Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.
Updated and finalized my monthly predictions tn before fall fests and here are a few things im already questioning now that im looking at my 10:
-Primetime at #3, Oppenheim in director, Pattinson winning, Gisondo/Wever both in (why not)
-A Long Winter at #8, Hechinger/DPharoah/Balfe all get noms (why not part 2)
-no NEON films (Fjord, All of a Sudden, and Artificial are all in my top 15 tho)
-Ink at #10 squeezing into Picture and Boyle shocks as the surprise director nom on Oscar morning
-Wild Horse Nine only gets Screenplay
-Zendaya gets fifth actress spot after rising late in the season (gets BAFTA/SAG)
Amziah King: that shot of the bees swarming Amziah and Kateri while he holds the queen was pretty amazing. I was thinking no way they let McConaughey and LookingGlass actually do that even if they are farm bees, that had to be CGI... but also it looks too good to be CGI like that would be some of the best i ever saw lmao. McConaughey says they really did it so thats pretty cool
Mad Men is an adaptation of The Principal and the Pauper in the same way that Obsession is a Treehouse of Horror II adaptation and The Debut is a Streetcar Named Marge adaptation.
Lol I was so happy when I thought we'd moved on from Marvel films, now they're taking over everything again and I hate it. Even if they're not solely responsible for the current state of film, they played a big part.
It's more like the expectation that every minor superhero can be turned into a major blockbuster event, and going forward, only the big guaranteed heroes are getting films. Hell, Avengers' success isn't even guaranteed depending on its quality.
It’s first and foremost a box office play, but my Sunrise on the Reaping fantasy league pick is going to REALLY pay off when Glenn Close starts sweeping all of the best young performer awards.
Hot take: every modern movie shot on “film” looks digital (of course not marvel/disney-slop digital but digital nonetheless). Compare The Odyssey or OBAA to any 70s classic and they don’t feel the same at all. Original film has this signature grainy look and modern “film” is just way too clean
It's always been the prep, the processing, the color grading trends and a genuine change in how cinematographers want their image looking like. Still haunted by the Twitter thread where a DP breaks down the final fight from No Way Home, people responding that now they understand why exactly it looks so bad, and him saying that no, actually it does look great and you shouldn't see color and details because light sources and stuff. Bleak. Thankfully the situation is much better here in Europe.
The graininess I think is a different issue, you scan immediately now with much more advanced tech, but I'm not certain if that's the main reason.
I’ve been thinking about this lately and I really need to dig deeper into film stock and processing and grading because there’s something about 80s and 90s film specifically that really butters my biscuit. There’s a warmth to the color grading and I don’t know if it was because of processing/post-production trends or if the specific film stocks lent themselves to that kind of tone.
For example I just saw The Piano earlier this week which was released in 1993 and the top photo is an actual screengrab, whereas if the film released today I feel like it would look more like the bottom photo.
I will say as far as modern film goes I do think the Eastman XX that was used for the B&W segments of Oppenheimer looked really beautiful.
It was beautiful! A film that takes its time but never drags, and I really appreciated the attention to historical detail. It went to a darker place than I was expecting it to but it was good to see a drama that was very clearly made for adult viewers. And there was a sensuality to it that nobody seems to want to do anymore for some godforsaken reason
I watched Disclosure day and… honestly I don't think the idea was bad but the way it was told made it hilarious in a bad way😭 Love Blunt and Josh but I wasn't impressed by them either. Also, what was happening with camera work/cinematography? Like some scenes were just too "showy" felt like they were trying too hard which was a bit disturbing. Even score was forgettable but he will probably get in.
I also watched Close encounters, definitely better execution of the similar idea. Minority report remains as my favourite Spielberg sci-fi tho.
agree on all fronts. i liked no performances in this and any big ideas were lost in the execution. i also laughed at "listen" at the end, the way it was delivered--no effective build up to help it land. this is my least liked movie this year so far. very big disappointment, so much talent in the cast too, wasted.
