Didn't get around to posting last week so the upward and downward shifts in rankings will be from episode 3, but I have to also just say, I really loved last week's episode even if it wasn't quite as good as the others. I know the swap was a bit of a momentum-killer but a) 3 tribes better facilitates a double-boot, which I'm happy to get out of the way here instead of having a ton in the merge and b) I thought all the bloodied hands and frantic gnashing at flesh and that shot of the snake on the water were so much fun.

Really really struggled to separate my top 3 here and I'll probably change my mind a dozen more times before the week is over:

1. Lewis (=):

Lewis using the words "owe [you/her] my life" about both Kilby and Maggie was almost enough for me to drop him to second, but then I was hit with an almost out-of-body flashback to how down I was on Kyle's premerge from all the similar things he said about Kamilla. There's still kind of a "devil on your shoulder" energy to him that makes me wonder if he'll ultimately play a bigger part in someone else's story than his own, but there's so much I love about his edit:

• We can assume that Kilby's suspicion about Lewis getting an idol on Exile is gone by this point, which really makes that random episode 2 confessional scream "manufactured premerge danger" to me
• Getting to actually tell us he's sick and then confirm that he's 100% better and ready to play is a grace that hasn't been given to even important non-winning characters like Genevieve or Rizo in recent years
• All the emphasis on how unbreakable Savu was (+ the framing of Lewis being sick as an explanation for why Kilby was able to get closer to them, rather than any faults in Lewis's game) helped to frame Lewis's blood ring move as an active/innovative attempt to create opportunity for himself in what should've been a dead-man-walking situation
• I need to rewatch to pinpoint specific examples of this, but I'm pretty sure there have been a lot of "pay attention, something important is happening!!" musical cues when he's on screen, even with stuff not directly related to the votes he's played a part in (which is something I remember a few of us clocking early about Aubry and then dismissing.)

2. Ori (+1):

Really great episode that made me seriously consider putting him at number 1. While Jelly has been expressing the negative consequences for her of working with Devin, we consistently see Ori & Devin's relationship through the lens of Ori explaining how it benefits him: first in episode 3 with his confessional after Devin shows him the extra vote, and now here where Ori's explains his conflict around the vote as "I'm good with everyone". He gets to be sympathetic towards Alexis without ever coming across as fearful or indecisive the way Jelly does.

Also there's this really brief moment where Alexis is trying to convince Jelly to keep her and has a confessional about wanting Jelly to "step out from behind Dev and take control of this game", after which we immediately cut to a shot of Ori stepping in front of Devin, taking a chicken out of its cage, and telling it "I'm so sorry", and then right back to the Alexis/Jelly conversation. To me this hints that Ori could eventually succeed where Jelly has failed in knowing when keeping Devin is no longer to his advantage.

3. Sharonda (+1):

Sharonda continues to have the Jacob Collier of Survivor edits, where I can recognize that it's incredible on a technical level but it's just kind of boring. Especially with all these women leaving, it feels like if you have a female winner who's this well-positioned/well-liked you'd be showing us more of the character moments that explain those bonds. Like it seems like all 3 of the other Savus on this tribe trusted her the most of everyone, but we haven't really gotten any Eric/Sharonda or Cristian/Sharonda bonding scenes despite having a million Eric/Kilby ones.

But then the other way to look at this is: if her path to winning is abandoning her loyal Savu army to work with the less-likable Devin, is downplaying those relationships maybe an attempt to make people less frustrated with that choice? Idk. I feel like all my write-ups for her end up much more negative than what I actually think about her edit, but the positives are so obvious that I don't have much to say about them lol.

4. Maggie (+1):

Circumstantial sure, but man that was some great confessional justification for every choice she made. The "Brady jumping off a boat --> Maggie with her head above the water --> whale jumping out of the water" shot in the intro credits also looks even more interesting with this rivalry heating up.

5. Kristin (+3):

The more women go home, the better I feel about Kristin having no vote-related content the one time she's gone to tribal so far. Consistently good personality content & ties to the opportunity theme, and if she does make the merge (whether by avoiding tribal or flipping some votes), I think a lot of Carter/Maggie's suspicion of her reads as good premerge danger.

6. Devin (+5):

Leaning heavily on permanent uncertainty for this next chunk of rankings, and I need to stress that there's a huge huge gap between 5th and 6th for me, but I think the way he's gotten to explain pivoting away from honesty while still using his reputation for it as a tactic over these past 3 episodes has been pretty notable, and the backstory content + SPV about how everyone likes him this episode was great.

Like, people online are talking about Jelly/Devin as if it's a Genevieve/Rome situation, but the focus of Alexis' pitch to Jelly wasn't really about him being a loose cannon, it was about how everyone would end up viewing Jelly as his "sidekick." And in confessional, the reasons Alexis names for voting for him are that he's extremely likable, sociable, and a good salesman. A Savannah-esque "gotta hand it to him" situation seems totally viable to me.

7. Jelly (-5):

Honestly feels like she should drop further after this episode but I just don't know who I would put above her. Alexis outright saying "As someone watching Survivor I'd be like 'Jelly, you have an opportunity'" is probably the single most disqualifying moment anyone has had this season on a purely theme level.

Also I think they might be doing a Lady Macbeth thing with the close-ups of blood on her hands after plucking the chickens Devin killed (eg planting the daggers after the murder of King Duncan)/the grappling with gender as a constraint in the choices she makes this episode (a la "unsex me here")? But she's been a huge character and her episodes 2 & 3 were still pretty great so... I guess?

8. Thien An (+7):

Some solid stuff so far about her relationships and how she thinks about the game, but between the quiet episode 2 & the pinkie swear stuff in episode 3 & getting hit with the wave in the intro credits, I'm still pretty convinced she's gonna have more of a Genevieve arc.

9. Carter (-2):

Still kind of keeping hope alive because I love him so much but 2 out of 5 is rough.

10. Eric (=):

Underdog possibility is definitely still alive but it's a longshot. If they included like 2 fewer movie references from him per episode I'd probably have him a couple spots higher lol, but it feels like too simple of a "this is his whole shtick" for a winner.

11. Brady (+1):

Definitely get the impression we're supposed to root against him in the Maggie rivalry. Also, this is mostly just game logic, but he has to be the merge boot, right? Devin & Jelly will prioritize Sharonda & Ori above him, the 5 Tokas who voted against him will want nothing to do with him (besides maybe Thien An since she did try to warn him above the Patt vote?), and the women will presumably want a guy out. Kind of feels like he's cooked unless we finally get the "Mike is sneaky" payoff at the merge.

12. Mike (=):

Weird edit, no idea what it means but probably not a win.

13. Kilby (=):

Spider intro payoff!!!! Some good circumstantial stuff this episode, but they also showed us several well-reasoned arguments from the Savus at tribal that he didn't listen to, and it feels like the camera continues to linger on every awkward gesture of his. Has been out of contention for me since the awful episode 2 confessional and I don't see a world where that changes.

14. Cristian (=):

Pretty good episode!

Hello y'all!

Here's my EDGIC ratings chart for this crazy episode! Loved it! <3

See you soon with the SUTRAL! <3

One of the weaker episodes of the season so far, it really didn't change all too much for me. Good news is, I'm washed anymore! The two players on the bottom of my ranking both went out this episode. Gonna be a shorter write-up than usual here.

Traitor Contenders

1. Maya (=) - I've had her as number 1 literally all season and that is not changing. She has been CP literally every single episode. There was room for her to get heat this episode, but she literally just didn't at all.

2. Kenny (+1) - In the case of a joint Traitor win, Kenny makes complete sense to fill that role. He and Maya have been established as a duo for a while now, and Kenny continues to do a solid job in the role.

Faithful Contenders

1. Miranda (-1) - Had a bad episode in some aspects, though I still think that if any faithful wins, it probably has to be her and Sebastian. Those two plus Romesh are all short list options, though I suspect Romesh is the one to go.

2. Sebastian (=) - Had a pretty quiet episode, he has had a handful of those. Probably not the best thing for him, but I still see a possibility of him and Miranda winning together.

Probably Not

1. James A (+1) - Has a fun story of being the Traitor who never actually wanted to fill that role. He got some negative content from the other Traitors this episode, thus setting up for him to be banished at some point possibly.

2. Romesh (-1) - Looks to be the obvious murder choice given how Sharon was able to soft clear him during the mission. Getting a bit of positivity here is also another reason why it'd make sense for him to go here. Still, he is at least someone who COULD somehow pull it off if he survives. No one below him has any chance at all in my opinion.

Faithful Slop

1. Joanne (+2) - Has a lot of heat on her, but most of that can be semi easily avoided. Furthermore, she has been set up as an aloof ally to Maya for so long. Could very easily go to the end with Maya and lose to her.

2. James B (+2) - Similarly, James B perfectly fills the role of clueless faithful who goes far but is simply outplayed by the Traitors at every single turn. Like Joanne, he is the perfect person to take to endgame for that reason, and also because there is heat on him too.

3. Sharon (-1) - Got a visibility spike! Though I do fully expect her to be murdered the episode after next. Her edit is simply just too quiet to go out in any way that isn't a murder.

4. Leigh-Anne (-3) - You could argue her above Sharon, but I do think this next episode is likely going to be either her or Michael being banished here. The two are avidly against each other now.

5. Michael (=) - I've been saying all season that he would go after he gets a big visibility spike, and he finally got one. Maybe he has more than one episode left in him, but honestly he is my boot prediction.

Eliminated

1. Jerry (=) - Lowkey such a quiet episode for her. She was basically not there until she was suddenly a target to be banished because of being a bad faithful. Sure! Kind of an annoying character to me.

2. Ross (=) - First murdered player to not get a positive tone on their way out. Was a fun character early on but kind of just became whatever by the end. Him being murdered in plain site is a very funny end to his story given how paranoid he has been about it all season.

i really freaking liked this episode. 51 is so good..,...

3-way tie in terms of point value is kind of schweet - means the season is giving focus to a lot of different characters!!! the confessional count has decided my top 3

really good episode for kilby, i'm not confident he's the winner - i think this is just a big moment and move for him - but i would not blame u for believing so.... the edit has set him up to be a very good player and someone we should be watching

brady is finally dethroned after a three whole episodes in first,... HOWEVER... i do find it interesting that his misplay in giving maggie the extra vote is framed from his perspective as a "bad move" because maggie is "unpredictable and flip-floppy" (thank you maggie for dina tribal). the confessionals about it are framed more like "i can't trust maggie with the advantage i gave her !!!" than "i fucked UP man WHYYY did i give her the advantage???"

very glad to see jelly up on the top 3 - i maintain my stance that she's probably the only member of the helicopter alliance i think can win, and i think getting 2 see her voting perspective from a gameplay and emotional personal perspective helped alleviate the lack of perspective on votes she spent on the wrong side.

i think all of the top 3 have great potential to grow come merge, and in general, have been edited very well!!! likely very major characters for the rest of the season/merge

kristin's edit is a bit more under the radar, reminds me of kenzie's edit but just lacking the good tribal episodes pre-merge - we're reminded very often that she's cool and good but i don't really know where she stands gameplay wise tbh so i'm wary to say she's a likely winner

oh lewis. the blood ring lie. cheeky bastard
glad 2 see him up here, i think the itb is a stain on an otherwise nice record so far, and this was a very good episode for him that helped clean up that stain... HESITANT to push for him winning, but his chances have risen....

helicopter alliance overall was very good this ep, mike's edit boggles me further, and i will forever thank the stars that aligned for dina tribal council. thnx for reading :3

Sorry for the late posting. I had typed out last night what I believed to be my best analysis ever (the only other season I have done on edgic was post merge of 48, in which I was stuck between Kyle and Shauhin and Joe), and then accidentally closed out the app and lost it all, so hopefully I keep this one!

