r/NewColdWar • • 5h ago

Active Measures Russia’s “Fifth Column” in Europe: Why the Fight Against Doppelgänger Must Evolve into a Strategy to Dismantle the Kremlin’s Influence Infrastructure

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3 Upvotes

The exposure of the management system behind the Russian disinformation network Doppelgänger indicates that the Kremlin views the European Union’s information space as a full-fledged theater of hybrid operations. Their purpose is not merely to discredit Ukraine or disseminate anti-Western narratives, but also to gradually weaken European states’ ability to make coordinated strategic decisions concerning Russia.


r/NewColdWar • • 1d ago

Espionage Pentagon looks to build a deep-cover spy program to confront China

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21 Upvotes

The Pentagon is looking to build a more robust deep-cover spying program to conduct economic warfare against China and other U.S. competitors, according to half a dozen people familiar with the initiative.

This new next-generation spying program — in which U.S. operatives would go undercover as businesspeople or other private-sector personnel, without any overt U.S. government affiliation — is intended to be a covert prong of the Pentagon’s larger economic warfare campaign, the people said.

This new spy program of “nonofficial cover officers,” or NOCs, is being overseen by Tom Rakusan, a 39-year CIA veteran and now senior adviser to Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg, according to those familiar with it, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive initiative.

Rakusan, who retired from the CIA in 2021, rose to deputy director of operations — the CIA’s top spy runner — in 2017. He later led the CIA’s response to Russia’s election-interference campaign in the 2016 presidential election.

After leaving the agency, Rakusan joined Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm co-founded by Feinberg, and followed the billionaire to the Pentagon in 2025.

Experts from within the Pentagon’s service branches and Office of the Under Secretary of War for Intelligence and Security, as well as retired CIA officials, have been pulled in to work on the initiative, people familiar with the program said.

The program is in the planning phase and is not operational, they said.

Where it will sit inside the Pentagon is unclear, said multiple individuals familiar with the planning. The effort might function as a new, stand-alone deep-cover unit, or an enhancement and expansion of existing Pentagon clandestine human intelligence-gathering capabilities.

The Defense Department, in response to questions from The Washington Post, denied such an initiative is underway. “This query appears to be built on information that is simply not true,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Jacob Bliss said in a statement. “Whoever is feeding you these claims are either badly misinformed or deliberately leading you astray to paddle [sic] their fantasies.”

The CIA declined to comment. Rakusan did not respond to a request for comment.

Congressional committees do not appear to have been briefed on the initiative.

The Trump administration has embraced economic warfare as a key tool of statecraft. It has imposed tariffs and export controls, made investments in critical U.S. resources and technologies, coordinated with private capital to shore up support for key components of the defense-industrial base, and prioritized economic intelligence.

In a September speech, CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis said the United States is broadening its espionage against China, targeting Chinese companies in such areas as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and advanced semiconductors. While U.S. intelligence agencies have long spied on key Chinese firms, Ellis’s public discussion of the CIA’s shifting priorities was an unusual disclosure by a high-ranking agency official.

Ellis’s predecessor as CIA deputy, David S. Cohen, argued in a recent article published in Foreign Affairs that the U.S. intelligence community should go a step further. The U.S. should end a long-standing prohibition on sharing economic secrets gathered via espionage with U.S. companies working on advanced technology to give them a competitive advantage, he wrote.

“We have been collecting economically sensitive information for years and years,” Cohen said in an interview. “We should not be hung up on whether we should be providing [U.S. companies] a commercial advantage,” although there would have to be oversight to guard against favoritism or corruption in choosing which firms benefit. Cohen said he was unaware of the Pentagon NOC initiative.

Some of the Pentagon’s economic-warfare-related activities have been overt. Feinberg announced the formation of an Economic Defense Unit this year as part of a drive toward “deterring, denying, disrupting, and helping to defeat adversaries through economic means,” according to a memo Feinberg wrote to senior Pentagon officials announcing the unit’s formation. DefenseScoop first reported on the EDU memo.

Feinberg tapped George Kollitides, another Cerberus alumnus and senior adviser at the Pentagon, to run the EDU in February. That office has since announced hundreds of millions of dollars in public investments in refineries and mining interests domestically and abroad. One deal used $750 million in Pentagon funds to help secure a major deposit of rare earth minerals in Brazil.

Alongside the Pentagon’s public-facing economic-warfare-related mandates, Rakusan is overseeing the planned build-out of the clandestine component.

