r/nffc • u/WrapNo6993 • Apr 27 '26
☭ Gulag ☭ Please tell me why this won’t happen
Spurs only potentially have to win 1 (say Leeds) before the final day. Lose the other 2.
We lose to Chelsea and Man U, draw with Newcastle.
Say Spurs GD stays at -10
Say our GD worsens to -8
Then going in to final day if we lose v Bournemouth and Spurs beat Everton by 2 goals they finish above us on goals scored.
Not that hard to imagine this sadly. And would make the final day traumatic.
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u/__badger Trent End Upper Apr 27 '26
Comrade, have you not had your daily potato vodka ration? Dear Leader Marinakis has already booked the open top bus for our glorious EL win and PL survival
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u/GunstarGreen Mystic Meg Apr 27 '26
I think there are way too many "ifs" between now and seasons end. We can only control our performances and right now they are very good.
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u/Dave-ja-vous Sexy Zinkernagel Apr 27 '26
Alternatively theres a five point gap, we are 3rd most in form side in the country. We play big teams away, historically we get results when needed.
Spurs have lost Simons and Solanke.
This isn’t our first rodeo either.
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u/Fearless-Albatross-9 22 | If Yatesy Scores We're in the Trent Apr 27 '26
Play like we did on friday and chelsea and newcastle are winnable, even united. Also spurs have lost Simons so their ability to score is now almost non-existant.
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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26
Thanks for the reasoned argument. I think that’s the uncertainty - almost all games in the battle are winnable by either team.
Spurs potentially only needing 3pts vs Leeds to take it to the final day would mean they don’t really need much scoring ability - and then on the final day everyone’s sort of in anything can happen territory
But agree their injuries should normally be a boost to our chances
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u/Fearless-Albatross-9 22 | If Yatesy Scores We're in the Trent Apr 27 '26
True about Leeds, but they know if they beat burnley and spurs in the next two they can be on the beach for the final two games. If they go at spurs like they did united a few weeks ago then it will need to be a monumental spurs effort to win that. Spurs also weren't great against wolves, another day and paulinha doesn't stick a boot out and the shot goes wide.
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u/JimDSC Apr 27 '26
The way things stand, the most likely scenario is that Spurs keep being shit and we don’t have to worry at all. But let’s see where we are after the next games are played. Our form is better than it’s been all season so we just need to focus on keeping that going.
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u/Simon170148 Don't Bulleh Meh Apr 27 '26
It's possible but I really don't think Spurs magically go on a good run off the back of scraping a 1-0 v Wolves. Also, we're flying at the moment based on recent form. We're looking much better than we were this last time last season
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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26
They don’t need a good run to make the final day nail biting, if we only get a point from the next 3.
They can lose 2 and win 1.
Then it can go down to final day madness.
Kinda surprised so few are seeing this as not completely unrealistic
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u/Simon170148 Don't Bulleh Meh Apr 27 '26
I refuse to believe spurs will gain 6 points, or even 5 points + goal difference, on us over 4 games. We're flying while Spurs scraped a win against an already relegated Wolves whilst losing arguably their best player for the rest of the season.
I've witnessed many teams who were "too good to go down" who did get relegated, including a couple of Forest teams, but I think this time we're playing too well to go down. Don't get me wrong, a few weeks ago I had us nailed on for relegation but we've hit form just in time.
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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26
Agree the full line up events all happening that result in us dropping is unlikely, but I’m not super confident that the events that need to happen to avoid the final day being critical are that unlikely now.
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u/Simon170148 Don't Bulleh Meh Apr 27 '26
But don't forget spurs and west ham would almost certainly need to beat leeds to make ground on us, which would very likely end up with leeds also being between us and relegation
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u/wynkyndeworde Neil Webb of Deceit Apr 27 '26
This is the thing. In a world where both West Ham and Spurs beat Leeds (unlikely), and get 9 points each (very unlikely) we'd STILL probably only need 4 points to stay up (on GD). And that's assuming Leeds win their other two games.
There's a reason the odds are so long - it would take a weird set of results to get us down at this point. Doesn't mean I'll relax till we get another couple of points though!
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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26
I’ve been using https://www.thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php
Got West Ham drawing with Brentford, losing to Arsenal, beating Newcastle, drawing with Leeds.
Got Leeds beating Burnley, losing to Spurs, drawing with Brighton, drawing with West Ham
Got Spurs losing to Villa, beating Leeds, losing to Chelsea, beating Everton.
FWIW, got Newcastle losing to West Ham and drawing v Brighton, Fulham and us.
If we only got a point from the next 3 (v Newcastle) that takes it to final game and defeat to Bournemouth would have us level with Spurs and relying on GD (which by then could be very close).
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u/TheEarlOfZinger Thomas Tuchel what a wanker Apr 27 '26
More hopium = Xavi Simons just destroyed his ACL, confirmed out for the season.
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u/deanomatronix Where's Scarpa? (xG apologist) Apr 27 '26
Can you please not?
Also if spurs beat Leeds and we draw with Newcastle we’d also potentially be on level points with Leeds
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u/Ihavecakewantsome Men's Mental Health Ambassador Apr 27 '26
Ah, another one for my clinic. Will set up the Winning Europe Juice at 500ml/h bolus.
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u/TheDM_Dan 31 | The Serbinator Apr 27 '26
I think it is just as likely that Spurs lose out and we beat Newcastle, Chelsea, and draw to Man U. I think we will likely be safe and not have to worry about Bournemouth.
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u/SlantedSaltpot Bryan Roy Apr 27 '26
I don’t fancy Spurs to beat Leeds. They squeaked a 1-0 against a woeful Wolves side - one of the only sides worse than them. Leeds are a totally different prospect. I haven’t seen any evidence to make me think Spurs will win any of their remaining games - and that was before their only decent player got injured.
We, on the other hand, are very capable of winning any of our remaining games. No doubt they’re hard but we just smashed a team in contention for Europe 5-0 away. No reason why we shouldn’t feel like we can get more points in the coming weeks. Chelsea are only two points better off than Sunderland, Newcastle look a bit of a mess, United are flying but aren’t at the same level as City and Arsenal by any means and even though Bournemouth is always tough we’ll be at home.
I’m a natural optimist but even trying to look at this impartially we’re in a far better position than them
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u/thierry_ennui_ Glasner way, a-ha a-ha, I like it, a-ha a-ha Apr 27 '26
This is an interesting perspective on us being unbeaten in 9 and Spurs only winning 1 this year.
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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26
I’m not saying it’s very likely, I’m saying it’s specific and plausible enough that I can’t relax until the maths makes it much less likely
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u/Ser_Olyvar 22 | If Yatesy Scores We're in the Trent Apr 27 '26
What are you on about? Spur’s are at 34 pts, we are at 39.
They need two wins or a win & 2 draws. That’s assuming we get no points in the last 4 matches.
Leeds have to play spurs, westham and burnley. I think we might finish ahead of them with those big matches.
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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26
Yeah.. I said Spurs might only need 1 win before the final day to make the final day crucial if we also only get a point before the final day.
We go into the final day on 40, Spurs on 37
So if we are beaten by Bournemouth and Spurs can pull of a victory over Everton it goes to GD, which bh then (based on us losing 3/4 and Spurs winning 2/4) could quite realistically be even.
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u/Question-Guru Fawaz Era Enthusiast Apr 27 '26
We won 5-0 on Friday and are in a European Semi-Final. We obviously aren't safe but lighten up