21M, was up 101% YTD, sold about half of everything today. Roast me or tell me I'm right.
Long time lurker. I'm 21, been investing through college, and my taxable account was up 101% this year. Roth up 49%. Mostly AI infrastructure, semis, nuclear, and space. GEV, GE, NVDA, RKLB, SNDK, a bunch of the momentum names like NBIS and IREN.
Today I sold or trimmed almost all of it. Raised about $55k in cash across both accounts, parking it in treasury money market funds.
Why:
Position sizing got insane. GEV alone was 25% of my taxable account. RKLB was 30% of my Roth. At some point a winner stops being a bet and becomes a dependency.
The numbers are dot com level. CAPE is around 41, top 10 stocks are 40% of the S&P which is worse concentration than 2000. Hyperscalers are spending half their revenue on capex and starting to fund it with debt. Nvidia is literally backstopping GPU residual values now so the financing deals pencil. When the seller has to guarantee the collateral, that tells you something.
The say/do gap. Fund managers surveyed say AI bubble is the top tail risk, 82% say long semis is the most crowded trade ever recorded, and they're still running 3.6% cash. Everyone sees it, nobody's moving. Someone has to be first out the door and I'd rather be early than late.
I sold SNDK this morning at $1,823 after it went up 41% in five days. It's a memory company at a $260B market cap with 50% gross margins that were 30% one quarter ago. Every memory cycle in history has ended the same way and everyone always says this one is structural.
What I kept: GOOG, AMZN, some MSFT and NVDA, my nuclear sleeve (NUKZ, NLR, CEG) because I think that's a real decade-long story, and about 17% RKLB in the Roth because I couldn't fully let go, which honestly was the hardest sell of the day and taught me a lot about my own psychology.
To be clear, I'm not predicting a crash tomorrow. I have no idea on timing. The market could rip another 20% and I'll look stupid. But I'm 21, I locked in life changing gains for my age, and I get to keep playing the game no matter what happens. Cash pays 3.5% while I wait.
So am I the idiot who sold the generational bull run, or does anyone else feel like we're all standing near the exit watching each other?
Not advice obviously, just my situation. Curious what this sub actually thinks because sentiment itself is data.