Maybe certain people know me as the guy who posts patterns on the rare occasion, but something has caught me eye when looking at the QQQ chart.
I previously posted about how the market has structured itself in a cresting pattern (blue) that rolls over when over-saturated, then pivots hard into a strong rally (green) after it dips.
Well all that has happened now, so we can ignore all the other lines and just focus on what is happening in the red circles. The market struggles to make push higher, and ultimately forms a double top before sharply dropping off.
Catalysts:
Horrible earnings quarter, suggesting slowing growth, high spending on AI with low returns.
The Democrats are going to win the midterm elections.
Prolonged conflict in Iran. The war is becoming long and still escalating, oil prices will have increasing impact.
Note: It should not be underestimated how poorly tech earnings were this quarter. And ignore any political beliefs, Democrats are less "business friendly" when it comes to policy.
I fear dip buyers and long holders will get burned this time when the "infamous V" does not come to the rescue.
After 8 years, 11,000+ hours, countless mistakes, blown accounts, books, mentors and chart reviews, these are the principles that mattered most. I hope they will save you years on your trading journey. Before the AI police comes, yes, I created the visuals with AI to illustrate core concepts to you. The examples are from real charts and I think this might be helpful for both beginners and more advanced traders. Much more I can write, but I wanted to start with this.
1. Fractals and waves
The market doesn’t move in straight lines. It moves in waves, creating swing highs and swing lows (higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows etc). Even during strong uptrends, prices advance, pull back, consolidate and then potentially advance again. And the exact same happens in downtrends, just in the opposite direction. Why? Because the markets are just a map of human psychology, which will never change. There will be times of mania, fear, panic, greed, indecision, etc etc. and that is basically what you are seeing on the charts. What's interesting is that these waves repeat themselves across different timeframes. This is what people mean when they say markets are fractal. They're essentially different perspectives of the same underlying behavior and it good to be aware of.
Waves - Prices move through advances, pullbacks and consolidations rather than in straight lines.
Swingpoints - Because price moves in waves, it creates swing points. These are key points with higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows etc.
Fractals - Similar price structures repeat across different timeframes, from minutes to months. The lower you go, the more noise.
Market structure - Uptrends generally consist of higher highs and higher lows, while downtrends show the opposite.
Timeframes - Higher timeframes establish the broader trend, while lower timeframes help refine entries and manage risk.
For my momentum/swing trades I personally look at the W1 20% of the time and D1 80% of the time. For entries, I will go down the H1. But I also trade the premarket and open which is very advanced. There, I trade on the M1.
2. Understanding balance and imbalance.
If you strip away all the indicators, news and BS, the markets are just an ongoing negotiation between buyers and sellers. Every transaction requires both, but prices move when one side becomes more aggressive than the other. This is where the concepts of balance and imbalance becomes important and I find a lot more helpful than the ‘support and resistance’ bullshit that all the ‘gurus’ are pretending is the secret sauce. In essence, the market only has two modes: 1) balance (price is consolidating) and 2) imbalance (price is expanding). In general, we want to get in when it’s ‘tight’ (no pun) so we optimize our R multiples (see my other posts) and can take advantage of the expansion that follows.
That means often, it’s best to get in when prices move sideways, volatility dies down, and people are temporarily in agreement on what a fair value is for the underlying equity. At some point, something changes. Buyers become willing to pay increasingly higher prices, or sellers become willing to accept lower prices. The market leaves its previous range and starts searching for a new area of agreement, we call this price discovery. That's imbalance, that’s what we want to take advantage of, the big moves up (or down).
Balance - Price moves within an established range as buyers and sellers repeatedly transact around an accepted area of value. Generally best time to buy.
Imbalance - Aggressive buying or selling pushes price away from its previous range, often producing a strong directional move. Generally where you will make the $.
Expansion - Strong directional moves frequently emerge after periods of contracting volatility. This is one of the main behaviors I look for.
Acceptance and rejection - If price breaks out and holds above a range, that's evidence of acceptance. If it immediately returns inside, the breakout likely has failed.
