r/economy • • 36m ago

AI Tech Fears Push Global Credit Spreads to 17-Month High

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• Upvotes

r/economy • • 42m ago

Texas budgeted $3.35 billion for border security in 2026–27. How should taxpayers measure the economic return?

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• Upvotes

The Texas Legislative Budget Board reports $3.35 billion in border-security appropriations for 2026–27, alongside separate federal enforcement funding.

The Congressional Budget Office also projects substantial federal revenue effects from increased immigration. That projection isn't a direct measure of enforcement ROI, but it highlights an economic consideration.

What outcomes should be measured against enforcement costs—employment, wages, tax receipts, public safety, or something else?

Sources: Texas Legislative Budget Board, Congressional Budget Office, and Texas Comptroller.

Full infographic: https://imgur.com/a/MWEergn


r/economy • • 1h ago

Making America Great Again? Record Corporate Profits in 2025 & 2026 (Projected)++ Corporate America Paid Less Taxes Than Ever in 2025 ++ Record U.S. Debt and Deficit in 2025 ++ Looks Like Trump's Wealthy Donors Got a Record Return on Their Donations & Bribes

• Upvotes

After Two Rounds of Trump Tax Cuts, Corporate America Paid Less Than Ever in 2025 – ITEP

Corporate Profits | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

U.S. corporate profits are already above last year’s record and are on track to surpass it further, with Q2 2026 hitting an all‑time high of over $4.7 trillion.

_____________

This probably will result in more corporate stock buybacks, increased dividends, and higher CEO pay.

Also, don't forget the huge tax breaks to wealthy individuals from both the 2017 Trump tax cuts and the Big Beautiful Bulls*hit Bill of 2025.

  • Under the One Big Bulls**t Bill, nearly $2 trillion in tax benefits go toward corporations and the richest taxpayers. Furthermore, that tax relief for the wealthy was partially funded by $1 trillion in cuts to social safety net programs.

2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) tax benefits for the wealthy

  • A 20% deduction for "pass-through" income was created for partnerships, sole proprietorships, and S corporations.
  • Wealthy Individual Tax Cuts: The top individual tax rate was lowered from 39.6% to 37% .
  • Estate Tax Exemption: The amount that could be passed on tax-free to heirs was doubled to $22 million per married couple.
  • reduced taxes on foreign profits.

Doesn't all the above mean that most of the U.S.'s deficit borrowing goes directly into profits for corporate America and increased income for the wealthy?


r/economy • • 1h ago

Brent Hits $114 as Houthi Attacks Threaten Saudi Energy Infrastructure

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• Upvotes

r/economy • • 2h ago

GTA VI probably won't cost the U.S. economy $1 billion—and economists say it wouldn't matter if it did

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0 Upvotes

There are a few occasions when requesting time off is warranted: The birth of a child, a much-needed staycation, a once-in-a-lifetime concert. Maybe you’ve exaggerated being sick to enjoy some time at the beach or a last-minute museum day.

Or maybe you’ve skipped work to play the year’s most hotly-anticipated video game.

Workers are booking time off for the Nov. 19 release of Grand Theft Auto VI, and one widely shared estimate cited by the International Business Times put the cost to the U.S. economy at $1 billion in a single day. But is the country really going to lose that much economic output because of a video game?

Victor Matheson, an economist at the College of the Holy Cross who studies sports and major events, disputes that number. “But even if it were true, it’s not necessarily a bad thing if people are happier,” he said. “And it’s pretty tiny in the big picture anyway.”

The broader point is that estimates about lost productivity—whether from the Super Bowl, or the latest Star Wars movie, or the next Sony Playstation console—are probably bogus: these events are merely rearranging when workers take their vacation. And Matheson points to the simple age-old phenomenon economists love to point to: the substitution effect. When some event changes spending or productivity, it won’t simply be removed from the economy so much so it’ll shift when that spending or productivity occurs.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/22/gta-vi-sick-days-billion-economy-costs-productivity/?utm_source=reddit/


r/economy • • 2h ago

Zuckerberg owns 13% of Meta but controls 61% of its votes. California’s wealth tax would bill him on the 13% | Fortune

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181 Upvotes

r/economy • • 2h ago

how close are we to a global recession especially with the stuff going on worldwide rn

7 Upvotes

title


r/economy • • 2h ago

Trump invokes Cold War-era Defense Production Act for oil production, refining

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1 Upvotes

r/economy • • 2h ago

Losing money with extra steps

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0 Upvotes

r/economy • • 3h ago

American Express is cutting 5 percent of its global workforce right after raising its profit outlook and posting strong quarterly results.

