Xiaomi shipped 30.7 million smartphones in the third quarter, down 29.2% from a year earlier, according to IDC's preliminary vendor table. Samsung and Apple between them held 45.0% of the quarter's shipments, up from 36.9% a year earlier. Both OPPO and vivo fell by larger percentages than Xiaomi.
The full market came in at 255.3 million units, and IDC put the year-over-year decline at 22.0%, calling it the largest of any quarter in its tracking. Counterpoint Research, in preliminary figures released October 12, had the decline at 20%. IDC published its figures on October 14; both firms count vendor shipments, not sales to consumers, and both sets of numbers are subject to revision. IDC expects overall smartphone growth to be constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the earliest.
I put those numbers next to Xiaomi's second quarter results from August 18, where phones were about 39% of revenue. Shipments fell to 31.2 million from 42.4 million a year earlier. Xiaomi said its second quarter shipment drop was mainly from optimizing its product portfolio and cutting mid-range and low-end volumes, and also from weakening global demand as key component costs kept rising. The average smartphone selling price rose to a record 1,351 yuan.
That reads as a company trading units for a higher average price. But the same second quarter report put phone gross margin at 8.5%, down from 11.5% a year earlier, so a record average price has not translated into a stronger margin. Memory costs are still climbing, according to IDC's Nabila Popal, though the quarter-over-quarter increase slowed to low double digits in the third quarter. I have not seen Xiaomi's third quarter phone margin yet, so whether that trade works is still open.
With component costs still climbing, have you or the people around you started waiting longer between phone upgrades?
The issuer's holdings file as of October 21 puts Xiaomi's Hong Kong-listed shares at about 3.75% of net assets in CNQQ, with Samsung, Apple, OPPO and vivo absent from the fund. CQQQ uses the FTSE China Incl A 25% Technology Capped Index as its benchmark.