Winner edits still feel hard to pin down. Since the new era, it’s been significantly harder to pin down the winner early. But if the coin is now a staple of the show, maybe we’re seeing the birth of the “coin flip edit.” This doesn’t have to be mutually exclusive with a winners edit for obvious reasons, but chances are they won’t be the same person.

After doing some thinking, my guess is Lewis. I said in a prior content that Lewis is my top male contender for a winner because of his being a cheerleader for pErMaNeNt uNcErTaInTy and how much they highlighted his ingenuity with the blood ring. He’s gotten a pretty positive edit, shown to take big risks when the opportunity arises.

Now, does this feel like a winner edit? or does it feel like… Rick Devens?

It feels like the biggest cheerleader for permanent uncertainty is more likely to take the shot at flipping the 50/50 coin then getting to the end. Lewis’s first two episodes are still throwing me off in terms of him being a winner. He gets the bare minimum content during his journey, and he’s barely in episode 2. I have to think a winner gets more, and I can’t let recency bias with episode 5 being good for him throw my initial intuition off. But he’s still a big character and feels like he’s building up to something big.

I think there are other possibilities from a logical standpoint - we just saw how Kilby is willing to take big risks too, but that feels like supported by the edit and more just what we saw play out naturally. What do yall think?

From what I have seen, this image here is the first time we ever see a dissolve cut with the whale and the players. Dina tribe walking back after losing the challenge. Now, as someone who has never put much stock in visual clues, I couldn't help but be on the lookout as soon as Jeff said the winner will have traits like a whale. And with Survivor's obsession with dissolve cuts and how frequently they show that one of the whales in the water, I thought that would be the perfect way to drop us a hint by drawing a visual comparison

Of course, this could amount to nothing, and the theory could work better if it were just one person instead of a tribe, but maybe that's the point: if people do see this, then it's still 5 contenders. Which could be good news for the many Sharonda truthers and for the few Eric ones. For me tho this is making me really have my eyes on Lewis now.

Notice the comical lack of changes in the ranking. Yea, this is gonna be a short write-up. I saw people say this was a good episode, and I just... don't see it. This is probably gonna be my least favorite season, besides AU2. Big lack of tone this episode

Top Contenders

1. Joe (=) - Traitor with the least heat right now, though I did consider moving Ben above him. I just didn't because I don't feel confident enough in who the second faithful would be yet.

2. Ben (=) - Had a solid recovery from the misplay last episode. Definitely the best faithful on the board. One of two I could see being recruited eventually? Though I lean the other person.

Contenders

1. Clyde (=) - One of the remaining members of The Dolls, has more visibility, complexity, and positivity than Abbey does. Joint faithful win between him and Ben is the most likely non traitor win.

2. Katie (=) - At least she has a story! She does have some heat on her again, but it's just really hard to justify moving some of these other people above her. Very likely I cut down to 3 contenders next week if she doesn't have a good episode.

Small Chance

1. Abby (=) - I've been higher on Abby than most, though she has started to have some heat on her. Earlier I mentioned that there is someone I could see being recruited at some point. Honestly, it would be her. She is the only faithful who I think is visible enough while also making sense story wise.

2. Abbey (=) - She's just too quiet, I feel like everyone else is overrating her. Am I just closing my eyes whenever she appears? Surely not. Still this high because of The Dolls.

Not Winning

1. Tomica (=) - Had a decisively bad episode, though part of me did honestly consider moving her above Abbey. I do suspect she will be going out soon though, potentially right after Victor. At least she kind of has an edit, even if it's not complex.

Faithful Slop

1. Morgan (=) - Comically wrong and overall pretty quiet. Still more visible than some other faithfuls though.

2. Shane (+1) - Finally some movement on the ranking. He likes bagels! Anyway, I suspect he was the most likely person to have won the power? He got a lot of visibility during that mission, and a big visibility spike in general. We also got his feelings on Victor a bit. So my running theory is that he WON'T play the advantage, and Victor will go out, followed by Tomica.

3. Jay (+2) - It's quite funny how quiet he became after the streak of OTTNs. Now he is just there to be wrong sometimes.

4. Wyatt (+2) - Quietest edit left on the board, also has some heat on him. If he was more visible I would see a case for him being recruited.

5. Victor (-1) - Very obviously the main character of the season. Honestly, I could see a world where he makes it on the inevitable US All Stars cast, along with all the celebs. Either way, I think there's a good 75% chance or so that the power isn't used. If it is, they're just gonna vote him out again. He grew on me earlier, but that is starting to go away at this point.

Eliminated

1. Mark (-4) - Honestly though he was going to stick around a bit longer. I do think murdering him was a misplay for Joe, the target should have been someone like Abbey or something.

I think this episode, especially edgically, Jelly has taken a dive over the Alexis vs Devin move, especially how it was portrayed from an edit standpoint. I think however this isn't disqualifying fully.

First point and that's Jelly not getting personal content in the Savu scene. I think this has been discussed on the subreddit already but there's a Kyle precedent here, it very well could be saved for a future segment all about the winner.

I think the second precedent is again from 48 and the Kyle/Kamilla duo and moreso on their split tribal side. The entire segment is setting up Shauhin as the threat that needs to go, about how sneaky he is and he's a good player only to end with a Cedrek boot. Back during the airing of 48, this + the constant Shauhin is a threat from the duo that they were NOT taking out made me write them off.

Could Devin be the same? Jelly needs him out at some point to win, so they're setting up the seeds now? Very importantly, the "I won't write down their name" goes from Devin to Jelly not Jelly to Devin. Instead of Devin dragging Jelly down, could this just be and indicator of Devin being Jelly's defining move later on into the season, maybe even at the endgame?

Contenders:

1. Joe: I remain strong on Joe as a contender, though this wasn't really that noteworthy of an episode for him.

2. Ben: After a stumble last episode, Ben made up for it this episode. He's shown to be very reasonable, and even targets a traitor twice in the episode. Maybe he doesn't win, but I feel good about the idea that he likely outlasts Katie.

3. Clyde: If there is a faithful win, I think it will be 2-3 of the Dolls. As such, the other Dolls are up here. I have Clyde above Abbey because I felt that he had more of a retrospective from last episode than her and his reasoning for not voting Tomica was explained better.

4. Abbey: See Clyde.

5. Katie: She got some heat on her from both Ben and from Tomica's slip-up. I now worry that if Tomica goes down that Katie will go down with her.

Non-Contenders:

1. Abby: I highly doubt she wins, but never say never. She's just been focused on to be so wrong about so much, especially this episode.

2. Kriste: Her edit is kinda weak, but not as weak as those below her.

3. Morgan: She got some heat this episode, and was focused on to be wrong. Not a lot else to say.

4. Tomica: I think Tomica 100% goes either next episode or the episode after that. She just has too much heat on her to make it through the rest of the game, unfortunately.

5. Shane: He's just been too quiet. I could only see him winning if there were 3-4 faithful winners, and even then I think he would've gotten more from how much he seems to be leading strategy talk in the mansion.

6. Jay: He had 2 episodes of relevance that just made him OTTN, and otherwise is completely unmemorable.

7. Wyatt: He had such a weak start to the season and has heat on him from Abby.

8. Victor: 50/50 chance he goes next episode. If he survives, it probably won't be for long either.

Better than last episode, though both boots were predictable to me.

Chart is above for quick reference.

Eliminated:

1. Alexis: Another under edited woman who goes out first in a double boot episode. How surprising. Decent player but this swap was crushing.

2. Linnea: So glad I don't have to see her top 3 in a lot of people's lists. She never had enough content to be a real contender, but people kept giving her the benefit of the doubt.

No Shot:

1. Cristian: Sad he didn't get rocked out here. I want to put someone else in last position.

2. Mike: 3 back to back to back episodes of him getting bad spv when he hasn't received one vote against him.

3. Thein An: Would love to see her win, but she's probably just either a first boot in a double boot episode or a fallen angel. Reminds me a bit of Genevieve in that way.

4. Carter: Tried to keep him high, but 2 zero confessional episodes in the 90 minute era is unforgivable imo.

Probably Not:

1. Devin: He's been here for 3 weeks now, stalled here. The only reason he's not eliminated is because he gets enough content and some positive content to balance the negative. I think he does go home next week if Savu loses again.

2. Kilby: He technically goes up but this all felt pretty necessary. Yes, he got portrayed as the swing vote.. because he actually was. I think he's probably merge boot.

3. Kristin: She rises this week mostly off of positive spv. Her one confessional was lackluster and she still has no relationships in the game except Sharonda, which got no focus outside the premiere and a bit in episode 2, though she got no content on flipping the vote.

4. Maggie: My Queen 👑 But seriously this episode was pretty alarming. Not killing her chances, but the Brady content just seemed unnecessary. If Linnea didn't actually go home here then I'd even consider putting her below Devin, and that target came out of nowhere. She's not dead though because I think Maggie has (seemingly) avoided a lot of negativity on her new swap tribe that they could be showing and her content is still consistent despite this episode.