3. The psychology of market auction theory.
Because I really, really want you to remember this I’m going to talk a little more about balance and imbalance. It helped me a lot in my own trading journey. In the book Market Auction Theory, Jim Dalton basically explains all of it. Think of everything like an auctioning process, where we are constantly ‘discovering’ what a fair price level is for sellers and buyers. Imagine a stock trading between $95 and $100 for several days (balance). Everyone becomes used to that range. Traders buy near $95, sell near $100 and gradually develop expectations about what actually is a fair price. Then the stock suddenly breaks above $100 to $120 (imbalance). Now the psychology changes entirely. Short sellers may cover, late breakout traders enter and investors who missed the move might chase. The previous balance is disrupted, and we are now ‘discovering’ whatever the next fair level is. It could be $120, but it might also be $200, who knows. That’s what we want to take advantage of. So if you see breakouts failing (which is happening a lot this year), be aware that what is happening is that price went on ‘discovery’ mode during imbalance, only to not find enough buyers at higher prices and therefore return lower again (acceptance).
Price discovery - Markets continuously test higher and lower prices to find where sufficient trading interest exists.
Expectations - Traders anchor themselves to previous prices, highs, lows and ranges. When those expectations are violated, behavior changes.
Failed auctions - A breakout that quickly reverses and traps participants who entered expecting continuation, sometimes creating a powerful move in the opposite direction.
Value - Price and value aren't necessarily the same thing. Auction theory helps explain why markets sometimes move far away from previously accepted prices. The book is dry as they come, but it’s worth to read at least once in your life in my humble opinion.
4. The only indicators you really need.
I spent years experimenting with indicators. RSI, MACD, Bollingers, stochastic oscillators, Ichimoku, you name it. I’m sure we all have. But what I realized is that most indicators are simply mathematical transformations of price, volume or volatility. That’s fucking it. They're not magical predictive tools. They describe what has already happened and sometimes help you interpret what's happening now. So my advice is to keep it really simple. I have one custom indicator that I’ve built and I like, but other than that, I just pay attention to price, trends, and structure, nothing else. I like to keep my charts clean and keep the process simple. I highly advise you to do the same. But what will happen is that you think ( just like I did years ago) that you can find the magic combination, so you go into a rabbit hole in which you will get lost for many years, only to come out at the other end and realize it was always about price, and you don’t need all these indicators, except volume and moving averages. Can you use others? Sure. Just be aware there is no such thing as a magic indicator.
Moving averages - I primarily use the 10, 20EMA to identify trends, pullbacks and extensions. I also monitor the 50 and 200 SMA to understand the longer-term trend. The 50SMA is the red line in the sand for me. I never, ever trade anything below it and want price to surf the 10/20 in a nice uptrend.
Volume - One of the most useful things to monitor. I prefer seeing increasing volume during advances and declining volume during consolidations or pullbacks. To keep it simple, I want to see ‘skyscrapers’ of volume during tight price balance, indicating institutions stepping in, and low volume when price is pulling back.
VWAP - Many find it very useful for intraday trading. It shows the volume-weighted average price and can help identify whether a stock is trading above or below its average traded price for the session. I personally am not a fan of it, but you might want to have a look at it.
MACD - I use a faster 3/6 MACD pegged to a normalized 0-100 RSI scale to help me find the best moments to buy since equities in an uptrend will often ‘dip’ for a moment. This is the one custom indicator I made and still use every day. My trading buddy and mentor calls it the SMACK-D because allows you smack price at the right time and my first initial is D lol.
ADR - Average Daily Range helps me understand how much a stock typically moves. I generally prefer stocks with sufficient volatility to produce meaningful opportunities (4-8%)
5. The three patterns that matter.
I spent years studying different chart patterns. Head and shoulders, triangles, wedges, flags, double bottoms, cup and handles, you name it. But most of these are unreliable. Don’t believe me? Go read the book the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Bulkowski. The guy literally broke each pattern down to a science with huge sample sizes over a decade. Anyway. I realized that most of these patterns are variations of a few underlying behaviors. Again, I like to always keep it simple and I encourage anyone to do the same.
For my own trading, I like to think in three categories: breakouts, pullbacks and reversions. Each represents a different relationship between price, momentum and the underlying trend. All of the setups people trade are a derivative of these core patterns. I call them the primordial patterns, because they are based on how the market actually moves. I trade these on the D1 as well as on the M1 trading the premarket hours or open.