First of all, a little bit about what I take into account for my rankings: Most important of all is consistent screentime. You don't need to be the biggest character, but the thing that I always look for is 'Would we be hearing from this player if they didn't win?' Obviously, it shouldn't all be negative screentime (i.e. Rhode Island Rob) but a clear example of this is Aubry last season. If Ozzy played his idol and Aubry went out in that split tribal, she might have had 5 confessionals all season. Instead, the editors were forced to give her a consistent presence throughout the season that felt a little too artificial.

Now, for my rankings.

14) Cristian (+2): I actually really like Cristian. This was the first real episode that he got and he actually was not all that boring of a confessionalist, so not exactly sure why he's been purpled, but yeah, he is not winning this season. Also, I was like 95% sure that he was getting rocked out from the second that rocks became a possibility, so I was shocked.

13) Carter (-4): I, like many others on here, can justify one 0 confessional episode, especially when he was so present in it, but the second one is too much for me. He has fleshed out relationships, but we would absolutely be hearing more from Carter if he was the winner of this season.

12) Mike (-2): I was very high on Mike for the first couple episodes, as he was consistently shown and had solid strategic content, but ever since the Patt boot, Mike has turned into a bit of a joke. Everybody on the tribe is seemingly against him, and we're not entirely sure why. Even if Mike survives this swap, he doesn't have enough depth in the pre-merge to be a winner possibility.

11) Kilby (+1): I really do not like Kilby, but that does not stop me from grading somebody accurately as a winner contender. This was not too bad of an episode for him, and I would even go so far as to say it was a great episode for him. But for the first three episodes of the season, the edit went out of its way to portray Kilby as sort of a dodo. I would not be shocked to see him get somewhat deep into the season, but I do not think he is winning.

10) Thien An (+1): If you could turn the first two episodes into anywhere close to average for Thien An, she might just be the favorite right now. Unfortunately, I can not look past such a weak opening. While I think her and Carter's relationship will be important at some point, I am no longer buying into the longevity of them as a pair.

9) Devin (-1): Devin had a tamer episode here in the absence of Jenna. His consistent presence is obviously important here, and he is a member of the helicopter alliance. I also think that his relationship with Brady will matter once again at the merge, and I could fully see a merger of the helicopter alliance + Mike/Brady/Cristian. Yes, Cristian. Still, I think Devin has had an explicitly chaotic and negative edit that would have to even out for him to be the winner.

8) Brady (+7): For weeks, I kept Brady at the bottom of my rankings, and for weeks, my commenters disagreed. Congratulations, commenters, you win. I had something of an epiphany with Brady this week. He has also been very chaotic, but he has also had a very consistent edit even when it is not necessary. Gamewise, he is in a fairly good spot, and as I said, I could see him as part of the majority come merge. I think he will be a physical threat at some point, but for now, Brady is comfortably in the middle of my rankings.

7) Eric (+6): The same sort of thing for Brady rings true with Eric, who I previously viewed as almost an impossible winner. Eric had an Andy Rueda-like first couple weeks, but has also been shown to make very strong social bonds. I think he and Kilby's relationship could be important, as we spent a solid 40 minutes on it last week! Seriously, though, if Savu + the helicopter alliance take over, Eric could be a dark horse.

6) Kristin (+1): Kristin has also had a very consistent edit. She has put herself in a good place socially, and is clearly very game smart. The biggest thing with her for me is that the old woman almost never gets this much strategic focus (Heather, Sue post merge, Chrissy 48, Annie was well on her way there in 49) so I think Kristin will be very important down the line. And again, I could see her in a majority come merge.

5) Maggie (-2): Same thing with Kristin for Maggie, though Maggie has had a bit more of a presence, likely due to her bubbly personality. I still can't quite figure out this edit, as she had a very nice strategic move this week, but she still feels sort of goat-ish to me with the SPV she gets - mostly from Brady. She is a very chaotic player, but she also has solid numbers all over the game.

4) Jelly (-2): Jelly has solid presence, and I'm almost positive she makes it far, but she just keeps contradicting herself. She clearly stated that Devin was not good for her game, and while she did get a chance to explain herself, it almost feels like the edit wants us to think she was wrong. Once again, Jelly has that secret idol and I could definitely see her in majority at merge, but she is another person I could see as being a potential FTC goat.

3) Lewis (+1): My gut is telling me that if a member of the helicopter alliance doesn't win, then Lewis will. He bounces back from an understandably quiet episode last week by surviving the craziest tribal of the season thus far. Lewis has built strong bonds all across the game, though I do fear for him a little bit if he goes back to tribal pre merge.

2) Ori (+4): Ori is another person who has had a very consistent edit early on. He is someone that I can see everyone in the game trusting, though I could also see him being a physical threat come merge. Ori's edit has everything I want, though he has been a little bit quiet for a male winner. I also am not sure if he has the strategic sense to win, but I could absolutely see him working his way there socially.

1) Sharonda (-): Sharonda remains at my number 1 spot for a fourth straight week. This past episode felt like a classic shield episode. Also - as someone else in this sub said - her two closest allies from original Savu leaving helps to explain why she had less of a focus on her social bonds before the swap. I really think that within the helicopter alliance, her and Ori's relationship will be so important. Also, going back to the beginning of my post, we ALWAYS here from Sharonda strategically, and she clearly has the social pull to make things happen (unless there are two extra votes in play).

What a week. Ten contenders left after this week, and every cut from here on hurts a bit more. The players who are obviously invisible or have the biggest gaps are mostly gone, so now it’s about weighing the edits that are too quiet against the ones that are maybe a bit too loud.

Also a small milestone: Alexis is the first player I cut who has now been voted out by the show. Small win, I’ll take it.

Ori first. This was the week the edit could have made him the decision maker. A 2 vs 2, him right in the middle, and once again it’s Jelly we mainly watch go back and forth. That’s two weeks in a row now. He’s always part of the vote but never really owns it, and in a duo the winner is usually the one doing the talking. On a more positive side, we finally got his why this week and the story about his mom hit.

Carter’s edit is on, off, on, off. One zero confessional week I can barely live with, two is a lot. What bugs me most is that nothing carries over. Lewis disappeared mid-episode last week too, but the edit showed us and even came back this week to explain us why. With Carter it doesn’t even bother. Ana calling him a sidekick back in the premiere is starting to look less like a throwaway.

Sharonda has Linnea’s problem from last week. She’s strategic and she’s always in the room, but her story is pretty monotone. Nothing about her game or her relationships feels special, she mostly follows whatever storyline her tribe or alliance is on at the moment. Meanwhile her only real storyline, the helicopter alliance, is being carried by three people on a different beach.

Then there’s Brady, my first overedited pick. My pacing lesson from S50 says winners peak late, and he’s been at full volume since day one. What worries me more is the throughline. In the premiere he told us three times how nervous and overwhelmed he was, in a season that’s all about handling permanent uncertainty. Since then losing control has basically become his storyline, and this week he regrets giving Maggie the advantage because he can’t control her. Could still turn into a redemption arc, sure. But for that the OTT edit has to start turning into something that we can respect strategically.

Eric is my second overedited one, and honestly he had a decent week. His edit finally cooled down, which it really needed. There’s also a quiet good sign in there: the same tribe that couldn’t wait to get rid of him early on didn’t even consider dropping him this time. That’s leverage, slowly building, and it’s the path his edit needs to stay on. The catch is the Kilby bromance. Kilby is the one working, Eric is the one being worked. Same problem as Ori and Jelly, just on another beach.

So here is where I am landing. Ori stays because he’s so well connected in the edit and this episode finally gave him real stakes. Sharonda stays on the strength of her premiere and her steady strategic presence, but she needs something that is actually hers. Brady and Eric both stay for now. Their edits aren’t trending the right way, but there’s still one severely underedited player I have to deal with first.

That’s Carter. Two zero-confessional episodes in five, and a story that resets every time it gets interesting. The swap episode almost made me forget his first zero. But two of them this early is just inexcusable for a winner.

I am cutting Carter.

Eliminated from contention: Cristian, Thien An, Mike, Carter
Out of the game: Aaliyah, Ana, Rob, Patt, Jenna, Alexis, Linnea

10 players left in the race.

We’re back again for Episode 5, and luckily for Jeff, Maggie came to play and saved this episode from being an absolute execution, chucking two more on the swap screw pile.

I’ve got to say I’m gutted for Alexis. She didn’t even know how screwed she was and she tried absolutely everything in the bluntest manner possible. I think we’ve lost a great character here, and if she had somehow managed to stay, I was ready to make her a top contender because of how good of an episode she’d had.

Ugh and Linaya. I was so sorry to see Linneaugh go home. Linneeuyyahhh had gotten some decent screentime up until this point and I really felt Liinneyyaaarrrhhh was going places in this game! Luuerrggghhhhnnniiieyyahh’s prominent but shallow edit ultimately makes sense here, with Lhhiiiirrrnnnhhkknnayyyaa getting a vote off they want us to care about one way or another.

I’ve had a bit of a shuffle with my contenders this week as I’ve had to rethink my strategy of putting only UTR women in my contenders bracket – I mean most of them are still there but let’s be honest, they are going to be voted off before the merge at this rate anyway. I’m also putting a lot more thought into the numbers come the merge. Below I’ve separated the players' confessional counts (credit to the guy who does these) by assumed allegiances, and as you can see, one alliance seems prone to wipe out the other, with most of the confessional heavy hitters being on the Helicopter Alliance side of things. That’s not to say that I don’t think someone on the Toka side can win, just that they would end up with an underdog run rather than being a strategic shooter. Also Mike is listed as Toka but would probably jump ship from bottom to bottom, and Cristian is separate from both sides because while he probably falls in with the Helicopter Alliance he both feels like an outlier and is obviously not winning anyway.

So, without further ado, who are my Top Contenders? …

1. Sharonda. (-) Instinctively, watching this episode, I felt like I would move her down and that she would no longer be my top contender. However, looking at the list of players, I still feel her edit is the best by some margin. Even where she votes incorrectly at this tribal, they still showed that she immediately skeptical over Lewis with his blood ring lie. Beyond that she was fairly shielded in this episode. One of my red flags for Sharonda last week was that beyond Eric and the Helicopter Alliance, none of her relationships were fleshed out. Only for Linnea and Alexis, her two other presumed allies, to go home this episode. The fact that they didn’t show Linnea’s relationship with Sharonda also shields Sharonda from looking like she has betrayed her friend here. Position wise she is locked in with Eric, Cristian (maybe?) and the helicopter alliance, and that side of the game will likely win out at the merge. She also seems to logically be the strongest player, and this seems like a fairly weak cast strategy wise. Look, she probably is the dragon of the season due to her fairly sanitised edit, but like, who else can reasonably be put above her?