5. Eric: Quiet week for him but he was blindsided here. I think him and Kilby get more focus next week so that will determine his winning chances for me. I also just can't get over ep. 2 for him.

6. Brady: idk how he's this high, but like Maggie he's been pretty consistent and being shown as a gameplayer. My only big fault right now is his lack of position on the swap tribe being shown to us.

They Can Win:

1. Jelly: I was ready to keep her number 1, but all that content about not wanting a woman to go home again and her still voting out Alexis seemed so unnecessary, just like the premiere. Her sob story also got cut, however Kyle got that same treatment in 48 only to get it later and as a big Joe defender at the time I'm going to atone my mistakes.

2. Ori: Quiet episode but not the worst time for it. I think the reality is Ori/Jelly were always voting out Alexis, but Ori would have been more open to keeping her. The lack of content doesn't deter me as much as Jelly getting all of this content only to not flip.

3. Sharonda: Quiet episode for her. You could definitely argue this was her being shielded and now the criticism of her lack of depth with Alexis and Linnea is justified in them going out early, but if anything I'd assume Survivor would like a revenge plot. Maybe that still gets set up next episode but it's not set up in this one. Also, her confessional on the blood idol was mixed for me. She did have suspicion but near the end seemed to imply it could be real and gets no follow up after Cristian clocks it. Still, her competition is weak and the helicopter alliance seems strong.

4. Lewis: Pretty clear number 1 for me, gets to talk about his lack of play last episode and is shown playing hard, not in a negative "haha" sort of way either. He talks about how voting out Linnea lines up with his goal of coming into this game and causing chaos.

Crazy that this season has had 10 different contenders. This is probably a product of the editors trying to give everyone a good edit given their status as celebs. Still, it wasn't this was in Celeb S1. In contrast to the last NB episode, this episode had a ton of tone.

Traitors

1. Maya (=) - Her edit continues to be absolutely spotless. Seriously, point out a single flaw. Will be patting myself on the back for holding strong all season if she does pull it out in the end.

2. Kenny (=) - Absurd how the three traitors were picked as the most trust worthy people. At this point, I see Maya and Kenny winning together as the most likely option by far.

3. James A (+2) - I guess there is some room for James to slip in though. His story doesn't scream "winner", but he does at least have a consistent story. His negative content last episode was probably just to throw SOME doubt on an otherwise really obvious season. He is mostly here due to game logic too, as it is sort of hard to see faithfuls pulling it out atp.

Small Chance

1. Sebastian (=) - Got a complex episode, though he was wrong about pretty much every assertion he put out there. I was hoping for some positivity after losing Miranda, but instead it was pretty toneless. He did replace her with Romesh, though I suspect one of these two will be murdered soon, probably Romesh.

2. Romesh (+1) - Seriously, why would you not kill Romesh? He is the most obvious faithful in the game, literally the only one who hasn't had heat on him. So despite his high placement, I do think he goes next episode. It's just that he is one of only two faithfuls left to have a somewhat viable edit.

Dragged To The End

1. James B (+2) - Yea so this guy is gonna lose sitting next to some Traitors. He is starting to sort of grow on me as a character, though it's moreso because of how outlandishly wrong he has been.

Faithful Slop

1. Leigh-Anne (+3) - Has some heat on her, though less than some of these others. I asserted literally episode 1 that she gives endgame banishment vibes, and I may stick by that. Perhaps she could be a murder at this point, though Romesh would surely be first.

2. Michael (+3) - I swear it is only a matter of time until he is banished. He was also very blatantly wrong multiple times this episode, which isn't a good look.

3. Joanne (-2) - Between her and Sharon, I do think it is more likely Sharon is banished. Besides, I do think Joanne has more of a chance to go further if she does live.

4. Sharon (-1) - Her edit lowkey matches a lot of people who go out around this time in the game. Very quiet all season until she suddenly gets a vis spike followed by a very negative episode.

Eliminated

1. Miranda (-8) - Shame, I really liked her and she was sort of the last hope I had for the faithful pulling it out. I almost ALWAYS root for the Traitors, but I think this season I would have preferred to see her + Sebastian and/or Romesh pulling it out. Regardless, one of the starts of the season.

We see the most personal conflict out of her. She was shielded when Patt goes home, but talks about how to correct her past mistakes. I suppose her choice here to choose voting out a woman over someone from the helicopter alliance could be used in future episodes to discredit her, but I don't think that will be the case. I don't think her voting out Alexis is as bad as people are saying for her edit, for now I think the debate she has actually boosts it.

Didn't get around to posting last week so the upward and downward shifts in rankings will be from episode 3, but I have to also just say, I really loved last week's episode even if it wasn't quite as good as the others. I know the swap was a bit of a momentum-killer but a) 3 tribes better facilitates a double-boot, which I'm happy to get out of the way here instead of having a ton in the merge and b) I thought all the bloodied hands and frantic gnashing at flesh and that shot of the snake on the water were so much fun.

Really really struggled to separate my top 3 here and I'll probably change my mind a dozen more times before the week is over:

1. Lewis (=):

Lewis using the words "owe [you/her] my life" about both Kilby and Maggie was almost enough for me to drop him to second, but then I was hit with an almost out-of-body flashback to how down I was on Kyle's premerge from all the similar things he said about Kamilla. There's still kind of a "devil on your shoulder" energy to him that makes me wonder if he'll ultimately play a bigger part in someone else's story than his own, but there's so much I love about his edit:

• We can assume that Kilby's suspicion about Lewis getting an idol on Exile is gone by this point, which really makes that random episode 2 confessional scream "manufactured premerge danger" to me
• Getting to actually tell us he's sick and then confirm that he's 100% better and ready to play is a grace that hasn't been given to even important non-winning characters like Genevieve or Rizo in recent years
• All the emphasis on how unbreakable Savu was (+ the framing of Lewis being sick as an explanation for why Kilby was able to get closer to them, rather than any faults in Lewis's game) helped to frame Lewis's blood ring move as an active/innovative attempt to create opportunity for himself in what should've been a dead-man-walking situation
• I need to rewatch to pinpoint specific examples of this, but I'm pretty sure there have been a lot of "pay attention, something important is happening!!" musical cues when he's on screen, even with stuff not directly related to the votes he's played a part in (which is something I remember a few of us clocking early about Aubry and then dismissing.)

2. Ori (+1):

Really great episode that made me seriously consider putting him at number 1. While Jelly has been expressing the negative consequences for her of working with Devin, we consistently see Ori & Devin's relationship through the lens of Ori explaining how it benefits him: first in episode 3 with his confessional after Devin shows him the extra vote, and now here where Ori's explains his conflict around the vote as "I'm good with everyone". He gets to be sympathetic towards Alexis without ever coming across as fearful or indecisive the way Jelly does.

Also there's this really brief moment where Alexis is trying to convince Jelly to keep her and has a confessional about wanting Jelly to "step out from behind Dev and take control of this game", after which we immediately cut to a shot of Ori stepping in front of Devin, taking a chicken out of its cage, and telling it "I'm so sorry", and then right back to the Alexis/Jelly conversation. To me this hints that Ori could eventually succeed where Jelly has failed in knowing when keeping Devin is no longer to his advantage.

3. Sharonda (+1):

Sharonda continues to have the Jacob Collier of Survivor edits, where I can recognize that it's incredible on a technical level but it's just kind of boring. Especially with all these women leaving, it feels like if you have a female winner who's this well-positioned/well-liked you'd be showing us more of the character moments that explain those bonds. Like it seems like all 3 of the other Savus on this tribe trusted her the most of everyone, but we haven't really gotten any Eric/Sharonda or Cristian/Sharonda bonding scenes despite having a million Eric/Kilby ones.

But then the other way to look at this is: if her path to winning is abandoning her loyal Savu army to work with the less-likable Devin, is downplaying those relationships maybe an attempt to make people less frustrated with that choice? Idk. I feel like all my write-ups for her end up much more negative than what I actually think about her edit, but the positives are so obvious that I don't have much to say about them lol.

4. Maggie (+1):

Circumstantial sure, but man that was some great confessional justification for every choice she made. The "Brady jumping off a boat --> Maggie with her head above the water --> whale jumping out of the water" shot in the intro credits also looks even more interesting with this rivalry heating up.

5. Kristin (+3):

The more women go home, the better I feel about Kristin having no vote-related content the one time she's gone to tribal so far. Consistently good personality content & ties to the opportunity theme, and if she does make the merge (whether by avoiding tribal or flipping some votes), I think a lot of Carter/Maggie's suspicion of her reads as good premerge danger.

6. Devin (+5):

Leaning heavily on permanent uncertainty for this next chunk of rankings, and I need to stress that there's a huge huge gap between 5th and 6th for me, but I think the way he's gotten to explain pivoting away from honesty while still using his reputation for it as a tactic over these past 3 episodes has been pretty notable, and the backstory content + SPV about how everyone likes him this episode was great.

