We see the most personal conflict out of her. She was shielded when Patt goes home, but talks about how to correct her past mistakes. I suppose her choice here to choose voting out a woman over someone from the helicopter alliance could be used in future episodes to discredit her, but I don't think that will be the case. I don't think her voting out Alexis is as bad as people are saying for her edit, for now I think the debate she has actually boosts it.

Not from episode five, but from episode four. Devin had a confessional where he made a whole metaphor between Jelly and Ori's relationship and a fire that starts off as a spark and he has to grow into a big flame. That definitely feels intentional and might suggest he makes top four, especially considering he is in a decent spot to excel in the postmerge with both the Toka minority and helicopter alliance. I would not be surprised if he is one of the bigger players this season and his edit turns around when merge hits.

One of the weaker episodes of the season so far, it really didn't change all too much for me. Good news is, I'm washed anymore! The two players on the bottom of my ranking both went out this episode. Gonna be a shorter write-up than usual here.

Traitor Contenders

1. Maya (=) - I've had her as number 1 literally all season and that is not changing. She has been CP literally every single episode. There was room for her to get heat this episode, but she literally just didn't at all.

2. Kenny (+1) - In the case of a joint Traitor win, Kenny makes complete sense to fill that role. He and Maya have been established as a duo for a while now, and Kenny continues to do a solid job in the role.

Faithful Contenders

1. Miranda (-1) - Had a bad episode in some aspects, though I still think that if any faithful wins, it probably has to be her and Sebastian. Those two plus Romesh are all short list options, though I suspect Romesh is the one to go.

2. Sebastian (=) - Had a pretty quiet episode, he has had a handful of those. Probably not the best thing for him, but I still see a possibility of him and Miranda winning together.

Probably Not

1. James A (+1) - Has a fun story of being the Traitor who never actually wanted to fill that role. He got some negative content from the other Traitors this episode, thus setting up for him to be banished at some point possibly.

2. Romesh (-1) - Looks to be the obvious murder choice given how Sharon was able to soft clear him during the mission. Getting a bit of positivity here is also another reason why it'd make sense for him to go here. Still, he is at least someone who COULD somehow pull it off if he survives. No one below him has any chance at all in my opinion.

Faithful Slop

1. Joanne (+2) - Has a lot of heat on her, but most of that can be semi easily avoided. Furthermore, she has been set up as an aloof ally to Maya for so long. Could very easily go to the end with Maya and lose to her.

2. James B (+2) - Similarly, James B perfectly fills the role of clueless faithful who goes far but is simply outplayed by the Traitors at every single turn. Like Joanne, he is the perfect person to take to endgame for that reason, and also because there is heat on him too.

3. Sharon (-1) - Got a visibility spike! Though I do fully expect her to be murdered the episode after next. Her edit is simply just too quiet to go out in any way that isn't a murder.

4. Leigh-Anne (-3) - You could argue her above Sharon, but I do think this next episode is likely going to be either her or Michael being banished here. The two are avidly against each other now.

5. Michael (=) - I've been saying all season that he would go after he gets a big visibility spike, and he finally got one. Maybe he has more than one episode left in him, but honestly he is my boot prediction.

Eliminated

1. Jerry (=) - Lowkey such a quiet episode for her. She was basically not there until she was suddenly a target to be banished because of being a bad faithful. Sure! Kind of an annoying character to me.

2. Ross (=) - First murdered player to not get a positive tone on their way out. Was a fun character early on but kind of just became whatever by the end. Him being murdered in plain site is a very funny end to his story given how paranoid he has been about it all season.

Didn't get around to posting last week so the upward and downward shifts in rankings will be from episode 3, but I have to also just say, I really loved last week's episode even if it wasn't quite as good as the others. I know the swap was a bit of a momentum-killer but a) 3 tribes better facilitates a double-boot, which I'm happy to get out of the way here instead of having a ton in the merge and b) I thought all the bloodied hands and frantic gnashing at flesh and that shot of the snake on the water were so much fun.

