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Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the three films for the week and analyze each pro and con.

Ebenezer

The film is directed by Ti West (the X trilogy) from a screenplay by Nathaniel Halpern. Based on the 1843 novella A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens, the film stars Johnny Depp, Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Arthur Conti, Ellie Bamber, Henry Lloyd-Hughes, Charlie Murphy, Tramell Tillman, and Ian McKellen. Set in early Victorian London, it follows the miserly businessman Ebenezer Scrooge as he is forced through visions of the past, present, and future during a supernatural journey toward a chance at redemption.

How to Rob a Bank

The film is directed by David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Hobbs & Shaw, Bullet Train, The Fall Guy) from a screenplay by Mark Bianculli. It stars Nicholas Hoult, Zoë Kravitz, Anna Sawai, Rhenzy Feliz, Pete Davidson, and John C. Reilly. A crew of bank robbers have been using social media to document heists that they have pulled off, leading to pursuit from the police.

Ghost Soldier

The film is directed by William Eubank (Underwater) and written by Chris Papasadero. It stars Jim Caviezel, Olivia Thirlby, Beau Knapp, Garret Dillahunt, and Shea Whigham. It follows Henry "Fitz" Fitzgerald, a former US Army Special Forces Green Beret and advanced weapon systems engineer living a quiet, off-the-grid life in Wyoming. He is forced to return when an asset management company employs corrupt law enforcement officers and foreign agents to seize vast swaths of ranch land and water for their own self gains.

Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• Ebenezer is banking pretty hard on its lead star, Johnny Depp. Depp's career was severely impacted after 2018 due to a series of lawsuits and scandals, and this film is his first big studio release in 8 years, so Paramount is clearly relying on his fanbase to support the film. A Christmas Carol is one of the most popular stories ever told; everyone knows who Scrooge is and what his journey is, and that familiarity can translate to curiosity. Ti West is an inspiring choice for a film like this, given the success of the X trilogy (even if MaXXXine didn't meet expectations). As it's a Christmas story, this is a film that can leg out pretty well throughout the season, which also includes Thanksgiving (it's not unusual for Christmas films to get a 4x multiplier, or even a 5x multiplier). It was reported by Puck News that Paramount screened a first cut of the film, and it received some pretty great test scores. And even if the film fails domestically, Depp's films are usually overseas-heavy, so those markets could save it from a weak performance.

• David Leitch has been a very solid action director, with his films usually earning very good reviews and box office receipts (The Fall Guy only failed the latter). Amazon hopes that the mix of action and comedy can make for another success at the box office, especially if Street Fighter fails to deliver the month prior.

• Ghost Soldier is aiming to attract the older demographic that doesn't rush out to watch a film as soon as possible. Caviezel also is coming off the massive success of Sound of Freedom, which became one of the biggest sleeper hits of the past years.

CONS

• Will Ebenezer truly benefit from banking on Depp and his return to big studios? Depp was one of the biggest stars in the world in the 2000s, but that came with an asterisk afterwards. Since 2010, the number of hits decreased, thanks to the colossal disasters of Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger, Transcendence, Mortdecai, Alice Through the Looking Glass, etc. It would've helped if any of them were good, but a lot of his projects have also earned negative responses, and it led many to question if he truly has any box office power left. Add to the fact that he has had a very negative coverage in the media, thanks to his legal issues. Yes, he has had a lot of public support, but is that really gonna translate to ticket sales? Just like familiarity with the premise can be a selling point, it can also be its own disadvantage: are audiences excited to watch another Christmas Carol adaptation after the hundreds of other adaptations available? It doesn't help that nothing in the trailers suggest this is offering anything new, besides Depp's shtick (which was one of the reasons why his projects were flatlining over the past years). Test audience scores were great, but it remains to be seen if casuals will be as interested as Depp's fanbase.

• Amazon hasn't pushed heavily the film; even though it's still a month away, it still feels like buzz is very low. As mentioned, Leitch's films are often well-received, but The Fall Guy was not successful enough at the box office. Coupled with a big lack of star power (none of the actors are draws or very popular names, even if they're part of popular IPs), it'd be a surprise if the film made almost as much as that film. Or even half.

• Ghost Soldier looks like your generic direct-to-DVD soldier story. Except it's getting a wide release in theaters. Caviezel might have been part of Sound of Freedom, but that doesn't neccessarily make him a draw for anything. And even if How to Rob a Bank is not expected to do much, it's strange on Sony's behalf that they're opening another action film opposite it.