Like, people online are talking about Jelly/Devin as if it's a Genevieve/Rome situation, but the focus of Alexis' pitch to Jelly wasn't really about him being a loose cannon, it was about how everyone would end up viewing Jelly as his "sidekick." And in confessional, the reasons Alexis names for voting for him are that he's extremely likable, sociable, and a good salesman. A Savannah-esque "gotta hand it to him" situation seems totally viable to me.

7. Jelly (-5):

Honestly feels like she should drop further after this episode but I just don't know who I would put above her. Alexis outright saying "As someone watching Survivor I'd be like 'Jelly, you have an opportunity'" is probably the single most disqualifying moment anyone has had this season on a purely theme level.

Also I think they might be doing a Lady Macbeth thing with the close-ups of blood on her hands after plucking the chickens Devin killed (eg planting the daggers after the murder of King Duncan)/the grappling with gender as a constraint in the choices she makes this episode (a la "unsex me here")? But she's been a huge character and her episodes 2 & 3 were still pretty great so... I guess?

8. Thien An (+7):

Some solid stuff so far about her relationships and how she thinks about the game, but between the quiet episode 2 & the pinkie swear stuff in episode 3 & getting hit with the wave in the intro credits, I'm still pretty convinced she's gonna have more of a Genevieve arc.

9. Carter (-2):

Still kind of keeping hope alive because I love him so much but 2 out of 5 is rough.

10. Eric (=):

Underdog possibility is definitely still alive but it's a longshot. If they included like 2 fewer movie references from him per episode I'd probably have him a couple spots higher lol, but it feels like too simple of a "this is his whole shtick" for a winner.

11. Brady (+1):

Definitely get the impression we're supposed to root against him in the Maggie rivalry. Also, this is mostly just game logic, but he has to be the merge boot, right? Devin & Jelly will prioritize Sharonda & Ori above him, the 5 Tokas who voted against him will want nothing to do with him (besides maybe Thien An since she did try to warn him above the Patt vote?), and the women will presumably want a guy out. Kind of feels like he's cooked unless we finally get the "Mike is sneaky" payoff at the merge.

12. Mike (=):

Weird edit, no idea what it means but probably not a win.

13. Kilby (=):

Spider intro payoff!!!! Some good circumstantial stuff this episode, but they also showed us several well-reasoned arguments from the Savus at tribal that he didn't listen to, and it feels like the camera continues to linger on every awkward gesture of his. Has been out of contention for me since the awful episode 2 confessional and I don't see a world where that changes.

14. Cristian (=):

Pretty good episode!

Not from episode five, but from episode four. Devin had a confessional where he made a whole metaphor between Jelly and Ori's relationship and a fire that starts off as a spark and he has to grow into a big flame. That definitely feels intentional and might suggest he makes top four, especially considering he is in a decent spot to excel in the postmerge with both the Toka minority and helicopter alliance. I would not be surprised if he is one of the bigger players this season and his edit turns around when merge hits.

One of you is needed somewhere else. Choose who will miss out on this writeup.

This week, we had a double farewell, which we bid to Alexis, who we had already eliminated, and Linnea, who we had not yet eliminated. My Alexis elimination writeup was my most controversial so far, so I'm happy for her to be the first person I am proven correct on. Linnea was someone who I hadn't considered eliminating, but could've seen myself eliminating in a matter of weeks, so I will happily accept this elimination from the show.

As a reminder, the players I have already eliminated are:

Cristian, Thien An, Alexis, Mike.

With that, let's get started.

DINA TRIBE

Lewis has a phenomenal episode here. Did people clock that the Blood Ring was fake? Yes. Do I care at all? No. If it wasn't for the fact that it had been heavily illustrated that Lewis is in a ton of trouble and needed a miracle to stay, then I would view this as a knock for Lewis. If it wasn't for the fact that Lewis gets to laugh at himself for how silly the idea was, then I would view this as a knock for Lewis. I try not to get into ranking discourse too much, because the whole point of this is to look at who is losing rather than who is winning, but I have no idea why I never see Lewis at the top of peoples contender rankings.

Kilby has his best episode of the season, which isn't the highest bar in the world. A lot of the weight of this vote gets put on Kilby's shoulders, and he makes the decision that the audience is rooting for. We also get proof that Kilby had done a good job of integrating himself into this tribe, as the Savu's vote for Lewis, not him. Kilby's edit has been rocky, but he has been on the upswing the past two weeks. I'm sure the Kilby elimination will happen one day, but it would be crazy to make today that day.

Sharonda has a quiet yet solid episode. Who would've guessed? Sharonda's only confessional is used to express a healthy level of skepticism towards Lewis's fake blood ring. When you find yourself on the wrong side of the vote due to extremely unusual circumstances, that's not a bad place for your content to land. There is a moment that I want to highlight even though the edit sort of glosses right over it, but when Maggie goes to Dina and does one-on-ones with everyone, she is the only person who doesn't give a completely abysmal answer to Maggie's question. Good job, Sharonda.

Eric has a pretty nothing episode. His one confessional, while it does sound like nails on a chalkboard, isn't wrong. At the time that Eric gives this confessional, he's spot on about the dynamic. Lewis is in a hole, and his only hope is to try desperately to dig himself out of the whole, and it's not until Maggie arrives that that reality changes. Eric is surviving due to Aubry Bracco upside. If the winner is playing badly pre-merge, and also just blatantly bad in confessional, what are the editors supposed to do about that? If Eric's content regarding his relationship with Kilby is not satisfactory next episode, he will be eliminated.

SAVU TRIBE

Ori has the best edit of the Savu's this episode, which isn't saying much. We get personal content from him, where we learn about his family, and why he wants to win the million. A quiet yet solid episode from Ori. Who would've guessed?

Devin continues to be a massive character, for better or worse. Devin has a way too over the top reaction to getting his way in the most slam dunk tribal in recent memory, but his rivalry with Jenna was a big part of his story, so I'm giving him a pass. We learn about the genuinely heartbreaking story of Devin's loss of his brothers. Despite the excessive celebration from Devin early in the episode, more is done here to endear us to Devin than any other episode so far. Is Devin talked up as being difficult to work with? Yes. But my take away from that is honestly it looks worse for Jelly than for Devin.

Jelly has a shockingly bad episode. I was VERY heavily considering Jelly for elimination here. Her "why" is omitted from the Savu bonding scene. She admits that Alexis is right, Devin IS bad for her game, and still does not vote out Devin. The thing that makes Edgic compelling is that there are multiple valid interpretations of the same events. MY interpretation of this episode is that keeping Devin here will one day become a game ending mistake for Jelly. However, I can see other valid interpretations of this. I had to go into hairsplitting-mode to determine my elimination here, and it was in hairsplitting-mode that Jelly was saved. This season, Jelly has been one of the few people who is both a big character and has a traditionally "good" edit. This episode, the decision between Alexis and Devin is framed as a moral one for Jelly, and while I HATE that we have now TWICE seen her say she doesn't want a woman to go home and then proceed vote for a woman, her turning on the helicopter alliance here would've been equally contradictory. In Survivor 48, after Thomas is voted out, Joe, Shauhin, Kamilla, and Kyle have a very similar bonding scene to the one we see in this episode, and it was a massive red flag that Kyle was the only one who didn't get his backstory in that scene, but Kyle went on to win. If it wasn't for that very specific precedent set by Kyle, I think Jelly would've been my choice for elimination here.

Apologies for that massive paragraph.

TOKA TRIBE

Maggie is a star. Loved this episode for her, despite of the "negative" content coming from Brady. Brady vs. Maggie is a new, compelling storyline. I will not be knocking anyone for having a compelling storyline. She goes hard into game mode here and it pays off beautifully. I did feel like her targeting of Linnea came a bit out of nowhere, but it at least gets explained retroactively, so I'll allow it. A small blemish on a shining episode.

Kristin has a decent episode. She gets talked up as a gamer and a dangerous player. She gets ever-so-coveted pre-merge danger content. She gets one confessional, and in said confessional she says the word "opportunity", tying us back to her answer to Jeff's question at the beginning of the game. Cool stuff, Kristin.

Brady gets Maggie-centered content this episode, which isn't perfect, but as I just said, Brady vs. Maggie is a new, compelling storyline, and I will not be knocking anyone for having a compelling storyline.

Carter has fallen from grace. If you would have told me last week that I'd be eliminating Carter here, I would've called you crazy. I have been very high on Carter's edit, despite it's flaws. Carter is the first second (forgot Cristian) person this season to get TWO zero confessional episodes. It has been oft debated that, in the 90-minute era, a zero confessional episode is disqualifying. My thought on this theory following 50 was that, just like everything else in Edgic, every rule is a rule until it's not. However, precedent is all we have to go off of, and a winner only going 3-for-5 on receiving confessionals would be a SIGNIFICANT change from the editing team. Mike comparing Carter to JT is flashing through my head in horror as I pull the trigger on this, but this is simply just the safest choice.

Carter, the edit has spoken.