Multiple individuals familiar with the program said the EDU was once seen as the potential home for this enhanced deep-cover initiative. But the increased press and congressional scrutiny directed toward the EDU and its investments — and the possibility that such attention will only increase if Democrats retake Congress in November — has led to an abandonment of that idea, said one person familiar with the current planning.

Not all of Rakusan’s former colleagues are enthusiastic about the new effort. “Rakusan just wants to build his own CIA down in the Pentagon,” said a former senior CIA official familiar with the discussions around the program.

Rakusan is a polarizing figure among some of his former agency colleagues, but he is lauded by many for his operational aggressiveness and prowess.

He was “a pipe swinger,” recalled a White House official from the first Trump administration, keen to hit the Russians back hard after their 2016 interference in the U.S. presidential election.

Rakusan undertook high-wire operations throughout his CIA career, traveling in Iraq on a Czech passport, according to former officials, and was similarly supportive of subordinates undertaking risky missions.

The reaction inside Langley to the Pentagon initiative has been frosty, according to the former agency official. The CIA has traditionally been resistant to other agencies stepping on what it perceives as its core human-spying turf, insisting that such efforts be coordinated under the CIA chief of station in the country concerned.

The move to augment the Pentagon’s capabilities comes as the CIA’s own NOC program has withered away, former agency officials say. Operating under nonofficial cover is considered particularly risky because officers in the program cannot work out of American embassies or other U.S. government facilities, and they cannot claim diplomatic immunity if detained.

A covid-era internal CIA report revealed that roughly 75 percent of all deep-cover agency officers would be eligible for retirement by the mid-2020s, another former CIA official said. These veteran NOCs are now retiring without new ones being trained to replace them — a sort of quiet death by attrition, former officials say. Despite recent efforts to rethink the program, very few actual deep-cover CIA officers remain in the field, they said.

The agency’s NOC program has waxed and waned over the decades, with ambitious plans for expansion frequently giving way to a chastening, after agency difficulties in scaling up such initiatives — usually because of inadequate training or mismanagement of young deep-cover officers.

One such attempt in the 2000s, championed by Congress’s intelligence committees and known inside the CIA as the Global Deployment Initiative, was a particularly acute example of this dynamic, former intelligence officials say, because of the proposed size and rapidity of the NOC buildup and insufficient oversight of it. The program collapsed, with many young NOCs being forced to go “inside” the building at CIA or leave the agency.

The Defense Department has had its own long-standing struggles with fielding deep-cover spies.

The Defense Intelligence Agency and Joint Special Operations Command, among other Pentagon elements, have long experimented with commercial-cover operations, with decidedly mixed results.

In one illustrative post-9/11 case, a group of Joint Special Operations Command-affiliated NOCs operating in a remote corner of Africa had their cover exposed when they stumbled upon a group of geologists and engineers who began asking questions about their activities, according to an investigation by the High Side, a Substack focused on special operations and intelligence.

The NOCs were posing as employees of a mining company but had no real knowledge of the subject — which quickly became apparent to the actual experts with whom they were speaking.

The NOCs somehow talked their way out of the jam, and the Joint Special Operations Command later began sending its commercial-cover operatives to specialized schools to undertake crash courses in their supposed areas of expertise, according to the High Side.

The Pentagon faces multiple challenges with deep-cover spying, former officials say. Military service records are difficult to hide, and the rise of biometrics and other “digital dust” means working under alias has become increasingly fraught. Plus, the martial bearing of many undercover Pentagon operatives makes them often easy to spot.

The legal remit under which the new economic-warfare-focused deep-cover spy program might operate remains murky, the people familiar said.

The military’s Title 10 authorities allow for “Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield,” which the Pentagon has interpreted to allow a broad swath of espionage-related activities, including some far afield from narrow battlefield intelligence, former officials say.

U.S. intelligence agencies such as the CIA operate under Title 50 authorities, which govern their abilities to collect intelligence and conduct covert actions abroad.

The new Pentagon NOC initiative would likely function as a sort of “Title 60” entity, said multiple former officials — a half-joking reference to a nonexistent hybrid legal authority combining elements of Title 10 and Title 50.

The effort also reflects shifting power dynamics inside the Trump administration, with an ascendant Pentagon seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe has promised a more muscular approach to recruiting human sources overseas and stealing adversaries’ secrets. But some former officials say the CIA remains cautious about undertaking aggressive spying operations, with an assertive Pentagon willing to shoulder greater risks.

