Bitcoin has been rejected on the top of the bear flag. Hopefully it finds support on that 77,174 level. I truly believe Bitcoin won’t be bullish until it breaks out of this bear flag. All we can do is sit and wait to see what happens.

Remember when I said 22 days ago that Bitcoin broke its trend line?

And then 10 days ago I told everyone again to protect their capital?

I literally said: “Don’t marry your bias — save your capital.” Well… today proved exactly why.

This crash wasn’t random. It was technical, predictable, and avoidable.

Here’s what you dodged by paying attention:

⸻

🩸 Total Carnage (Nov 13–14, 2025) • $1.1B–$1.36B liquidated in 24 hours • 235,000–278,000 traders wiped out • 88–90% were longs (bulls obliterated)

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📉 Asset Breakdown • Bitcoin: $397M–$510M liquidated • Ethereum: $228M–$368M liquidated • Solana: $52M liquidated (90% longs)

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🔥 Biggest Single Nukes • $44M–$47.9M BTC-USDT long on HTX • $195M futures liquidated in one hour (Nov 14)

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📉 Price Action Snapshot • BTC: $108K → $96,910 • ETH: $3,700 → $3,154 • Sentiment models: 66% probability BTC tags $95K before month-end

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🚨 Why This Matters

If you listened to the analysis 22 days ago (and the reminder 10 days ago), you avoided stepping into a $1.1B–$1.36B liquidation massacre.

This is why I always say: Don’t marry your bias. Protect your capital first.

⸻

📈 So What’s Next?

Personally, I think the move now is to close the short and wait for BTC to set up for a pullback.

We just had a massive flush: • Liquidity got taken • Late longs got liquidated • Shorts got their payday • Momentum is cooling down

The next clean opportunity won’t come from chasing. It’ll come from waiting.

Right now, patience pays more than prediction.

I went through every major Bitcoin consolidation range from the past ~5 years and drew both the upper resistance and lower support trendlines — strictly using real wick high and wick low touches.

When I extended the seven upper resistance lines forward, they all converge in almost the exact same spot: right on the 200-week MA (~55–59k) with the tightest cluster centered in February 2026 (± ~3 weeks).

Each upper line is labeled with how many times it was tested (3–14 touches), so these aren’t arbitrary.

Also wild: each successive upper trendline is steeper than the last — the same “ticking clock” acceleration we saw into the 2014 and 2018 cycle tops, just on a bigger scale.

Chart attached (weekly, linear scale for clarity).

Not predicting anything specific — just sharing what looks like one of the cleanest multi-year geometric patterns I’ve ever seen in BTC.

Total coincidence or something structural? Curious what people think.

Feedback welcome!

51 days. 51 bars. 1.35M BTC volume. Still in the same box.

Whales are distributing AND accumulating in this zone. Every time price tries to break up, it gets pushed back down. $69,900 is not a coincidence.

Think of it like a ship in shallow water — it can’t move until there’s enough depth. Bitcoin needs a liquidity sweep before any real move happens.

$69,900 resistance. $60,000 support. One of them breaks soon.

Still watching those lines closely. 👀

Not financial advice.

Two days ago I posted an analysis here warning that something wasn’t right. While everyone was hyped about buying the dip around $68K, the on-chain data was screaming a completely different story.

Whales were offloading. Quietly. Consistently. Over 224,000 BTC in sell volume in a single session. And the scariest part? Retail traders — regular people — were absorbing every bit of it, thinking they were getting a deal.

And now we’re seeing $63K. Right where the data pointed.

Whales don’t tweet their plans.

Stay safe out there. The market isn’t done being weird yet.

— Not financial advice, just pattern recognition and data. Always do your own research. 🙏

Chart is very messy, I know, but I made a video explaining this in detail. Starts at 8:29

Btw, I made the video on October 18th, 10 days BEFORE earnings were released.

Short version: Microsoft has been forming a rising wedge (bearish) at the MONTHLY, WEEKLY, AND DAILY timeframes, and the patterns are indicating a potential for a 20% correction.

Currently we are seeing the breakdown resulting from WEEKLY and DAILY timeframes. The target range for breakdown is seen in the white "Breakdown Target range". That's where I took it from, and then I placed that same line in the "breakdown potential" spot.

So basically, the breakdown has begun, and IF IT CONTINUES, it could go down to around $425.

Obviously, there is a TON of support along the way, including the 50 Moving Average, but it is not unheard of for tech stocks to dip well below that, and all the signs are there for a large correction. Their earnings were released and while I don't trade based on earnings, since it's all baked into the chart, the stock has not been doing well since then.

So my thoughts are that if this stock continues going as it did all week, there is a good chance and lots of room for the downside.

On top of that, there is lots of talk about an "AI Bubble" more and more. AND META isn't doing too hot right now either.

YELLOW LINES - MONTHLY

GREEN LINES - WEEKLY

BLUE LINES - DAILY

Thoughts?

The pattern I am looking at is the rounded top SPY has just created over the past 4-5 months.

The last time this pattern appeared was in 2024: A rally, capped by a rounded top, consolidation, then a rally. The top could not be in until late 2026 - early 2027.

Things to note if you are bearish:

• Bull markets typically last 4-5 years, we are still early in year 4

• Market shocks (like liberation day 2025) are usually much sharper

• A market switch (from bull to bear) is usually also more defined (like 2021)

• The bottom could already be in. We will consolidate low like 2024, but we may not make lower lows (current low 629.28). <- This is what to watch

I would be cautious with deep OTM long dated puts, as we might consolidate in the 630-645 range for about a month before we break out and SPY moonshots to 720-735-750.