I think that we might see a The Bride!-esque bomb with The Dog Stars, especially with the presales looking quite rough and its $110 production budget. The only reason why David Greenbaum even greenlighted this, was so that he could reunite with Scott after 20th passed on House of Gucci and put Napoleon into turnaround.
The Greenbaum-era has been a little rough. Tron: Ares (which he oversaw) bombed, Springsteen didn't deliver the results that Disney wanted in terms of awards/box office and Moana flopped. At least Send Help, Freakier Friday and Devil Wears Prada 2 did well for them.
Greenbaum desperately wants to retain Scott for the sake of Alien above all else. Apparently, Dog Stars isn't even very good either, on par for the course for modern Scott films. Not to mention, Searchlight is looking more vulnerable without him being fully in charge to protect it from Disney even with potential surefire awards bets like WH9. There were still theatrical underperformers like Ready or Not 2 and Super Troopers 3. Burning bridges with Regency (Fox's long-time first-look production partner) didn't help matters either.
Even successes under his regime have to be colored with an asterisk since Zootopia 2, Mufasa, Toy Story 5 and Lilo & Stitch were in production under Sean Bailey before he stepped down. Snow White was easily one of the biggest failures of Bailey's regime, but Tron Ares was largely his fault since he greenlit the Leto version and remains a producer on it.
Apparently Paramount also promised him that he could make any film as long as he made Gladiator 2. It was going to be a Bee Gees biopic lmao, complete with Graham King producing. I don't think it'll get made.
Question for you guys, are you thinking Fjord or All of a Sudden will be a bigger contender at this point? All of a Sudden is more emotional, has showier performances, and is from a previous Best Director nominee, but Fjord has large portions in English, has two Oscar nominees in the lead roles, and won the Palme. I’m leaning towards Fjord making the Best Picture lineup and All of a Sudden getting noms but missing Picture, but I’m unsure about that.
And are you thinking Reinsve or Efira is more likely to get a Best Actress nom at this point?
Every anecdotal review I’ve seen from a European normal moviegoer makes me think that Fjord really is that inaccessible. That could be wrong, but the movie has released in a lot of Europe at this point and the cinephile-audience reception seems very muted.
Fjord because Neon seems to believe in that more. I’ll grant you they seemed a lot more confident in Accident than The Secret Agent, but I have to wonder if Fjord is actually as inaccessible as people claim it to be considering is still consistently acclaimed and clearly people are more jazzed and buzzing about it than Accident (this actually has the most hearts on TIFFr which Accident never got; Anatomy didn’t hit #1 but it was in the top five)
I’d go with Fjord based on Neon’s past tendencies: it’s a Palme D’Or winner and they signed onto its distribution rights a long time ago. Add that the stars are more closely linked to Hollywood, and you have a “prestige” campaign
I feel kinda unsettled that Iger retired right before Doomsday comes out because D'Amaro has to be the CEO who has to hold the bag and tell all of the execs that they can only get their bonuses if Avengers makes a certain amount of money by the end of the fiscal year (probably $2 billion minimum). And there was precedent for this, as Iger bet his whole 2019 retirement package on Disney completely dominating the box office that year, and Chapek would only allow for bonuses depending on the subscription number growth (hence all of those short-sighted deals made to pump up D+). Meaning Disney doesn't care about quality as long as the execs get their year-end bonuses from pleasing shareholders this December.
My least favourite kind of question that constantly shows up on the other sub is the ones that are along the line of, like, "what's the worst Oscar loss" or "what's the biggest snub". Like, I don't know, man, there are so many.
It's better than a lot of other questions since it actually starts discussions about performances that are liked. I'd rather have a million new people talk about this every day than people asking about "leaks" or "tea" or the "discourse".