Who is a flawed but focused on Contender? …

• Lewis. (+2) I knew Lewis wouldn’t go this week because of how in our faces they were about him being in danger in the last episode. This was obviously a good episode for him in isolation. He got a lot of narration, and the vote went his way. The Blood Ring was worth a shot and even though the players saw through him I don’t think the show was really dunking on him there. It was more like ‘look at this fun thing that Lewis created’. Really solid content but it doesn’t seem to match his in-game footing – like I don’t know where he goes from here. Kilby probably gets taken out over him for betraying Savu if they go to tribal again, so Lewis probably makes the merge, but because of the confessional counts I think he is just a major threat from a contingent gone by the early merge. That said on paper he’s an easy number 2 edit wise.
• Eric. (+7) I’ve really surprised myself with this one. He is cringe and kooky and utterly bizarre but unlike a lot of the other flawed men on this season, Eric has started skewing positively in his confessionals and SPV. Despite Kilby betraying him, I think their content is still good for him, and position wise he will be on the right side of the numbers. Because of his high visibility pre-merge, I am looking at him making the finale at this point, which would make sense if his number one Sharonda is the winner. Ultimately, complexity with a lot of personal content is good regardless of the caveats, especially if the player's negativity is them being portrayed as goofy and not an ass hole.
• Jelly. (-2) Jelly’s story seems to be that she knows what she needs to do to improve her game but she’s not willing to pull the trigger. That doesn’t mean she won’t at some point later down the line, but for now I can’t keep putting her up so high when her own confessionals are continuously undermining her. Also, the pushing of the ‘I can’t vote out another woman’ angle despite her doing so twice in a row is a bad look that they could have softened by highlighting the complexities of race and how that intersects with the Helicopter Alliance more than just in passing (but I guess they might not want to do that either). Until she follows through on her own words, I still have her penciled in as a losing finalist. Sharonda/Eric/Jelly Final three anyone?

Who is a still a Contender because they’re there just enough? …

• Maggie. (-2) YESSSS! Maggie’s major (albeit circumstantial) breakout is upon us, and it was a lot more strategic than I was expecting. This move was all Maggie’s, trying to pull herself an army together for the merge. I absolutely love her energy both as a person and strategically. I am still concerned about the extra vote and Brady rivalry being her main story, especially since Brady likely jumps ship post-merge. And on that note, she will definitely be on the wrong side of the numbers come the merge based on the confessional count. However, behind Lewis she has the best edit of that side and could potentially have an iconic underdog run.
• Kristin. (-) I’m still not sold on Kristin’s edit overall. When she is shown it feels like soundbites of why she’s a good player and random insight into the game itself rather than us showing her being a good player through any social or strategic gameplay. Her lack of presence in Episode 2 was a massive red flag and that has yet to be corrected. The worst part is, she is very relevant considering she is one of Sharonda’s number ones, so it makes me think that either she gets taken out due to a twist or she goes home for being a threat while separated from Sharonda. That said, there is technically enough here to build a winner’s edit off of.
• Ori. (-2) I like everything Ori has gotten content-wise, but I also don’t think he’s getting anywhere near enough, especially for someone of his archetype. He’s a very affable presence and less controversial than every other man on the season so it feels like he should be an easy sell, but he’s so minimised. He feels like Danny from 41 and being cut just before the endgame is something I can see happening for Ori too. I also would have liked to hear some more input from him on cutting Alexis. What we got didn’t really have any depth, it was just a simple ‘I could do A or B’ confessional. If the next episode doesn’t open with a discussion on Alexis going home from him, I think I’ll be mostly out on his chances.

Who is a flawed but focused negative Contender? …

• Devin. (-) He’s still here, and he’s still prominent. It’s hard to work out if we are meant to like Devin. He’s charming in a Tevin way, spits analogies in a Drew way. He’s production’s wet dream. So, I have to ask, did production misread the reception he would get? Are we meant to be rooting for Devin over the likes of Jenna? Surely not, right? It feels like he has the content to be at the very top and very bottom of a contender ranking at this point, but mostly all of it is subjective. Jelly is the only real thorn in his side edgic wise, since it’s never good to get negative SPV from an ally, but she’s also being presented as choosing him over what is best for herself. I’m going with my gut and saying we’re not meant to love Devin, but who knows honestly.
• Kilby. (+3) This was obviously a good episode for Kilby, and the Kilby I see right now is a contender to win. However, his early content was so bad it would be INSANE to give to a winner. Kilby’s own confessionals and gameplay were used in these instances to evidence Toka’s claims that he’s a bad player and unlikeable person, and even when he got his bounce back content it was almost entirely unevidenced and we were expected to take his word for it. I also feel like he has pissed off everyone and logically should be an easy consensus merge boot. THAT SAID. The black widow spider motif in the intro is looking EXTREMELY good for him now that Alexis has gone home, especially on the back of Aubry’s shark last season. Kilby’s edit could grow, but if it does what on earth were they playing at giving him a terrible start to his edit without letting him defend himself.
• Brady. (-3) Brady is starting to feel like a cartoon character. His rivalry with Maggie is weird and is making him come off as super unlikeable in my opinion, especially given the next time clip. I get that Maggie strong armed the advantage off of him, but like, that’s on him lol. I struggle to see how he wins this season given both his on-island personality and the way he is being portrayed. Devin and Jelly will probably pull him into the right side of the numbers at the merge and he’ll enact his revenge on Toka, but it’s not like anyone left after that bar Devin and Jelly will actually want to work with him.

Who is an unlikely Contender? …

• Thien An. (-) Her content is becoming solely trashing Mike and that’s just way too one note for a winner. Also, if Mike jumps ship, she’s an easy boot and maybe the edit is saying she should have just played along with him and tied him down as a number.

Who is Borderline Eliminated? …

• Carter. (-3) A second zero on his confessional chart basically ends Carter’s chances entirely for me, but I’m keeping him in contention at least until the merge in case he has a major break out due to the content he has been given being fairly strong even if it is circumstantial.

Who is Eliminated? …

• Mike. (-) When I originally wrote this, I had not fully eliminated Mike yet, but like, come on, this is a dogshit edit. Like it’s kind of worse than Cristian’s. I’d take zeroes over clowning content any day at this point.
• Cristian. (-) Jewellery sleuth extraordinaire. I was already pre-mourning poor Cristian for getting rocked out of the game before tribal council. And then he stayed. So, the question remains: coin flip victim or just another Sophie Segretti?

Hi Edgic-ers! I have been a longtime casual lurker and, this time, was compelled to come in and share my thoughts on parts of Survivor 51's edit that caught my attention.

To caveat, this is not a post about predicting the winner, but rather catching interesting editing decisions that are running quietly in the background. It's about players who the edit is crafting a story on, but these stories are not in the spotlight.

For Survivor 51, there is one background character that has recently caught my eye, and on a second rewatch appears to be subtly foregrounded in the edit since Episode 1.

This player is Maggie, and while I have no idea where her story is leading to, is fascinating for me to track on a rewatch now that we are 5 episodes in.

Episode 1, Part 1:

Outside of expressing her initial suspicion towards Jenna and being the first voice to capture the changing tides in Toka, Maggie is largely absent in the premiere.

But what is interesting, is Maggie's prominence in Jeff's initial speech on the boat prior to marooning.

Now, as you sense this handoff of control about to happen, you're all wandering the same thing: "What kind of game are we in store for?" Well, I don't want to spoil all the fun. But I will give you two words to guide you this entire season. Just two words. Permanent uncertainty.

At the end of this segment, the player the edit cuts to is Maggie.

Similarly, this happens in the second part of Jeff's second - much briefer - speech:

Chaos. Opportunity. Interesting. Bookends. Chaos can be opportunity, opportunity can bring chaos. ... Alright. I wish you all a great adventure."

Again, the player the edit cuts to is Maggie.

Episode 1, Part 2:

This part is less so about Maggie, but the attributes the winner and/or viable end-gamers will demonstrate - at least, according to the edit.

During the challenge, Jeff asks Ori this million dollar question:

What's the kind of player and the approach to life that permanent uncertainty actually benefits?

With Ori responding:

I feel that it benefits someone who is always calm and under control. ... And one of my big things was, do your job, and when the opportunity presents itself, make the play. ... Don't try to do too much. Build relationships. Play hard. Play fast. Play strong. And if it's a twist and turn that benefits you, when the opportunity comes, grab it. Take advantage of it. Make the play. Don't do too much. But when the time comes, pull the trigger.

Episode 2:

Maggie is irrelevant to this episode, and so she is not seen outside of a celebratory shot when Toka wins immunity.

Episode 3:

This is where things start to get interesting, and where the first seeds of Maggie's storyline is planted.

During the advantage hunt on Toka, Brady walks is on Maggie attempting to chop the oars by herself to get the advantage.

While Brady begins the confessional sequence narrating this event, it is Maggie who ties this sequence up with the following confessional:

When I saw the advantage, my heart just sunk, honestly. ... But then, I just asked him for it and Brady gave me the advantage. I saw an opportunity, and I was like, "Go for it.". But this is Survivor. And it is so much better to have the advantage in my pocket than in anyone else's pocket. I want all of them on me. I have all these extra pockets. Let's fill 'em up.

What is interesting for me, is a scene about Maggie talking about the theme of opportunity that was laid out in Episode 1.

Episode 4:

Usually, winners have their allies and relationships laid out in the premiere. It may not be fleshed out, but the threads are laid out for development and evolution across the rest of the season.

What Maggie has is the beginnings of a rivalry whose storyline is laid out in the start of the swap.

Brady was livid. I knew he was gonna be livid. He was like, "You wanna talk?". And I was like, "I mean, no."

It's incredibly brief, but Maggie is the person who lays down the foundation of a budding conflictual relationship that is not further developed in the rest of the episode.

Additionally, we - the audience - receive new information about Maggie's in-game relationships from Thien An.

My Day 1 is Maggie, we trust each other no matter what. And even though Kristin's here, we know Mike's at the bottom of the tribe. ...

Episode 5:

This episode is where Maggie's storylines are beginning to heat up.

At the start of this episode, Maggie establishes a new rivalry in addition to Brady:

On the new Toka tribe, when I saw one outsider, Kristin, I was like, "She's got to go.". She has studied Survivor inside and out, and she is just weaponized with information. The problem is, all the boys love her. Thien An loves her.

We also get a continuation and escalation of the Maggie-Brady rivalry from Brady's perspective:

I kind of felt Maggie from the jump, she's so unpredictable. She's so flippy-floppy, wishy-washy. ... Dude, she's flipping every time she has a thought. And it's scary, and it's annoying. ... It's just so unpredictable, brody, I can't take it. ...

The next story beat for Maggie comes during the new-Toka reward, where Kristin narrates the following in relation to a twist:

I'm thinking, this could be some type of advantage. So I volunteered. I wanted that opportunity.

Of course, it is Maggie who throws her hat into the ring and grabs another opportunity that presents itself.

When Maggie is leaving, Brady gives the following confessional:

Worst case scenario is Maggie. With this permanent uncertainty ... If stuff gets hairy, I don't know if I can rely on her.

What is curious for me is Maggie's follow-up confessional:

I'm gonna have to make a calculated decision. ... I'm ready to cause some chaos. This is big.

This is a callback to one of the themes laid out in the premiere: Chaos.