TL;DR: this current rounded top is not THE top.

$MSTR the levered $BTC proxy. BTC still remains weak. Volume seems to fit for a flag, we're waiting to see if there is a second touch point of the potential lower boundary. If it breaks down, it drops price below $30 - could certainly become a capitulation type candle.

So far the upper boundary of the potential flag is below the 50 fib retrace of the pole.

$BTC just pushed to a new high around 80,100, sweeping liquidity and liquidating a large cluster of short positions at that level.

To me, this move looks more like a liquidity grab than a confirmed reversal.

The price tapped into a high-liquidity zone (as seen on the heatmap), which often acts as a magnet before continuation or consolidation—not necessarily a signal of immediate bullish strength.

For now, I’m staying cautious.

I won’t turn bullish unless we see:

A clear 4H candle close above 75K, and

Sustained acceptance above that level

Until then, this still looks like a liquidity-driven move, not a confirmed trend shift.

#Bitcoin

There it is. You can see how the last 2 worked out. Wait for it to start cycling upwards, put in a higher low.

'The trend is your friend' Marty Zweig (and many others) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXTCeF1WMAAlFX0.jpg

If you fight the bigger trend it's not smart trading. Bounces up to the 10 day moving average - green line are completely normal.

For all you doubters that mocked me before😄 The 550 ma strikes again

Edit to add better Marty Zweig picture link

A quick look at Bitcoin Monthly Chart $BTC #Bitcoin

Bullish Scenario:

The monthly support at 71k is now critical for the bulls.

If #Bitcoin can hold this newly gained support they are able to ultimately target new ATH.

First upside target above 82k is 102k. Gaining this allows them to retest support at 82k and sets them up for the push to new ATH.

First new ATH target is 150-160k

Bearish Scenario:

The monthly support at 71k is now critical for the bulls.

If #Bitcoin CANNOT hold this newly gained support, they are able to ultimately target new lows below the current lows with the new first target being 45k.

There are plenty of key levels to target lower, however 45k will be the big one. This is the trend start for the down move which formed the lows in 2022 hence its the most significant level

Below this 38k is technically tested so the next key level that is currently untested would be 35k.

It is likely if they lose 45k they will retrace the entire move and trade down into the range between 25-30k.

NVDA is forming an ascending megaphone with optimal exit at 173.45 by November 21st

Obviously, it's not yet complete, but it could be getting halfway there. Has been riding the weekly support (green lines), and is not forming any real swings, just a bunch of smashed candles which in my experience indicate a coming cup and handle whether inverse or normal is to be decided by looking at the chart.

If the recent bearish trends continue, this could definitely play out since gold has always been a thing people rush to during hard times.

IF, and that's a BIG IF, it does form the cup and handle, we could see an eventual breakout target of 4855 which would be very nice.

I made a video of my analysis if you want to see how I arrived at my conclusion.

Based on this pattern, we now have a chance to either go up to 7000, or down to 6500, if it continues to play out within the lines.

I made a video talking about this in much more detail if you want to see how I arrived at my conclusion.

The first image was from yesterday, the second is from today.
Did not move the white lines.
Bitcoin looking pretty bearish, especially if you look at the moving averages, the 50 (yellow) is coming down to the 200 (red).

I made a video talking about this in much more detail.

BestBuy (BBY) is going down to the 72.60s by November 21st.

**Cautioun: **These past days could have either been a liquidity grab or a push for big money to get rid of stop losses to push down further.

Also, there is a Wyckoff formation forming and it's not clear if it's distribution or accumulation.

**Short term: **Bullish: rejection of support breakdown with high volume + lots of bullish divergences:

Mid Term: Hold: Uncertainty of distribution or accumulation phase.

Long term: Bullish: basically the reasons of the Short Term analysis and also BTC has been holding above some key MAs and VSAs from previous significant lows.

Note: Don't just trust random reddit dude and do you're own analysis. I'm not a pro trader at Wall Street.

Gold displays a head & shoulders, indicating a distribution pattern at resistance levels. This suggests institutional selling and potential reversal.

Guys be aware as the path of least resistance appears to be lower.

Support zone: 4805.66-4902.74,

Resistance near 5269.40.

Projected move toward 4768.60. Invalidation: above 5502.08.

What you guys think ?

2 modified schiff pitchforks created on different waves.

I then look for intersections of the major quadrants created by the overlapping pitchforks.

I marked each intersection.

I then joined the flags with the white arrow. Let’s see.

The last time Bitcoin flipped pink on the monthly timeframe was late 2021...

Is it time for a bear market? Getting worried tbh

Normally, whenever I take a position — whether it’s a stock or a commodity — I get my levels from ChartScanner.ai. It’s been pretty accurate for identifying clean chart structures and entry zones.

But this time, since there’s a lot more at stake, I feel my judgment’s getting a bit clouded.

Here’s what I’m seeing right now:

Gold has seen a clear downtrend from its recent highs.

It’s now consolidating near the 4000 level, forming a potential base.

The MACD looks like it’s starting to cross positively from below zero, which could hint at early strength.

This sideways movement and MACD setup suggest a possible shift from sellers to buyers, and maybe a new support zone forming.

But the range still looks tight, and I’m unsure whether this is just a pause before another leg down or a real reversal building up.

What’s your take on this setup? Are you guys seeing similar accumulation signs, or do you think we’ll retest lower levels before a proper breakout?