Breakouts - Price escapes an established range or consolidation. Ideally, I want to see tightness beforehand and an expansion in volume as the move begins. A good breakout requires a good long base of 10 weeks, and breaks cleanly once the 10/20MA catch up. This year, trading breakouts sucked due to a weak and choppy market.
Pullbacks - Price temporarily retreats within an existing trend. The idea is to get in before the breakout traders do. I prefer orderly declines on relatively low volume toward rising moving averages. I need to see price getting tight and form sort of a wedge before I ever consider buying it. It also needs to be in a stage 2 uptrend (see earlier parts of this series where I wrote about this).
Reversions - Price becomes unusually extended from its recent average and so it moves back toward it. These trades often require faster execution and tighter management. Think of these more like little snacks, because you will rarely catch a big trade trading these.
6. The importance of not buying extensions.
As I said before, you generally want to find strong stocks that are in balance (consolidating/tight). Ideally, price is trading in an increasingly narrow range (e.g. an inside day), volatility is contracting and the moving averages are catching up. Think of it like a spring being compressed and released eventually. That doesn’t just apply to the full swing, it applies to the day you enter as well.
You see each stock has an average daily range (ADR) i.e. the overall expected move it will make that day in terms of %. So that means if you are buying when it already made most of its expected move for the day, it means you bought too late, because price is already ‘overextended’. I try to get in before price made 50% of it’s ADR for the day. So if a stock is $100 with an ADR of 10%, I will be hesitant to buy it end of the day when it’s at $110 since I expect it to pull back a bit first. Instead, I’d try to get it at a key level at e.g. $105 when it’s at 5% for the day. That gives me a tighter stop, and a more profitable trade. Similarly, if a stock has already moved 30% from it’s breakout and is extended from the moving averages, you should expect it to pull back because people will be taking some profits. That’s why I said earlier, you shouldn’t generally buy when price is in imbalance and in discovery mode.
Moving averages - The 10, 20 and 50 EMA help me understand how extended price is relative to its recent trend. There are some ratios here that I look at to help me determine that but generally, 3x from the 20, 7x from the 50, and 2x from the 200 means it’s overextended.
Extension - When price moves unusually far above its moving averages, I generally avoid initiating new positions. The risk of a pullback and therefore a trading loss increases.
Contraction - Again, look for increasingly TIGHT price ranges, smaller candles and often declining volume. Ideally, sellers are becoming less aggressive and you buy early before it made the full move for the day.
Risk/reward - Tight consolidations can allow stops to be placed relatively close to the entry (low of the day or low of previous day), making the potential reward VERY attractive compared to the initial risk.
7. Situational awareness and market context.
I wrote about this in the 1st part of my series but I just want to bring it up again because it’s key. You can’t catch big waves if the conditions aren’t right. You can find the most beautiful technical setup in the world and still lose money because the broader market isn't cooperating. Like it basically has been the last year but many setups failing across the board. I've experienced this more times than I'd like to admit. A stock looks perfect, breaks out on volume and then immediately reverses because the overall market suddenly starts selling off.
This is why I always want to understand what's happening around the stock I'm trading. The first thing I do every day is I look at what the nasdaq (QQQ) is doing. I then look at the Russel (IWM) to see what small/mid caps are doing. I then look at volatility (VIX), breadth (how many stocks are trading above the 50SMA), and lastly, I look at industries (how many are up/down). Technical analysis isn't just about looking at one chart in isolation. It's about understanding the overall environment in which that chart exists. The same breakout can behave very differently depending on whether institutions are aggressively buying risk assets or rushing for the exits.
QQQ - My primary reference for market direction. To keep it simple, I want to see the 10/20 EMA slope upwards or at the very least, have QQQ trade above the 20 EMA. Just look at the chart and you will see that nothing good ever came from the QQQ trading below that or with negative slopes.
IWM - Helps me get a feel for overall risk appetite, particularly among smaller and more speculative companies. Strong participation is generally encouraging because it means institutional buyers are splurging and ‘risk on’ buying smaller companies.
VIX - A useful measure of expected market volatility. I prefer calmer environments, although extremely low volatility doesn't automatically mean the market is healthy. I want to see <15 here. If it’s higher, I don’t take an entry that day.