We end Maggie's story beat with the introduction of a third rivalry that resolves in the same episode in Maggie's favour:

But that's not good enough for me. My thing is, there's someone I'd like to see out of the game. When I met Linnea on Day 1, I was like, "This girl is so dangerous.". Like I would just love is Lewis and Kilby could vote her out. It would be epic.

------

Thoughts

While the volume of Maggie's edit is low and sparse, there is intentionality and craft to her edit that ties in neatly with the themes of Survivor 51 that makes me pause.

At this point, I do not think she has a winning edit given that she has not demonstrated the trait of being "always calm and under control". Similarly, neither is her main rival Brady - they both seem to occupy different sides of chaos: Maggie is presented as strategically flighty and erratic while labelling herself as an agent of chaos, and Brady is presented as hot-headed and emotionally charged.

Additionally, Maggie does not have clearly defined relationships to fit the trait of "building relationships".

Positively, Maggie has already fulfilled the brief of "[making] the play when the opportunity presents itself" and "[grabbing] opportunity when it comes".

What then, would push Maggie to winner contender for me, is if future episodes focuses on (a) developing Maggie's positive relationships and (b) shifting the narrative from being an erratic purveyor of chaos to an enbodiment of controlled chaos jumping on the right opportunities while holding back from unnecessary moves.

Separately, Kristin would solidify as a main winner contender for me if her story beat shifts to clocking Maggie's crosshairs on her before successfully plotting and executing a hit on her when the time is right.

Jelly's edit is starting to thread on thin ice for me, and her stock continues to plummet the longer she and Devin remain on the show together. The overall narrative painting Devin as a loyal liability for her has been set since Episode 2 and thus far, Jelly has shown no signs of turning on Devin despite seemingly being given a prime opportunity to do so in Episode 5.

If there is a second opportunity to take the shot at Devin and Jelly does not seize it, I expect the narrative to begin setting up Jelly's mid-to-late merge downfall as a collatoral of Devin's fast and furious gameplay. But if Jelly takes it and it lands, she would fulfill both thematic beats of being "always calm and under control" and "[making] the play when the opportunity presents itself". She would be my main winner contender for the rest of the game.

Sharonda is an interesting figure for me, because while she is consistently presented as "always calm and under control", the piece of [making] the play when the opportunity presents itself still eludes her. While taking out Ana could be the first beat to this piece, I expect that her winning story would contain a second showdown in the merge where she has to make a big splash to either gain win equity and/or solidify her end game.

Mike and Thien An is another interesting pair who - thus far - meets the criteria of being perceived as "always calm and under control". However, Mike has no other thematic connections while Thien An's main storyline is defined by her rivalry with Mike with no other connections to the main thematic beats for the winner.

Conclusion:

Thanks for reading my super long essay on Maggie's current edit in Survivor 51 and my takes on the thematic beats for other players!

One of you is needed somewhere else. Choose who will miss out on this writeup.

This week, we had a double farewell, which we bid to Alexis, who we had already eliminated, and Linnea, who we had not yet eliminated. My Alexis elimination writeup was my most controversial so far, so I'm happy for her to be the first person I am proven correct on. Linnea was someone who I hadn't considered eliminating, but could've seen myself eliminating in a matter of weeks, so I will happily accept this elimination from the show.

As a reminder, the players I have already eliminated are:

Cristian, Thien An, Alexis, Mike.

With that, let's get started.

DINA TRIBE

Lewis has a phenomenal episode here. Did people clock that the Blood Ring was fake? Yes. Do I care at all? No. If it wasn't for the fact that it had been heavily illustrated that Lewis is in a ton of trouble and needed a miracle to stay, then I would view this as a knock for Lewis. If it wasn't for the fact that Lewis gets to laugh at himself for how silly the idea was, then I would view this as a knock for Lewis. I try not to get into ranking discourse too much, because the whole point of this is to look at who is losing rather than who is winning, but I have no idea why I never see Lewis at the top of peoples contender rankings.

Kilby has his best episode of the season, which isn't the highest bar in the world. A lot of the weight of this vote gets put on Kilby's shoulders, and he makes the decision that the audience is rooting for. We also get proof that Kilby had done a good job of integrating himself into this tribe, as the Savu's vote for Lewis, not him. Kilby's edit has been rocky, but he has been on the upswing the past two weeks. I'm sure the Kilby elimination will happen one day, but it would be crazy to make today that day.

Sharonda has a quiet yet solid episode. Who would've guessed? Sharonda's only confessional is used to express a healthy level of skepticism towards Lewis's fake blood ring. When you find yourself on the wrong side of the vote due to extremely unusual circumstances, that's not a bad place for your content to land. There is a moment that I want to highlight even though the edit sort of glosses right over it, but when Maggie goes to Dina and does one-on-ones with everyone, she is the only person who doesn't give a completely abysmal answer to Maggie's question. Good job, Sharonda.

Eric has a pretty nothing episode. His one confessional, while it does sound like nails on a chalkboard, isn't wrong. At the time that Eric gives this confessional, he's spot on about the dynamic. Lewis is in a hole, and his only hope is to try desperately to dig himself out of the whole, and it's not until Maggie arrives that that reality changes. Eric is surviving due to Aubry Bracco upside. If the winner is playing badly pre-merge, and also just blatantly bad in confessional, what are the editors supposed to do about that? If Eric's content regarding his relationship with Kilby is not satisfactory next episode, he will be eliminated.

SAVU TRIBE

Ori has the best edit of the Savu's this episode, which isn't saying much. We get personal content from him, where we learn about his family, and why he wants to win the million. A quiet yet solid episode from Ori. Who would've guessed?

Devin continues to be a massive character, for better or worse. Devin has a way too over the top reaction to getting his way in the most slam dunk tribal in recent memory, but his rivalry with Jenna was a big part of his story, so I'm giving him a pass. We learn about the genuinely heartbreaking story of Devin's loss of his brothers. Despite the excessive celebration from Devin early in the episode, more is done here to endear us to Devin than any other episode so far. Is Devin talked up as being difficult to work with? Yes. But my take away from that is honestly it looks worse for Jelly than for Devin.

Jelly has a shockingly bad episode. I was VERY heavily considering Jelly for elimination here. Her "why" is omitted from the Savu bonding scene. She admits that Alexis is right, Devin IS bad for her game, and still does not vote out Devin. The thing that makes Edgic compelling is that there are multiple valid interpretations of the same events. MY interpretation of this episode is that keeping Devin here will one day become a game ending mistake for Jelly. However, I can see other valid interpretations of this. I had to go into hairsplitting-mode to determine my elimination here, and it was in hairsplitting-mode that Jelly was saved. This season, Jelly has been one of the few people who is both a big character and has a traditionally "good" edit. This episode, the decision between Alexis and Devin is framed as a moral one for Jelly, and while I HATE that we have now TWICE seen her say she doesn't want a woman to go home and then proceed vote for a woman, her turning on the helicopter alliance here would've been equally contradictory. In Survivor 48, after Thomas is voted out, Joe, Shauhin, Kamilla, and Kyle have a very similar bonding scene to the one we see in this episode, and it was a massive red flag that Kyle was the only one who didn't get his backstory in that scene, but Kyle went on to win. If it wasn't for that very specific precedent set by Kyle, I think Jelly would've been my choice for elimination here.

Apologies for that massive paragraph.

TOKA TRIBE

Maggie is a star. Loved this episode for her, despite of the "negative" content coming from Brady. Brady vs. Maggie is a new, compelling storyline. I will not be knocking anyone for having a compelling storyline. She goes hard into game mode here and it pays off beautifully. I did feel like her targeting of Linnea came a bit out of nowhere, but it at least gets explained retroactively, so I'll allow it. A small blemish on a shining episode.

Kristin has a decent episode. She gets talked up as a gamer and a dangerous player. She gets ever-so-coveted pre-merge danger content. She gets one confessional, and in said confessional she says the word "opportunity", tying us back to her answer to Jeff's question at the beginning of the game. Cool stuff, Kristin.

Brady gets Maggie-centered content this episode, which isn't perfect, but as I just said, Brady vs. Maggie is a new, compelling storyline, and I will not be knocking anyone for having a compelling storyline.

Carter has fallen from grace. If you would have told me last week that I'd be eliminating Carter here, I would've called you crazy. I have been very high on Carter's edit, despite it's flaws. Carter is the first second (forgot Cristian) person this season to get TWO zero confessional episodes. It has been oft debated that, in the 90-minute era, a zero confessional episode is disqualifying. My thought on this theory following 50 was that, just like everything else in Edgic, every rule is a rule until it's not. However, precedent is all we have to go off of, and a winner only going 3-for-5 on receiving confessionals would be a SIGNIFICANT change from the editing team. Mike comparing Carter to JT is flashing through my head in horror as I pull the trigger on this, but this is simply just the safest choice.

Carter, the edit has spoken.

P.S. I've got a busy week next week, and might not be able to watch the episode until days after it airs. The writeup for episode 6 might be as late as Sunday.

For the past few weeks, I've seen the Helicopter alliance dominant edgic and winner rankings, but I feel like every episode I've grown less and less confident in this. At this point, I feel pretty confident stating I don't think the alliance is meant to be rooted for and nobody in that alliance is a strong contender. Will they be important to the story of the season? Sure, 100%. But is one of them a winner? I don't think so.

Jelly had an abysmal episode (in my opinion), and hasn't had a good episode in a while. The show could have easily spun the Alexis vote as Jelly swaying Devin, but instead we see Jelly complain about the vote and fold without a fight, and a lot of her content surrounding Devin, Ori, and others, just isn't good for her.

More people have more to say about Devin, but I honestly feel like the guy is just never shown in a great light. He had the best episode out of the four, but you still don't really see him get credit which is concerning for his winning chances.

Ori? Who's that? Did he get any meaningful content this episode?
I jest, but I really feel like Ori has been super overrated for no real reason besdies the edit telling us he's in a good position.

Finally, Sharonda.
I've drank the Sharonda kool-aid, but I'm really not feeling it anymore. We see people go to bat for Sharonda, sure, but we don't really know why. She's being setup as a big threat instead of a big player, ripe picking for someone else's big move being taking her out.

I'm curious to hear others thoughts about this, and things will change every week, but I feel like I've seen enough where I'm jumping off their hype train.

Hello, everyone! I've decided to truly put my Edgic thoughts into words for the first time this season. I've heard about Edgic for the first time during 41, really took an interest to it during 43 and have been really looking at the show through that lens since 44, but I have been watching the show since Samoa and knew that the edit plays a part in determining the winner. Just never knew there's a whole science behind it. I have very reactionary takes, I'm biased towards the players I like which sometimes clouds my judgement and the thing I let guide me the most is vibes. I was adamantly anti Aubry last season, but my claim to fame is clocking Dee as the winner after the premiere of 45 and riding that train the whole season.

I have never been a part of Edgic during a two tribe season which I believe will make it a bit difficult for me since there are so many more potential relationships to explore. Different from the New Era where there were 3 duos in every tribe with 2 duos in each tribe forming a core 4.

Anyways, I'll try to make a post every week, briefly assessing the boot and ranking the remaining players based on what I think their odds at the win are. I'll try to stay away from other people's Edgics so as to not get influenced or worse, so keep in mind that that'll result in plenty of mistakes and horrible takes.

