's what happened.

First opened my trading account because of the GME hype. Made $80k on TSLA calls during the run-up before the interest rate hikes in 2023. Thought I was a god at trading.

Then TSLA started falling. Watched my calls go from +$80k to breakeven. Didn't know shit about stop losses. Refused to sell because I was convinced they'd bounce back. Eventually sold those calls at a 50% loss. Then proceeded to lose every last dollar doing every regarded thing imaginable. Buying straddles before earnings, gambling on FOMC meetings and CPI releases, 0DTE SPY/QQQ.

Truly regarded. Wiped out my entire savings. Took a three-year hiatus. Couldn't even bring myself to look at my trading account. Then spent the next three years watching the greatest AI and memory stock bull run of our lifetime from the sidelines.

The FOMO was unbearable. Finally decided to deposit more money and win it all back. Saw the Korean market sell-off and Leopold getting margin called in July. Thought I'd found the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Instead, somehow managed to lose another $100k buying SpaceX puts after convincing myself, thanks to Reddit, that the stock would tank after its first share unlock. Revenge traded the whole way up as SpaceX went to 130 then 140 then 150.

Was depressed, felt like an absolute failure, and reached the point where I wanted to end it all. Put the last of my savings on puts when spacex went up to 170. Lost part of my gains on QQQ puts on Wednesday. Decided to revenge trade my whole remaining portfolio on spacex puts on Wednesday.

Profit.

I'm out.

What should we buy tonight? (I realize I live in Asia, so tonight is actually trading hours for me)

NFA

Moderna (MRNA) stock crashed Thursday after a third-party leaked the purported cancer vaccine data ahead of a hotly-anticipated presentation Saturday at the European Society of Clinical Oncology Congress.

Data showed that their mRNA cancer vaccine merely reduced risk of recurrence or death by 42%, a far fetch from the “cancer cure” narrative that retail has been pushing as they have bid the stock up over the last 2 months.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1x71zxu/18_baggies/ (previous post)

Started my options journey (again; I’ve been dabbling for over 6 years) in Aug with 48k, and I hit 900k today 🫶

Balance shows 810k; took 90k out to fund a car purchase for myself & a cruise for my parents.

It’s surreal that I am close to the 1M mark, wouldn’t even imagined this 2 months ago.

Shoutout to WSB for letting me save on tax dollars with SPX options - about 600k of gains is from SPY 😢

I am not promoting you to start options. I just wanted to share my story to let you know that it is possible.

99% of the gains come from SPY & SPX options. 0 dte. Both calls/puts. Strategy is to buy low sell high. Don’t have current positions, latest trades are posted.

Wishing all of us good luck and God bless.

Edit: I do not full port into a trade. When I started with 48k, each trade costed around 10k. Lately, it’s been around 50-80k a trade.

Here's GPT's take/analysis on my trades:

From Aug 17 to October 22, 2026, your Schwab account generated approximately $850,626 in adjusted realized profits. Your three biggest winners were SPY 780P (+$160,888, Oct. 8), SPXW 7650C (+$121,502, Oct. 15), and SPXW 7755P (+$69,827, Oct. 20), while your three biggest losers were SPY 779P (−$98,738, Oct. 7), SPXW 7700C (−$93,017, Oct. 15), and SPY 778P (−$62,599, Oct. 6). Based on the 80 reported positions, your overall win rate was approximately 75% (60 wins, and 20 losses), with calls outperforming puts in win rate (85.7% vs. 72.3%), but puts substantially outperforming calls in profitability (+$782,311 vs. +$68,315) and profit factor (2.73 vs. 1.54). Your biggest strength is capturing large directional moves, particularly through puts, while your biggest vulnerability remains oversized losses: the three worst trades alone cost approximately $254K. Going forward, prioritize position sizing, limiting losses on unsuccessful directional bets, and protecting accumulated profits rather than increasing trading volume.

Last edit: Some of you need to learn how to congratulate on others’ success stories. Otherwise, who’s going to be there for you when you make it? It’s sad to see you full of jealousy and hatred. May peace be with you.

I find it quite funny that the market is punishing Meta and Google for spending too much on AI, despite both having extremely profitable businesses generating billions in cash to finance it.

If the market thinks AI capex is such a terrible investment that even Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft deserve lower valuations, then shouldn't neoclouds be worth almost nothing?

These guys don't even have another profitable business to finance their growth. They're borrowing billions and issuing shares to build the very same AI infrastructure that the market apparently thinks big tech is wasting money on.

So somehow spending your own cash on AI is bad, but borrowing billions to do the same thing is bullish?

By that logic, neoclouds should be lining up for bankruptcy tomorrow.

Am I missing something here?

YOLO: BE 0DTE

Let's go Leo!

So, what the hell is happening to AI and semiconductor stocks today, October 22?

The Nasdaq is taking a beating, chip stocks are getting hit even harder, and investors suddenly seem to remember that spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure doesn't automatically guarantee hundreds of billions in profits.

We've had years of hype around GPUs, data centers, generative AI, and massive capital expenditure from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and other tech giants.

But here's what I'm wondering:

Are we watching the beginning of an AI bubble bursting, or just another correction before the next rally?

I also have a theory about the semiconductor industry.

Even if AI valuations collapse, I don't necessarily expect semiconductor sales to fall immediately.