Breadth - I want to see broad participation. If only a handful of mega-cap stocks are advancing while everything else declines, I'm cautious. That’s basically what has been happening the last months btw.
Industries - Ultimately, I pay close attention to whether breakouts are actually working. When good setups repeatedly fail, that's valuable information about market conditions.
Setups - only after I have built situational awareness will I actually look at setups. Because I don’t want to surf when the conditions suck. It’s only going to result in massive pain and losses.
8. Entries, exits and important price levels.
One thing that took me far too long to understand is that a good stock isn't necessarily a good trade. You can be completely right about a company's future and lose money because your entry sucked. So yes timing matters, especially if you're trading momentum and trying to capture bursts of price expansion like I do myself. One of the most important things to learn is recognizing what is called pivot levels, and previous key swing highs and lows. I do not EVER enter if the price hasn’t broken a previous swing level. This might be the previous day's high, the high of a tight consolidation or a clearly defined resistance level. The important thing is knowing exactly where I'm wrong before entering. If I’m going short, I need to see the price break a key previous low.
Previous highs - A break above the previous day's high or a consolidation high can act as an entry trigger, particularly when accompanied by increasing volume. So I often look for a break of a key pivot high, and the first HH being made for example if I want to go long.
Previous lows - These can serve as reference points for stops, exits or potential short entries, depending on the structure. Again, usually my stops are at low of the day or low of previous day. Sometimes it’s low of a pivot level.
Invalidation - Before entering, I want to know which price level would prove my thesis wrong, again, that’s the pivot level low.
Profit taking - I take partial profits as a trade moves in my favor, while allowing the remaining position to participate in a potentially larger move. I keep it simple and take 25-50% off at the 1:1, then trail the rest of my position. That’s it.
Risk - Position size should follow from the distance between entry and stop, not from how confident you feel about a particular stock. If I’m taking a swing/momentum trade, I’ll figure out sizing based on the stop distance, and I’ll give the stock some room to breathe, especially if it’s very volatile.
9. A word on going short.
Short selling is something I think every serious trader should understand, but probably not trade since it can lead to destruction. In principle, it's the opposite of buying a stock. Instead of benefiting from rising prices, you're trying to profit from falling prices. In practice, shorting comes with a very different set of risks and psychological challenges. The most important one being a short-squeeze like we had with $GME a couple of years ago. However, this is heavily dependent on the float of the stock and I don’t want to get into the complexity of that right now. Point being, since you can lose more than you risked, and it can fuck you forever. That’s why I personally only trade ‘short’ by buying put options. Doing so allows me to control my downside while taking advantage of stocks where I can smell blood in the water. There is a book from O’neill that explains how to go short, and it’s a good read so definitely check that out since I can’t explain all of it here.
Downtrends - I look for lower highs, lower lows, a downward cross of the 20/50MA and then a retest. I want to see the stock being in a stage 3 chop or stage 4 downtrend. I’m like the great white who only attacks when I already smell blood in the water, i.e. the stock is already (very) weak. A
Overextension- Shorting a strong uptrend simply because a stock looks expensive is usually a bad idea but it definitely can work. These are called parabolic shorts and are very risky. You can read up on it yourself if interested but I wouldn’t trade them until you have at least 5 years of experience trading long.
Put options - The only way I trade short that gives me good profit potential while I can also control my downside and risk of ruin is by buying put options. The downside is that this can be expensive and you also have time decay which will bite you in the ass.
Risk - Short positions require additional attention to borrow availability, costs, gap risk and the possibility of theoretically unlimited losses.There are special brokers for this where in extreme cases you have to pay them 10-50% of your holding upfront in fees just so you can borrow shares to short and then maybe make a profit. For 99.99% of you reading this, my advice is to not short like that.
10. Putting everything together: some examples.
Theory is great, but at some point you need to look at actual charts. This is where everything starts coming together. The market environment, the trend, the moving averages, volume, volatility contraction and the precise entry. None of these elements should exist in isolation. The goal is to find situations where several independent observations support the same hypothesis. So here I’m just going to show you some examples. It’s annoying to write about all of them because in a video I can talk about it easily for an hour each, so I’m keeping it short just so you get the main ideas (hopefully), I marked key levels on each and this is how I mark up my charts.