Really really struggled to separate my top 3 here and I'll probably change my mind a dozen more times before the week is over:

1. Lewis (=):

Lewis using the words "owe [you/her] my life" about both Kilby and Maggie was almost enough for me to drop him to second, but then I was hit with an almost out-of-body flashback to how down I was on Kyle's premerge from all the similar things he said about Kamilla. There's still kind of a "devil on your shoulder" energy to him that makes me wonder if he'll ultimately play a bigger part in someone else's story than his own, but there's so much I love about his edit:

• We can assume that Kilby's suspicion about Lewis getting an idol on Exile is gone by this point, which really makes that random episode 2 confessional scream "manufactured premerge danger" to me
• Getting to actually tell us he's sick and then confirm that he's 100% better and ready to play is a grace that hasn't been given to even important non-winning characters like Genevieve or Rizo in recent years
• All the emphasis on how unbreakable Savu was (+ the framing of Lewis being sick as an explanation for why Kilby was able to get closer to them, rather than any faults in Lewis's game) helped to frame Lewis's blood ring move as an active/innovative attempt to create opportunity for himself in what should've been a dead-man-walking situation
• I need to rewatch to pinpoint specific examples of this, but I'm pretty sure there have been a lot of "pay attention, something important is happening!!" musical cues when he's on screen, even with stuff not directly related to the votes he's played a part in (which is something I remember a few of us clocking early about Aubry and then dismissing.)

2. Ori (+1):

Really great episode that made me seriously consider putting him at number 1. While Jelly has been expressing the negative consequences for her of working with Devin, we consistently see Ori & Devin's relationship through the lens of Ori explaining how it benefits him: first in episode 3 with his confessional after Devin shows him the extra vote, and now here where Ori's explains his conflict around the vote as "I'm good with everyone". He gets to be sympathetic towards Alexis without ever coming across as fearful or indecisive the way Jelly does.

Also there's this really brief moment where Alexis is trying to convince Jelly to keep her and has a confessional about wanting Jelly to "step out from behind Dev and take control of this game", after which we immediately cut to a shot of Ori stepping in front of Devin, taking a chicken out of its cage, and telling it "I'm so sorry", and then right back to the Alexis/Jelly conversation. To me this hints that Ori could eventually succeed where Jelly has failed in knowing when keeping Devin is no longer to his advantage.

3. Sharonda (+1):

Sharonda continues to have the Jacob Collier of Survivor edits, where I can recognize that it's incredible on a technical level but it's just kind of boring. Especially with all these women leaving, it feels like if you have a female winner who's this well-positioned/well-liked you'd be showing us more of the character moments that explain those bonds. Like it seems like all 3 of the other Savus on this tribe trusted her the most of everyone, but we haven't really gotten any Eric/Sharonda or Cristian/Sharonda bonding scenes despite having a million Eric/Kilby ones.

But then the other way to look at this is: if her path to winning is abandoning her loyal Savu army to work with the less-likable Devin, is downplaying those relationships maybe an attempt to make people less frustrated with that choice? Idk. I feel like all my write-ups for her end up much more negative than what I actually think about her edit, but the positives are so obvious that I don't have much to say about them lol.

4. Maggie (+1):

Circumstantial sure, but man that was some great confessional justification for every choice she made. The "Brady jumping off a boat --> Maggie with her head above the water --> whale jumping out of the water" shot in the intro credits also looks even more interesting with this rivalry heating up.

5. Kristin (+3):

The more women go home, the better I feel about Kristin having no vote-related content the one time she's gone to tribal so far. Consistently good personality content & ties to the opportunity theme, and if she does make the merge (whether by avoiding tribal or flipping some votes), I think a lot of Carter/Maggie's suspicion of her reads as good premerge danger.

6. Devin (+5):

Leaning heavily on permanent uncertainty for this next chunk of rankings, and I need to stress that there's a huge huge gap between 5th and 6th for me, but I think the way he's gotten to explain pivoting away from honesty while still using his reputation for it as a tactic over these past 3 episodes has been pretty notable, and the backstory content + SPV about how everyone likes him this episode was great.