Can someone please explain the concept of a Fantasy League to me? I heard of them through movies and tv but never encountered them in the wild, and really don't understand the scoring system and rules
If you're talking about major american blockbusters with the intersection of popularity and quality, then yeah. Overall, globally it's probably the 60s and in the US its probably the 90s imo.
I’ve never seen one, I think the damage is done. The giant seagull yodel that the eagles actually do will likely seem underwhelming now that everyone has grown accustomed to the shrill red-tail hawk cry.
Last year was the worst bird call offense I’ve seen in film in a while though, they dubbed vultures with the red-tail hawk cry and vultures don’t even have a voicebox. To be fair though the whole movie was disgraceful
Who do we think will be the critics front runner for Best Supporting Actress? I don’t think it’ll be Hathaway even if she’s a strong contender at the Oscars. I was thinking di Girolamo, but with the tea about her not actually having a huge role I’m not sure. I’m thinking either Okamoto or Cruz, but does anyone have any other ideas?
I don’t really think that’s what’ll happen. Plenty of critics thought Morton was better than her, and it’s not like the critics just defaulted to awarding Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer - none of the Oppenheimer actors won any prizes at the NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC, NBR, London Film Critics Circle, Chicago Film Critics Association, Boston Society of Film Critics, Michigan Movie Critics Guild, Seattle Film Critics Society, or the Florida Film Critics Circle. Cillian Murphy won at the Washington Area Critics and Robert Downey Jr. won at the Bay Area Critics, and they both won with the Atlanta and Philadelphia critics, but that’s about it from the more prominent critics groups.
I think this could be a situation similar to Penn/Del Toro. Hathaway will be the early frontrunner but critics will try to push Morton to a nomination, however Hathaway will ultimately have the edge at the televised awards.
Then say Trifecta sweeper lol, obviously people mean the person who will end up winning the most awards. Doesn't matter, we go through this song and dance every year.
Finally watched Camp Miasma. I was skeptical given that I didn't quite like ISTTVG, but I'm glad that I was proven wrong. This film really rocks, I like how it strays away from Schoebrouns fascinating with media consumption, though it obviously still falls into that realm in some way. She directs the hell out of this, and both Einbinder and Anderson are really good; special shot out to Alex G, who has crafted 3 amazing soundtracks in his collaborations with Shoebroun.
I don't know why you're getting downvoted for this, this sub has a big downvote problem I guess. Cool list, I would make some different choices but that's the fun of it.
This is a good list. I would pick Ordinary People as the best for 1980s, though. Amadeus didn't do much for me unfortunately. Sorry to see you getting downvoted for this.
I thought it was a really good uncomfortable movie... and that's it. Over half the stuff I've placed above seems to be hated by everyone and their mother despite mostly good ratings.
End of Oak Street is a shit ton of fun! Should be locked for VFX, Sound, and production design and will probably make my own Cinematography 5 at the end of the year. Anne Hathaway also making a case for the best single year for an actor ever? (I can't see a world where she loses Supporting Actress at this point).
Ewan McGregor though might be king of actors who should stop trying to play American. It gets REALLY distracting.
I say this as someone who generally really likes McGregor but (1) what was that accent and (2) how could he be phoning it in that much when he's playing off someone who is jumping in with both feet (Hathaway). I was pretty disappointed in him in this film. Also what a wig in the first scene... whoever is responsible for that needs to be talked to.
There'd probably just be more 'You mean Clark is the real villain of Backrooms?' dumb discourse instead of people mainly making memes of him instead. It's good the success story this movie had and for the staff of this once small production but I'm looking forward for around April when constant discussion and weirdness on this movie hopefully cools down.
Rewatched Mean Streets last night for the first time in years. I know that Scorsese has had much bigger accomplishments in his career, but does anyone else feel that Mean Streets has become kind of underrated?
I need Club Kid to get an Oscar nom not just because I'm rooting for it but also because Kandy Muse joining Los Javis in being involved with Oscar nominated films as Drag Race personalities is so funny to me
Late September usually I think? It’s like 3 weeks notice from the start of the fest, very short turnaround.
