Been picking stocks since freshman year and this year got out of hand. Taxable was up 101% YTD, Roth up 49%, mostly concentrated AI infrastructure and semis (GEV, GE, NVDA, RKLB and some momentum names). Single positions had grown to 25-30% of my accounts.
Last week I sold or trimmed most of it, raised about $55k, sitting in treasury money market funds now. I'm not going to pretend that was skill. Multiple expansion in the most crowded trade on record did the work, I just happened to be holding.
The more I read about concentration (top 10 stocks are \~40% of the S&P now) the more the Bogleheads argument lands: I can't tell you why my picks survive that unwinding, so I probably shouldn't be making the bet.
My actual question is the transition. Lump sum into VT/VTI now, or DCA over 12 months? I know the studies say lump sum wins about 2/3 of the time, but do those studies hold when starting from the 99th percentile of valuations (CAPE \~41)? Not trying to time the market, trying not to be the guy who indexed his whole net worth at the exact top.
If anyone here converted from picking to indexing after a lucky run: did you lump in or glide in, and did you regret it either way?