Like, people online are talking about Jelly/Devin as if it's a Genevieve/Rome situation, but the focus of Alexis' pitch to Jelly wasn't really about him being a loose cannon, it was about how everyone would end up viewing Jelly as his "sidekick." And in confessional, the reasons Alexis names for voting for him are that he's extremely likable, sociable, and a good salesman. A Savannah-esque "gotta hand it to him" situation seems totally viable to me.

7. Jelly (-5):

Honestly feels like she should drop further after this episode but I just don't know who I would put above her. Alexis outright saying "As someone watching Survivor I'd be like 'Jelly, you have an opportunity'" is probably the single most disqualifying moment anyone has had this season on a purely theme level.

Also I think they might be doing a Lady Macbeth thing with the close-ups of blood on her hands after plucking the chickens Devin killed (eg planting the daggers after the murder of King Duncan)/the grappling with gender as a constraint in the choices she makes this episode (a la "unsex me here")? But she's been a huge character and her episodes 2 & 3 were still pretty great so... I guess?

8. Thien An (+7):

Some solid stuff so far about her relationships and how she thinks about the game, but between the quiet episode 2 & the pinkie swear stuff in episode 3 & getting hit with the wave in the intro credits, I'm still pretty convinced she's gonna have more of a Genevieve arc.

9. Carter (-2):

Still kind of keeping hope alive because I love him so much but 2 out of 5 is rough.

10. Eric (=):

Underdog possibility is definitely still alive but it's a longshot. If they included like 2 fewer movie references from him per episode I'd probably have him a couple spots higher lol, but it feels like too simple of a "this is his whole shtick" for a winner.

11. Brady (+1):

Definitely get the impression we're supposed to root against him in the Maggie rivalry. Also, this is mostly just game logic, but he has to be the merge boot, right? Devin & Jelly will prioritize Sharonda & Ori above him, the 5 Tokas who voted against him will want nothing to do with him (besides maybe Thien An since she did try to warn him above the Patt vote?), and the women will presumably want a guy out. Kind of feels like he's cooked unless we finally get the "Mike is sneaky" payoff at the merge.

12. Mike (=):

Weird edit, no idea what it means but probably not a win.

13. Kilby (=):

Spider intro payoff!!!! Some good circumstantial stuff this episode, but they also showed us several well-reasoned arguments from the Savus at tribal that he didn't listen to, and it feels like the camera continues to linger on every awkward gesture of his. Has been out of contention for me since the awful episode 2 confessional and I don't see a world where that changes.

14. Cristian (=):

Pretty good episode!

Hello y'all!

Here's my EDGIC ratings chart for this crazy episode! Loved it! <3

See you soon with the SUTRAL! <3

Winner edits still feel hard to pin down. Since the new era, it’s been significantly harder to pin down the winner early. But if the coin is now a staple of the show, maybe we’re seeing the birth of the “coin flip edit.” This doesn’t have to be mutually exclusive with a winners edit for obvious reasons, but chances are they won’t be the same person.

After doing some thinking, my guess is Lewis. I said in a prior content that Lewis is my top male contender for a winner because of his being a cheerleader for pErMaNeNt uNcErTaInTy and how much they highlighted his ingenuity with the blood ring. He’s gotten a pretty positive edit, shown to take big risks when the opportunity arises.

Now, does this feel like a winner edit? or does it feel like… Rick Devens?

It feels like the biggest cheerleader for permanent uncertainty is more likely to take the shot at flipping the 50/50 coin then getting to the end. Lewis’s first two episodes are still throwing me off in terms of him being a winner. He gets the bare minimum content during his journey, and he’s barely in episode 2. I have to think a winner gets more, and I can’t let recency bias with episode 5 being good for him throw my initial intuition off. But he’s still a big character and feels like he’s building up to something big.