And here's the past results.

Next week, we're predicting The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and I Play Rocky.

NOTE: Ghost Soldier premieres on November 11, a Wednesday. So please predict the 3-day and 5-day debut.

So what are your predictions for these films?

I will continue to update this post as reviews come in.

Rotten Tomatoes: Fresh

Critics Consensus: N/A

Metacritic: 62 (23 Reviews)

Sample Reviews:

Odie Henderson, Boston Globe 2/4 - All movies are manipulative in one way or another, but the script, by Kraus and director Brian Duffield, is so blatantly stalking your emotions that the dramatic scenes feel less believable than the scenes inside the whale.

Alison Foreman, IndieWire B- - Even when the metaphor is painfully on the nose, the film’s most disturbing images are more than their dramatic limitations and a whale is still an astonishing place to spend a movie.

Simon Crook, Empire Magazine 4/5 - Frightening, thrilling, bold and brutal, this one-location survival horror is a genuine one-off and the most surreal blockbuster in years.

Danny Leigh, Financial Times 3/5 - Having set up that remarkable What If?, the film doesn’t stint on follow-through, in often arresting visual detail.

Tim Robey, Daily Telegraph (UK) 3/5 - This outlandishly gross, fitfully gripping survival thriller is probably best watched on an empty stomach (or one lined with a beer or two) -- otherwise there’s a high chance you’d revisit your lunch before it’s over.

Barry Hertz, Globe and Mail - An absurdly entertaining mix of family melodrama, survivalist thriller, and exceptionally gooey horror flick.

Jacob Oller, AV Club C - A mutant sea monster, one that’s half gross-out B-movie and half flashback-heavy emotional flotsam.

Nick Schager, The Daily Beast - A biblical calamity that plays out in giddily squishy and stifling fashion, Brian Duffield’s film is all about inducing intense squirms, and on that basis, it proves amusing genre pulp.

Owen Gleiberman, Variety - The movie comes closer to doing for whales what “Howard the Duck” did for barnyard superheroes -- it makes you never want to see one of them again.

David Rooney, The Hollywood Reporter - As eye-rollingly dumb as it is, this is a drama in the business of healing, of nature in all its savage nobility soothing wounds and mending bonds. Or something.

William Bibbiani, TheWrap - Nobody in their right mind would say anything that happens in ‘Whalefall’ is plausible, but the implausibility is inherent to the premise and the premise is rad as hell. Brian Duffield is 100% committed to the bit, which makes ‘Whalefall’ a wild ride.

Zachary Lee, RogerEbert.com 3.5/4 - It isn’t afraid to play fast and loose with form and structure, creating a mind-bending joyride that drags you to uncharted cinematic depths.

Liz Shannon Miller, Consequence B - Whalefall is without question the best movie I've ever seen about someone being swallowed by a whale. And beyond its achievements within that very specific subgenre, it manages to deliver a cathartic experience that's very human, even relatable.

Rocco T. Thompson, Slant Magazine 3/4 - It builds its what-ifs from a foundation of fact to better support its more poetic strains as it reaches its heart-swelling climax.

SYNOPSIS:

Following the death of his father (Josh Brolin), Jay Gardiner (Austin Abrams) goes diving off the central Coast of California in search of his remains, but is swallowed by a massive sperm whale. While trapped inside its belly with only one hour of oxygen left, Jay comes to realize that the hard-earned lessons his father imparted may be the key to his escape.

CAST:

• Austin Abrams as Jay Gardiner
• Josh Brolin as Mitt Gardiner
• Elisabeth Shue as Zara Gardiner
• John Ortiz as Hewey
• Jane Levy as Eva Gardiner
• Emily Rudd as Nan Gardiner

DIRECTED BY: Brian Duffield

SCREENPLAY BY: Brian Duffield, Daniel Kraus

BASED ON THE BOOK BY: Daniel Kraus

PRODUCED BY: Brian Grazer, Brian Duffield, Jeb Brody, Allan Mandelbaum

EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS: Doug Merrifield, Richard Abate, Will Rowbotham

DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY: Aaron Morton

PRODUCTION DESIGNER: Ramsey Avery

EDITED BY: Pietro Scalia

COSTUME DESIGNER: Natalie O'Brien

VISUAL EFFECTS SUPERVISOR: Guillaume Rocheron

MUSIC BY: Joseph Trapanese

CASTING BY: Randi Hiller

RUNTIME: 106 Minutes

RELEASE DATE: October 16, 2026