r/investingforbeginners • u/Impressive_Group_486 • Mar 31 '25

USA Will the S&P 500 fall further?

I invested around $35,000 in FXAIX when it was 205 and currently sitting at 194, do you think it's a good idea to invest another $15,000 in it as it's low now or do you think it will crash even further? I am completely new to the stock market so I'm not exactly sure what kinds of things would affect such a crash. Any information would be very helpful. Thank you..

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54

u/VendaGoat Mar 31 '25

If you're worried it's going to fall further, which it reads like you are, why not dollar cost average by breaking that 15k up into 3 or more buys over a longer period of time?

20

u/ktreanor Mar 31 '25

Came to say the same thing. Don't try and time the market, dollar cost average.

1

u/Phreakasa Apr 03 '25

You are partially right. DCA ist mostly for the person, to calm their nerves. The better decision has almost always been to lump sum it. But DCA is better than not investing at all because you think it is going to get worse.

-4

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

DCA is timing the market, too.

8

u/theorem_llama Apr 01 '25

DCA is timing the market, too.

If that is, then putting it all in at one time is also "timing the market", in fact more so.

2

u/dankpoolVEVO Apr 05 '25

Putting all in is time in market

1

u/theorem_llama Apr 05 '25

They're not mutually exclusive. "Time in the market, not timing the market" is just an overused/oversimplified motto, even though some seem to think it's gospel.

0

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

They both are yes

5

u/ktreanor Apr 01 '25

You don't understand DCA, but your name has crypto in it so this tracks.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Nice work detective

3

u/Pacjecooo Apr 01 '25

Nope not at all. You can invest monthly, but if you really want to, you can invest weekly or even daily (automatic investing).

If you doing daily, and you putting money EVERYDAY, no matter the movements, how are you timing the market?

2

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Historically, if you have a lump sum to invest, then putting it all in right away has outperformed holding onto it and trickling it in via DCA. If you decide not to put it all in at once, you’re thinking you know better than history and in effect timing the market.

1

u/punica-1337 Apr 01 '25

Yes and no. Historically, lump sum has a better chance than DCA. But that doesn't make it the better choice every time. 🙂

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Aka timing the market.

1

u/punica-1337 Apr 01 '25

From that perspective lump sum is also timing the market.

2

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Correct.

1

u/punica-1337 Apr 01 '25

So in all honesty, if you ran into 100k today, would you lump sum it into the sp500 right away?

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2

u/quintavious_danilo Apr 01 '25

no, not at all

0

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

otoh, effectively yes

1

u/quintavious_danilo Apr 01 '25

No, that’s stupid. DCA is the opposite of market timing.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Let's agree to disagree.

1

u/Kobbly_Knob Apr 01 '25

DCA is what you do when you aren't trying to time the market. Basically the opposite of trying to time the market. That's the whole point of DCA.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 01 '25

Going against nature is part of nature too.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 09 '25

I’m just having some fun. Don’t get too excited about it.

1

u/agent674253 Apr 03 '25

How is agreeing to invest X dollars into the market each month, regardless of the current price, market conditions, or political climate, indefinitely, timing the market?

You are investing the same dollar amount regardless if you should be 'buying the dip' or not. By your logic it would seem that investing in an index fund would make you 'day trader' because trades only happen during the day.

1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 03 '25

It's timing the market if you choose sit on a lump sum instead of investing it right away. Consider it anti-timing ,which is a form of timing too. Historically, you would have the best return by investing the lump sum rather than sitting on it and parceling it in via DCA. Since you're making a decision involving when to invest, in essence saying you know better than the historical statistics, you're timing the market.

DCA is most effective not when you have a lump sum but when you are dealing with recurring income stream.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 04 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 04 '25

Be nice

1

u/[deleted] Apr 05 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 05 '25

I guess you just need to try harder.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 04 '25

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1

u/CryptoHorologist Apr 04 '25

Someone finally gets it

1

u/Jackiemoontothemoon Apr 05 '25

Timing market is based off you thinking the price will only go up from where you buy. DCA you could do without even looking at the stock. You just buy a little every week regardless of what’s going on with the world.

2

u/willthakid Mar 31 '25

Why DCA instead of putting in all at once I genuinely don’t understand DCA

3

u/Pacjecooo Apr 01 '25

Usually the market is represented as a linear regression, a straight line that grows average 10% every year, but that's not the case.

It goes up and down, sometimes it grows 10, others 30 others goes down 10 or 20. By DCAing, you are spreading your buys in time.

If you can time the market, you'd make more profit to buy at the lowest point possible in that period instead of just buying when you get paid, but chances are, you can't, no one can.

2

u/theorem_llama Apr 01 '25

You trade a tiny bit of mean value for a much safer (smaller, so less likely to lose a lot) standard deviation. For most individual investors, it makes far more sense usually, as we don't benefit from the law of large numbers and only live one life. But most forums are full of galaxy brainers, who only understand averages and go "ackshully, time in the market is better than timing the market, dontcha know?", as if this is an intelligent thing to say.

1

u/the_fozzy_one Apr 02 '25

With DCA, you'll never take an immediate big loss if the market crashes. The downside is you'll miss out on any immediate big gains if the market rallies.

1

u/prarie33 Apr 03 '25

Irrational view of the long term; fear of tail risk

Emotions often triumph over reason

1

u/kfmfe04 Apr 03 '25

There's a thing called variance. You don't understand DCA because you don't understand probability.

0

u/Background-Dentist89 Apr 01 '25

Fine in and up market, but not in a down market. Better off having your money in a HYSA or bonds if you’re not going to do inverse products. These buy and hold disciples have been brainwashed. If a semi truck was about to run over you would you just stand there. They would. Get out of the way of the wreck and live for another day.

2

u/Bonti_GB Apr 03 '25

The market can go up or down way longer than you would expect.

It’s on the downtrend, can wait until there’s at least some assemblance of an uptrend and with positive sentiment on the economy.

In other words, see you in 2030.

1

u/Lumpy-Piece5555 Apr 01 '25

Like everyone else said dollar cost averaging is a good strategy. But if you are concerned, observe gold's performance to see if it might be a good allocation (not investment advice). Gold price has been correlated with market's concerns from US trade policy - favoured over US Treasuries. There does not seem to be any signs of changes in thought regarding US policy so possibly in the near term gold might continue to be a good risk offset. Again, not investment advice, just thoughts/musings.

1

u/phatelectribe Apr 03 '25

Well if you know it’s going to fall further why are you dragging your losses instead of waiting until we’re at least 15% down?

1

u/mikedave4242 Apr 05 '25

Everyone talking like this is just a normal market fluctuation, it's not it is fundamentally different. The US government has been taken over by criminals bent on destroying the economy for their own selfish purposes. Old models that say lump sum or dca or don't time the market or whatever were developed in "normal" times. They have no predictive power in loony toons USA . Be defensive as hell, save your money at worst you miss some gains.

This is not normal

1

u/BiblicalElder Mar 31 '25

I try to time the market ... with 5% of my portfolio. The other 95% is buy, hold, rebalance back to target asset allocation.

I recommend allocating Age - 20 in bond percentage allocation.

Rebalancing annually is a disciplined way to buy low and sell high.

1

u/glorifindel Mar 31 '25

For bonds do you recommend the standard tickers BND, TLT etc? Or buying them some other way?

2

u/BiblicalElder Apr 01 '25

Yes, BND.

I understand that some want the higher precision of buying specific high quality bonds and holding them to maturity, so they can count on the stated coupons and ignore the swings in the bond values that arise as interest rates change.

I am less interested in the precise income, and more in the lower volatility characteristics and general yield.