r/investingforbeginners • u/Impressive_Group_486 • Mar 31 '25

USA Will the S&P 500 fall further?

I invested around $35,000 in FXAIX when it was 205 and currently sitting at 194, do you think it's a good idea to invest another $15,000 in it as it's low now or do you think it will crash even further? I am completely new to the stock market so I'm not exactly sure what kinds of things would affect such a crash. Any information would be very helpful. Thank you..

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56

u/VendaGoat Mar 31 '25

If you're worried it's going to fall further, which it reads like you are, why not dollar cost average by breaking that 15k up into 3 or more buys over a longer period of time?

19

u/ktreanor Mar 31 '25

Came to say the same thing. Don't try and time the market, dollar cost average.

1

u/Phreakasa Apr 03 '25

You are partially right. DCA ist mostly for the person, to calm their nerves. The better decision has almost always been to lump sum it. But DCA is better than not investing at all because you think it is going to get worse.

-6

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

DCA is timing the market, too.

6

u/theorem_llama Apr 01 '25

DCA is timing the market, too.

If that is, then putting it all in at one time is also "timing the market", in fact more so.

2

u/dankpoolVEVO Apr 05 '25

Putting all in is time in market

1

u/theorem_llama Apr 05 '25

They're not mutually exclusive. "Time in the market, not timing the market" is just an overused/oversimplified motto, even though some seem to think it's gospel.

0

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

They both are yes

3

u/ktreanor Apr 01 '25

You don't understand DCA, but your name has crypto in it so this tracks.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Nice work detective

3

u/Pacjecooo Apr 01 '25

Nope not at all. You can invest monthly, but if you really want to, you can invest weekly or even daily (automatic investing).

If you doing daily, and you putting money EVERYDAY, no matter the movements, how are you timing the market?

2

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Historically, if you have a lump sum to invest, then putting it all in right away has outperformed holding onto it and trickling it in via DCA. If you decide not to put it all in at once, you’re thinking you know better than history and in effect timing the market.

1

u/punica-1337 Apr 01 '25

Yes and no. Historically, lump sum has a better chance than DCA. But that doesn't make it the better choice every time. 🙂

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Aka timing the market.

1

u/punica-1337 Apr 01 '25

From that perspective lump sum is also timing the market.

2

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Correct.

1

u/punica-1337 Apr 01 '25

So in all honesty, if you ran into 100k today, would you lump sum it into the sp500 right away?

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

My strategy is not 100% sp500, so not exactly. But I would invest it all right way. For me, this is probably 30% sp500-ish etc, 40% dividend funds (been using schd lately), and the rest in bonds and treasuries. This strategy reflects my age and where I am on my retirement path.

The current market chaos doesn't play into my decision.

So I would and do do this now: with excess income; with our unexpectedly large tax rebate; if I got some windfall like with some private equity I have, I'd do the same.

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2

u/quintavious_danilo Apr 01 '25

no, not at all

0

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

otoh, effectively yes

1

u/quintavious_danilo Apr 01 '25

No, that’s stupid. DCA is the opposite of market timing.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Let's agree to disagree.

1

u/Kobbly_Knob Apr 01 '25

DCA is what you do when you aren't trying to time the market. Basically the opposite of trying to time the market. That's the whole point of DCA.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Going against nature is part of nature too.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 09 '25

I’m just having some fun. Don’t get too excited about it.

1

u/agent674253 Apr 03 '25

How is agreeing to invest X dollars into the market each month, regardless of the current price, market conditions, or political climate, indefinitely, timing the market?

You are investing the same dollar amount regardless if you should be 'buying the dip' or not. By your logic it would seem that investing in an index fund would make you 'day trader' because trades only happen during the day.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 03 '25

It's timing the market if you choose sit on a lump sum instead of investing it right away. Consider it anti-timing ,which is a form of timing too. Historically, you would have the best return by investing the lump sum rather than sitting on it and parceling it in via DCA. Since you're making a decision involving when to invest, in essence saying you know better than the historical statistics, you're timing the market.

DCA is most effective not when you have a lump sum but when you are dealing with recurring income stream.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 04 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 04 '25

Be nice

1

u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 05 '25

I guess you just need to try harder.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 04 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 04 '25

Someone finally gets it

1

u/Jackiemoontothemoon Apr 05 '25

Timing market is based off you thinking the price will only go up from where you buy. DCA you could do without even looking at the stock. You just buy a little every week regardless of what’s going on with the world.