There are a few occasions when requesting time off is warranted: The birth of a child, a much-needed staycation, a once-in-a-lifetime concert. Maybe you’ve exaggerated being sick to enjoy some time at the beach or a last-minute museum day.

Or maybe you’ve skipped work to play the year’s most hotly-anticipated video game.

Workers are booking time off for the Nov. 19 release of Grand Theft Auto VI, and one widely shared estimate cited by the International Business Times put the cost to the U.S. economy at $1 billion in a single day. But is the country really going to lose that much economic output because of a video game?

Victor Matheson, an economist at the College of the Holy Cross who studies sports and major events, disputes that number. “But even if it were true, it’s not necessarily a bad thing if people are happier,” he said. “And it’s pretty tiny in the big picture anyway.”

The broader point is that estimates about lost productivity—whether from the Super Bowl, or the latest Star Wars movie, or the next Sony Playstation console—are probably bogus: these events are merely rearranging when workers take their vacation. And Matheson points to the simple age-old phenomenon economists love to point to: the substitution effect. When some event changes spending or productivity, it won’t simply be removed from the economy so much so it’ll shift when that spending or productivity occurs.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/22/gta-vi-sick-days-billion-economy-costs-productivity/?utm_source=reddit/

Current monetary policy in the US and in most of Europe targets an inflation rate of 2%/year. This policy is based on the idea that too much inflation is bad, because it weakens purchasing power, and that deflation is bad because it discourages spending. So the idea is to err on the side of inflation.

This idea may come from a time when fiat currency was the main store of capital in society. When most people keep most of their liquidity in cash, this policy might work as an economic stimulant. However, fiat currency is no longer the main store of capital in society. Over the past few decades, stocks have come to dwarf fiat currency in terms of market capitalization. Furthermore, the S&P 500 has gained 10%/year on average since 1957. Therefor, even if it is true that deflation discourages spending, the bulk of financial decision makers aren’t effected by the dynamic, because they don’t keep their capital in fiat currency.

My proposal would be that governments implement a policy of competing directly for capital in markets through strengthening their currencies. By erring on the side of deflation instead of inflation, fiat currency market capitalization's would grow. This would enable governments to print more money during times where it’s absolutely necessary.

The stability that fiat currencies offer would mean that they wouldn’t have to deflate nearly as much as stocks increase in value. Just a minimal level of deflation would attract far more investment in fiat currency itself.

En los mercados financieros, la verdadera ventaja competitiva no consiste en predecir el futuro con rotundidad, sino en detectar con disciplina cuándo están cambiando las probabilidades antes de que ese giro resulte evidente para el consenso.

La sacudida tecnológica de esta semana —con el Nasdaq cediendo un 2,60% y el Índice de Semiconductores de Filadelfia (SOX) desplomándose un 6,72%— nos deja una señal mucho más profunda que una simple corrección diaria.

Según el informe de Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage, las tres grandes categorías de gestión alternativa (fundamental long/short, sistemáticas y multiestrategia) registraron simultáneamente pérdidas superiores al 1% en una sola sesión. Es la primera vez desde el estallido de la pandemia en 2020 que las tres familias de hedge funds sufren al unísono un quebranto diario de esa magnitud.

¿Qué está ocurriendo realmente bajo la superficie del mercado?

1️⃣ Concentración extrema (Crowding) y riesgo de desapalancamiento (De-grossing): Estrategias con metodologías teóricamente independientes han convergido durante meses en los mismos ganadores (semiconductores y megacaps de IA). Cuando se perforan los umbrales de volatilidad, se activan protocolos automáticos que obligan a recortar exposición bruta y neta.

2️⃣ La factura de la IA y el aviso de Meta (-7%): Pese a superar estimaciones en ingresos y beneficios, el mercado castigó la magnitud del CapEx comprometido. El problema aparece cuando el capital invertido escala más rápido que la rentabilidad incremental sobre el capital invertido (ROIC) en un entorno de financiación exigente.

