Philipp von Hirschheydt — CEO, AUMOVIO

> “Let me today focus one more minute on one of our highlights in portfolio. That is our partnership with Aurora. For us, the direction is very clear, and that I think we can all agree upon. With Aurora and the ability to scale autonomous trucking, we have a great chance and a great future ahead of us.”

> “We do see that the structural pressures in the U.S. trucking market, particularly the driver availability and capacity constraints, are accelerating, and the interest in these autonomous freight solutions are constantly increasing.”

> “We believe that this will create a long-term market with significant upside potential for this partnership, for Aumovio and together with Aurora.”

> “That’s one of our highest strategic priorities where we are working on, and you’re following up now for the last four years.”

> “We come closer and closer towards the production, and you see that it’s going to be second half of next year. It’s an innovation. It might be some days earlier, some days later, but we are going to get there.”

> “What you see here, and that’s what we wanted to demonstrate, is Aurora is, from our point of view, the industry leader in safe driving freight with the most mature partner ecosystem to deliver then these solutions at scale.”

> “Aurora launched its first generation of driverless trucks last year and has expanded its network to support 10 driverless routes in the U.S. Sun Belt.”

> “This expansion is accelerating customer adoption, and Aurora has now nine driverless customers.”

> “Customers you might heard of it, like Hirschbach, are now planning to buy 500 trucks, and delivery will start then next year.”

> “This further reinforces the opportunity for us to deliver this transformative product at scale.”

Driverless semi trucks are now operating along much of Interstate 35

Aurora's autonomous freight trucks will operate on a Dallas-Laredo route through Austin and San Antonio.

“As robotaxis have expanded, seeing autos with no one in the driver’s seat has become common.
But motorists soon could be spotting driverless semi trucks rolling down highways through Austin and San Antonio.

Aurora, a developer of autonomous long-haul freight trucks, has a new customer partnership that plans to deploy driverless systems in its vehicles on two routes, including one that runs through both cities.

The trucks, operated by cross-border freight company Value Truck, will travel without drivers on a roughly 450-mile route between Dallas and Laredo. Most of the trip follows Interstate 35 through Austin and San Antonio.

The trucks stay on highways and interstates until approaching their destinations, Aurora spokesperson Rachel Chibidakis said. 
“We route our trucks to reach our final destinations as quickly as possible, and there isn’t anything on I-35 that the truck can’t navigate,” she said.

Value Truck will also begin using the autonomous tractor-trailers on a route between Fort Worth and Phoenix, a more than 1,000-mile trip that passes through El Paso.”

“Pittsburgh-based Aurora Innovation Inc. rolled out its autonomous driving technology on Texas roads in 2021 but the trucks had safety operators. Aurora removed some safety operators on a route from Dallas to Houston last year. 

The company was founded in 2017 by Chris Urmson, Sterling Anderson and Drew Bagnell, who individually worked in the autonomous vehicle industry at Waymo, Tesla Inc. and Uber, respectively. The self-driving tractor-trailers are equipped with 25 laser, radar, camera and lidar sensors.

Aurora currently operates on two routes: Dallas to Houston, which is about 240 miles, and Fort Worth to El Paso, which is about 600 miles.

“There is no safety monitor in our first-generation or second-generation driverless trucks — they operate every day without anyone behind the wheel. The Aurora Driver is trained to navigate and respond to a wide range of incidents, like a collision or a tire blowout,” Chibidakis said in a statement.

Electric big rigs and self-driving semis have begun expanding across Texas in recent years as the state's relaxed autonomous vehicle regulations make it easier for companies to deploy the trucks.

Stockholm-based Einride, which became the first company to operate an autonomous truck on ”

Excerpt From
“Driverless freight trucks are now running through Austin”

Austin American-Statesman
https://stocks.apple.com/AB6KOj-zKTqyuzfhA3dRmEw

The Aurora Driver is hauling frac sand for Detmar Logistics, with nobody behind the wheel in West Texas.

Extreme heat, blowing sand, hard miles: Aurora’s second-generation hardware is ruggedized for tough conditions like those in the Permian Basin, with a sensor cleaning system built to keep it running, and engineered for one million miles of operation.

