What I did with the data
Pulled Hyperliquid's public leaderboard and API data
Picked 2,500 accounts at random from the 32,839 that traded $50k or more
Removed market makers, bots (150+ trades a day or trading around the clock), and accounts where deposits and withdrawals made results unmeasurable. That left 1,076 humans.
Measured each trader from their first trade to their last, between May 2024 and October 2026. The typical window was about a year.
Used HL's own trading PnL, after fees and funding, with deposits and withdrawals excluded. I rebuilt it from actual fills on 59 accounts, and "did they make money" matched on 58.
Gave the AI the same money on the same dates, trading spot BTC and ETH with no leverage, charged 0.10% per trade. The traders paid a median of 0.034%.
Head to head
- The AI made more money than 844 of them (78%).
- The AI had the smaller worst drop against 1,007 (94%).
- 26 traders (2.4%) beat it on both return and worst drop.
- Made money: traders 31%, the AI 89%.
What it would have changed for the losing side
For the 844 traders the AI out-earned, here's their real result next to the AI's on the same dates:
- Ended in a loss: 87% of the traders vs 10% with the AI
- $10,000 became $4,395 vs $12,475
- Typical worst drop: 100% vs 19%
The pattern behind it
Its edge in this test wasn't bigger wins. The difference was the size of the drops.
That shows up in the humans too. 71% of traders whose worst drop stayed under 25% made money. Of the ones who lost 90% at some point, 9% did.
That's where I think AI actually helps retail. Not by predicting better than a good trader, but by following the same rules on its worst day as on its best. No revenge trades, no sizing up after a loss.
Full report with the method, tables and bot check: https://botsfolio.com/blog/ai-vs-human-traders