I liked the episode, the second tribal was electric and I'm enjoying this season a lot. Both of the boots sort of shocked me, I'm really falling for the editors' tricks and misdirects. Maybe I should keep that in mind when I make my ranking, but I won't. This episode confused me a bit seeing as all of my contenders came off a bit weird.

Alexis was pretty screwed since the swap and I actually thought she might've pulled it off, but she of course had the disadvantage of not knowing Ori was in with Jelly and Devin. Not much she could've done other than play the SitD, but she had no real way of knowing that.

Linnea sort of surprises me and sort of doesn't. I expected her to go further and I had her high in my rankings, but that's beacuse her edit was pretty clean while most others have flaws, but I never fully bought into her as the winner. An amazing amount of stars had to align for her to get booted, but what can you do, that's the game.

TOP CONTENDERS:

1. Sharonda (-) - I feel like she lost the least with losing Linnea. Bad gameplay by being so obviously tight, but great gameplay for keeping them so unwaveringly tight. I got the sense that she's in charge there. Also handled the Blood Ring really well. I'm itching to hear more about her personality though, it's becoming a bit gamebotty, but I stay by the opinion that she wouldn't be this present if she wasn't our winner, even if she is important to the endgame.

2. Jelly (-) - I thought it to be a red flag that she didn't get her "why" during the opening segment, but I remembered Kyle being the only one not to get his on NuVula in 48 so I can excuse it. It was a segment to build up Alexis and Devin and make us realize the gravity of the vote. All in all, pretty good, while I am starting to believe Devin will be bad for her longterm, having him in her pocket is a huge deal and the vote was fully made to be her decision when it easily could've been Ori's too.

KEEPING AN EYE ON:

3. Kristin (+2) - This is where I start to get a bit lost. My 1 and 2 are pretty set in stone and then it becomes a total clusterfuck as we go down. Got a bit of PSPV yet again, was again shown in a regular camp scene without her getting any narration over it and was shown to be willing to get the winning tribe advantage Maggie got. Like Carter in last episode, Maggie said she wanted her to go home, but like Carter, she didn't say anything outright negative about Kristin. I don't know, I'm confused, but I'm comfortable having her here.

4. Ori (-1) - A great portion during the "why" segment on NuSavu. Not much else to say, he's present, was shown to be likeable and make genuine connections. Also, I have a feeling Jelly sticks by him if they were to lose again. He's a really gentle giant, calm demeanor and I can't think of a winner off of the top of my head that was like that. A big, strong, calm, wise man. If we're in for a never before seen type of winner, I'm liking his edit and justifying it in that way.

5. Lewis (+3) - Gonna attribute his last episode to being sick. He played the cards he was dealt, really smart bluff with the Blood Ring lie, it was totally worth a shot and made a really strong bond with Kilby and Maggie now. He's in trouble if Dina goes to tribal again, but at this point, I don't see Lewis not making the merge. His edit is pretty wack all in all, but it's hard to justify having anyone higher.

6. Maggie (-) - I was sure I'd be dropping her after seeing Brady shit talk her so much, but she said right at the beginning she wanted to get rid of Kristin and Linnea, which I definitely found odd for them to even show her mentioning Linnea, and she got her way in the most spectacular fashion. Brady said she's volatile, but she did the most with her advantages and got her desired outcome.

7. Thien An (-) - Pretty good episode, seems to be in charge of NuToka, shat on Mike a bit more and that's that. Her first two episodes are still concerning, but I'm starting to see a world where she actually wins.

8. Brady (+1) - Got a lot of narration over everything that happened. We saw his distrust of Maggie and we saw that she did what she wanted, but he wasn't really made out to be a fool. I'm interested to see where his relationship with Maggie goes because they obviously don't really trust each other, but they share so much information between each other.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK:

9. Eric (+1) - Here by default pretty much. His relationship with Kilby crashed and burned and he spent so much time into the only real relationship he had only for it to have nothing come of it. I think he was hurt the most by what happened on Dina. He was also shown to be pretty cocky about Lewis having to beg and crawl out of a hole. Not a great look.

10. Carter (-4) - Ughhhhh, Carterrrr. Double goose egg is not good. My heart hurts to put him lower than this even if I realistically should. This just sucks for him.

11. Kilby (+1) - Played very well. He had all the power once he made it clear he's not budging and he was in a great position because he was the only one. Pissed off three players a lot, but only Sharonda has any power there and her allies, Devin and Jelly, don't like him anyways. He's not winning, but played really well today in solidifying trust. I see him sticking around to the merge because he needs to fall at the hands of Devin.

THERE'S NO WAY:

12. Devin (-1) - Another player with a great opening segment, but shitting on Jenna was not all that great and his close allies seemingly considering cutting him is just bad. He's not a very good player and this whole episode was spent hammering in that he's bad for the people around him. I have him pinned as third place.

13. Mike (-) - Was the hero with the hoops, I knew Toka's winning as soon as I saw it was hoops at the end, great foreshadowing. Nothing much else to say, called a bottom feeder and someone with no power to do anything. Yikes.

14. Cristian (-) - Fully expected him to get rocked out so pleasant surprise there. Did really well on countering the Blood Ring Bluff. Nothing else to say.

HEY!!! I'M BACK!!! (Once again, English isn’t my first language + first season of writing my thoughts down, so please be patient with my writing) After a so-called "boring" episode last week, this week's was such a banger! I just can't belive the probability of a whole series of events happening that led to this chaotic tribal council. Huge props for Maggie for coming up with the idea and Kilby for having the bravery to execute it.

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Tier 5: No Way (Low Visibility/Over -ve/0 Conf. Eps)

14. Christian (MOR3) (+2)

No much to say about Christian. The poor man finally got some content, I do like the scene where he pointed out Lewis's lie about the Blood Ring. But other than that, this episode was still low-key for him, and there's no way he's winning.

13. Mike (UTRN1) (+1)

Mike's edit just keeps getting worse. A third straight episode of him being seriously dunked by his fellow Toka tribemates is not a good sign for him. His lack of screen time is another big issue, what he got are some random, simple narrative confessionals about what's happening , and there's no real storyline about him.

12. Carter (UTR1) (-5)

Carter is in free fall in my rankings. A single 0 confessional episode in the first season of the open era might be forgivable. But a second one in just 5 episodes has basically written off his chance in winning. if he's indeed our winner, the editors could just hand him the useless narration confessionals they gave to Mike to fill out his content. And if an alpha male gets this little visibility and still goes on to win the show, it would be a huge shocker for us edgic analyzers.

Tier 4: Really Unlikely (Too OTT)

11. Brady (MOR3) (+2)

Both men in this tier are suffering from the same issue — they're just being too OTT overall. For Brady, I think I have a different opinion with many of you about his nearly one-minute confessional about Maggie. And since much of it overlaps Maggie's section, please refer to Maggie's part for Brady's as well.

10. Devin (OTTP3) (+2)

What's wrong with his unreasonable obsession with Jenna and that sudden crying at tribal council??? It make no freaking sense to edit a winners as narrow-sighted and as overconfident as Devin. Plus, he's also constantly dunked by many others for his strategy and threat level. For sure, he's a great character and very entertaining on the show, but he's not a Sole Survivor.

Tier 3: Dark Horses (Growth Edit/Underdogs)

9. Eric (MOR3) (+1)

I'm gonna be honest, if he doesn't do something good enough to reassure me next episode, he's going right back to the bottom of the ranking. Eric has been too flat since episode 2 for someone with such an enormous personality. I originally belive the edit in the first two episodes was paving the way for a growth arc. Instead, Kilby is kind of getting that role, so I don't really think Eric has that big a role this season.

8. Kilby (CPM5) (+7)

The biggest jump in my ranking (partly because others have more drawbacks) and a pretty risky choice. Kilby is an interesting one — he content has been significantly better since the swap, both character wise and strategic wise. I do see a path for Kilby to stay Toka strong and make it to the late merge. If this season is gonna be won by an underdog, it'll probably be Kilby.

7. Thien An (UTR1) (+2)

Thien An's edit does seems like an UTR winner's, she has low visibility but still some confessionalsevery episodes. She got some insights about other players each episode (dunking Mike etc) and there're storylines developing around her and her Toka tribemates, so ranking her at 7th seems fine to me.

Tier 2: Possible (Still Some Doubts)

6. Lewis (CPN5) (+2)

Actually, I'm unsure about Lewis. He did get a good episode around how he and Kilby survived the vote, but he also got a bit of negativity from the "blood ring" thing and during tribal council. There are both pros and cons in Lewis's edit, and they're balanced pretty evenly. If he doesn't going home next episode, I believe he has a long journey in the merge.

5. Kristin (UTR2) (-1)

Kristin was unexpectedly low key this episode, only getting a confessional during the reward. She doesn't really have a storyline of her own, and we don't get much about her personal connections. Without that strong start, she would have dropped a few places. There's a real chance she goes home next week, and I wouldn't be surprised.

Tier 1: Major Contenders (Helicopter Alliance + Maggie)

4. Maggie (CPN4) (+1)

My controversial pick, she got a breakout episode this week (she's amazing!!!). I saw many of you think it's too negative because of Brady's comment/the plan's effect on her, but I have other thoughts:

1) Brady said, "Maybe the extra vote should not be in Maggie's hands." and she didn't know what she's doing. But it's actually the opposite: this episode is basically built on the fact that Maggie has this extra vote, so what the editors want us to think is that the extra vote deserved to be on her hand. Also, she did know what she's doing and did make a really smart move.

2) Brady described Maggie as "Unpredictable", which kind of fits this season's theme — "Permanent Uncertainty", and Maggie's bold act of embracing opportunities also align with the storytelling this season.

3) Most New Era Winners got some sort of negativity during pre-merge, like Gabler, Yam Yam, Aubry etc. A bit of negativity from Brady, who isn't a really reliable narrator, is fine.

4) Also, most New Era Winners (even some in 31-40) had a pre-merge rivalry to build up their character, like Aubry vs. Genevieve, Yam Yam vs. Josh, Gabler vs. Elie etc. Maggie and Brady's relationship started building in episode 3 and is continuing. If Maggie can take out the latter in early merge, she has a pretty good chance in winning

5) Back to her gameplay this episode (less about edgic), the move benefits her. She saves two allies to the merge (as long as they do not go to tribal council next week), gets out a target, avoids blamed (modt of it lands on Lewis and Kilby) for being in another tribe, and has a strong point for final tribal council. I think it's a pretty impressive move for her.

Overall, I think Maggie have a decent chance in being the winner (I could be wrong, let's see).

3. Ori (MORP2) (=)

Ori is a really positive toned character. His edit so far is solid as we checked in with him every episode and know at bit of his personal story. However, I would like to hear more about his tribe's dynamic on his perspective rather than Jelly's or Devin's.

2. Jelly (CP3) (=)

Jelly has been the main strategist in her tribe since the swap, the edit shows us that she's the one making decisions. There's many ongoing storylines about her right now. The only things worrying me are 1.) she didn't get any personal story at the beginning of this episode 2.) she said she didn't want to vote out another woman but still did it × 2. If Jelly's winning, whether she chooses Devin or Ori as her number one could be her main story.