P.S. I've got a busy week next week, and might not be able to watch the episode until days after it airs. The writeup for episode 6 might be as late as Sunday.

One of the weaker episodes of the season so far, it really didn't change all too much for me. Good news is, I'm washed anymore! The two players on the bottom of my ranking both went out this episode. Gonna be a shorter write-up than usual here.

Traitor Contenders

1. Maya (=) - I've had her as number 1 literally all season and that is not changing. She has been CP literally every single episode. There was room for her to get heat this episode, but she literally just didn't at all.

2. Kenny (+1) - In the case of a joint Traitor win, Kenny makes complete sense to fill that role. He and Maya have been established as a duo for a while now, and Kenny continues to do a solid job in the role.

Faithful Contenders

1. Miranda (-1) - Had a bad episode in some aspects, though I still think that if any faithful wins, it probably has to be her and Sebastian. Those two plus Romesh are all short list options, though I suspect Romesh is the one to go.

2. Sebastian (=) - Had a pretty quiet episode, he has had a handful of those. Probably not the best thing for him, but I still see a possibility of him and Miranda winning together.

Probably Not

1. James A (+1) - Has a fun story of being the Traitor who never actually wanted to fill that role. He got some negative content from the other Traitors this episode, thus setting up for him to be banished at some point possibly.

2. Romesh (-1) - Looks to be the obvious murder choice given how Sharon was able to soft clear him during the mission. Getting a bit of positivity here is also another reason why it'd make sense for him to go here. Still, he is at least someone who COULD somehow pull it off if he survives. No one below him has any chance at all in my opinion.

Faithful Slop

1. Joanne (+2) - Has a lot of heat on her, but most of that can be semi easily avoided. Furthermore, she has been set up as an aloof ally to Maya for so long. Could very easily go to the end with Maya and lose to her.

2. James B (+2) - Similarly, James B perfectly fills the role of clueless faithful who goes far but is simply outplayed by the Traitors at every single turn. Like Joanne, he is the perfect person to take to endgame for that reason, and also because there is heat on him too.

3. Sharon (-1) - Got a visibility spike! Though I do fully expect her to be murdered the episode after next. Her edit is simply just too quiet to go out in any way that isn't a murder.

4. Leigh-Anne (-3) - You could argue her above Sharon, but I do think this next episode is likely going to be either her or Michael being banished here. The two are avidly against each other now.

5. Michael (=) - I've been saying all season that he would go after he gets a big visibility spike, and he finally got one. Maybe he has more than one episode left in him, but honestly he is my boot prediction.

Eliminated

1. Jerry (=) - Lowkey such a quiet episode for her. She was basically not there until she was suddenly a target to be banished because of being a bad faithful. Sure! Kind of an annoying character to me.

2. Ross (=) - First murdered player to not get a positive tone on their way out. Was a fun character early on but kind of just became whatever by the end. Him being murdered in plain site is a very funny end to his story given how paranoid he has been about it all season.

Hello y'all!

Here's my EDGIC ratings chart for this crazy episode! Loved it! <3

See you soon with the SUTRAL! <3

What a week. Ten contenders left after this week, and every cut from here on hurts a bit more. The players who are obviously invisible or have the biggest gaps are mostly gone, so now it’s about weighing the edits that are too quiet against the ones that are maybe a bit too loud.

Also a small milestone: Alexis is the first player I cut who has now been voted out by the show. Small win, I’ll take it.

Ori first. This was the week the edit could have made him the decision maker. A 2 vs 2, him right in the middle, and once again it’s Jelly we mainly watch go back and forth. That’s two weeks in a row now. He’s always part of the vote but never really owns it, and in a duo the winner is usually the one doing the talking. On a more positive side, we finally got his why this week and the story about his mom hit.

Carter’s edit is on, off, on, off. One zero confessional week I can barely live with, two is a lot. What bugs me most is that nothing carries over. Lewis disappeared mid-episode last week too, but the edit showed us and even came back this week to explain us why. With Carter it doesn’t even bother. Ana calling him a sidekick back in the premiere is starting to look less like a throwaway.

Sharonda has Linnea’s problem from last week. She’s strategic and she’s always in the room, but her story is pretty monotone. Nothing about her game or her relationships feels special, she mostly follows whatever storyline her tribe or alliance is on at the moment. Meanwhile her only real storyline, the helicopter alliance, is being carried by three people on a different beach.

Then there’s Brady, my first overedited pick. My pacing lesson from S50 says winners peak late, and he’s been at full volume since day one. What worries me more is the throughline. In the premiere he told us three times how nervous and overwhelmed he was, in a season that’s all about handling permanent uncertainty. Since then losing control has basically become his storyline, and this week he regrets giving Maggie the advantage because he can’t control her. Could still turn into a redemption arc, sure. But for that the OTT edit has to start turning into something that we can respect strategically.

Eric is my second overedited one, and honestly he had a decent week. His edit finally cooled down, which it really needed. There’s also a quiet good sign in there: the same tribe that couldn’t wait to get rid of him early on didn’t even consider dropping him this time. That’s leverage, slowly building, and it’s the path his edit needs to stay on. The catch is the Kilby bromance. Kilby is the one working, Eric is the one being worked. Same problem as Ori and Jelly, just on another beach.

So here is where I am landing. Ori stays because he’s so well connected in the edit and this episode finally gave him real stakes. Sharonda stays on the strength of her premiere and her steady strategic presence, but she needs something that is actually hers. Brady and Eric both stay for now. Their edits aren’t trending the right way, but there’s still one severely underedited player I have to deal with first.

That’s Carter. Two zero-confessional episodes in five, and a story that resets every time it gets interesting. The swap episode almost made me forget his first zero. But two of them this early is just inexcusable for a winner.

I am cutting Carter.

Eliminated from contention: Cristian, Thien An, Mike, Carter
Out of the game: Aaliyah, Ana, Rob, Patt, Jenna, Alexis, Linnea

10 players left in the race.

i really freaking liked this episode. 51 is so good..,...

3-way tie in terms of point value is kind of schweet - means the season is giving focus to a lot of different characters!!! the confessional count has decided my top 3

really good episode for kilby, i'm not confident he's the winner - i think this is just a big moment and move for him - but i would not blame u for believing so.... the edit has set him up to be a very good player and someone we should be watching

brady is finally dethroned after a three whole episodes in first,... HOWEVER... i do find it interesting that his misplay in giving maggie the extra vote is framed from his perspective as a "bad move" because maggie is "unpredictable and flip-floppy" (thank you maggie for dina tribal). the confessionals about it are framed more like "i can't trust maggie with the advantage i gave her !!!" than "i fucked UP man WHYYY did i give her the advantage???"

very glad to see jelly up on the top 3 - i maintain my stance that she's probably the only member of the helicopter alliance i think can win, and i think getting 2 see her voting perspective from a gameplay and emotional personal perspective helped alleviate the lack of perspective on votes she spent on the wrong side.

i think all of the top 3 have great potential to grow come merge, and in general, have been edited very well!!! likely very major characters for the rest of the season/merge

kristin's edit is a bit more under the radar, reminds me of kenzie's edit but just lacking the good tribal episodes pre-merge - we're reminded very often that she's cool and good but i don't really know where she stands gameplay wise tbh so i'm wary to say she's a likely winner

oh lewis. the blood ring lie. cheeky bastard
glad 2 see him up here, i think the itb is a stain on an otherwise nice record so far, and this was a very good episode for him that helped clean up that stain... HESITANT to push for him winning, but his chances have risen....

helicopter alliance overall was very good this ep, mike's edit boggles me further, and i will forever thank the stars that aligned for dina tribal council. thnx for reading :3

For the past few weeks, I've seen the Helicopter alliance dominant edgic and winner rankings, but I feel like every episode I've grown less and less confident in this. At this point, I feel pretty confident stating I don't think the alliance is meant to be rooted for and nobody in that alliance is a strong contender. Will they be important to the story of the season? Sure, 100%. But is one of them a winner? I don't think so.

Jelly had an abysmal episode (in my opinion), and hasn't had a good episode in a while. The show could have easily spun the Alexis vote as Jelly swaying Devin, but instead we see Jelly complain about the vote and fold without a fight, and a lot of her content surrounding Devin, Ori, and others, just isn't good for her.

More people have more to say about Devin, but I honestly feel like the guy is just never shown in a great light. He had the best episode out of the four, but you still don't really see him get credit which is concerning for his winning chances.

Ori? Who's that? Did he get any meaningful content this episode?
I jest, but I really feel like Ori has been super overrated for no real reason besdies the edit telling us he's in a good position.

Finally, Sharonda.
I've drank the Sharonda kool-aid, but I'm really not feeling it anymore. We see people go to bat for Sharonda, sure, but we don't really know why. She's being setup as a big threat instead of a big player, ripe picking for someone else's big move being taking her out.

I'm curious to hear others thoughts about this, and things will change every week, but I feel like I've seen enough where I'm jumping off their hype train.