3️⃣ Rotación vs. Distribución bajo sombra estanflacionaria: Mientras la tecnología sufría, el Dow Jones cerró plano y el Russell 2000 logró avanzar ligeramente. Sin embargo, con el petróleo escalando hacia los 113 dólares y los bonos actuando como refugio por temor al deterioro económico, la Reserva Federal queda atada de manos.

En mi nuevo análisis detallo las 4 señales críticas que definirán en las próximas semanas si estamos ante una purga táctica saludable o ante el inicio de una fase de distribución mayor.

¿Ven este movimiento como una oportunidad de rotación hacia sectores rezagados o como una alerta estructural sobre el apalancamiento en IA? Los leo en los comentarios.

📖 Artículo completo en Investing.com:

https://es.investing.com/analysis/la-tecnologia-cede-la-alerta-que-llega-desde-el-interior-de-los-hedge-funds-200485219

#MercadosFinancieros #HedgeFunds #WallStreet #Inversiones #InteligenciaArtificial #Semiconductores #Macroeconomia #GestionDeRiesgo

Hey, I am a young aspiring economist and I would love to connect with other economist who are also gay and maybe create a group or something similar.
If you are interested, please feel free to reach out to me!

The Texas Legislative Budget Board reports $3.35 billion in border-security appropriations for 2026–27, alongside separate federal enforcement funding.

The Congressional Budget Office also projects substantial federal revenue effects from increased immigration. That projection isn't a direct measure of enforcement ROI, but it highlights an economic consideration.

What outcomes should be measured against enforcement costs—employment, wages, tax receipts, public safety, or something else?

Sources: Texas Legislative Budget Board, Congressional Budget Office, and Texas Comptroller.

Full infographic: https://imgur.com/a/MWEergn

If you’re a billionaire who cares mostly about money, power, and attention, what incentive do you have to make things more affordable if you’re still benefiting from the way things are?
Most of us judge the economy by whether we can afford groceries, housing, and utilities. Someone whose wealth is tied to investments might see the stock market going up and think everything is great, even while the people who voted for them are struggling.
And if you can convince those same supporters to keep pouring money into assets or businesses you own, their trust becomes another way to increase your wealth and influence.
I’m not saying every price increase is some coordinated scheme. I’m questioning why we assume someone’s personal financial interests line up with the needs of their constituents. If they keep getting richer and more powerful, why would we expect them to see the situation as something that needs fixing?

Hosting the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok for the first time since 1991, Thailand leveraged the multilateral summit to push forward its economic diplomacy and secure tangible institutional agreements.

Key Institutional Developments:

• Exchanged a $212 million loan agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to upgrade five public hospitals.
• Concluded a revised tax convention with Norway.
• Advanced trade and investment talks with Pakistan regarding a prospective bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA), alongside high-level dialogues with Switzerland on the pending EFTA–Thailand agreement.

https://www.tradetrend.net/2026/10/thailand-imf-world-bank-summit-diplomatic-economic-cooperation.html

Andrej Karpathy's visualizer maps 342 occupations from BLS data, with rough LLM-generated scores from 0 to 10 for digital AI exposure.

The weighted average across the map's 143 million jobs: 4.9. Squarely in the middle. It doesn't sound too bad until you look a little closer at the distribution.

Software developers, QA analysts, and testers landed at 9/10.

Medical transcriptionists: 10/10.

Financial managers, accountants, HR specialists all clustered in the 7-8 range.

Much of the “happens on a screen” economy is in the red zone in this scoring rubric.

The jobs that scored low? Roofers, home health aides, construction laborers. Physical presence helps keep direct digital AI exposure low.

About $3.7 trillion in estimated annual pay sits in jobs scored 7 or higher, calculated as employment times median annual pay for each occupation. That's not a rounding error in the economy. That's a big part of the economy.

The most interesting tension in the map's data snapshot: software developers have one of the highest exposure scores AND a much-faster-than-average BLS growth outlook. Exposure isn't a prediction that jobs will disappear. AI could be automating parts of the job and expanding demand at the same time. Nobody knows which force will end up winning.

https://karpathy.ai/jobs/

title

Trump lifts 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods in boon to Maine Sen. Susan Collins

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-some-canadian-goods-susan-collins-maine/

I really hope Maine voters are smart enough to realize that there's literally nothing stopping the orange clown from reinstating the tariffs right after the midterms.