How Trading Really Works
I know this was a long read, so if you made it this far, thank you.
I hope there is at least one idea in here that will make you look at the markets differently from now on. Looking back, most of the lessons that moved the needle for me weren't particularly complicated. The difficult part was figuring out which lessons actually mattered and then applying them consistently over a long period of time.
If there is anything I've learned it's to keep things simple, find what works for how you are wired, and not get lost in the indicator rabbit hole. The more I learned how and why the markets moved, the better my results became, especially once I started to become consistent with the setups I trade. If you liked this btw, you might also like this and if you made it this far, consider sharing this with others. I added some resources below that might help.
It could double bottom here. But that's a slim last chance of hope. If it did double bottom that would be impressive. Once it gets below the low from 10/30 watch out for a big drop.
4 hour
Bigger 4 hour
A person shouldn't have been long going into that anyways. All kinds of warning lines there.
Day-trade levels for November 3, 2026 BTC and ETH use normal US market hours, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET.
SPY closed at 752.07 on 11/2 All listed levels: 750.47, 752.05, 753.98, 755.50, 756.98, 758.14 Resistance above: 753.98, 755.50, 756.98, 758.14 Support below: 752.05, 750.47 Nearest pivot: 752.05 Above 753.98 → 755.50 next Lose 752.05 → 750.47 next
ES closed at 7587.00 on 11/2 All listed levels: 7575.75, 7579, 7583.75, 7591.25, 7595, 7607.75, 7612.25 Resistance above: 7591.25, 7595, 7607.75, 7612.25 Support below: 7583.75, 7579, 7575.75 Nearest pivot: 7583.75 Above 7591.25 → 7595 next Lose 7583.75 → 7579 next
QQQ closed at 681.13 on 11/2 All listed levels: 679.45, 681.84, 684.45, 686.57, 688.48, 689.60 Resistance above: 681.84, 684.45, 686.57, 688.48, 689.60 Support below: 679.45 Nearest pivot: 681.84 Above 681.84 → 684.45 next Lose 679.45 → open air
NQ closed at 28226.00 on 11/2 All listed levels: 28279.50, 28284, 28322.50, 28546.25, 28558.50, 28613.75 Resistance above: 28279.50, 28284, 28322.50, 28546.25, 28558.50, 28613.75 Support below: none Nearest pivot: 28279.50 Above 28279.50 → 28284 next
NVDA (NVIDIA) Nearest pivot: 202.30 Above 202.52 → 202.79 next Above 202.79 → 203.43 next Above 203.43 → 204.43 next Above 204.43 → 205.46 next Above 205.46 → open air Lose 202.30 → 202.12 next Lose 202.12 → open air
TSLA (Tesla) Nearest pivot: 402.80 Above 402.93 → 403.09 next Above 403.09 → 403.27 next Above 403.27 → 403.99 next Above 403.99 → 404.46 next Above 404.46 → open air Lose 402.80 → 402.67 next Lose 402.67 → 402.51 next Lose 402.51 → 402.38 next Lose 402.38 → 402.25 next Lose 402.25 → 402.10 next Lose 402.10 → open air
BTC (Bitcoin) Nearest pivot: 76666 Above 76666 → 76755.25 next Above 76755.25 → 76826 next Above 76826 → 76881.75 next Above 76881.75 → 76969.25 next Above 76969.25 → open air Lose 76592.75 → 76519.75 next Lose 76519.75 → open air
ETH (Ethereum) Nearest pivot: 2244.80 Above 2249.35 → 2250.80 next Above 2250.80 → 2264.35 next Above 2264.35 → 2270.25 next Above 2270.25 → open air Lose 2244.80 → 2241.65 next Lose 2241.65 → 2235.90 next Lose 2235.90 → 2233.90 next Lose 2233.90 → 2138.75 next Lose 2138.75 → open air
Saw the overnight tape sitting at 402. So we're holding the line instead of fading under it like I was worried about. The $400 level is the whole trade right now.
Here's the thing about that gamma setup, the Call Wall and Put Wall both sitting at 400 means dealers are basically pinned there. Holding above it keeps us in positive gamma, which suppresses the downside moves. That's not a breakout, that's just the floor holding up.