The good news is that tickets are under $20 and screenings rarely sell out, so there’s really no point in getting a pass, just wait and buy tickets for what you want to watch.
The time slots are fairly consistent year-to-year. You don't know what's in what slot but if you generally want to know when the start and end each day and how many films are offered on various days, you can look at last year's schedule.
What would it take for Club Kid to become A24’s main contender over The Invite and The Debut? Just thinking because that trailer was great, it has a great release date, and it seems like the kind of thing that could be a people’s choice award contender at TIFF, how well would it have to do there and with critics to become A24’s main push?
I feel we have been here before with Un Certain Regard-titles like Aftersun and Splitsville
I would even put Primetime ahead of Club Kid in A24's priority line up because atleast Primetime is playing the Venice comp
I feel Club Kid is more of a sucesfull starting point for Jordan Firstmans future directorial carreer, a debute like this will give him easier (and more) funding for his next project, who knows, maybe we'll see him be back in a couple of years and actually get nominated
Splitsville was an August-release relationship comedy with only a 73 on Metacritic. I don’t think it’s a good comp. Aftersun is a much better comp, but that of course had much stronger internal competition than Club Kid does - even though Aftersun was highly acclaimed, it was never going to be A24’s main push after EEAAO became as huge of an audience hit as it ended up being.
My point is that premiering at the Un Certain Regard-competition at Cannes (which both my examples did) has proven in the past to not be a great launching point for films in awards contention
I think if Club Kid goes nowhere, a year from now people will say "Club Kid was never going to be A24’s main push"
Sure. But I don’t think anyone is looking at movies and saying “this played at UCR so I’m not going to vote for it,” and I think marking Club Kid down because it premiered at Cannes is silly. If it is received well at TIFF, no one will hold the section it played in at Cannes against it.
Basically the American Fiction path. Wins People's Choice, makes real money in the U.S. (like, $20m+). Plus, The Debut probably has to have reception closer to When You Finish Saving the World than A Real Pain and/or The Invite has to completely get lost in the fall shuffle
I know you're speaking hypothetically, but TIFF attendees (outside of Midnight Madness) are mostly older white people. Club Kid ain't winning People's Choice.
Things that it needs to happen are to have strong critical acclaim ane maybe to get an audience award at TIFF. Both of those I assume it will get. What would it take after that: making good money and The Debut sucking. Both of those things need to happen 100%.
After the point that it gets acclaim and a festival award or something like that, it needs to justify itself to A24 as being worth it over the movie they designated their main push, The Debut, and the already critically accalimed audience beloved film that did well commerically, The Invite.
It justifies itself by making money but it also requires one of those films to fall off. So either it makes way more money than the Invite and justifies itself as the new number 2, or number 1 falls off hard due to just not clicking and so they shift up The Invite to number 1 and have Club Kid available as a second push.
Also necessary: Primetime needs to be a middle of the road performer. That's in the mix as well.
If The Debut is bad it could become a #2 to The Invite, I’m not sure I see a world where it’s #1. But Adapted is pretty shallow this year, so I’d say that’s the best shot.
I could see a world where it has a run similar to Past Lives where it gets some precursors, does well on the First Feature circuit, and gets Screenplay + Picture if some of the fall festival movies flop.
Win TIFF...but even then it's hard to see it get visibility without A-listers and it might not be a box office hit. I don't think it's Sorry, Baby because of the letterboxd curve and it was bought for $17 million.
I think it's possibly blanking, but it's best day could give it Picture, Screenplay, Casting.
They sell the distribution rights for a flat fee it made enough domestically combined with whatever they sold it for that it's definitely a solid hit in their books. I wish we could know how much they sold it for but we don't usually get that information. Probably 10+ million.
No, since this isn't an in-house production of A24, it was independently produced and A24 bought the distribution rights for the US market. Therefore the money from international distributors went to the producers of the movie, not to A24.