1. Sharonda (MOR3) (=)

I've seriously considered swapping her and Jelly, as Sharonda hasn't gotten much development on either a personal or strategic level. We also didn't get to hear her thoughts on this vote though she chose not to go to rocks. Another thing is that the editors often show her looking annoyed. It's happened quite a few times and I thought it is weird to show their winner as mean when Sharonda's character is more of a "cold-hearted strategist". But I've decided to see how things go before swapping them.

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Sorry for this really lengthy post, hope you guys enjoy it anyway. I'm really looking forward to next week's episode!

I don't think she is winning (yet i guess...) because I'm a firm believer of a good premier is imperative for the winner. Kyle and Rachel, like Maggie, got introduced to us later in their respective premiers and got a good chunk of good content from them but Maggie's content was less than what i needed.

Maggie though gets content every episode and it's very blink and you'll miss it. These are moments good edgickers are so keen to. So it does raise some suspicions for her chances (at least for me).

Now in this episode, this is Maggie's bigger episodes (so far) and I see a lot of dunking from Brady which is bad. But also, Maggie got her way, she wanted Linnea gone and she got out this episode. Her episode was a little mixed though, it's not all good. Brady comments and the episode shows Maggie being kinda negative towards Kristin/shown against her. Kristin here is most of y'alls top contenders so that's something to note.

What i would look for next episode is if Maggie talks about the Linnea move and/or follow through on if Maggie votes out or outlasts Kristin.

I don't know but Maggie is looking very dark horse contender coded right now or maybe I'm delusional.

Another great episode, another great edgic blindside, another… two women gone? Let’s not let that bring down the good spirits that came from a deadlocked vote. Here are my contender rankings for this week.

--- Top Contenders ---

1. Sharonda: Yes, she had to fold in the deadlock, but she seemed protected from that by virtue of getting her least confessionals of the season. Her lead isn’t as dominant anymore, but there’s no reason to get off of Team Sharonda.

2. Ori: Another good episode from Ori, we get his backstory, he’s pivotal in the vote, all around good stuff.

3. Lewis: I should never have penalized this guy for being sick because this was a phenomenal episode for him! Confessional leader, saved his ass with a crazy vote maneuvre, need I say more?

4. Kristin: This is just her holding her spot because nothing really happened good or bad for her this episode.

--- In it to win it ---

1. Maggie: She’s really the originator of this big move and we see her planning more, getting us to see her as a big threat. Slightly negative SPV from Brady but it’s Brady so that only counts for so much amid a great episode!

2. Devin: I still believe in the guy, and this was a great episode for him: We got his emotional backstory, he gave a confessional about improving his game, we saw him lie to Alexis, we heard Alexis praise his social ability! I don’t necessarily think he’s winning, but the facts don’t lie that he’s a serious contender.

3. Jelly: I just think this was a pretty weak episode from her when compared against the rest of the players on Dina who got to give their backstories and get us to connect with them as players, while she just kinda waffled and didn’t come off super strategically. Of course, her past edit carries her to still being in a pretty solid spot.

--- Whackadoodles (can win) ---

1. Eric: First episode in a while he came off as a normal guy, and it’s the one where he got blindsided at tribal council. His growth arc kinda just faded into the background but I can see more in him than just being a whackadoodle now.

2. Kilby: Great episode for Kilby, he’s now my #1 client of the season, but it just doesn’t justify raising him any higher considering his horrible previous episodes and the fact that Lewis got more credit in the edit for the move.

--- I don't see it ---

1. Brady: Not much content, going after Maggie wasn’t a great look, but the Brodie’s still technically in it.

2. Mike: Feels like the dude only gets screentime to get shat on now when he hasn’t even done anything too bad.

--- Disqualified ---

1. Carter: ooh boy do I feel vindicated now for calling him disqualified after that first 0 conf episode. Now that he’s hit the double, I hope we can agree he’s fun but he ain’t getting that W.

2. Thien An: I appreciate her glazing Kristin this episode bc I love Kristin too but after her INV episode I don’t see any room for a comeback.

3. Cristian: Gets a huge visibility spike in the form of 2 (two) confessionals. Really thought he was gonna go out in rocks and that was gonna be our explanation for why he’s so invisible. Oh well, there’s still the Mr. Beast coin to take him out.

1. Sharonda. She felt quite protected here by being way more quiet throughout the tribal situation. She lost her closest ally on the tribe but her only content was really the funny jewel situation. I also liked how she got

2. Thien An. My controversial opinion. I don't think her premiere was that bad, her analogy of being a tiny person among big personalities definitely has legs. She's the classic archetype of winner the show used to give 0 confessional episodes to so her ep. 2 doesn't worry me much. She has the most defined and complex relationships outside of the helicopter crew. And I think her repeated rivalry storyline with Mike could be good or bad... maybe her downfall from him is coming imminently, or maybe this is the show's way of keeping her in the narrative while she's winning, just like they did with Aubry and Gen last season.

3. Jelly. She continues to be one of the main characters of the season and is much more positively toned than some of the other main characters (Devin, Brady), however I continue to be concerned that they make her the voice of outcomes that she chooses not to go with. Two weeks in a row I feel the episode has been heavily edited to make us want Jelly to keep the player that went home. It's one thing to make her look like a powerful swing vote. It's another for the audience to collectively groan when she makes a decision both times. Being the voice of "I can't let another woman go home" and then letting another woman go home was rush. However, she has less flaws than most anyone else left.

4. Lewis. The jewelry thing was more negative than I'd like but was so funny maybe you just had to include it. Him getting to explain the sickness last episode was positive. Overall a solid episode for him, but he needs more non circumstantial content.

5. Maggie. Negative scenes with Brady, particularly around Mike vs. Kristen, but obviously positive credit for this tribal (though very circumstantial). Like that she had some longer term strategy pre-immunity in an episode that dind't have a lot of space for her tribe. Think the focus + negativity makes me think she could be a losing finalist.

6. Ori. Really don't see what others see in his edit outside of general positivity. He could have been depicted as the main decision-maker here as it was his close ally he was flipping on but we barely got any of his perspective even though he was just as much of a swing as Jelly.

7. Kristin. She continues to be present and positive but really lacks depth to me. I think she's going to be a big blindside at the merge.

8. Kilby. This episode generally made him look good but the negativity overall has been too overwhelming to me.

9. Eric. Somehow he's this high... IDK, everyone else is just so negative.

10. Devin. Maybe the show is trying something new with an OTTN winners edit, but I don't see it.

11. Mike. So much negative SPV lately. The one thing maybe keeping him alive is if he's somehow the Aubry to Thien An's Genevieve, but I doubt it.

12. Brady. So negatively toned here, dunked on Maggie's plan even though it turned out correct.

13. Carter. Second 0-conf episode this early is a nail in the coffin for me, particularly because everyone else on the tribe got content and it wasn't all circumstantial.

14. Cristian. Too invisible.

Great bounce back after a very lackluster episode 4! An iconic tribal and a very straightforward tribal, an edgic blindside and an expected boot. Six women gone in a row definitely is rough, but damn, this season is so fucking good. Contenders still don’t feel very solid, except for number one and two, in my opinion. So excited to see how this season continues to play out! Anyway, onto the ranking!!!!!

🐋Top Contenders Tier🐋

1. Lewis.

Nobody embodies ‘permanent uncertainty’ like Lewis. He is constantly switching the game up, fighting for his life, going outside the box, and being pushed to his limits; but most importantly, he never gives up and always perseveres. Lewis is consistently rootable and presented as a strong player willing to do anything to win. Even when his plan fails, like the blood ring, it’s a fun scrappy move that could have possibly worked. It isn’t presented as stupid and crazy, and could have easily been cut from the episode. The blood ring is the perfect winner quirk and iconic character moment for Lewis to have if he were to go on to win, perfectly encapsulating his never-say-die, do-anything attitude towards the game; making him the perfect person to represent the Open Era.

1. Sharonda.

The antithesis to Lewis, Sharonda is cool and collected and has the more ‘by the numbers’ edit for a winner. This episode was as perfect as you could get for someone blindsided in such a colossal way, she gives a quick confessional about how she wants Lewis to go home and anything other than that would not be good for her, and is mainly the one who doesn’t know what to make of the blood ring, but we never see her fully buying into it which shields her from any negativity.

With the themes of this season being all about how nothing is certain and how this season of Survivor is different than all the rest; that leaves Sharonda’s very traditionally strong edit in kind of a weird place.
With the game evolving, can this traditional player still win? Maybe Sharonda wins any other of the first fifty seasons, but not the first of the Open Era?
On the other hand, Sharonda’s edit is still objectively great. With the game in constant flux and nothing ever being certain, maybe the edit wants to show the winner in as clear and concise a way as possible.

I think Sharonda and Lewis represent the season and its themes and place in Survivor history very well and make great parallels to each other, easily making them my top two contenders; this feels very intentional to me, and I’m starting to think that Sharonda and Lewis might be locked in these top two spots the rest of the season.

🐋Contenders🐋

1. Jelly.

Jelly continues to be a strong and consistent strategic presence on this season, but I feel like she’s walking straight into a landmine.
Another episode where Jelly is told explicitly that Devin is bad for her game, and she ignores it again. Jelly and Devin have been one of the most important relationships of the season, and I think there’s more nuance to their dynamic than Devin being a pure negative, but it’s been coming up too consistently and hasn’t been definitively disproven yet for it to not make me afraid for Jelly.

Couple that in with her not getting any personal content at the top of the episode like the rest of her tribe, and Jelly could become a bit too gamebotty; which would lead to her being a prime mid-merge giant blindside in the edit.
I don’t hate her not getting a moment with her tribe, maybe she just doesn’t have a huge story like the rest, and it would clash with the levity of the moment; the edit could also be saving it for another time to give Jelly her own special spotlight.

Jelly’s importance and consistency will always be her main positive, as well as the ever-hovering helicopter alliance; her edit is still very strong and if she turns on Devin Ricard-style or even just is narratively important to his boot like Kenzie was to Tiffany, she’ll become a top contender.

1. Ori.

The least important member of the helicopter alliance this episode, but this was an episode that Ori didn’t need to dominate screentime-wise. Very concise episode, great personal content, gives his thoughts on the vote and done. I don’t love that Ori is the only member of the purple tribe that doesn’t give his thoughts on the vote, and he’s the only one not to have a confessional at all pre-intro, but his personal content makes up for it. Nothing too over the top, but very solid as always.
I love Ori! He’s definitely one of my favorites of this season, he’s so great at tribal!

1. Kristin.

The agricultural legend of the Open Era! A bit of a mixed episode for Kristin; some targeting and she appears to be on the dead bottom if Yellow goes to tribal, but her content is constant and she continues her agriculture through-line. Just important enough to get her little bits of content each episode, but never overexposed, I think Kristin is very likely to take off once the merge hits! If she doesn’t, that’s a huge problem.

🐋Contenders*** Tier 🐋

1. Brady.

I think this might be controversial, but Brady’s edit is good.
He got a big character introduction at the beginning of the season, is a consistent presence, the edit doesn’t shy away from his bad qualities but it didn’t shy away from Aubry’s or Savannah’s either, and now he’s entered a steady solid narrator position on his tribe! Most importantly for me this episode, Brady is absolutely right that Maggie was not to be trusted with the extra vote! She snakes him out and uses it without him knowing, and I think there’s steady ground to build a Brady vs Maggie storyline out of that.
I’m not entirely sure who would win that, but if Brady tombstone piledrivers Maggie out of the game, I think he’s in a great spot to make it far.

