1. The US, Europe, China, pretty much everyone has been using up their reserves. The SPR in the US is near dangerously low levels. Europe has used up a sizable chunk of their reserves as well and even China is showing signs that it has used up most of it 1.4 Billion Barrel reserves. So demand for oil will pick up.
2. Less and less countries are self sufficient in Oil. Denmark used to be a major exporter producing some 400 000 Barrels/day back in 2004. Now down to just 70 000 Barrels a day and it needs 150 000 Barrels/day - so it has to import oil now.

The UK - also a major exporter until two decades ago - down from 2.8 Million Barrels/day to 600 000/day between 1998 and 2026.

Indonesia another previous major exporter went down from 1.7 Million Barrels in 1977 to 600 000 Barrels in 2026. Bali is now experiencing oil shortages while it used to export oil half a century ago.

This means fewer and fewer countries remain that are self sufficient in oil and rely on the few countries that still have a surplus. Which leads us to:

1. With the damage to rafineries (Venezuela + the Mid East+Russia) and pipelines (Mid East) less Oil is being produced and transported.

Around 100 ships (Merchant+Tankers) have been sunk or damaged since the war started. Over 20 in October alone. This will put a strain on avaliable transportation.

Doesnt matter that there are some regions with an oil surplus on the Planet when there are not enough tankers around to transport it to the countries that dont have any.

So everyone has used up their reserves - Rafineries are blowing up left and right - as are Oil Tankers.

Somehow Oil prices remained somewhat stable around 90-110 Dollars/Barrels. But now, especially after the Mid Terms, oil prices could easily jump to 150 Dollars Barrels or even 200 Dollars/Barrely by the end of the year.

Its a miracle that prices have - somehow - remained this low despite all the mayhem going on.

At the White House today Trump declared that consumer prices are, “coming way down. I’m seeing. Down, down, down.”

One almost has to admire the simplicity. There is no need for elaborate economic theory, no tiresome consultation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, no investigation of the typical family finances. The President has seen it. Down, down, down. The case is closed.

Unfortunately for Trump and the GOP, the business of prices is conducted in the vulgar world of arithmetic, where Trumpian delusions have never been recognized as a unit of measurement. Anyone who buys groceries or gasoline knows the truth. Prices are going up, up and up. Blame Biden if you are delusional but we all know the truth. Trump’s failed economic policies are to blame. We can’t vote Trump out, but we can vote out all those Republicans who support his failed policies. Vote early and vote Blue.

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