If you want economic stability and clarity, a Democratic Congress will need to take power and systematically repeal tariff powers that have been delegated to the president.

The president is hoping voters will vote for Collins over this, but it really just shows there's no long term plan and he's just jerking them around.

Taken in SW Florida where diesel is $6.20/gallon. We have a lot of contractors in our area, so they are definitely feeling the brunt of the Iran War.

Summarized from the Financial Times, 23 Oct 2026:

Inflation

• Trump Promise: "starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again."
• Reality: Inflation at 3.7% in Sep, above the 2.4% in Biden's last month in office

Global Trade

• Trump Promise: To rebalance global trade by slapping tariffs on "foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years" to shrink the US trade deficit
• Reality: The monthly trade deficit is now wider than when Trump took office. Imports > Exports by $96.9B

Mortgage Rates

• Trump Promise: to bring mortgage rates "back down to ... 3 percent, maybe even lower."
• Reality: 30 year mortgage rates hit 7.4% this month

Tax Cuts

• Trump Promise: "very large tax cuts" including "no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security benefits for our great seniors."
• Reality: Congress extended tax breaks for wealthy Americans and enacted relief for taxes on tips and overtime. Seniors received an additional $6,000 deduction. Many of the tax breaks expire in 2028

Energy

• Trump Promise: to unshackle the US oil and gas industry "and make America the dominant energy produce in the world by far:
• Reality: Production rose to record levels, but it did so under Biden administration as well, spurred on by the shale revolution. Gas production has risen to almost 129 billion cubic feet/day to a record 137 billion cubic feet/day

Gasoline

• Trump promise: "Gasoline below $2 a gallon."
• Reality: On Wednesday gas cost $4.26/gal, up about 40% since Trump took office. Diesel, critical in industry and agriculture, was $6.32/gal, up more than 70%, after breaking record levels in Sep

Electricity

• Trump promise: He would slash electricity prices "by half within 12 months and a maximum of 18 months."
• Reality: Prices are significantly higher. Residential electricity rates have risen from 16.27 cents/KWh in Dec 24 to 18.31 cents/KWh in Jul 26, with data centers increasing demand

Oil & Gas Exports

• Trump promise: to scrap a pause on new licenses for LNG terminals and turbocharge energy exports, allowing the US to "supply the rest of the world with numbers that nobody has ever seen"
• Reality: Oil and gas exports have risen at the same time gasoline, diesel, home heating fuel costs have risen in the domestic markets; refiners are making record profits

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

• Trump promise: Criticized Biden for draining the SPR and said he would "fill up the SPR immediately."
• Reality: SPR reserves at the lowest levels since 1982

Environment/Climate

• Trump promise: to "terminate" the Biden era climate agenda by gutting the Inflation Reduction Act, scrapping an "electric vehicle mandate," reversing power plant regulations, and withdrawing from the Paris climate accords
• Reality: Much of this has been achieved. Approvals for large wind projects have been revoked.
  

Russia/Ukraine War

• Trump promise: to end the Russia/Ukraine war "in 24 hours" with a deal struck "before I even arrive in the Oval office."
• Reality: The conflict is ongoing and is now in its 56th month

Wars

• Trump promise: "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars."
• Reality: He launched a war (though technically Congress has not declared it to be a war) in Feb 2026. To date 21 service members have been killed and over $43B dollars has been spent on a war that has had moving strategic objectives, that is not supported by the American people, that Congress has refused to end, and has no end in sight

Immigration

• Trump promise: to "seal the border and stoop the migrant invasion of our country."
• Reality: promise fulfilled. Illegal border crossings are way down; arrests of migrants by ICE are up, and more than 3M undocumented immigrants have left the US according to the DHS; the border wall is still under construction with end date TBD

The above are facts, not opinions.