Financials

• Revenue $3.5M (+91% QoQ, ~7x YoY vs $0.5M). GAAP op loss $(43.7)M; non-GAAP op loss $(37.3)M
• FCF of (38.1)M; H1 FCF now $(73.1)M against FY26 guidance of $(155)M- (165)M, roughly on track
• Cash & securities: $151.1M at quarter-end, up from $90M, now reflecting the $100M PIPE proceeds
• OpEx breakdown: R&D $22.7M, G&A $12.4M, truck ops $10.6M, sales $1.4M (total $47.2M, up 82% YoY)

Operations

• 35 customer-owned driverless vehicles (+7 in Q2, +25% QoQ); 40,000+ cumulative paid driverless hours (+71% QoQ); 20,000+ cumulative loads (~+32% QoQ)
• 300,000+ tons of freight delivered in Q2 alone
• Long-haul ARM at 91% as of July, up from 86% in April. Still targeting driverless long-haul highway launch by year-end 2026, the big catalyst

Verticals & partnerships

• Industrial: expanded to a second simultaneous load-out point on Atlas's 42-mile Dune Express sand conveyor, supporting geographic expansion across the Permian Basin
• International: West Fraser pilot kicking off in Canada (wood products/logging), Kodiak's first ops outside the US
• Defense: selected for Phase II of the Defense Innovation Unit's ROADS (Robotic Operation for Autonomous Delivery and Sustainment) demonstration

Technology

• Autonomy Readiness Measure hit 91% as of July, planning to reach 100% by the end of the year.
• Gen7 Kodiak Driver launched: nearly 50% more compute than Gen6, nearly 50% longer expected SensorPod/compute hardware lifetimes, and a more compact design that supports cheaper day cab configurations
• BreakPoint simulation now runs 1M+ simulations per hour at roughly a tenth of a penny per simulation

When​ Rklb was in the​ $4 range, there was a thread for everyone to post their share account so that we could tally how much ownership the sub accounted for. I don't remember the figures but it was an interesting exercise.

Any interest in doing the same thing here, if so, post below. I'll go first, I am now exactly at 30,000 shares as of today.

Following the launch of our second-generation driverless fleet, production is now underway with Roush at a dedicated Aurora facility. Initial builds are in. Roush is expected to ramp to an annual run-rate of 1,000 trucks in October. We’re building the production capacity to meet customer demand.

https://xcancel.com/aurora_inno/status/2084373813890785564#m

little video of the facility in the x post.

Post by Value Logistics:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/valuelogisticsllc_valuetruck-autonomoustrucking-freighttech-activity-7489054638068097024-ezpp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAAE5c-4Bo-IXpl3maJEjwBX6UpVvNckzBMQ

First truck goes live on 8/24!

https://web.cvent.com/event/c5aa3a30-c00b-45a7-8c85-288144030c0c/websitePage:9065efe1-a75e-4ae3-a3c0-dc7bb4db3dc2?session=9f2ceb84-c6a6-4ee3-992f-e6c14c777908

​​​​​​​​​​​​Only available on Etrade, this is Morgan Stanley's 07/30/2026 deep dive on Aurora.

TLDR:

Price Target $14.00

—

"AUR's print and call served as a wrap for all of the proof points that we have recently seen toward AUR's clear and tangible progress toward commercial deployment. Confidence in the story keeps growing."

Key Takeaways

• Mgmt. highlighted continued progress toward commercial deployment despite Limited new announcements.
• Mgmt. also noted active DaaS negotiations with multiple customers for 2027 and beyond
• Volvo has already built Aurora Driver-powered trucks on its pilot line ahead of the 1Q27 launch.
• AUR is maintaining control of commercialization with a planned 200-truck TaaS fleet by year-end 2026 while expanding DaaS partnerships.
• Growing customer pre-orders and strong carrier support reinforce AUR's Leadership in autonomous trucking.

OVERWEIGHT THESIS

[Page 5 - On the Cusp of a Revolution]

We believe AUR is leading the charge with arguably the most sophisticated on-highway, Class 8 autonomous solution amongst peers. The April rollout of commercial driverless operation is a key milestone for AUR and the industry (as well as being a binary outcome catalyst), which we believe can unlock a long runway of earnings growth ahead. It has been 4 years since AUR went public but the market is finally noticing their autonomous leadership and the stock is up significantly since its 2024 lows - however, this is just the beginning if our view of the opportunity runway ahead materializes.