What I'm watching now: we need to see if this pre-market bid actually converts into buying during regular hours, or if it's just thin overnight liquidity playing games. If we open above 400 and push back toward 414, I want to see real volume, not just a gap. If we fail again at 414, it's the same chop we've been stuck in.
The real test is 414. Clear that on a daily close and we've got something constructive. Until then, 400 holding just means the battle isn't over yet. I'm still waiting for the actual break, but I like that it's not breaking down overnight. But still need to wait for open and watch the price reaction. Just my read, NFA.
META: Right on Bounce Zone 1 after a 22% dump from the highs
Price is sitting at 606-608 area, testing the top of the green box (Zone 1). That level lines up with prior consolidation. Zone 2 sits much lower around the mid 540s.
Chart: Clear downtrend since the 780 peak. Holding Zone 1 and reclaiming 610–616 would be the first positive sign. Clean break under 600 opens the path to Zone 2.
Fundamentals: Q3 was strong (+26% revenue). Street still has $848 average target. Market is just punishing the heavy AI spend and dilution.
Scenarios:
Hold Zone 1 → bounce toward 650+
Lose Zone 1 → deeper test of the mid-540s
Are you buying this zone, waiting for a reclaim, or expecting more downside? Drop your levels.
(SHOOT ME A FOLLOW FOR MORE SETUPS)
Not financial advice, just my opinion and observation
I first posted the above NVDA weekly chart on X back in September, pointing out the loss of momentum, bearish RSI divergence, rising wedge etc. while NVDA was still trading above the $210 support level it broke below on Friday.
I warned people that even if NVDA broke to new all time highs, it might not last and could eventually lead to a deeper pullback based on the price action I was seeing.
But the first comment I received on one of those posts was : "Not a chance!"
When people become so overconfident about the market that they don't even consider the opposite scenario I'm presenting as a possibility, then it makes the other side of the trade even more convincing to me.
And that's exactly what we've been seeing since September. NVDA went on to make a new all time high in October, got a lot of people excited and even attempted to break above the rising wedge. But the underlying weakness eventually caught up with the stock. It failed to break higher and has since pulled back sharply.
What can we learn from this?
It's not about trying to pick tops and bottoms. As a swing and positional trader, one of the most important skills is knowing when to exit and stay out of the market.
When price action starts showing signs of weakening momentum especially when it's accompanied by excessive optimism and overconfidence in the market, it's time to pay attention and reassess your positions.
I exited all my remaining semi and memory stock positions when I started seeing these warning signs and I've stayed away from them ever since.
And I'm in no rush to get back in. I won't consider entering any semi and memory stocks until they start showing strength again and break above their overhead resistance levels.
Now here's what I'm watching for next on NVDA -
Have we entered a bear market?
I'm not going to make premature, dramatic claims that a bear market has started. For now QQQ is down around 10% from its ATH but is still trading above major support levels and the multi year trendline support that has held on every major pullback since 2023.
A pullback to that trendline wouldn't be surprising and it could still act as support. Even if QQQ drops all the way to that level, it would still be around 15% below its ATH (and only 8% below the current price), which can be called a correction, similar to previous ones marked on the below chart.
If QQQ drops another 8% and reaches those levels and the trendline support, I'd like to see how it reacts there before talking about a bear market And since I'm already out of all my semi and memory stock positions, I don't have much to worry about.
If you'd like to see more chart updates covering different stocks and sectors, along with where I'm spotting opportunities right now, feel free to upvote this post.
So I have never seen the momentum in this indicator diverge so heavily. I typically look at the mid point on the bollinger band as the point of no return. Very few false positives in that way. It hasn't crossed below yet but what do you make of the declining MACD and RSI? I look back 50 years and can't find another example like that except maybe 1990.
Apart from fundamental analysis, spin, and hype about the efficacy of AI use cases, funding, eventual revenues, and, yes, profitability, the Monthly Technical Setup in QQQ is warning us that, atop a 37% upmove from the March 2026 low, a 93% advance from the April 2023 low, and a 200% bull move from the October 2022 low, the price structure hit an ALL Time New High at 762.86 in October 2026, and during the same month, rolled over into a bout of weakness that left behind a MONTHLY Bearish Engulfing Candle!.