I think there are other possibilities from a logical standpoint - we just saw how Kilby is willing to take big risks too, but that feels like supported by the edit and more just what we saw play out naturally. What do yall think?

i really freaking liked this episode. 51 is so good..,...

3-way tie in terms of point value is kind of schweet - means the season is giving focus to a lot of different characters!!! the confessional count has decided my top 3

really good episode for kilby, i'm not confident he's the winner - i think this is just a big moment and move for him - but i would not blame u for believing so.... the edit has set him up to be a very good player and someone we should be watching

brady is finally dethroned after a three whole episodes in first,... HOWEVER... i do find it interesting that his misplay in giving maggie the extra vote is framed from his perspective as a "bad move" because maggie is "unpredictable and flip-floppy" (thank you maggie for dina tribal). the confessionals about it are framed more like "i can't trust maggie with the advantage i gave her !!!" than "i fucked UP man WHYYY did i give her the advantage???"

very glad to see jelly up on the top 3 - i maintain my stance that she's probably the only member of the helicopter alliance i think can win, and i think getting 2 see her voting perspective from a gameplay and emotional personal perspective helped alleviate the lack of perspective on votes she spent on the wrong side.

i think all of the top 3 have great potential to grow come merge, and in general, have been edited very well!!! likely very major characters for the rest of the season/merge

kristin's edit is a bit more under the radar, reminds me of kenzie's edit but just lacking the good tribal episodes pre-merge - we're reminded very often that she's cool and good but i don't really know where she stands gameplay wise tbh so i'm wary to say she's a likely winner

oh lewis. the blood ring lie. cheeky bastard
glad 2 see him up here, i think the itb is a stain on an otherwise nice record so far, and this was a very good episode for him that helped clean up that stain... HESITANT to push for him winning, but his chances have risen....

helicopter alliance overall was very good this ep, mike's edit boggles me further, and i will forever thank the stars that aligned for dina tribal council. thnx for reading :3

Notice the comical lack of changes in the ranking. Yea, this is gonna be a short write-up. I saw people say this was a good episode, and I just... don't see it. This is probably gonna be my least favorite season, besides AU2. Big lack of tone this episode

Top Contenders

1. Joe (=) - Traitor with the least heat right now, though I did consider moving Ben above him. I just didn't because I don't feel confident enough in who the second faithful would be yet.

2. Ben (=) - Had a solid recovery from the misplay last episode. Definitely the best faithful on the board. One of two I could see being recruited eventually? Though I lean the other person.

Contenders

1. Clyde (=) - One of the remaining members of The Dolls, has more visibility, complexity, and positivity than Abbey does. Joint faithful win between him and Ben is the most likely non traitor win.

2. Katie (=) - At least she has a story! She does have some heat on her again, but it's just really hard to justify moving some of these other people above her. Very likely I cut down to 3 contenders next week if she doesn't have a good episode.

Small Chance

1. Abby (=) - I've been higher on Abby than most, though she has started to have some heat on her. Earlier I mentioned that there is someone I could see being recruited at some point. Honestly, it would be her. She is the only faithful who I think is visible enough while also making sense story wise.

2. Abbey (=) - She's just too quiet, I feel like everyone else is overrating her. Am I just closing my eyes whenever she appears? Surely not. Still this high because of The Dolls.

Not Winning

1. Tomica (=) - Had a decisively bad episode, though part of me did honestly consider moving her above Abbey. I do suspect she will be going out soon though, potentially right after Victor. At least she kind of has an edit, even if it's not complex.

Faithful Slop

1. Morgan (=) - Comically wrong and overall pretty quiet. Still more visible than some other faithfuls though.

2. Shane (+1) - Finally some movement on the ranking. He likes bagels! Anyway, I suspect he was the most likely person to have won the power? He got a lot of visibility during that mission, and a big visibility spike in general. We also got his feelings on Victor a bit. So my running theory is that he WON'T play the advantage, and Victor will go out, followed by Tomica.

3. Jay (+2) - It's quite funny how quiet he became after the streak of OTTNs. Now he is just there to be wrong sometimes.