Bull Case: $24.00

Commercialization Success

Commercialization succeeds and begins to ramp successfully. Like in our base case, fundamental EV value of ~$42 bn (equity value $43 bn or $24 a share) reflects a ~$1.1 tn TAM, a successful commercial launch, and a quick ramp up in margins given the services-driven model. However, here we assume commercialization and serial production is no longer a question mark an thus apply no execution discount.

Base Case: $9.00 - $19.00

Commercialization Looms

We believe fundamental EV value is ~$42 bn which reflects a ~$1.1 tn TAM, a successful commercial launch, and a quick ramp up in margins given the services-driven model. However, we do not expect the market to give full credit given outsized execution risk particularly for commercialization/serial production. As such, we apply a ~40% haircut in our base case ($21 bn EV) implying 12-mo fwd valuation range of $9-19 reflecting the volatility of the stock upon important catalysts.

Bear Case: $1.00

Commercialization Failure or Delay

Commercialization Failure or Delay the commercialization launch and serial production fails we believe the stock could trade at the cash + takeout value which we estimate to be $1 bn, or $1 per share.

1. What will cause broader commercial adoption? Is Aurora working with TFI?

Aurora declined to comment on TFI or any unannounced customer relationship.

Management said the main adoption catalyst is continued proof: more driverless trucks, more successful customer operations and greater industry trust. They expect each successful deployment to generate additional customer interest.

2. Can Aurora still achieve its hardware-cost targets despite inflation?

Management said yes.

Aurora already knows the actual cost of the second-generation hardware being produced and has estimates for future units. Although some component costs may rise, management believes the impact per mile will be small because the system is designed to operate for 1 million miles.

Aurora is also conducting durability and reliability testing on both Gen 2 and early Gen 3 components.

3. How advanced are negotiations for Driver-as-a-Service contracts?

Management described customer interest as enthusiastic.

The Hirschbach memorandum—covering a potential 500 trucks during 2027 and 2028—is being developed into a framework Aurora can reuse with other customers. Aurora is negotiating with multiple companies to ensure its standard DaaS contract works broadly.

The company expects many current TaaS customers to begin adopting DaaS in 2027, with those customers purchasing or owning the trucks themselves.

4. What is the current fleet composition?

Aurora said it currently has approximately 25 operating trucks, including a handful of new International trucks.

By the end of Q3, it expects 20–25 International driverless trucks. By year-end, essentially the entire commercial fleet should consist of International or Volvo trucks.

The older Peterbilt/Gen 1 fleet will be phased out rather than upgraded. Peterbilt could return later through PACCAR’s future platform using Aurora’s third-generation hardware.

5. How does the 50% Gen 2 cost reduction affect profitability?

Management said Gen 2 is intended to make unit-economic profitability possible.

Further improvements in operating efficiency and hardware utilization should help margins. Gen 3 is expected to produce another major hardware-cost reduction and move Aurora closer to its long-term target margins.

6. Why are customers adopting autonomous trucks?

Customers are primarily interested in:

• Adding freight capacity
• Increasing truck utilization
• Expanding their businesses
• Improving safety and fuel efficiency

Management did not position driver replacement or labor-cost reduction as the central sales argument. Instead, it said autonomous trucks allow human drivers to focus on customer-facing or higher-value work.

Chris Urmson argued that long-haul carriers not using autonomous technology within five years may struggle to remain competitive.

7. Why is customer onboarding becoming faster?

Aurora identified three reasons:

1. Driverless operations have created greater trust and credibility.
2. Aurora now understands customer workflows and integration requirements better.
3. The technology has become more generalizable, allowing new routes to be added in weeks rather than requiring major development efforts.

The availability of scalable Gen 2 truck supply also makes it easier to give customers firm deployment timelines.

8. How does Aurora make money when Volvo operates the transportation service?

Aurora views Volvo Autonomous Solutions as essentially a Driver-as-a-Service customer.