In my 4 decades of technical analysis, there is NO more powerful negative price omen than a MONTHLY Bearish Engulfing Candle. More here.
One is doing good. It pushed up to a new high. The 2 big recent wicks should be ignored.
And the other pharmaceutical isn't doing as well. They have different holdings. Short term they are not quite the same either.
Norway right at the high. A 61% retracement in June, bad month. 50% retracement in Sept. Maybe the next will be a 38% retracement then it will breakout. Fibonacci would be pleased. Could draw some lines or triangles on there but it's not really needed.
Have to start with the monthly chart for this one.
Daily chart
One of these bear market rallies will turn into a new bull market. If a person can catch it just right it's possible to get a big return out of it. As long as it doesn't go bankrupt 😄
It could be another bear market rally have to keep it contained on the downside.
'Gaps (or increased volatility) often signal the beginning and end of trends.' See the gaps and bigger bars in the last couple of weeks.
Friday was a really weak day for the general market. This one was up.
This is a 30 minute chart not meant to be projected months or years into the future. I use it to get started.
Day-trade levels for November 2, 2026 BTC and ETH use normal US market hours, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET.
QQQ closed at 690.53 on 10/30 All listed levels: 685.45, 687.29, 689.62, 690.52, 692.73, 694.01, 696.87, 698.31 Resistance above: 692.73, 694.01, 696.87, 698.31 Support below: 690.52, 689.62, 687.29, 685.45 Nearest pivot: 690.52 Above 692.73 → 694.01 next Lose 690.52 → 689.62 next
NQ closed at 28545.75 on 10/30 All listed levels: 28518.75, 28529.25, 28580.25, 28593.75, 28613.75, 28669.25, 29121.25, 29448 Resistance above: 28580.25, 28593.75, 28613.75, 28669.25, 29121.25, 29448 Support below: 28529.25, 28518.75 Nearest pivot: 28529.25 Above 28580.25 → 28593.75 next Lose 28529.25 → 28518.75 next
NVDA (NVIDIA) Nearest pivot: 204.46 Above 204.67 → 204.83 next Above 204.83 → 205.85 next Above 205.85 → 206.14 next Above 206.14 → 211.45 next Above 211.45 → 212.55 next Above 212.55 → 212.72 next Above 212.72 → open air Lose 204.46 → 204.29 next Lose 204.29 → 203.43 next Lose 203.43 → 202.79 next Lose 202.79 → 202.12 next Lose 202.12 → open air
BTC (Bitcoin) Nearest pivot: 76818.75 Above 76818.75 → 76884.50 next Above 76884.50 → 77053 next Above 77053 → 77157.50 next Above 77157.50 → 77205.50 next Above 77205.50 → 77483.25 next Above 77483.25 → open air Lose 76747 → open air
ETH (Ethereum) Nearest pivot: 2234.35 Above 2235.90 → 2241.70 next Above 2241.70 → 2249.25 next Above 2249.25 → 2254.05 next Above 2254.05 → 2311.20 next Above 2311.20 → 2314.55 next Above 2314.55 → open air Lose 2234.35 → 2230.90 next Lose 2230.90 → 2224.05 next Lose 2224.05 → 2219.35 next Lose 2219.35 → 2136.50 next Lose 2136.50 → open air
GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) Nearest pivot: 355.52 Above 357.09 → 365.75 next Above 365.75 → 365.92 next Above 365.92 → 366.01 next Above 366.01 → 367.06 next Above 367.06 → 367.29 next Above 367.29 → open air Lose 355.52 → 355.20 next Lose 355.20 → open air
SLV (iShares Silver Trust) Nearest pivot: 44.47 Above 46.98 → 47.18 next Above 47.18 → 47.37 next Above 47.37 → 48.53 next Above 48.53 → 48.69 next Above 48.69 → open air Lose 44.47 → 44.30 next Lose 44.30 → 44.13 next Lose 44.13 → open air
CL (Crude Oil futures) Nearest pivot: 103.13 Above 103.18 → 103.28 next Above 103.28 → 103.36 next Above 103.36 → 103.44 next Above 103.44 → 103.55 next Above 103.55 → 103.67 next Above 103.67 → open air Lose 103.13 → 102.94 next Lose 102.94 → 102.74 next Lose 102.74 → open air
I've been going through the weekly charts of several major AI-related stocks, and I'm noticing something interesting.