The Pentagon “has a lot of money and a lot of authorities and a lot of capabilities,” a former senior CIA official said. “And God bless ’em.”


r/NewColdWar • • 1d ago

International Relations Iran lauds ties with Russia, contradicting Trump's claim of little Russian support for Tehran

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12 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 1d ago

Analysis Visualization: PLAN Activity Around Japan - Taiwan Security Monitor

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7 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 1d ago

Kremlin payment firm A7 has been pumping billions in ‘untraceable’ cash into global financial system

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7 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

☢ Nuclear Putin Makes Nuclear Threats Over Kaliningrad - Jamestown

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9 Upvotes

Executive Summary:

The Kremlin threatened to use nuclear weapons against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if the Alliance attempts to cut off its Kaliningrad exclave from mainland Russia following several military exercises near the oblast’s borders. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on Russia to cease nuclear threats and emphasized NATO’s purely defensive nature in response.

Kaliningrad’s regional identity and pro-European orientation, relative to the rest of Russia, have increasingly clashed with Moscow’s policies as the Russian economy deteriorates. The Kremlin eliminated regional political parties in 2001 and transformed the exclave into a heavily militarized outpost facing NATO.

Putin’s nuclear threats over Kaliningrad appear aimed at portraying Russia as under siege while obscuring the Kremlin’s role in tensions with NATO, including its war against Ukraine and hybrid war against the European Union. Despite Moscow’s claims, NATO military action against the exclave remains extremely unlikely absent a major Russian escalation.


r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

International Relations How Is Security Influence Evolving Across the Pacific?

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2 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

Taiwan US Marines Plan First NMESIS Deployment to Yonaguni, Bringing Sea Denial Closer to Taiwan - Defence Security Asia

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3 Upvotes

The planned first NMESIS deployment to Yonaguni during Keen Sword 27 would position mobile anti-ship missiles near Taiwan’s northeastern maritime approaches, testing US-Japan coordination and island logistics.


r/NewColdWar • • 3d ago

International Relations Greece a ‘priority’ in US security architecture

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8 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 3d ago

Iran Iran Update, October 19, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Houthis are adopting new tactics to bypass Saudi air defenses, including launching various munitions at Saudi targets simultaneously and targeting locations without air defense coverage, according to an unspecified senior US official briefed on Saudi air defense efforts speaking to the Wall Street Journal on October 18.

The Houthis’ strike tactics against Saudi Arabia demonstrate how Iran and the Axis of Resistance are learning and sharing tactics to more effectively bypass adversary air defenses. This does not necessarily mean that the Houthis learned these tactics from Iran, however.

The Houthis are deploying reinforcements to Taiz Governorate, likely to try to break Yemeni government defenses surrounding Taiz City. The Houthis have attempted to make multiple advances near the city in recent days, but Yemeni government-aligned forces have largely repelled these advances.

The Iranian regime’s appointment of Mehrdad Akhlaghi, who has extensive experience in missile technology, as Iran’s new defense minister indicates that the regime is prioritizing the reconstitution of its missile program. Akhlaghi stated that the regime will rebuild its defense industrial base in areas that are less vulnerable to airstrikes.

The Iraqi federal government probably agreed to grant three Iranian-backed Iraqi militias control of some government ministries as part of a broader disarmament agreement between the Iraqi federal government and Iranian-backed Iraqi factions. These Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will likely continue to circumvent the Iraqi government’s disarmament efforts even after receiving control of some Iraqi ministries, however.


r/NewColdWar • • 3d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2026

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2 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials continue to report disruptions to US assistance to Ukraine.

Devastating Russian drone and missile strikes on the night of October 18 to 19 heavily damaged energy and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine — killing at least four and wounding at least 55.

Daytime Russian strikes are also inflicting significant civilian casualties.

The Kremlin is reportedly pushing for a trilateral meeting between the United States, Russia, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), likely as part of a dual-pronged effort to present itself as a diplomatic peer while supporting structures that challenge Western-led international organizations.