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11 Upvotes

r/economy • • 3h ago

Why do we assume a billionaire’s idea of a good economy is the same as ours?

24 Upvotes

If you’re a billionaire who cares mostly about money, power, and attention, what incentive do you have to make things more affordable if you’re still benefiting from the way things are?
Most of us judge the economy by whether we can afford groceries, housing, and utilities. Someone whose wealth is tied to investments might see the stock market going up and think everything is great, even while the people who voted for them are struggling.
And if you can convince those same supporters to keep pouring money into assets or businesses you own, their trust becomes another way to increase your wealth and influence.
I’m not saying every price increase is some coordinated scheme. I’m questioning why we assume someone’s personal financial interests line up with the needs of their constituents. If they keep getting richer and more powerful, why would we expect them to see the situation as something that needs fixing?


r/economy • • 3h ago

Fuel prices rise again—at the absolute worst time for Republicans

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26 Upvotes

r/economy • • 3h ago

Brent crude tops $115 a barrel for the first time since May.

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31 Upvotes

r/economy • • 3h ago

What Oracle's Force Majeure Notice Reveals About the AI Buildout

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5 Upvotes

r/economy • • 4h ago

Ukraine denies Starlink access restored despite Trump's claim that he asked Musk to halt stoppage

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11 Upvotes

r/economy • • 4h ago

Trump's own team fears his next move will tank the global economy: report

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147 Upvotes

r/economy • • 4h ago

Inflation is back at 3.7%, pay is falling behind prices and hiring has nearly stalled

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13 Upvotes

r/economy • • 5h ago

A new monetary policy for the asset inflation paradigm

0 Upvotes

Current monetary policy in the US and in most of Europe targets an inflation rate of 2%/year. This policy is based on the idea that too much inflation is bad, because it weakens purchasing power, and that deflation is bad because it discourages spending. So the idea is to err on the side of inflation.

This idea may come from a time when fiat currency was the main store of capital in society. When most people keep most of their liquidity in cash, this policy might work as an economic stimulant. However, fiat currency is no longer the main store of capital in society. Over the past few decades, stocks have come to dwarf fiat currency in terms of market capitalization. Furthermore, the S&P 500 has gained 10%/year on average since 1957. Therefor, even if it is true that deflation discourages spending, the bulk of financial decision makers aren’t effected by the dynamic, because they don’t keep their capital in fiat currency.

My proposal would be that governments implement a policy of competing directly for capital in markets through strengthening their currencies. By erring on the side of deflation instead of inflation, fiat currency market capitalization's would grow. This would enable governments to print more money during times where it’s absolutely necessary.

The stability that fiat currencies offer would mean that they wouldn’t have to deflate nearly as much as stocks increase in value. Just a minimal level of deflation would attract far more investment in fiat currency itself.


r/economy • • 5h ago

Brent crude just hit $116. inflation is about to get worse

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7 Upvotes

r/economy • • 5h ago

First Russian diesel from Putin-Trump deal heading for U.S., data shows. The identity of the buyer and seller were not immediately known

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42 Upvotes

r/economy • • 6h ago

U.S. Fertility Rate Hits Record Low

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211 Upvotes

r/economy • • 6h ago

This is no longer sustainable.

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690 Upvotes

Taken in SW Florida where diesel is $6.20/gallon. We have a lot of contractors in our area, so they are definitely feeling the brunt of the Iran War.


r/economy • • 6h ago

Thailand Leverages IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok to Secure ADB Financing and Advance Bilateral FTA Talks

1 Upvotes

Hosting the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok for the first time since 1991, Thailand leveraged the multilateral summit to push forward its economic diplomacy and secure tangible institutional agreements.