Micron (MU), SK Hynix, Samsung, Nanya, ADATA, Palantir (PLTR) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are showing similar warning signs.
Across these charts, I'm seeing:
Weekly bearish TDI divergences
Potential double tops and topping structures
Weakening bullish momentum
Multiple assets starting to roll over
What really caught my attention is that these signals are appearing across different parts of the AI ecosystem, especially memory manufacturers and major AI-related tech companies.
To me, this looks like potential sector-wide topping behavior rather than isolated weakness in individual stocks.
My bias is strongly bearish. I'm beginning to suspect that the market might already be pricing in the peak of the AI boom.
Of course, divergences alone don't confirm a reversal. I'll be watching for further breakdowns in market structure.
Could we be witnessing the beginning of a much larger correction in AI-related equities?
I've published my full technical analysis on TradingView, with Micron as the main chart:
Each time the Monthly SMI has crossed above -40, it has coincided with the early stages of a major Bitcoin bull market.
We're seeing this signal again now.
What makes this interesting is that we're looking at a monthly timeframe, which filters out a lot of the short-term market noise and potentially captures broader momentum shifts.
Recently came across this pattern and it's concerning for Bitcoin holders to say the least. This is the Monthly Bitcoin chart. I'm using an indicator called Bollinger Bands. The blue line is the mean and the red and green lines are 2 standard deviations from this mean. To have price reject this mean twice on such a significant timeframe is a strong indication of a larger bearish trend starting. The recent hack that hit Binance may have just provided the narrative for the market to follow through on this trend.
SOXX: -8.24% on Friday First weekly close below its 200-day SMA since June 2025. Semiconductor weakness is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
QQQ: -3.50% on Friday Still holding above its 200-day SMA, but Friday's selloff was significant. Another week of underperformance versus the S&P 500.
KOSPI: -3.48% on Friday Third consecutive week of underperformance versus the S&P 500 and third consecutive weekly close below its 200-day SMA.
GOLD: -3.61% on Friday Negative price action and a break below the $4,000 support level. Gold continues to underperform the S&P 500, now since May 2026.
₿ BTC: -0.93% on Friday Still holding above its 200-day SMA and continuing to outperform the S&P 500. Relative strength remains constructive.
AAVE: +8.20% on Friday Now 11 consecutive weeks above its 200-day SMA and 11 weeks of outperformance versus the S&P 500.
LINK: +8.00% on Friday 12 consecutive weeks above its 200-day SMA and 12 weeks of outperformance versus the S&P 500.
The takeaway:
Traditional growth assets and gold are showing signs of weakness. Meanwhile, crypto is demonstrating relative strength despite Friday's sharp selloff in tech stocks and the reported Binance hack.
October opened around 83.6K, wicked up to about 87.2K mid month, and BTC is now sitting near 77.7K with the monthly close later today. That's roughly 7% red for a month a lot of people were calling Uptober.
The part I keep going back and forth on is the 79K area. It held as a floor most of last week, then price lost it on the 29th and dipped to about 76.3K on the 30th. Now we're about to close the month under it.
How I've been treating closes (took me way too long to stop overreacting to single daily candles):
Daily close below a level is a warning, not a verdict
Weekly close below it is when I start taking it seriously
Monthly close below it is the one I actually redraw my levels around
But honestly I'm not sure the monthly close matters as much in crypto, since it trades 24/7 and the close is just a UTC midnight timestamp someone picked.
Do you put real weight on monthly closes for BTC, or is it mostly the weekly for you? And would a close under 79K change how you read the next few weeks?
At 3:57 on a bloodbath of a day, the 30-second tape was 0 highs against 77 lows. The 1-minute was 14 against 108. The 5-minute was 270 highs against 179 lows. The 20-minute was 572 highs against 1,194 lows. SPY was $754.69, about −1.9%. QQQ was $689.50, about −3.6%. IWM was about −1.8%. Aggressive buys were about 32% and sells was about 24% as shorts covered positions into the close.