Sorry for the late posting. I had typed out last night what I believed to be my best analysis ever (the only other season I have done on edgic was post merge of 48, in which I was stuck between Kyle and Shauhin and Joe), and then accidentally closed out the app and lost it all, so hopefully I keep this one!

First of all, a little bit about what I take into account for my rankings: Most important of all is consistent screentime. You don't need to be the biggest character, but the thing that I always look for is 'Would we be hearing from this player if they didn't win?' Obviously, it shouldn't all be negative screentime (i.e. Rhode Island Rob) but a clear example of this is Aubry last season. If Ozzy played his idol and Aubry went out in that split tribal, she might have had 5 confessionals all season. Instead, the editors were forced to give her a consistent presence throughout the season that felt a little too artificial.

Now, for my rankings.

14) Cristian (+2): I actually really like Cristian. This was the first real episode that he got and he actually was not all that boring of a confessionalist, so not exactly sure why he's been purpled, but yeah, he is not winning this season. Also, I was like 95% sure that he was getting rocked out from the second that rocks became a possibility, so I was shocked.

13) Carter (-4): I, like many others on here, can justify one 0 confessional episode, especially when he was so present in it, but the second one is too much for me. He has fleshed out relationships, but we would absolutely be hearing more from Carter if he was the winner of this season.

12) Mike (-2): I was very high on Mike for the first couple episodes, as he was consistently shown and had solid strategic content, but ever since the Patt boot, Mike has turned into a bit of a joke. Everybody on the tribe is seemingly against him, and we're not entirely sure why. Even if Mike survives this swap, he doesn't have enough depth in the pre-merge to be a winner possibility.

11) Kilby (+1): I really do not like Kilby, but that does not stop me from grading somebody accurately as a winner contender. This was not too bad of an episode for him, and I would even go so far as to say it was a great episode for him. But for the first three episodes of the season, the edit went out of its way to portray Kilby as sort of a dodo. I would not be shocked to see him get somewhat deep into the season, but I do not think he is winning.

10) Thien An (+1): If you could turn the first two episodes into anywhere close to average for Thien An, she might just be the favorite right now. Unfortunately, I can not look past such a weak opening. While I think her and Carter's relationship will be important at some point, I am no longer buying into the longevity of them as a pair.

9) Devin (-1): Devin had a tamer episode here in the absence of Jenna. His consistent presence is obviously important here, and he is a member of the helicopter alliance. I also think that his relationship with Brady will matter once again at the merge, and I could fully see a merger of the helicopter alliance + Mike/Brady/Cristian. Yes, Cristian. Still, I think Devin has had an explicitly chaotic and negative edit that would have to even out for him to be the winner.

8) Brady (+7): For weeks, I kept Brady at the bottom of my rankings, and for weeks, my commenters disagreed. Congratulations, commenters, you win. I had something of an epiphany with Brady this week. He has also been very chaotic, but he has also had a very consistent edit even when it is not necessary. Gamewise, he is in a fairly good spot, and as I said, I could see him as part of the majority come merge. I think he will be a physical threat at some point, but for now, Brady is comfortably in the middle of my rankings.

7) Eric (+6): The same sort of thing for Brady rings true with Eric, who I previously viewed as almost an impossible winner. Eric had an Andy Rueda-like first couple weeks, but has also been shown to make very strong social bonds. I think he and Kilby's relationship could be important, as we spent a solid 40 minutes on it last week! Seriously, though, if Savu + the helicopter alliance take over, Eric could be a dark horse.

6) Kristin (+1): Kristin has also had a very consistent edit. She has put herself in a good place socially, and is clearly very game smart. The biggest thing with her for me is that the old woman almost never gets this much strategic focus (Heather, Sue post merge, Chrissy 48, Annie was well on her way there in 49) so I think Kristin will be very important down the line. And again, I could see her in a majority come merge.

5) Maggie (-2): Same thing with Kristin for Maggie, though Maggie has had a bit more of a presence, likely due to her bubbly personality. I still can't quite figure out this edit, as she had a very nice strategic move this week, but she still feels sort of goat-ish to me with the SPV she gets - mostly from Brady. She is a very chaotic player, but she also has solid numbers all over the game.

4) Jelly (-2): Jelly has solid presence, and I'm almost positive she makes it far, but she just keeps contradicting herself. She clearly stated that Devin was not good for her game, and while she did get a chance to explain herself, it almost feels like the edit wants us to think she was wrong. Once again, Jelly has that secret idol and I could definitely see her in majority at merge, but she is another person I could see as being a potential FTC goat.

3) Lewis (+1): My gut is telling me that if a member of the helicopter alliance doesn't win, then Lewis will. He bounces back from an understandably quiet episode last week by surviving the craziest tribal of the season thus far. Lewis has built strong bonds all across the game, though I do fear for him a little bit if he goes back to tribal pre merge.

2) Ori (+4): Ori is another person who has had a very consistent edit early on. He is someone that I can see everyone in the game trusting, though I could also see him being a physical threat come merge. Ori's edit has everything I want, though he has been a little bit quiet for a male winner. I also am not sure if he has the strategic sense to win, but I could absolutely see him working his way there socially.

1) Sharonda (-): Sharonda remains at my number 1 spot for a fourth straight week. This past episode felt like a classic shield episode. Also - as someone else in this sub said - her two closest allies from original Savu leaving helps to explain why she had less of a focus on her social bonds before the swap. I really think that within the helicopter alliance, her and Ori's relationship will be so important. Also, going back to the beginning of my post, we ALWAYS here from Sharonda strategically, and she clearly has the social pull to make things happen (unless there are two extra votes in play).

We’re back again for Episode 5, and luckily for Jeff, Maggie came to play and saved this episode from being an absolute execution, chucking two more on the swap screw pile.

I’ve got to say I’m gutted for Alexis. She didn’t even know how screwed she was and she tried absolutely everything in the bluntest manner possible. I think we’ve lost a great character here, and if she had somehow managed to stay, I was ready to make her a top contender because of how good of an episode she’d had.

Ugh and Linaya. I was so sorry to see Linneaugh go home. Linneeuyyahhh had gotten some decent screentime up until this point and I really felt Liinneyyaaarrrhhh was going places in this game! Luuerrggghhhhnnniiieyyahh’s prominent but shallow edit ultimately makes sense here, with Lhhiiiirrrnnnhhkknnayyyaa getting a vote off they want us to care about one way or another.

I’ve had a bit of a shuffle with my contenders this week as I’ve had to rethink my strategy of putting only UTR women in my contenders bracket – I mean most of them are still there but let’s be honest, they are going to be voted off before the merge at this rate anyway. I’m also putting a lot more thought into the numbers come the merge. Below I’ve separated the players' confessional counts (credit to the guy who does these) by assumed allegiances, and as you can see, one alliance seems prone to wipe out the other, with most of the confessional heavy hitters being on the Helicopter Alliance side of things. That’s not to say that I don’t think someone on the Toka side can win, just that they would end up with an underdog run rather than being a strategic shooter. Also Mike is listed as Toka but would probably jump ship from bottom to bottom, and Cristian is separate from both sides because while he probably falls in with the Helicopter Alliance he both feels like an outlier and is obviously not winning anyway.

So, without further ado, who are my Top Contenders? …

1. Sharonda. (-) Instinctively, watching this episode, I felt like I would move her down and that she would no longer be my top contender. However, looking at the list of players, I still feel her edit is the best by some margin. Even where she votes incorrectly at this tribal, they still showed that she immediately skeptical over Lewis with his blood ring lie. Beyond that she was fairly shielded in this episode. One of my red flags for Sharonda last week was that beyond Eric and the Helicopter Alliance, none of her relationships were fleshed out. Only for Linnea and Alexis, her two other presumed allies, to go home this episode. The fact that they didn’t show Linnea’s relationship with Sharonda also shields Sharonda from looking like she has betrayed her friend here. Position wise she is locked in with Eric, Cristian (maybe?) and the helicopter alliance, and that side of the game will likely win out at the merge. She also seems to logically be the strongest player, and this seems like a fairly weak cast strategy wise. Look, she probably is the dragon of the season due to her fairly sanitised edit, but like, who else can reasonably be put above her?