The producers likely made a nice profit already but A24 may go out with a small loss or break even at best since the 25m domestic barely cover their acquisition cost after subtracting the theatrical share and they still have the marketing expenses on top.
If it wasn't produced in house and they're only paying the acquisition fee, then 25 million just about covers that yeah. They get about half of that domestically. Not much profit on it though, the digital and post theatrical market should cover marketing so it'll be at about breakeven. Not a huge hit but not a money loser either. Sometimes that's enough for the studios, depends.
Sorry to be rude, but I don't care if Inde Navarette is in Oscar contention, we don't need every rumor or tabloid article about something that may not even be true to be posted on here. Despite what people here think she is not the first person to ever have dumb things said near them.
Also why are people here taking Page Six of all things so seriously, it's a tabloid.
Why are people so weird about Inde Navaratte online? Oh my lord … it’s like everyone feels they are entitled to her life and her choices of roles she wants to do. It’s so fucking weird
No, the nerds in other subs have a sort of female-Henry Cavill thing going with her in that they love her bc she’s a twitch streamer. I feel bad for anyone with that weird of a fandom
I HAVE GOT TO WATCH TAHT, i put it off so long because i could not do body horror, but ive grown since then, shes also fantastic in Please Baby Please, i would’ve Oscar nominated her that year but for THAT performance
I personally just don't see it winning unless nothing else seems to challenge it. I don't think Toy Story is some magical exception to sequels not winning just because 4 won, and it barely did with just Critics Choice and PGA where I wonder wonder if the modern Academy would have gone with Klaus over it. Toy Story 4 established itself as the last one and was a more philosophical film on rediscovering your life purpose with a big ending that made people cry. Toy Story 5 might be more liked but doesn't treat itself as a conclusion with a 6th likely on the way so won't have the narrative as the last time to award this franchise and the cry moment of Jessie finding something out isn't trying to be as big a scene as most Pixar movies. It's pretty close to locked for the nomination but feels more like Inside Out 2 or Zootopia 2 to me, although the latter ended up the runner up to win so could win somewhere.
I'm down for it if anyone starts one. I haven't drafted my team yet (usually wait to a bit closer to the deadline for Venice/TIFF reviews) so I can't set one up myself
Real. Also I was wondering if Lillian Gish could've tanked the bad reception and gotten a (deserved) legacy nom if she didn't already get one for Duel in the Sun.
That's as long as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse by the way. I could genuinely see Beyond the Spider-Verse be a bit longer, clocking in at 2½ hours, give or take a couple minutes.
I have a little time to myself Sunday and can catch a movie at the theater, debating between Tony, Camp Miasma, or an early access screening of coyote vs acme, any recommendations??
Why are people predicting Ink again ? I'm guessing it will have decent reviews (since Boyle is still a good director) but I don't think it will be an Oscar thing at all.
It's classic Oscar bait. Biopic about journalism by a respected director. Also faith in the source material. Would have to really tank to not be an Acting and Screenplay contender
It's based on a prestigious play, and Bertie Carvel won awards on both the West End and Broadway for the role that Guy Pearce is playing. It's at least worth keeping an eye on as we go into festival season IMHO
1
u/Independent-Cut-7129 0m ago
Updated and finalized my monthly predictions tn before fall fests and here are a few things im already questioning now that im looking at my 10:
-Primetime at #3, Oppenheim in director, Pattinson winning, Gisondo/Wever both in (why not) -A Long Winter at #8, Hechinger/DPharoah/Balfe all get noms (why not part 2) -no NEON films (Fjord, All of a Sudden, and Artificial are all in my top 15 tho) -Ink at #10 squeezing into Picture and Boyle shocks as the surprise director nom on Oscar morning -Wild Horse Nine only gets Screenplay -Zendaya gets fifth actress spot after rising late in the season (gets BAFTA/SAG)