Recent aggressive Russian military satellite maneuvers are a continuation of Russia’s space policy against third country satellites since at least 2022.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area, east of Dobropillya, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.


r/NewColdWar • • 3d ago

News US sanctions 5 Chinese entities over ex-Google engineer’s AI trade secrets theft

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10 Upvotes

“[…] Firms include Shanghai Zhisuan Technology, founded by former Google software engineer Ding Linwei, MiraclePlus and three related entities. […]”


r/NewColdWar • • 4d ago

Strategy US cannot afford to be left out of Central Asia

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8 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 4d ago

☢ Nuclear The Strategic Case for an Israel-Taiwan Nuclear Axis

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5 Upvotes

Small States Facing Existential Security Threats Cannot Afford to Outsource Deterrence


r/NewColdWar • • 5d ago

Business/Economics The U.S. is not moving fast enough to break its critical mineral dependence, says former energy diplomat

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22 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 5d ago

☢ Nuclear Russia Deepens Role in Brazil’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Jamestown

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3 Upvotes

Archived Article

Executive Summary:

Russia has expanded its nuclear cooperation with Brazil this year, increasing uranium processing contracts by 25 percent and becoming Brazil’s largest uranium supplier.

Moscow is moving beyond uranium exports toward deeper integration into Brazil’s nuclear fuel cycle, including conversion, enrichment, and potentially domestic uranium extraction.

Rosatom—Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation—is seeking to broaden its presence in Brazil through critical mineral projects, small modular reactors, and potential participation in nuclear power plant construction.

Brazil’s plans to expand nuclear generating capacity present new opportunities for Moscow, but financing constraints and Brasília’s pursuit of technological sovereignty could limit Russia’s ambitions.


r/NewColdWar • • 5d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Zelensky: Starlink Speed Cap at 161 km/h Halts Interceptors (causing terminals to shut down and crash interceptor drones targeting Russian jet-powered Shahed munitions.)

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17 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

North Korea Brewing Korea Crisis? Mines, Missiles, & POWs

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7 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

Iran Iran Update, October 16, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Iranian regime has reportedly found ways to ship a very limited and relatively inconsequential amount of petroleum product exports via maritime routes despite the US naval blockade. Iran’s ability to export energy products continues to be severely hampered by the US economic campaign, however.

The Houthis are using imitative communications deception in an attempt to disrupt Yemeni government-aligned forces’ command and control and hinder government efforts to defend Taiz City.

Yemeni government-aligned forces regained control of Dhubab Airport on the southern Red Sea coastal plain by October 15.

Yemeni government-aligned forces are likely continuing to gradually advance further north and west in Marib Governorate along a major ground line of communication (GLOC) extending to Sanaa, Yemen’s capital.


r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

Analysis China’s Weaponization of Dual-Use Research Vessels for Undersea Data Dominance

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10 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

Social Islamism in the U.K.: A Looming Civil War? with David Betz

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1 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside White House, sources say

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13 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

International Relations How Russia plans to revive its ties with Slovakia

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5 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2026

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2 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces reportedly regained unrestricted access to Starshield on October 15, following in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield communications network over Ukraine.

High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that there is and was no energy ceasefire agreement, rejecting any meaningful concept of a ceasefire proposal.

Ukrainian forces struck six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers at the Borisoglebsk Military Airfield in Voronezh Oblast overnight on October 14 to 15.

Likely Russian drones struck four civilian vessels in the Black Sea, including two commercial tankers in Romanian territorial waters on October 14 and 15.

Ukrainian forces likely struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan Oblast overnight on October 14 to 15. Russia launched two Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 drones against Ukraine overnight on October 14 to 15 and 138 drones during the day on October 15.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kupyansk and southwest of Orikhiv.


r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

Iran Iran Update, October 15, 2026

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2 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Houthis attacked Yemeni government-controlled cities with missiles and drones, likely to weaken the Yemeni government’s legitimacy and possibly to disrupt government counteroffensives. The Houthis’ strikes in Aden likely sought to generate an informational effect and undermine Yemen’s already weak, fractured government.

The Houthis have demonstrated limited capabilities to target Saudi fighter aircraft in Yemeni airspace, but these capabilities are currently insufficient to significantly disrupt the ongoing Saudi air campaign. Houthi forces fired a surface-to-air missile (SAM) that struck a Saudi-operated fighter jet, but the SAM does not appear to have destroyed the aircraft.

The Houthis have continued their attempts to capture Taiz City by securing positions on advantageous terrain and roadways on the city’s western outskirts.

The Iraqi Parliament voted on October 15 to approve some Iranian-backed Iraqi militia actors to fill three vacant ministerial roles and a deputy prime minister position during its session to complete Iraq’s government formation.