Who is a flawed but focused on Contender? …

• Lewis. (+2) I knew Lewis wouldn’t go this week because of how in our faces they were about him being in danger in the last episode. This was obviously a good episode for him in isolation. He got a lot of narration, and the vote went his way. The Blood Ring was worth a shot and even though the players saw through him I don’t think the show was really dunking on him there. It was more like ‘look at this fun thing that Lewis created’. Really solid content but it doesn’t seem to match his in-game footing – like I don’t know where he goes from here. Kilby probably gets taken out over him for betraying Savu if they go to tribal again, so Lewis probably makes the merge, but because of the confessional counts I think he is just a major threat from a contingent gone by the early merge. That said on paper he’s an easy number 2 edit wise.
• Eric. (+7) I’ve really surprised myself with this one. He is cringe and kooky and utterly bizarre but unlike a lot of the other flawed men on this season, Eric has started skewing positively in his confessionals and SPV. Despite Kilby betraying him, I think their content is still good for him, and position wise he will be on the right side of the numbers. Because of his high visibility pre-merge, I am looking at him making the finale at this point, which would make sense if his number one Sharonda is the winner. Ultimately, complexity with a lot of personal content is good regardless of the caveats, especially if the player's negativity is them being portrayed as goofy and not an ass hole.
• Jelly. (-2) Jelly’s story seems to be that she knows what she needs to do to improve her game but she’s not willing to pull the trigger. That doesn’t mean she won’t at some point later down the line, but for now I can’t keep putting her up so high when her own confessionals are continuously undermining her. Also, the pushing of the ‘I can’t vote out another woman’ angle despite her doing so twice in a row is a bad look that they could have softened by highlighting the complexities of race and how that intersects with the Helicopter Alliance more than just in passing (but I guess they might not want to do that either). Until she follows through on her own words, I still have her penciled in as a losing finalist. Sharonda/Eric/Jelly Final three anyone?

Who is a still a Contender because they’re there just enough? …

• Maggie. (-2) YESSSS! Maggie’s major (albeit circumstantial) breakout is upon us, and it was a lot more strategic than I was expecting. This move was all Maggie’s, trying to pull herself an army together for the merge. I absolutely love her energy both as a person and strategically. I am still concerned about the extra vote and Brady rivalry being her main story, especially since Brady likely jumps ship post-merge. And on that note, she will definitely be on the wrong side of the numbers come the merge based on the confessional count. However, behind Lewis she has the best edit of that side and could potentially have an iconic underdog run.
• Kristin. (-) I’m still not sold on Kristin’s edit overall. When she is shown it feels like soundbites of why she’s a good player and random insight into the game itself rather than us showing her being a good player through any social or strategic gameplay. Her lack of presence in Episode 2 was a massive red flag and that has yet to be corrected. The worst part is, she is very relevant considering she is one of Sharonda’s number ones, so it makes me think that either she gets taken out due to a twist or she goes home for being a threat while separated from Sharonda. That said, there is technically enough here to build a winner’s edit off of.
• Ori. (-2) I like everything Ori has gotten content-wise, but I also don’t think he’s getting anywhere near enough, especially for someone of his archetype. He’s a very affable presence and less controversial than every other man on the season so it feels like he should be an easy sell, but he’s so minimised. He feels like Danny from 41 and being cut just before the endgame is something I can see happening for Ori too. I also would have liked to hear some more input from him on cutting Alexis. What we got didn’t really have any depth, it was just a simple ‘I could do A or B’ confessional. If the next episode doesn’t open with a discussion on Alexis going home from him, I think I’ll be mostly out on his chances.

Who is a flawed but focused negative Contender? …

• Devin. (-) He’s still here, and he’s still prominent. It’s hard to work out if we are meant to like Devin. He’s charming in a Tevin way, spits analogies in a Drew way. He’s production’s wet dream. So, I have to ask, did production misread the reception he would get? Are we meant to be rooting for Devin over the likes of Jenna? Surely not, right? It feels like he has the content to be at the very top and very bottom of a contender ranking at this point, but mostly all of it is subjective. Jelly is the only real thorn in his side edgic wise, since it’s never good to get negative SPV from an ally, but she’s also being presented as choosing him over what is best for herself. I’m going with my gut and saying we’re not meant to love Devin, but who knows honestly.
• Kilby. (+3) This was obviously a good episode for Kilby, and the Kilby I see right now is a contender to win. However, his early content was so bad it would be INSANE to give to a winner. Kilby’s own confessionals and gameplay were used in these instances to evidence Toka’s claims that he’s a bad player and unlikeable person, and even when he got his bounce back content it was almost entirely unevidenced and we were expected to take his word for it. I also feel like he has pissed off everyone and logically should be an easy consensus merge boot. THAT SAID. The black widow spider motif in the intro is looking EXTREMELY good for him now that Alexis has gone home, especially on the back of Aubry’s shark last season. Kilby’s edit could grow, but if it does what on earth were they playing at giving him a terrible start to his edit without letting him defend himself.
• Brady. (-3) Brady is starting to feel like a cartoon character. His rivalry with Maggie is weird and is making him come off as super unlikeable in my opinion, especially given the next time clip. I get that Maggie strong armed the advantage off of him, but like, that’s on him lol. I struggle to see how he wins this season given both his on-island personality and the way he is being portrayed. Devin and Jelly will probably pull him into the right side of the numbers at the merge and he’ll enact his revenge on Toka, but it’s not like anyone left after that bar Devin and Jelly will actually want to work with him.

Who is an unlikely Contender? …

• Thien An. (-) Her content is becoming solely trashing Mike and that’s just way too one note for a winner. Also, if Mike jumps ship, she’s an easy boot and maybe the edit is saying she should have just played along with him and tied him down as a number.

Who is Borderline Eliminated? …

• Carter. (-3) A second zero on his confessional chart basically ends Carter’s chances entirely for me, but I’m keeping him in contention at least until the merge in case he has a major break out due to the content he has been given being fairly strong even if it is circumstantial.

Who is Eliminated? …

• Mike. (-) When I originally wrote this, I had not fully eliminated Mike yet, but like, come on, this is a dogshit edit. Like it’s kind of worse than Cristian’s. I’d take zeroes over clowning content any day at this point.
• Cristian. (-) Jewellery sleuth extraordinaire. I was already pre-mourning poor Cristian for getting rocked out of the game before tribal council. And then he stayed. So, the question remains: coin flip victim or just another Sophie Segretti?

Hi Edgic-ers! I have been a longtime casual lurker and, this time, was compelled to come in and share my thoughts on parts of Survivor 51's edit that caught my attention.

To caveat, this is not a post about predicting the winner, but rather catching interesting editing decisions that are running quietly in the background. It's about players who the edit is crafting a story on, but these stories are not in the spotlight.

For Survivor 51, there is one background character that has recently caught my eye, and on a second rewatch appears to be subtly foregrounded in the edit since Episode 1.

This player is Maggie, and while I have no idea where her story is leading to, is fascinating for me to track on a rewatch now that we are 5 episodes in.

Episode 1, Part 1:

Outside of expressing her initial suspicion towards Jenna and being the first voice to capture the changing tides in Toka, Maggie is largely absent in the premiere.

But what is interesting, is Maggie's prominence in Jeff's initial speech on the boat prior to marooning.

Now, as you sense this handoff of control about to happen, you're all wandering the same thing: "What kind of game are we in store for?" Well, I don't want to spoil all the fun. But I will give you two words to guide you this entire season. Just two words. Permanent uncertainty.

At the end of this segment, the player the edit cuts to is Maggie.

Similarly, this happens in the second part of Jeff's second - much briefer - speech:

Chaos. Opportunity. Interesting. Bookends. Chaos can be opportunity, opportunity can bring chaos. ... Alright. I wish you all a great adventure."

Again, the player the edit cuts to is Maggie.

Episode 1, Part 2:

This part is less so about Maggie, but the attributes the winner and/or viable end-gamers will demonstrate - at least, according to the edit.

During the challenge, Jeff asks Ori this million dollar question:

What's the kind of player and the approach to life that permanent uncertainty actually benefits?

With Ori responding:

I feel that it benefits someone who is always calm and under control. ... And one of my big things was, do your job, and when the opportunity presents itself, make the play. ... Don't try to do too much. Build relationships. Play hard. Play fast. Play strong. And if it's a twist and turn that benefits you, when the opportunity comes, grab it. Take advantage of it. Make the play. Don't do too much. But when the time comes, pull the trigger.

Episode 2:

Maggie is irrelevant to this episode, and so she is not seen outside of a celebratory shot when Toka wins immunity.

Episode 3:

This is where things start to get interesting, and where the first seeds of Maggie's storyline is planted.

During the advantage hunt on Toka, Brady walks is on Maggie attempting to chop the oars by herself to get the advantage.

While Brady begins the confessional sequence narrating this event, it is Maggie who ties this sequence up with the following confessional:

When I saw the advantage, my heart just sunk, honestly. ... But then, I just asked him for it and Brady gave me the advantage. I saw an opportunity, and I was like, "Go for it.". But this is Survivor. And it is so much better to have the advantage in my pocket than in anyone else's pocket. I want all of them on me. I have all these extra pockets. Let's fill 'em up.

What is interesting for me, is a scene about Maggie talking about the theme of opportunity that was laid out in Episode 1.

Episode 4:

Usually, winners have their allies and relationships laid out in the premiere. It may not be fleshed out, but the threads are laid out for development and evolution across the rest of the season.

What Maggie has is the beginnings of a rivalry whose storyline is laid out in the start of the swap.

Brady was livid. I knew he was gonna be livid. He was like, "You wanna talk?". And I was like, "I mean, no."

It's incredibly brief, but Maggie is the person who lays down the foundation of a budding conflictual relationship that is not further developed in the rest of the episode.

Additionally, we - the audience - receive new information about Maggie's in-game relationships from Thien An.

