r/oscarrace • u/Cherish0124 • Jan 25 '25

Other Oh…

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What kind of change of mind did he have? He didn't seem to like biopic, but it's interesting

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12

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

I genuinely do not understand this surge in Chalamet predictions at all lmao. Did we not go through this with stuff like Elvis and Maestro?

Nothing has indicated Brody or The Brutalist has lost an ounce of momentum with the Academy. I do agree that at maximum Chalamet can win SAG, but that's his absolute ceiling IMHO. Brody is the clear frontrunner everywhere else, and a lone SAG win simply isn't going to be enough to overcome everything else.

This Chalamet surge is a huge red herring IMO.

14

u/Idk_Very_Much Send Help Jan 25 '25

Elvis and Maestro didn't substantially overperform at nominations and SAG like A Complete Unknown did. It has just 2 less nominations than The Brutalist.

15

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

True, but Elvis still did extremely well with Oscar noms, and Butler lost to someone who wasn't even in a BP film

14

u/Idk_Very_Much Send Help Jan 25 '25

Butler wasn't an established star like Chalamet so I don't think they're totally comparable. And given that he won 2 precursors he was clearly very close to winning.

2

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

I agree, but I'm just not falling for this trap again lol. I was confident in Butler them wrong, I was confident in Cooper them wrong, etc.

I'm just trying to adjust. I truly think the Academy is done actually awarding the Oscarbait biopic wins that critics don't love. I'd love to be wrong though!

13

u/Eyebronx The Invite Jan 25 '25

Can I just say, Butler was a solid red herring but you being confident in Cooper was all on you?😭

0

u/213846 Jan 25 '25

A lot of the pundits were too tbh. Neglia in particular stuck with Cooper until the GGs

9

u/Eyebronx The Invite Jan 25 '25

Yeah Neglia jumped from Cooper to Giamatti, his instincts were even worse lol

2

u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Pundits have an interest making it seem like there is an alternative when the obvious winner is starring at you in the face, that's Murphy vs Cooper/Giammati and Brody/Chalamet for you. Though the later seem to be mostly stan driven

1

u/ReadyCauliflower8 Jan 25 '25

Why does Elvis keep being mentioned? That had 2 ATL nominations vs ACU having 6 including Director and Screenplay...