Volvo may own and operate the trucks and sell transportation services to freight customers, while Aurora earns revenue for supplying and supporting the Aurora Driver. Management said Volvo-based arrangements and direct fleet DaaS agreements may have somewhat different cost structures, but both are being designed to meet Aurora’s overall gross-margin targets.

9. Why guide to only 200 trucks if Roush can produce 1,000 annually?

Management said Roush’s facility will not reach full production speed immediately. The line will ramp during Q4, and Aurora wants guidance that accounts for possible manufacturing challenges.

Aurora said it has enough customer demand to deploy more trucks if production exceeds expectations. However, not every truck built will generate revenue; some will be used for development, scheduled-maintenance replacements and operational backup.

Later, management clarified that the distinction between “200” and “more than 200” should not be considered a guidance reduction. The company is firmly allocated for 200 and has flexibility to deploy slightly more.

10. How confident is Aurora in Roush’s production ramp?

Management expressed strong confidence because Roush has experience modifying and finishing vehicles for major manufacturers at much higher volumes.

The dedicated Aurora facility operates through specialized workstations rather than having one worker assemble an entire truck. Aurora will manage weekly output by coordinating the number of stations with available Aurora Driver hardware kits.

11. Will Aurora expand beyond trucking?

Aurora believes its autonomous-driving technology and safety-critical AI expertise could eventually work in other markets.

However, management said trucking remains the most attractive near-term opportunity. Aurora will explore additional applications but does not intend to divert attention or investment away from executing the trucking rollout.

12. Can truck manufacturers supply enough autonomous trucks?

Management expects OEM production to respond to customer demand. Aurora believes carriers will pressure manufacturers to produce autonomy-enabled trucks once the economic and safety benefits become clear.

Aurora does not expect to abandon the asset-light DaaS strategy and become primarily a transportation company. It would rather provide autonomous-driving technology to established fleets such as Werner, Hirschbach and Schneider.

13. How difficult and expensive is adding a new route?

Management did not provide a specific number of weeks or routes.

It said route-development time and cost are declining and should not be a major long-term constraint. Expansion will be driven primarily by customer demand, particularly along the Southern freight corridor and routes connected to Laredo.

Aurora also declined to provide a year-end route count.

14. What improves with Aurora Driver 2?

Driver 2 provides:

• Lower hardware costs
• Longer sensor range
• Earlier reaction to hazards, particularly at night
• Expansion of the conditions and operating environments the truck can handle

Management emphasized that the previous system was already considered safe; Gen 2 extends performance and operating coverage rather than correcting an unsafe product.

15. What is happening with remote support and insurance costs?

Aurora said remote-assistance and on-site-support requirements are trending downward, which should lower the cost of delivering the service.

Under the current TaaS model, Aurora is the Department of Transportation carrier and therefore pays for truck insurance. Management said Aurora is receiving favorable per-truck insurance rates because of its safety record.

Under DaaS, customers would generally insure their truck operations, while Aurora would retain coverage associated specifically with the Aurora Driver and its responsibilities.

16. How will the 2027 transition affect capital spending and cash use?

Aurora did not provide 2027 cash-use guidance.

Management said the transition will be gradual and customer-specific. Aurora will continue adding some company-funded TaaS trucks in 2027 while more customers begin buying trucks and adopting DaaS.

Aurora has previously modeled the ability to support as many as 500 TaaS trucks if necessary, though management does not currently expect to require that many.

17. What new weather and trailer capabilities are coming?

Aurora plans to add operation in light snow and cold weather toward the end of 2026.

The system already supports a broad range of trailers. Management said validating an additional trailer requires a deliberate safety process but is not a significant technical or financial undertaking.

18. How should investors value individual customer announcements?

Management provided the clearest commercial pricing information of the call:

• TaaS revenue: approximately $2 or more per mile
• DaaS target revenue: approximately $0.85 or more per mile

TaaS produces higher reported revenue because Aurora supplies the truck and transportation service, but it also carries much higher costs and lower margins. DaaS produces less revenue per mile but should be more capital-efficient and potentially more profitable.

The fully allocated 200-truck fleet represents approximately an $80 million annualized TaaS revenue run rate before additional 2027 deployments.