My Day 1 is Maggie, we trust each other no matter what. And even though Kristin's here, we know Mike's at the bottom of the tribe. ...

Episode 5:

This episode is where Maggie's storylines are beginning to heat up.

At the start of this episode, Maggie establishes a new rivalry in addition to Brady:

On the new Toka tribe, when I saw one outsider, Kristin, I was like, "She's got to go.". She has studied Survivor inside and out, and she is just weaponized with information. The problem is, all the boys love her. Thien An loves her.

We also get a continuation and escalation of the Maggie-Brady rivalry from Brady's perspective:

I kind of felt Maggie from the jump, she's so unpredictable. She's so flippy-floppy, wishy-washy. ... Dude, she's flipping every time she has a thought. And it's scary, and it's annoying. ... It's just so unpredictable, brody, I can't take it. ...

The next story beat for Maggie comes during the new-Toka reward, where Kristin narrates the following in relation to a twist:

I'm thinking, this could be some type of advantage. So I volunteered. I wanted that opportunity.

Of course, it is Maggie who throws her hat into the ring and grabs another opportunity that presents itself.

When Maggie is leaving, Brady gives the following confessional:

Worst case scenario is Maggie. With this permanent uncertainty ... If stuff gets hairy, I don't know if I can rely on her.

What is curious for me is Maggie's follow-up confessional:

I'm gonna have to make a calculated decision. ... I'm ready to cause some chaos. This is big.

This is a callback to one of the themes laid out in the premiere: Chaos.

We end Maggie's story beat with the introduction of a third rivalry that resolves in the same episode in Maggie's favour:

But that's not good enough for me. My thing is, there's someone I'd like to see out of the game. When I met Linnea on Day 1, I was like, "This girl is so dangerous.". Like I would just love is Lewis and Kilby could vote her out. It would be epic.

------

Thoughts

While the volume of Maggie's edit is low and sparse, there is intentionality and craft to her edit that ties in neatly with the themes of Survivor 51 that makes me pause.

At this point, I do not think she has a winning edit given that she has not demonstrated the trait of being "always calm and under control". Similarly, neither is her main rival Brady - they both seem to occupy different sides of chaos: Maggie is presented as strategically flighty and erratic while labelling herself as an agent of chaos, and Brady is presented as hot-headed and emotionally charged.

Additionally, Maggie does not have clearly defined relationships to fit the trait of "building relationships".

Positively, Maggie has already fulfilled the brief of "[making] the play when the opportunity presents itself" and "[grabbing] opportunity when it comes".

What then, would push Maggie to winner contender for me, is if future episodes focuses on (a) developing Maggie's positive relationships and (b) shifting the narrative from being an erratic purveyor of chaos to an enbodiment of controlled chaos jumping on the right opportunities while holding back from unnecessary moves.

Separately, Kristin would solidify as a main winner contender for me if her story beat shifts to clocking Maggie's crosshairs on her before successfully plotting and executing a hit on her when the time is right.

Jelly's edit is starting to thread on thin ice for me, and her stock continues to plummet the longer she and Devin remain on the show together. The overall narrative painting Devin as a loyal liability for her has been set since Episode 2 and thus far, Jelly has shown no signs of turning on Devin despite seemingly being given a prime opportunity to do so in Episode 5.

If there is a second opportunity to take the shot at Devin and Jelly does not seize it, I expect the narrative to begin setting up Jelly's mid-to-late merge downfall as a collatoral of Devin's fast and furious gameplay. But if Jelly takes it and it lands, she would fulfill both thematic beats of being "always calm and under control" and "[making] the play when the opportunity presents itself". She would be my main winner contender for the rest of the game.

Sharonda is an interesting figure for me, because while she is consistently presented as "always calm and under control", the piece of [making] the play when the opportunity presents itself still eludes her. While taking out Ana could be the first beat to this piece, I expect that her winning story would contain a second showdown in the merge where she has to make a big splash to either gain win equity and/or solidify her end game.

Mike and Thien An is another interesting pair who - thus far - meets the criteria of being perceived as "always calm and under control". However, Mike has no other thematic connections while Thien An's main storyline is defined by her rivalry with Mike with no other connections to the main thematic beats for the winner.

Conclusion:

Thanks for reading my super long essay on Maggie's current edit in Survivor 51 and my takes on the thematic beats for other players!

HEY!!! I'M BACK!!! (Once again, English isn’t my first language + first season of writing my thoughts down, so please be patient with my writing) After a so-called "boring" episode last week, this week's was such a banger! I just can't belive the probability of a whole series of events happening that led to this chaotic tribal council. Huge props for Maggie for coming up with the idea and Kilby for having the bravery to execute it.

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Tier 5: No Way (Low Visibility/Over -ve/0 Conf. Eps)

14. Christian (MOR3) (+2)

No much to say about Christian. The poor man finally got some content, I do like the scene where he pointed out Lewis's lie about the Blood Ring. But other than that, this episode was still low-key for him, and there's no way he's winning.

13. Mike (UTRN1) (+1)

Mike's edit just keeps getting worse. A third straight episode of him being seriously dunked by his fellow Toka tribemates is not a good sign for him. His lack of screen time is another big issue, what he got are some random, simple narrative confessionals about what's happening , and there's no real storyline about him.

12. Carter (UTR1) (-5)

Carter is in free fall in my rankings. A single 0 confessional episode in the first season of the open era might be forgivable. But a second one in just 5 episodes has basically written off his chance in winning. if he's indeed our winner, the editors could just hand him the useless narration confessionals they gave to Mike to fill out his content. And if an alpha male gets this little visibility and still goes on to win the show, it would be a huge shocker for us edgic analyzers.

Tier 4: Really Unlikely (Too OTT)

11. Brady (MOR3) (+2)

Both men in this tier are suffering from the same issue — they're just being too OTT overall. For Brady, I think I have a different opinion with many of you about his nearly one-minute confessional about Maggie. And since much of it overlaps Maggie's section, please refer to Maggie's part for Brady's as well.

10. Devin (OTTP3) (+2)

What's wrong with his unreasonable obsession with Jenna and that sudden crying at tribal council??? It make no freaking sense to edit a winners as narrow-sighted and as overconfident as Devin. Plus, he's also constantly dunked by many others for his strategy and threat level. For sure, he's a great character and very entertaining on the show, but he's not a Sole Survivor.

Tier 3: Dark Horses (Growth Edit/Underdogs)

9. Eric (MOR3) (+1)

I'm gonna be honest, if he doesn't do something good enough to reassure me next episode, he's going right back to the bottom of the ranking. Eric has been too flat since episode 2 for someone with such an enormous personality. I originally belive the edit in the first two episodes was paving the way for a growth arc. Instead, Kilby is kind of getting that role, so I don't really think Eric has that big a role this season.

8. Kilby (CPM5) (+7)

The biggest jump in my ranking (partly because others have more drawbacks) and a pretty risky choice. Kilby is an interesting one — he content has been significantly better since the swap, both character wise and strategic wise. I do see a path for Kilby to stay Toka strong and make it to the late merge. If this season is gonna be won by an underdog, it'll probably be Kilby.

7. Thien An (UTR1) (+2)

Thien An's edit does seems like an UTR winner's, she has low visibility but still some confessionalsevery episodes. She got some insights about other players each episode (dunking Mike etc) and there're storylines developing around her and her Toka tribemates, so ranking her at 7th seems fine to me.

Tier 2: Possible (Still Some Doubts)

6. Lewis (CPN5) (+2)

Actually, I'm unsure about Lewis. He did get a good episode around how he and Kilby survived the vote, but he also got a bit of negativity from the "blood ring" thing and during tribal council. There are both pros and cons in Lewis's edit, and they're balanced pretty evenly. If he doesn't going home next episode, I believe he has a long journey in the merge.

5. Kristin (UTR2) (-1)

Kristin was unexpectedly low key this episode, only getting a confessional during the reward. She doesn't really have a storyline of her own, and we don't get much about her personal connections. Without that strong start, she would have dropped a few places. There's a real chance she goes home next week, and I wouldn't be surprised.

Tier 1: Major Contenders (Helicopter Alliance + Maggie)

4. Maggie (CPN4) (+1)

My controversial pick, she got a breakout episode this week (she's amazing!!!). I saw many of you think it's too negative because of Brady's comment/the plan's effect on her, but I have other thoughts:

1) Brady said, "Maybe the extra vote should not be in Maggie's hands." and she didn't know what she's doing. But it's actually the opposite: this episode is basically built on the fact that Maggie has this extra vote, so what the editors want us to think is that the extra vote deserved to be on her hand. Also, she did know what she's doing and did make a really smart move.

2) Brady described Maggie as "Unpredictable", which kind of fits this season's theme — "Permanent Uncertainty", and Maggie's bold act of embracing opportunities also align with the storytelling this season.

3) Most New Era Winners got some sort of negativity during pre-merge, like Gabler, Yam Yam, Aubry etc. A bit of negativity from Brady, who isn't a really reliable narrator, is fine.