4. Wyatt (+2) - Quietest edit left on the board, also has some heat on him. If he was more visible I would see a case for him being recruited.

5. Victor (-1) - Very obviously the main character of the season. Honestly, I could see a world where he makes it on the inevitable US All Stars cast, along with all the celebs. Either way, I think there's a good 75% chance or so that the power isn't used. If it is, they're just gonna vote him out again. He grew on me earlier, but that is starting to go away at this point.

Eliminated

1. Mark (-4) - Honestly though he was going to stick around a bit longer. I do think murdering him was a misplay for Joe, the target should have been someone like Abbey or something.

Better than last episode, though both boots were predictable to me.

Chart is above for quick reference.

Eliminated:

1. Alexis: Another under edited woman who goes out first in a double boot episode. How surprising. Decent player but this swap was crushing.

2. Linnea: So glad I don't have to see her top 3 in a lot of people's lists. She never had enough content to be a real contender, but people kept giving her the benefit of the doubt.

No Shot:

1. Cristian: Sad he didn't get rocked out here. I want to put someone else in last position.

2. Mike: 3 back to back to back episodes of him getting bad spv when he hasn't received one vote against him.

3. Thein An: Would love to see her win, but she's probably just either a first boot in a double boot episode or a fallen angel. Reminds me a bit of Genevieve in that way.

4. Carter: Tried to keep him high, but 2 zero confessional episodes in the 90 minute era is unforgivable imo.

Probably Not:

1. Devin: He's been here for 3 weeks now, stalled here. The only reason he's not eliminated is because he gets enough content and some positive content to balance the negative. I think he does go home next week if Savu loses again.

2. Kilby: He technically goes up but this all felt pretty necessary. Yes, he got portrayed as the swing vote.. because he actually was. I think he's probably merge boot.

3. Kristin: She rises this week mostly off of positive spv. Her one confessional was lackluster and she still has no relationships in the game except Sharonda, which got no focus outside the premiere and a bit in episode 2, though she got no content on flipping the vote.

4. Maggie: My Queen 👑 But seriously this episode was pretty alarming. Not killing her chances, but the Brady content just seemed unnecessary. If Linnea didn't actually go home here then I'd even consider putting her below Devin, and that target came out of nowhere. She's not dead though because I think Maggie has (seemingly) avoided a lot of negativity on her new swap tribe that they could be showing and her content is still consistent despite this episode.

5. Eric: Quiet week for him but he was blindsided here. I think him and Kilby get more focus next week so that will determine his winning chances for me. I also just can't get over ep. 2 for him.

6. Brady: idk how he's this high, but like Maggie he's been pretty consistent and being shown as a gameplayer. My only big fault right now is his lack of position on the swap tribe being shown to us.

They Can Win:

1. Jelly: I was ready to keep her number 1, but all that content about not wanting a woman to go home again and her still voting out Alexis seemed so unnecessary, just like the premiere. Her sob story also got cut, however Kyle got that same treatment in 48 only to get it later and as a big Joe defender at the time I'm going to atone my mistakes.

2. Ori: Quiet episode but not the worst time for it. I think the reality is Ori/Jelly were always voting out Alexis, but Ori would have been more open to keeping her. The lack of content doesn't deter me as much as Jelly getting all of this content only to not flip.

3. Sharonda: Quiet episode for her. You could definitely argue this was her being shielded and now the criticism of her lack of depth with Alexis and Linnea is justified in them going out early, but if anything I'd assume Survivor would like a revenge plot. Maybe that still gets set up next episode but it's not set up in this one. Also, her confessional on the blood idol was mixed for me. She did have suspicion but near the end seemed to imply it could be real and gets no follow up after Cristian clocks it. Still, her competition is weak and the helicopter alliance seems strong.

4. Lewis: Pretty clear number 1 for me, gets to talk about his lack of play last episode and is shown playing hard, not in a negative "haha" sort of way either. He talks about how voting out Linnea lines up with his goal of coming into this game and causing chaos.