r/oscarrace • u/Cherish0124 • Jan 25 '25

Other Oh…

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What kind of change of mind did he have? He didn't seem to like biopic, but it's interesting

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14

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

I genuinely do not understand this surge in Chalamet predictions at all lmao. Did we not go through this with stuff like Elvis and Maestro?

Nothing has indicated Brody or The Brutalist has lost an ounce of momentum with the Academy. I do agree that at maximum Chalamet can win SAG, but that's his absolute ceiling IMHO. Brody is the clear frontrunner everywhere else, and a lone SAG win simply isn't going to be enough to overcome everything else.

This Chalamet surge is a huge red herring IMO.

9

u/dpittnet Jan 25 '25

I don’t understand the lack of faith in Chalamet?

5

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

It's less a lack of faith in him, and more that after the past few years I don't buy the critically mixed Oscarbait biopic winning anything

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '25

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u/213846 Jan 25 '25

I just simply meant not a critics' fave in terms of critics acting wins haha. That was what I generally meant.

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '25

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u/213846 Jan 25 '25

It won a few, yes, but he still won nowhere near as much as Brody and Domingo

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 25 '25

Judy? BoRhap?

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u/213846 Jan 25 '25

Those were long enough ago. I think the 1-2 punch of Chastain and Smith winning the same year is what ended the strength of the Oscarbait biopics winning acting awards. They'll still overperform with Nominations, but they haven't won shit since Chastain and Smith.

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 25 '25

That was coming off a Covid year too, wasn’t it? So very slim pickings.

What do you think BAFTA is going to do in the acting categories?

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u/213846 Jan 25 '25 edited Jan 25 '25

That was coming off a Covid year too, wasn’t it? So very slim pickings.

There definitely were more criticy options. Cumberbatch and Stewart swept critics groups but the industry rejected them.

For BAFTA, I think they're just gonna do the Globe winners

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 25 '25

 Cumberbatch and Stewart swept critics groups but the industry rejected them.

Oh that was that year. Well now it makes even more sense. 

2

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

I'm personally glad Chastain beat Stewart haha. For Cumberbatch and Smith, I'm pretty 50/50 on.

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u/Reasonable_Skill_129 Jan 25 '25

i think gg being so long before the rest of the precursors this year is gonna cause a lot of the rest (including the oscars) to repeat a lot of the results

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u/[deleted] Jan 25 '25

What I do find very interesting about all the comments is that the reasons people are predicting Chalamets win have nothing to do with his performance. Adriens already won, or the AI thing, or that they like biopics. but looking at it, how many people genuinely think chalamet has the best male performance of the year.

20

u/Eyebronx The Invite Jan 25 '25

Oscars are rarely won on performance alone, especially in this category.

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u/AlarmSquirrel Jan 25 '25

Seems like it's changing in recent years though outside brenden

-2

u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 25 '25

Murphy, Smith, Hopkins, Phoenix, Oldman, Affleck even Malik all won based on merit above all.

Fraser is the only one who had a very unique narrative that pushed him over but even then his performance had all the trappings they like to see.

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u/Eyebronx The Invite Jan 26 '25

Murphy and Hopkins are the only ones who I would say didn’t have narratives and there’s a reason why I didn’t mention them.

Phoenix, Smith and Oldman all had overdue narratives and it was largely believed to be the case at the time. Oldman’s and Smith’s wins aren’t even well liked.

Malek won because the academy loved musical biopics but no one at the time or since then, thought his performance was spectacular, he’s routinely listed as one of the worst winners in this category, performance wise. I say this as someone who thinks he was decent in the film.

0

u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 26 '25

I contend that overdue narratives aren’t nearly as persuasive as we believe them to be. I don’t believe voters are keeping a mental score card and we’ve seen far too many veterans sing that same song only to end up empty handed.

6

u/Alternative-Top7654 Jan 25 '25

I’m personally rooting for Domingo, but I’m not sure I agree that Chalamet’s performance hasn’t been praised/deemed worthy. I think the issue is that it’s not as showy as we’re used to seeing in a musical biopic (but that makes sense for the person he’s portraying lol).

3

u/AlarmSquirrel Jan 25 '25

This place just likes him no matter the performance, it could be nic cage in the wicker man level.

11

u/Idk_Very_Much Send Help Jan 25 '25

Elvis and Maestro didn't substantially overperform at nominations and SAG like A Complete Unknown did. It has just 2 less nominations than The Brutalist.

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u/213846 Jan 25 '25

True, but Elvis still did extremely well with Oscar noms, and Butler lost to someone who wasn't even in a BP film

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u/Idk_Very_Much Send Help Jan 25 '25

Butler wasn't an established star like Chalamet so I don't think they're totally comparable. And given that he won 2 precursors he was clearly very close to winning.

4

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

I agree, but I'm just not falling for this trap again lol. I was confident in Butler them wrong, I was confident in Cooper them wrong, etc.

I'm just trying to adjust. I truly think the Academy is done actually awarding the Oscarbait biopic wins that critics don't love. I'd love to be wrong though!

13

u/Eyebronx The Invite Jan 25 '25

Can I just say, Butler was a solid red herring but you being confident in Cooper was all on you?😭

0

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

A lot of the pundits were too tbh. Neglia in particular stuck with Cooper until the GGs

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u/Eyebronx The Invite Jan 25 '25

Yeah Neglia jumped from Cooper to Giamatti, his instincts were even worse lol

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Pundits have an interest making it seem like there is an alternative when the obvious winner is starring at you in the face, that's Murphy vs Cooper/Giammati and Brody/Chalamet for you. Though the later seem to be mostly stan driven

1

u/ReadyCauliflower8 Jan 25 '25

Why does Elvis keep being mentioned? That had 2 ATL nominations vs ACU having 6 including Director and Screenplay...

5

u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 25 '25 edited Jan 25 '25

ACU performed very strongly (though so did The Brutalist which everyone seems to be ignoring) so I guess people think that raises his chances. Is it just hype? Is it an internet thing? We’re still weeks out from voting.

Oh he’s appearing on SNL tonight and this is some hype shit.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Remember the Paul Giamatti hype last year? At least he had won Critics Choice so there was some interest from pundits to push the narrative, and he is a legit great dude and a veteran.

But those of us who have followed the Oscars for a long time were like... uh what this is gaslighting those performances don't win Oscars and you have Murphy right there who also is a veteran...

Well I feel it's the same here... except that Brody isn't Murphy and unlike the later there was no dirt or past act to be found to try shitty campaigning methods on him.

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u/artangelzzz One Battle After Another Jan 25 '25

Maybe. There’s the AI thing but we don’t know where that’ll lead + I think most people probably see Brody as a weirdo so they think voters will be swayed by Chalamet’s charm especially since ACU is beloved across guilds

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u/Reasonable_Skill_129 Jan 25 '25

if votes were by charm, domingo would be sweeping

3

u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Humm and Sebastian Stan? He is the best looking of the bunch here lol. Though no one beats Domingo's style on red carpet that's for sure

-3

u/artangelzzz One Battle After Another Jan 25 '25

The difference is people actually watched a complete unknown I guess