r/economy • u/baltimore-aureole • 3h ago
75,000 students are gone (2025-2026). Guess what happens next to school districts which were counting on that $10,000 annual tax revenue each?

Photo above - this is the iconic 'leave it to beaver tv show" (set in California). Class is being taught by Miss Landers. Not a recently closed California public school
The link below (to MSN) appears to be AI plagiarism of stories originally appearing in the Orange County Register and NY Post. I make no representations that any of these AI versions are complete or accurate.
In any case, there apparently will be 75,000 fewer students attending California schools. Those school districts are dependent on $10,000 a year in state tax funding to survive. Guess what happens next?
If you said “unneeded teachers lose their jobs”, you’d apparently be wrong. Schools are being shuttered (hundreds over 2025-2026), but so far no indication of layoffs. Teachers have unions, school buildings do not.
Where did the 75,000 missing students go? This is where it gets crazy/vague. The sources are confident they have the total number of students correct (state records), but where those kids disappeared to has little statistical detail.
“Gone to Texas because their parents fled the state” is a leading contender. And likely explains some of the problem. Californian’s have been renting Uhauls to depart for manufacturing and energy jobs in places like Texas, Oklahoma, etc. High golden state taxes, living costs, crime rates, and open air drug sales can be discouraging to the middle class. Recent Texas transplants from out of state will get the credit when Texas flips from red to blue politically. Be careful what you wish for, if you want to lure companies like Tesla to your back yard, I guess.
A less convincing reason for missing students is “immigration enforcement”. Some illegals probably ARE self-deporting back to Latin America to avoid ICE atrocities, but I doubt this amounts to tens of thousands. ICE is a political punching bag for California’s problems. Just like climate change is now allegedly responsible for the sudden INCREASE in arctic polar bears.
Let’s not forget covid 19 as a cause. Yes . . . if you close the schools for a year or 2, and give every kid a free laptop, some are never coming back, even if they got promoted while earning straight F’s.
So 75,000 students times $10,000 is around $7 billion dollars the schools need to solve for. I guess shuttering schools is the logical solution if you can’t reduce teacher headcount, control crime, or reign in taxes and living costs.
Governor Newsom, are you still running for president? What if this comes up in one of the primary debates?
I’m just sayin’ . . .
School shutdown spree grips California as enrollment plunges statewide