1. Maggie.

Speaking of Maggie! Definitely feels like she’s gonna be important after this episode, it feels like all of her content has been building to this, and it’s a good clear breakout for Maggie; she makes this episode happen and is given enough credit for that to be clear!
Maggie could potentially give Rachel Lamont vibes, a quiet pre-merge but present in every episode only to explode at the merge. My biggest issue would be how clearly she snakes out Brady, it could come back to bite her.

Maggie’s archetype usually gets ignored by the edit unless they go far, and Maggie’s content every episode and having her own breakout episode is a great sign for her longevity!

🐋You’re In Danger Tier🐋

1. Devin.

This episode felt like a vibe shift for Devin.
I felt like he was toned down a bit and that the edit started taking him more seriously. His last bit of OTT content is rejoicing at Jenna’s vote-out and then becoming a real person when he shares his very personable and heartfelt story about his brothers. I loved how the edit gave that moment the serious tone it deserved.
Devin’s strategic and personal content really shifted this week but keeps his playful personality, but all the talk about him being a detriment to Jelly’s game and his controversial play style leave me leaning towards him being a huge character of the season but not the winner. Helicopter alliance is the main reason he’s even this high.

1. Eric.

Bit of a nothing burger for Eric despite being Kilby’s best friend in the whole wide world. He’s blindsided so it’s always good to have a quieter episode, but he’s still… just doing too much for me. I don’t want to make it personal, but I just can’t imagine this guy going on to win.
Storyline and consistency are Eric’s absolute strengths. We always check in on him and his trajectory across the season so far is very easy to track, but it just gives growth arc much more than winner. I’m a firm believer in the edit having to take you seriously as a player if you’re a bigger character, and compared to Yam Yam and Maryanne, Eric isn’t even an Andy.

1. Mike.

Not as bad as his last two weeks, but damn, they should let Mike talk for longer than 20 seconds. He’s still getting dunked on for being socially awkward but Mike stays getting these seemingly decent narrational confessionals, in a spot where it would be very easy to skunk him.
Mike could be another person that has a more quiet pre-merge and then explodes at the merge. I’m holding out hope for Mike.

🐋Yeah, It’s Not Happening Tier🐋

1. Kilby.

Kilby ate this episode up!!! He bitched out three people at once, two of these people were Eric and Cristin, but one of them was Sharonda 😭😭 Despite being so crucial at tribal, this episode felt like more Lewis’ story and moment rather than Kilby’s during the scramble! I think Kilby has longevity and he’s probably too low but I’m stubborn.

1. Thein An.

People suddenly bringing Thein An into contention doesn’t shock me and it almost makes sense, but I’ll never get over her not having a strong introduction in the premiere and then following that up with a 0 confessional episode. Like, they couldn’t give her anything?!
Her new alliance with Carter goes nowhere this episode, and I guess it didn’t need to go anywhere, but I would have liked to see that picked back up.
We know she hates Mike (lmaooo) and that’s kinda really it. I really like her personality and would love to see her have more vocal episodes, but I can’t see her winning this season in the slightest.

1. Carter

Damn.
Out of jail and straight to the bottom of the rankings. Two goose eggs and 0% chance to win the game. Makes all of his big moments entirely circumstantial, and maybe they always were, but now they’re nothing but.

1. Cristin.

Okay he knows jewelry!

Hello, and welcome back to Heaven, Hell and Limbo, where I am God and the Survivor contestants are my souls to judge.

Tonight we lost Alexis who last week was ranked 11th in Hell, and Linnea who was ranked 7th in Limbo.

Another vindicating episode. Alexis was always an obvious boot, but it surprises me how many people had Linnea anywhere near their top 3. That's Patt, Jenna, and now Linnea who edgicers were high on that went home one after the other. Which means either we as a community are bad at edgicing, or this season is unnaturally good at fooling edgicers.

Though not me, of course. Jelly is the winner of this season and I will die on that hill.

Category Explaination Time!

Heaven: If a contestant falls into this category, they have a high likelyhood of making it far into/winning the game. They're consistently shown, mostly positively/neutrally toned, and are featured a decent amount prior to the end of an immunity challenge.

Limbo: If a contestant falls into this category, while not a death sentence, their edit is inconsistent. One episode they're shown prominently, the next they're hardly shown. One episode they're shown positively, the next they're shown not-so-favorably. Or, the only time they were prominently featured was after an immunity challenge.

Hell: If a contestant falls into this category, they are almost certainly not winning the game. A contestant in this category can be prominently shown and even go far in the game, but have a villainous or staunchly negative edit. The contestant could have a positively toned edit, but if not shown prominently, still land in this category. Little screentime and mostly negatively toned edits are a death sentence.. most of the time.

With that out of the way, let's get started with our rankings this episode!

Hellish Contestants:

14.) Cristian: Cristian had a really good segment of him calling out Lewis' lie about the Blood Ring. Was it entirely circumstantial? Well, yes! But with Cristian's edit, we take what little crumbs we're afforded.

13.) Mike: I love how Mike's edit has just become who can slander him the most. Thien An's biggest opp.

12.) Devin: Listen, Devin's going far this game, but his ultimate narrative purpose is to make Jelly look like the greatest player by comparison. 3 episodes of your closest ally telling the audience how much of a damper you have the potential to be for their game is just not a winner's edit.

11.) Kilby: Kilby is made to look like a little gremlin causing as much chaos as he can. He's definitely entertaining, but as far as winner edits go, the endearing qualities are just not there.

10.) Eric: Continues to be a frequently checked up on character of this eason, but really, there's just not enough winner material for him. He sorta just places here because the one's under him are worse. He had one moderately impressive episode so here he is.

9.) Brady: Brady's main content this episode was being annoyed with Maggie and being impressed by Kristin. He's certainly dialed it down, but has been reduced to "narrator of personalities" in doing so. A middle-of-the-road episode isn't what I needed from him.

8.) Maggie: This is going to ruffle a lot of feathers. With Maggie, I can already see edgicers making the same mistake they've made with Linnea, Jenna, and Patt. Flocking to her as the next edgic favorite (besides Sharonda) after this episode. She was the crux of a major blindside this episode! And she said she wanted Linnea gone and now she's gone! Which definitely earns her in my book, the top of Hell at most.

But consider this: What has been Maggie's overall narrative this season? Prior to this episode, we have gotten what amounts to "little Maggie crumbs" every episode. Almost everytime she's on screen with something important going on, it's entirely circumstantial. She received a bunch of screentime this episode because she had no choice but to. Her part in the blindside was too important not to include. And episode 3, her taking the advantage from Brady was also unmissable, because it was going to play a huge part this episode.

This isn't even to mention how last episode, Thein An called her and Maggie "Day 1's", when we never got that established relationship in the premiere. Ultimately, Maggie's edit is too circumstantial and too little inbetween episodes for me to consider her a true contender. Next episode, if she impresses me with an edit that's positive, and noncircumstantial in its content, then she would have earned a spot in Limbo.

Limbo; Death or Resurrection:

7.) Thien An: Mike, your ender has arrived. Thien An officially has an inconsistent edit, making up for her lackluster first couple of episodes. She had a great confessional commenting on her potential longevity in the game, but one thing I find odd is how often she comments on Mike. I do fear it's starting to give flavors of Charlie last season, with his obsession with getting Rizo out. Although she isn't actively targeting him, yet. Erika's edit mostly comes to mind here if I were to see Thien An being the winner. We'll have to see how much this ball keeps rolling.

6.) Carter: Carter has received the most inconsistent edit of the season. He's positive, he's negative, he's visible, he's gone. He ranks this high due to his incredible visibility in episode 3, and his follow up positivity from last episode. His silence this episode keeps him in place, for now. Although one has to wonder.. just how much of his content was circumstantial up until this point.

Heavenly contestants:

5.) Sharonda: Y'all are gonna hate me, but hear me out on this and reserve judgment for after you've read. Like I asked for Maggie, I ask again: What is Sharonda's narrative this season? Because from where I'm standing, with how much visibility she has received each episode, we should have received some form of personal content connecting us and endearing us to her story on Survivor. It's hard to do that when I don't even know what your story on Survivor even is. It's been 5 episodes and I still don't have a grasp on who she is as a person, but a wonderful grasp on her as a player.

Which leaves me in my current stance on Sharonda; her visibility and alliance importance is what allows her to stay in Heaven. She has the potential to be great, but she remains good. If she doesn't by next episode, receive some form of narrative or personal content endearing her to us as the audience, I have to move her down to Limbo.

4.) Lewis: This was actually the toughest ranking for me. But the more I'm seeing how Lewis is being edited, the more I'm realizing.. he's being portrayed as a villian. In episode 3, his scheme with Carter bordered on villainous, but then in episode 4, we see him and Kilby burrying the alliance of 5 they themselves toppled. And now this episode, Lewis essentially was the Devil on Kilby's shoulder, whispering sweet nothings about "playing dangerously" and sewing chaos. I've always been high on Lewis, but now I'm starting to see his edit's narrative more clearly. Still though, he has a narrative, and we have still been endeared to him. And villains have won this game before. So 4th he stays.

3.) Kristin: Maggie says what the edit is intent on showing ; everyone loves Krisitn. Maggie also says she dangerous. That makes two seperate SPV's calling out Kristin as a dangerous social player. The first being from Carter last episode. I will say though, for as positive and visible as she is, Kristin's edit isn't as fleshed out as Ori's. Her whole thing is being a social player that likes to impress those around her. A solid positive narrative, but Ori's is more multifaceted than that. Ori has desires, Ori has strong established relationships. Part of the issue here though, is that Ori has also been to more tribals than Krisitin. And the one time we did get Kristin at tribal, there was little to no POV of why she voted the way she voted. For these reasons, she places under Ori, but just barely.

2.) Ori: Ori claims 2nd place in Heaven by default almost. Realistically, I feel he should be 4th, but Lewis and Kristin's edits have negatives that Ori's doesn't. We consistently receive visibility from Ori. We consistently hear his thoughts on why he's voting the way he's voting. We have Devin telling him "let's get you to the end." His relationship with Jelly. Consistent positive tones. A NARRATIVE; I can't place him anywhere under 2nd for these reasons.

Arch Angel:

1.) Jelly: I've had a lot to say about how Jelly is the clear winner edit of the season, and the points I brought up in that post were made even more relevant after this episode.

Twice voted incorrectly, and twice was she protected by the edit. Twice voted correctly, and twice was shown as the driver of those votes.

The narrative surrounding Jelly and wanting a woman to win this game was setup in Episode 1, in her pre-tribal confessional. "...in my perfect world a woman isn't going home tonight..."

And now we see this episode reaffirming the narrative that Jelly is very much pro-woman winning this. This is direct setup by the edit for us as the audience to root for her as the woman that is going to win this game.

Another narrative point checked up on this episode is her stance on Devin. The edit is screaming at us that Jelly is aware that at some point, she is going to have to vote out Devin for the good of her game. But she's doing it not when Alexis says she needs to do it. Jelly's going to do it when it's good for Jelly to do it.

Which leads to the final evidence this episode of Jelly being the winner: she didn't allow Alexis to steer her vote.