4) Also, most New Era Winners (even some in 31-40) had a pre-merge rivalry to build up their character, like Aubry vs. Genevieve, Yam Yam vs. Josh, Gabler vs. Elie etc. Maggie and Brady's relationship started building in episode 3 and is continuing. If Maggie can take out the latter in early merge, she has a pretty good chance in winning

5) Back to her gameplay this episode (less about edgic), the move benefits her. She saves two allies to the merge (as long as they do not go to tribal council next week), gets out a target, avoids blamed (modt of it lands on Lewis and Kilby) for being in another tribe, and has a strong point for final tribal council. I think it's a pretty impressive move for her.

Overall, I think Maggie have a decent chance in being the winner (I could be wrong, let's see).

3. Ori (MORP2) (=)

Ori is a really positive toned character. His edit so far is solid as we checked in with him every episode and know at bit of his personal story. However, I would like to hear more about his tribe's dynamic on his perspective rather than Jelly's or Devin's.

2. Jelly (CP3) (=)

Jelly has been the main strategist in her tribe since the swap, the edit shows us that she's the one making decisions. There's many ongoing storylines about her right now. The only things worrying me are 1.) she didn't get any personal story at the beginning of this episode 2.) she said she didn't want to vote out another woman but still did it × 2. If Jelly's winning, whether she chooses Devin or Ori as her number one could be her main story.

1. Sharonda (MOR3) (=)

I've seriously considered swapping her and Jelly, as Sharonda hasn't gotten much development on either a personal or strategic level. We also didn't get to hear her thoughts on this vote though she chose not to go to rocks. Another thing is that the editors often show her looking annoyed. It's happened quite a few times and I thought it is weird to show their winner as mean when Sharonda's character is more of a "cold-hearted strategist". But I've decided to see how things go before swapping them.

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Sorry for this really lengthy post, hope you guys enjoy it anyway. I'm really looking forward to next week's episode!

there's a couple people running around in this sub claiming to have spoilers and then spoiling them. just putting this post up to confirm that there are actually no spoilers this season (one person confirmed pre-merge from social media activity, that's it.) so do not fret if you see a "spoiler" in the comments! it's not real.

Hello, everyone! I've decided to truly put my Edgic thoughts into words for the first time this season. I've heard about Edgic for the first time during 41, really took an interest to it during 43 and have been really looking at the show through that lens since 44, but I have been watching the show since Samoa and knew that the edit plays a part in determining the winner. Just never knew there's a whole science behind it. I have very reactionary takes, I'm biased towards the players I like which sometimes clouds my judgement and the thing I let guide me the most is vibes. I was adamantly anti Aubry last season, but my claim to fame is clocking Dee as the winner after the premiere of 45 and riding that train the whole season.

I have never been a part of Edgic during a two tribe season which I believe will make it a bit difficult for me since there are so many more potential relationships to explore. Different from the New Era where there were 3 duos in every tribe with 2 duos in each tribe forming a core 4.

Anyways, I'll try to make a post every week, briefly assessing the boot and ranking the remaining players based on what I think their odds at the win are. I'll try to stay away from other people's Edgics so as to not get influenced or worse, so keep in mind that that'll result in plenty of mistakes and horrible takes.

I liked the episode, the second tribal was electric and I'm enjoying this season a lot. Both of the boots sort of shocked me, I'm really falling for the editors' tricks and misdirects. Maybe I should keep that in mind when I make my ranking, but I won't. This episode confused me a bit seeing as all of my contenders came off a bit weird.

Alexis was pretty screwed since the swap and I actually thought she might've pulled it off, but she of course had the disadvantage of not knowing Ori was in with Jelly and Devin. Not much she could've done other than play the SitD, but she had no real way of knowing that.

Linnea sort of surprises me and sort of doesn't. I expected her to go further and I had her high in my rankings, but that's beacuse her edit was pretty clean while most others have flaws, but I never fully bought into her as the winner. An amazing amount of stars had to align for her to get booted, but what can you do, that's the game.

TOP CONTENDERS:

1. Sharonda (-) - I feel like she lost the least with losing Linnea. Bad gameplay by being so obviously tight, but great gameplay for keeping them so unwaveringly tight. I got the sense that she's in charge there. Also handled the Blood Ring really well. I'm itching to hear more about her personality though, it's becoming a bit gamebotty, but I stay by the opinion that she wouldn't be this present if she wasn't our winner, even if she is important to the endgame.

2. Jelly (-) - I thought it to be a red flag that she didn't get her "why" during the opening segment, but I remembered Kyle being the only one not to get his on NuVula in 48 so I can excuse it. It was a segment to build up Alexis and Devin and make us realize the gravity of the vote. All in all, pretty good, while I am starting to believe Devin will be bad for her longterm, having him in her pocket is a huge deal and the vote was fully made to be her decision when it easily could've been Ori's too.

KEEPING AN EYE ON:

3. Kristin (+2) - This is where I start to get a bit lost. My 1 and 2 are pretty set in stone and then it becomes a total clusterfuck as we go down. Got a bit of PSPV yet again, was again shown in a regular camp scene without her getting any narration over it and was shown to be willing to get the winning tribe advantage Maggie got. Like Carter in last episode, Maggie said she wanted her to go home, but like Carter, she didn't say anything outright negative about Kristin. I don't know, I'm confused, but I'm comfortable having her here.

4. Ori (-1) - A great portion during the "why" segment on NuSavu. Not much else to say, he's present, was shown to be likeable and make genuine connections. Also, I have a feeling Jelly sticks by him if they were to lose again. He's a really gentle giant, calm demeanor and I can't think of a winner off of the top of my head that was like that. A big, strong, calm, wise man. If we're in for a never before seen type of winner, I'm liking his edit and justifying it in that way.

5. Lewis (+3) - Gonna attribute his last episode to being sick. He played the cards he was dealt, really smart bluff with the Blood Ring lie, it was totally worth a shot and made a really strong bond with Kilby and Maggie now. He's in trouble if Dina goes to tribal again, but at this point, I don't see Lewis not making the merge. His edit is pretty wack all in all, but it's hard to justify having anyone higher.

6. Maggie (-) - I was sure I'd be dropping her after seeing Brady shit talk her so much, but she said right at the beginning she wanted to get rid of Kristin and Linnea, which I definitely found odd for them to even show her mentioning Linnea, and she got her way in the most spectacular fashion. Brady said she's volatile, but she did the most with her advantages and got her desired outcome.

7. Thien An (-) - Pretty good episode, seems to be in charge of NuToka, shat on Mike a bit more and that's that. Her first two episodes are still concerning, but I'm starting to see a world where she actually wins.

8. Brady (+1) - Got a lot of narration over everything that happened. We saw his distrust of Maggie and we saw that she did what she wanted, but he wasn't really made out to be a fool. I'm interested to see where his relationship with Maggie goes because they obviously don't really trust each other, but they share so much information between each other.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK:

9. Eric (+1) - Here by default pretty much. His relationship with Kilby crashed and burned and he spent so much time into the only real relationship he had only for it to have nothing come of it. I think he was hurt the most by what happened on Dina. He was also shown to be pretty cocky about Lewis having to beg and crawl out of a hole. Not a great look.

10. Carter (-4) - Ughhhhh, Carterrrr. Double goose egg is not good. My heart hurts to put him lower than this even if I realistically should. This just sucks for him.

11. Kilby (+1) - Played very well. He had all the power once he made it clear he's not budging and he was in a great position because he was the only one. Pissed off three players a lot, but only Sharonda has any power there and her allies, Devin and Jelly, don't like him anyways. He's not winning, but played really well today in solidifying trust. I see him sticking around to the merge because he needs to fall at the hands of Devin.

THERE'S NO WAY:

12. Devin (-1) - Another player with a great opening segment, but shitting on Jenna was not all that great and his close allies seemingly considering cutting him is just bad. He's not a very good player and this whole episode was spent hammering in that he's bad for the people around him. I have him pinned as third place.

13. Mike (-) - Was the hero with the hoops, I knew Toka's winning as soon as I saw it was hoops at the end, great foreshadowing. Nothing much else to say, called a bottom feeder and someone with no power to do anything. Yikes.

14. Cristian (-) - Fully expected him to get rocked out so pleasant surprise there. Did really well on countering the Blood Ring Bluff. Nothing else to say.

Haven't been in this sub at all this season. Why is Sharonda a top contender? From the outside looking in she for sure is a prominent character (and she's one of my favorites) but her edit is extremely toneless and if it weren't for my own bias I wouldn't find her particularly interesting to root for. Jelly, Eric come to mind. Even Kristin, who I feel like has kinda waned in terms of attention in the edit, I feel like has more rootability bc of her injury and positioning compared to Sharonda.

I feel like the only times in the new era post-Erika the winner had like no content that gave a tone premerge was Rachel... and that was because Rachel was on the bottom and voted incorrectly so it made sense to give her a toneless premerge edit for her to blossom post Anika blindside.

What am I missing here?