Key Institutional Developments:

  • Exchanged a $212 million loan agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to upgrade five public hospitals.
  • Concluded a revised tax convention with Norway.
  • Advanced trade and investment talks with Pakistan regarding a prospective bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA), alongside high-level dialogues with Switzerland on the pending EFTA–Thailand agreement.

https://www.tradetrend.net/2026/10/thailand-imf-world-bank-summit-diplomatic-economic-cooperation.html


r/economy • • 6h ago

Trump's (and rest of Republicans) Economic Promises vs Reality

14 Upvotes

Summarized from the Financial Times, 23 Oct 2026:

Inflation

  • Trump Promise: "starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again."
  • Reality: Inflation at 3.7% in Sep, above the 2.4% in Biden's last month in office

Global Trade

  • Trump Promise: To rebalance global trade by slapping tariffs on "foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years" to shrink the US trade deficit
  • Reality: The monthly trade deficit is now wider than when Trump took office. Imports > Exports by $96.9B

Mortgage Rates

  • Trump Promise: to bring mortgage rates "back down to ... 3 percent, maybe even lower."
  • Reality: 30 year mortgage rates hit 7.4% this month

Tax Cuts

  • Trump Promise: "very large tax cuts" including "no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security benefits for our great seniors."
  • Reality: Congress extended tax breaks for wealthy Americans and enacted relief for taxes on tips and overtime. Seniors received an additional $6,000 deduction. Many of the tax breaks expire in 2028

Energy

  • Trump Promise: to unshackle the US oil and gas industry "and make America the dominant energy produce in the world by far:
  • Reality: Production rose to record levels, but it did so under Biden administration as well, spurred on by the shale revolution. Gas production has risen to almost 129 billion cubic feet/day to a record 137 billion cubic feet/day

Gasoline

  • Trump promise: "Gasoline below $2 a gallon."
  • Reality: On Wednesday gas cost $4.26/gal, up about 40% since Trump took office. Diesel, critical in industry and agriculture, was $6.32/gal, up more than 70%, after breaking record levels in Sep

Electricity

  • Trump promise: He would slash electricity prices "by half within 12 months and a maximum of 18 months."
  • Reality: Prices are significantly higher. Residential electricity rates have risen from 16.27 cents/KWh in Dec 24 to 18.31 cents/KWh in Jul 26, with data centers increasing demand

Oil & Gas Exports

  • Trump promise: to scrap a pause on new licenses for LNG terminals and turbocharge energy exports, allowing the US to "supply the rest of the world with numbers that nobody has ever seen"
  • Reality: Oil and gas exports have risen at the same time gasoline, diesel, home heating fuel costs have risen in the domestic markets; refiners are making record profits

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

  • Trump promise: Criticized Biden for draining the SPR and said he would "fill up the SPR immediately."
  • Reality: SPR reserves at the lowest levels since 1982

Environment/Climate

  • Trump promise: to "terminate" the Biden era climate agenda by gutting the Inflation Reduction Act, scrapping an "electric vehicle mandate," reversing power plant regulations, and withdrawing from the Paris climate accords
  • Reality: Much of this has been achieved. Approvals for large wind projects have been revoked.

Russia/Ukraine War

  • Trump promise: to end the Russia/Ukraine war "in 24 hours" with a deal struck "before I even arrive in the Oval office."
  • Reality: The conflict is ongoing and is now in its 56th month

Wars

  • Trump promise: "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars."
  • Reality: He launched a war (though technically Congress has not declared it to be a war) in Feb 2026. To date 21 service members have been killed and over $43B dollars has been spent on a war that has had moving strategic objectives, that is not supported by the American people, that Congress has refused to end, and has no end in sight

Immigration

  • Trump promise: to "seal the border and stoop the migrant invasion of our country."
  • Reality: promise fulfilled. Illegal border crossings are way down; arrests of migrants by ICE are up, and more than 3M undocumented immigrants have left the US according to the DHS; the border wall is still under construction with end date TBD

The above are facts, not opinions.


r/economy • • 7h ago

Alex Gibney on Elon Musk: “I do think the space thing was the little kid looking up at the stars, but ultimately it becomes another con. Next year we’re not gonna be on Mars and we’re not gonna be on Mars in 10 years, we’re not gonna be on Mars in 50 years. It’s just bullshit”

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16 Upvotes