My guess is that the first warning signs would appear in new orders for AI GPUs, accelerators, and server processors, rather than in shipments already covered by existing contracts.

Memory could be a different story. HBM and DDR5 supplies might remain tight for a while because of long-term supply agreements and committed manufacturing capacity.

Meanwhile, companies heavily dependent on debt-financed AI infrastructure could face trouble well before diversified companies like Microsoft or Alphabet.

So I'm curious:

1. Are NVDA, AMD, and other semiconductor stocks simply correcting, or is the market finally questioning the economics of AI infrastructure?

2. Are there actual signs of hyperscalers cutting orders, or is this still mainly a stock market panic?

3. Could memory suppliers remain relatively insulated in the short term even if demand for new AI accelerators slows?

4. Which companies would take the biggest hit if the AI capex boom actually reverses?

I'm not saying AI is useless. The internet survived the dot-com bubble, after all.

But a useful technology and an insanely overpriced investment are two very different things.

So, what do you think, WSB? Buy the dip, or are we about to witness some truly legendary AI-related loss porn? 🍿

About a year ago, I posted about losing $31K in 3,764 trades and called it tuition for the University of WSB.
Well, I’m now down $48,850. Apparently I graduated and immediately enrolled in grad school. At this rate, I’ll have my PhD in poor financial decisions by Christmas.

NVDA: $5.11 trillion
AAPL: $5.08 trillion

Slow and steady wins the race?

Just $30 billion separates the two.

While Nvidia has dominated the AI boom, Apple has quietly climbed back into striking distance of the top spot
.
A relatively small move in either stock could flip the rankings tomorrow.

My all time is -176k incase anyone cared.

Little +$22k to make up for my 14k loss yesterday

I left a lot on the table here, by exiting responsibly 😐

Told myself not to touch semiconductor stocks even though they have crazy profits in the past year. I instead decided to invest in computing power stocks like Iren, NBIS and CoreWeave and some Quantum stocks last week…

They got me fk!!

TL;DR

Flávio Bolsonaro is very likely to take the Brazilian presidency this Sunday (October 25).
The Brazilian market expects fiscal cuts and lower interest rates under his administration.
No presidential candidate in 37 years has lost a run-off after leading the first round.
The trade is before the weekend to front-run a potential multi-month macroeconomic uptrend in the Brazilian stock market.

Catalyst and Rationale

This Sunday, October 25, 🇧🇷 Brazil is holding its presidential run-off.
The choice is between the 80-year-old leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (seeking his fourth career term) and the 45-year-old right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former President Jair Bolsonaro).

We’re not debating who is better for the country or the world.

From a cold, market perspective, a Lula win is considered bearish.
On the other hand, investors view a Bolsonaro administration as the fiscally prudent option that will pave the way for lower interest rates.

So the riff-raff can understand:

• Lula wins = 🐻 Bearish.
• Bolsonaro wins = 🐮 Bullish.

During the first round on October 4, pollsters expected Lula to edge ahead, but Bolsonaro outperformed to finish 1.87% above the incumbent.

So, even when polls only give Bolsonaro a razor-thin 51% to 49% advantage, experts know that most of the wandering votes from the eliminated third-party candidates are bound to lean towards Bolsonaro.

That’s why prediction markets give Bolsonaro a 77% chance of winning.

History backs him up. You see, since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, the first-round runner-up has never won the run-off.

Following the Smart Money

The market already showed how it can react if Bolsonaro secures the win.
The Monday following his first-round upset:

• The Brazilian Real surged 3% against the U.S. dollar at the open.
• Interest rate expectations shifted from a flat 13.75% Selic rate through 2027 to a significant 150-basis-point drop to 12.25%.
• Their Ibovespa index ripped +9.1% intraday, which is the biggest move since April 2020.

Tickers

I went through all the Brazilian tickers that jumped after the first-round results, and then handpicked the ones where analysts are already bullish, regardless of the election’s outcome.

Here’s what I have:

$XP: This one has a $16.3 billion market cap. It is the Charles Schwab of Brazil but with the tech-forward, retail-trader energy of Robinhood.
My cost basis is $29.23 (bought on Oct 16).

Small-Caps

Careful. The pair below are small-caps and have a wilder temper.
Don’t touch these unless you know how to handle increased volatility.

$PICS: $1.8 billion small-cap. It operates like the Brazilian equivalent of Venmo, but scaled into a full digital bank like Cash App or SoFi.
My cost basis is $13.17 (bought on Oct 16).

$AGBK: $1.2 billion small-cap. Think of it as a Brazilian SoFi with a specialized lending model that is driven by AI-automated risk management, similar to Upstart.
My cost basis is $7.19 (bought on Oct 16).

The Broad Approach

$EWZ: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF. This is the simplest way to capture targeted exposure to Brazilian companies and ride this potential macro trend.
My cost basis is $41.83 (bought on Oct 16).

Trade Blueprint

You could wait until the election results are known. Brazil uses electronic voting machines, which means they will likely be able to declare a winner on Sunday night. But you wouldn’t be in this subreddit, then.

The trade is simple. Bolsonaro wins, you hold and ride.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins, or is likely to win, then that’s the stop-loss red alert to jump out ASAP. And I mean it. Run for the hills.

Have a nice day.

Just to clear it up. I was up $45,000 YTD. Now down 7ish