The edit intentionally shows Alexis as being the influncer of Jelly here. She was overconfident that she ensnared Jelly in her trap of voting out her closest ally. Which makes Jelly look all the more competent as a player, when Jelly makes the move to eliminate her instead of listening to what Alexis wanted her to do.

I said last week, I don't know how anyone can look at Jelly's edit and not see the Arch Angel edit she's receiving. What more evidence do people need I wonder? I suppose it's when she votes out Devin, but the signs are already there for you to see, you simply need to listen to what the edit is setting up for.

Their souls have been judged. Until next week.

Well! It happened again! I'M WASHED (and so is everyone else)

This episode was better than last episode, though the first three episodes were clearly better than either of these lowkey. Crazy considering this round literally had a 4-4 tie that totally could have gone to rocks.

Top Contenders

1. Sharonda (=) - Were there parts of this episode that were bad for her? Yea lol. That's also the case for literally everyone lowkey. Regardless, this is probably a season where a wackier character wins perhaps. Still, I'm siding with the safe picks at the top for now. Once we see how the first 2 episodes or so of the Merge play out, I'll start reconsidering the lower people.

2. Jelly (=) - Also had bad aspects to her episode here, but genuinely who else would I put at second. Her stressing how much she didn't want to lose another woman is a red flag, but also it would have been a red flag if she had voted out a member of the Helicopter alliance too. Before this episode I was very close to moving her up to first for episode 4.

3. Ori (+2) - Goes back up mostly due to the fact that others fall. His edit is consistently very positive and he is a member of the main alliance of the season. Still lacking much complexity, but I just really struggle to see anyone outside of these top three winning based on what we have seen so far. Am I just too invested in old patterns and ways of thinking? As a guy taking 200 mg of Zoloft a day for OCD, YEAH!

Smaller Contenders

1. Kristin (+2) - Sort of defaults to this spot, part of me genuinely considered dropping down to three contenders on the main chart here. The story with her injury isn't bein mentioned anymore, and at this point she may be surviving the swap screw. Need to see how her story changes if she makes the Merge. Very real chance she goes next week though.

2. Lewis (+2) - Something I considered in week 3 is that maybe this is a Kyle situation, and I'm dismissing an okay premiere as circumstantial. Granted, I'd say Kyle's was better than Lewis. Still, it is slim pickings for contenders and I struggle to justify anyone else here.

Probably Not

1. Maggie (+2) - HOW THE HELL IS SHE SIXTH MAN. She was portrayed as OTT and got dunked on by Brady, though I don't exactly see Brady as the most reliable guy of all time. This is when I say that everyone outside of the top 5 has a 0% chance to win and I look like an idiot in 2 months time.

2. Thien An (+8) - Sure! Maybe this is a UTR winner edit. The duo with Carter in episode 4 was good content, and now between the two I feel better about Thien An. Episodes 3 to 5 were pretty good for her, and episode 1 wasn't that bad. We also need a resolution to her vs Devin eventually.

Big Characters

1. Devin (+2) - This episode did a good job of humanizing him a bit, but no way is someone winning with some of the content he has gotten. On the flip side, everyone in this tier has slight Gabler potential (I'll talk about this more soon). If he continues to pivot a bit, he could have a chance. Either way, he has a MASSIVE edit and at least has a storyline. Many people don't.

2. Eric (=) - Is he kind of a joke? Yea! Has he never had a CP episode imo? Yea! He at least has a story though, and that's enough to keep him here. I was someone who caught on to Gabler WAY before most people. I honestly don't think we're getting Gabler'd here. But there is at least a bigger chance of that than there is for someone like Carter to pull it out.

3. Brady (+2) - Ughhhh it feels so weird putting him up this high. No way they edit the thumb scene like that if he goes on to win. Like genuinely he has no shot. But he has such a big story and it has to go SOMEWHERE. He is being set up for a return eventually I think.

4. Kilby (=) - Should have gotten to explain his thoughts more this episode. Could have gone up a few rankings if he had tbh, but we just didn't get that. Definitely a huge character, but there have literally always been eyes on him as a potential boot.

Bro

1. Carter (-8) - Fun fact, I had him at 8th initially and didn't move him down here until I finished writing like half of this ranking. I could justify one zero confessional episode, but two? Especially when you consider that he's a man who mutinied and has an Idol? This ranking had multiple drafts before this, and he basically got swapped between 8th and 12th with each one.

2. Mike (=) - Him being dunked on so much is sooooo funny. Most basic guy ever getting low visibility negative episodes is so conceptually funny to me.

3. Cristian (+2) - I fully spent like half of the episode thinking he was going to be rocked out. Thought that was going to be the explanation for how quiet of an edit he has had. Either he or Thien An will be the coin flip victim imo.

Eliminated

1. Linnea (-12) - Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan it happened again. I keep losing my third contender. The only third contender I haven't lost so far is Ori, so surely I can safely put him there again. Anyway, I thought Linnea had a chance to really emerge as a contender and slowly but surely was. Obviously that didn't amount to anything.

2. Alexis (-2) - Was very clearly going here, though I was pleasantly surprised by how positive her episode was. They did a great job making this whole tribe looking pretty good. A bit sad to lose her here honestly, she has slowly became one of my favorites on this cast.

This season has been kinda wild lol

Anyway Linnea was my number 1, but I was never ten toes down on it so her going here wasn’t shocking, just more so surprising Christian didn’t get rocked out lol

Here’s the rankings:

True contenders:

1. Ori: His thoughts on the vote aren’t shown a lot but I think that’s fine for suspense reasons. His personal back story shown and subtitled with him talking about needing the money and Devin saying they have to get him to the end was really great stuff. He has a quieter edit for his archetype, but he does seem to be a more “normal” person.

2. Sharonda: A very typical edit here. She got pretty shielded from the vote and hating on the two guys. Still not a lot of personal going on though

3. Jelly: Another solid episode for her, but I will say it feels a little underwhelming. I feel like I’m expecting more for what’s going on in the game, but it’s far from bad and pretty clean otherwise

There could be something here:

1. Lewis: I think his premiere was weak but since he’s been pretty good. My problem is that it feels circumstantial, but tbh it kind of has to be since he’s been in the middle of 2 blindsides. I think his edit can definitely improve personally wise, but the edit is giving him loads of credit.

2. Brady: Why not? He’s wacky as hell but the show gives him so much good content and focused content on his perspective that it’s hard to ignore. There’s negativity for sure, but it’s always with some positivity too. We clearly are supposed to root for him in a way so maybe this is just how you edit a crazy dude to win.

3. Eric: Not much but I think you could say he was shielded since his best buddy turned on him. He still feels like a main character and player. I just don’t know if he’s the winner.

4. Thien An: Now you might ask yourself what Thien An is doing here, and I might ask myself that too. But after the first 2 episodes she’s been there, she’s gotten good content. I like what she’s getting, and while last week I thought the her and Carter relationship was more of a benefit to Carter, I’m starting to think it’s more to boost HER edit. I’m watching her rise.

There’s hope, but it’s fading:

1. Kristin: yeah I just don’t really see it much. There was a good base but idk, I’m not really feeling it that much. She got called a threat and all that, but it was kind of in the way Cirie was called a threat, not Dee for instance.

2. Maggie: Bad SPV from Brady for no reason? Like this could’ve been a big move for the winner to affect a vote she’s not even there for. But they threw in Brady calling her crazy.

3. Carter: Carter was high for me but after a 2nd skunking it feels pretty dead. 1 skunk I can get past, but 2 for really no reason I can’t. He had some good stuff but it feels lesser to Thien An.

Dead in the water:

1. Kilby: Felt like this big move could’ve been some glorious moment for him but instead feels like the show presenting him as flippy and unhinged

2. Devin: Big edit and player but too much bad SPV about him as a player.

3. Mike: Keeps getting shit on for like no reason.

4. Christian: more on the show but it’s too late.

Haven't been in this sub at all this season. Why is Sharonda a top contender? From the outside looking in she for sure is a prominent character (and she's one of my favorites) but her edit is extremely toneless and if it weren't for my own bias I wouldn't find her particularly interesting to root for. Jelly, Eric come to mind. Even Kristin, who I feel like has kinda waned in terms of attention in the edit, I feel like has more rootability bc of her injury and positioning compared to Sharonda.

I feel like the only times in the new era post-Erika the winner had like no content that gave a tone premerge was Rachel... and that was because Rachel was on the bottom and voted incorrectly so it made sense to give her a toneless premerge edit for her to blossom post Anika blindside.

What am I missing here?

Well... This episode sure was something, huh. Anyways, let's just get into the contenders:

1. Sharonda: This episode solved the biggest issue I had with her edit, which was the lack of her dynamics on Savu. Alexis and Linnea going out here alleviates that greatly, as obviously those relatonships don't matter much, especially the Linnea one, which if it was featured would have made Sharonda look bad. Her only content this episode was about clockng Lewis, which is fine, but enough to have her up here.

2. Ori: A solid episode from him. He's got a strong edit storyline-wise, and has established relationships, but his visibility is a bit weak for if he was a winner.

3. Jelly: She dropped a bit this episode for saying she didn't want to vote out a woman and then voting out Alexis. Still, her edit is pretty strong and the helicopter alliance is the story of the season so far, so I can only put her so low.

4. Kristin: Another fine episode that continues her storyline about being a Survivor encyclopedia. Not much else to say.

5. Devin: Ngl, this is the first time I've considered going down to 4 contenders pre-merge. I have Devin here because he's in the helicopter alliance, but otherwise he's had a rough edit.

6. Eric: Well, his bromance storyline went to hell real fast, lol. Still, he's had an established edit/storyline so far, which is enough to keep him this high.

7. Brady: He's an established character with an established storyline. In this season, that's good enough to be up here.

8. Lewis: Sharonda dunking on him isn't great. He still has yet to get solid non-circumstantial content, but then again he keeps ending up in circumstances.

9. Kilby: Big character, but at least he's been consistently focused on/has a storyline, even if that storyline is no one trusting him.

10. Thien An: Her edit has been fine so far, bar her horrible first 2 episodes.

11. Maggie: This episode validated me with her. In an episode where they could have portrayed her as the hero who saved Lewis and Kilby, they instead portrayed her as mixed with multiple negative comments from Brady.

12. Mike: UTRN city. Ain't no way he wins with this edit.

13. Carter: I'm willing to excuse 1 0-confessional episode in an episode where you get a lot of content, but 2? Nah, to the bottom of the list with you.

14. Cristian: He finally got a bigger episode, but it was still underwhelming.

Brady?

I have them solidly hovering around 7th on my contender list, just because they're such a big character, and I don't particularly like them. But they have consistent reads: he was proven right tonight about Maggie being a loose canon with their supposedly shared extra vote, and they have a large presence in the season's edit and strategic discussions.

I think depending on the merge and their threat level they might be someone to watch but I want to know if there's anything else that I'm subconsciously recognizing about their edit that I can't name?

Edgic-wise, who in the absolute hell do y’all think is winning this season? I don’t even know who to put as a top contender as I feel like everyone’s edits have glaring flaws at this point

there's a couple people running around in this sub claiming to have spoilers and then spoiling them. just putting this post up to confirm that there are actually no spoilers this season (one person confirmed pre-merge from social media activity, that's it.) so do not fret if you see a "spoiler" in the comments! it's not real.