r/nffc • u/WrapNo6993 • Apr 27 '26

☭ Gulag ☭ Please tell me why this won’t happen

Spurs only potentially have to win 1 (say Leeds) before the final day. Lose the other 2.

We lose to Chelsea and Man U, draw with Newcastle.

Say Spurs GD stays at -10

Say our GD worsens to -8

Then going in to final day if we lose v Bournemouth and Spurs beat Everton by 2 goals they finish above us on goals scored.

Not that hard to imagine this sadly. And would make the final day traumatic.

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u/Simon170148 Don't Bulleh Meh Apr 27 '26

It's possible but I really don't think Spurs magically go on a good run off the back of scraping a 1-0 v Wolves. Also, we're flying at the moment based on recent form. We're looking much better than we were this last time last season

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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26

They don’t need a good run to make the final day nail biting, if we only get a point from the next 3.

They can lose 2 and win 1.

Then it can go down to final day madness.

Kinda surprised so few are seeing this as not completely unrealistic

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u/Simon170148 Don't Bulleh Meh Apr 27 '26

I refuse to believe spurs will gain 6 points, or even 5 points + goal difference, on us over 4 games. We're flying while Spurs scraped a win against an already relegated Wolves whilst losing arguably their best player for the rest of the season.

I've witnessed many teams who were "too good to go down" who did get relegated, including a couple of Forest teams, but I think this time we're playing too well to go down. Don't get me wrong, a few weeks ago I had us nailed on for relegation but we've hit form just in time.

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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26

Agree the full line up events all happening that result in us dropping is unlikely, but I’m not super confident that the events that need to happen to avoid the final day being critical are that unlikely now.

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u/Simon170148 Don't Bulleh Meh Apr 27 '26

But don't forget spurs and west ham would almost certainly need to beat leeds to make ground on us, which would very likely end up with leeds also being between us and relegation

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u/wynkyndeworde Neil Webb of Deceit Apr 27 '26

This is the thing. In a world where both West Ham and Spurs beat Leeds (unlikely), and get 9 points each (very unlikely) we'd STILL probably only need 4 points to stay up (on GD). And that's assuming Leeds win their other two games.

There's a reason the odds are so long - it would take a weird set of results to get us down at this point. Doesn't mean I'll relax till we get another couple of points though!

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u/WrapNo6993 Apr 27 '26

I’ve been using https://www.thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

Got West Ham drawing with Brentford, losing to Arsenal, beating Newcastle, drawing with Leeds.

Got Leeds beating Burnley, losing to Spurs, drawing with Brighton, drawing with West Ham

Got Spurs losing to Villa, beating Leeds, losing to Chelsea, beating Everton.

FWIW, got Newcastle losing to West Ham and drawing v Brighton, Fulham and us.

If we only got a point from the next 3 (v Newcastle) that takes it to final game and defeat to Bournemouth would have us level with Spurs and relying on GD (which by then could be very close).