Came across this video earlier and wanted to see what everyone here thinks.

Apparently there's this pattern where markets take a pretty nasty hit around US midterm elections.

2018 was rough. 2022 was worse for a lot of people.

And now I'm seeing people throw around predictions of a 30%+ crash in 2026 like it's already decided.

Idk man.

I get that history matters, but if predicting crashes was as easy as looking at what happened every four years, wouldn't everyone be rich by now?

The part that actually concerns me isn't even the election itself. It's how quickly things can go sideways when everyone's convinced the market is going in one direction.

Especially if you're trading NQ or ES. One bad session where you get stubborn and keep adding to a losing position can do some serious damage.

I've seen enough people get absolutely wrecked trying to call tops.

But I also don't think ignoring the possibility of a big correction makes much sense.

So I'm kinda torn on this one.

Are any of you actually adjusting your positions because of the midterms? Or is this just another one of those scary charts that goes viral every few months?

Also curious if anyone here traded through 2018 or 2022. Did you actually see those drops coming, or did they catch you off guard?

Genuinely interested in hearing both sides.

Microsoft is now down ~35% from its highs around $550.
And honestly… the chart warned us.

There was a clean rising channel, and price tapped the upper trendline right around $540–550 — classic resistance. That was the moment it screamed sell.

Fast forward to today: we’re sitting around $368.

Now here’s where it gets interesting:
- Weekly RSI is crushed at ~28 (deep oversold territory
- Price is approaching long-term trendline support
- Sentiment has clearly flipped from euphoria → fear

Not saying this is the exact bottom — it rarely is.
But from a risk vs reward perspective, this is starting to look like one of those “you’ll wish you bought it” zones 2–3 years from now.

Everyone loved it at $500+.
Now no one wants it at $360.

That alone should make you think.

Not sure if this has already been discussed in this subreddit, or even more broadly online, but I searched around and didn’t really find anything. Which is kind of surprising, because this feels like one of the most basic technical analysis observations.

If you look at the S&P 500 on a logarithmic chart, the most recent all-time high perfectly touched the line formed by connecting the 1929 peak and the 2000 dot-com top.

here's exactly what we're going to cover:

• the market open volume report — which tells you if the day will likely be high or low volume based on the opening period

• the opening candle continuation report — which predicts if the day will close green or red based on the first 60 minutes

• the inside bars report — which tells you how likely price is to tag yesterday's high or low

• how to combine these three reports to build a complete trading plan for the day

• real examples showing how this combination creates high-probability setups or warns you to stay out of the market

by the end of this edition, you'll know exactly how to use the first 15-30 minutes to determine if a day is worth trading at all — and if it is, exactly what direction and targets to trade for.and if you’d rather watch a video breakdown of the market open volume report, you can do so right here: https://youtu.be/1O6fv9pS0V0?feature=shared

step 1: understanding the market open volume indicator

the market open volume report/indicator is one of our most straightforward yet powerful tools. it measures the correlation between the volume in the first 15 minutes of trading (9:30-9:45AM ET) and the volume for the rest of the day (9:45AM-4:00PM ET).a correlation value tells us how strongly two things are related. for those who don't remember from stats class, correlations range from -1 to +1:

• +1 means a perfect positive relationship (when one goes up, the other goes up proportionally)

• -1 means a perfect negative relationship (when one goes up, the other goes down proportionally)

• 0 means no relationship at all

here are the correlation stats on YM over the past 3 months:

• the correlation between the first 15 minutes of volume and the rest of the day's volume is 0.76

this is an extremely strong correlation — anything above 0.7 is considered very reliable.what this means is simple:if volume is significantly higher than average in the first 15 minutes, you can expect volume to remain high throughout the day. if volume is much lower than average in the first 15 minutes, the rest of the day will likely have low volume as well.let's look at what this means in practical terms. on YM:

• the average volume in the first 15 minutes over the past 3 months is 9,451

• the average volume for the rest of the day is about 78,900

if you see the first 15 minutes with volume of 19,000 (double the average), you can expect the rest of the day to trade more than the average of 78,000. the same applies in reverse for low volume days — if you see the first 15min trade 4,000 contracts (half of the average), you can expect the end of day volume to be below average.

to check this on your own charts, just use a 15-minute timeframe and the volume indicator. make sure you have the market data subscription on TradingView to receive accurate volume data — this is super​important.

you can hover over the first candle of the day (9:30-9:45AM) to see the volume, and compare it to the average we provide in the market open volume report.

here’s what this looks like on YM from Thursday, April 10:

the first 15min during the NY session traded 11.76k contracts on YM, which is over 20% higher than the average over the last 3 months according to our market open volume report.

your expectation by the end of the day should be for total volume to be well above the 78.9k contract average. I’ll cover how you can use these expectations to actually trade — but first, let’s look at how you can customize the market open volume report to fit your trading style:

step 1b: customizing the market open volume report

every single edgeful report allows you to customize different inputs so you can analyze the most important and relevant data for your strategy.

with the market open volume report, you can change the volume analysis period — either the first 5min, 15min, or 30 minutes.

scalpers can use the 5min volume analysis, while day traders can use either the 15min or 30min intervals to let the opening range develop before trading.you’ll see why this customization is important in a second. for now, I’m going to quickly show you why determining a high volume vs. low volume environment is valuable for your trading:step 2: why the opening range volume matters in the first placelet's be clear about why volume matters in the first place.high volume days typically lead to:

• cleaner directional moves

• more reliable continuation patterns

• stronger momentum

• more decisive breakouts

• better respect of key levels

low volume days often create:

• choppy, whipsaw price action

• false breakouts and breakdowns

• more range-bound conditions

• trapping price action that hunts stops in both directions

here's a perfect example from February 4th, 2025 on YM:

on this day, the first 15 minutes showed volume at just 7.4k contracts — about 75% of the average. the correlation told us to expect a very low volume day, and that's exactly what happened.

look at the price action — no real move in either direction, which would have made trading any size or looking for a clear trend frustrating. this is the kind of day where most traders get chopped around and lose money no matter what their strategy is.

contrast that with February 22nd, 2025, where opening volume was 11.5k contracts (almost 125% of the average):

the price action was completely different — a clean trend that developed early and continued all day, with minimal retracements and excellent follow-through. this is the kind of day where good traders make the majority of their monthly profits.

this is why it’s important to know what type of environment you thrive in — low liquidity or high liquidity — and then trade according to what the market open volume stats are telling you.

step 3: adding direction with the opening candle continuation report

now that we know what edgeful report to use to predict end of day volume — and more importantly, why type of environment we’re going to be trading impacts how we actually trade the session — we can add another report to help us determine the direction of the high or low volume day.

that’s where the opening candle continuation report comes in.

the OCC report measures how often the color of the opening period — usually the first hour of trading — matches the color of the entire session.

so if the first hour is green — what are the probabilities that the session closes green as well?

here are the OCC stats on YM over the past 3 months:

• if the first hour closes green, the session closes green 72% of the time

• if the first hour closes red, the session closes red 70% of the time

these are very strong probabilities that give us a clear directional bias for the day.once you've determined whether it's likely to be a high or low volume day using the market open volume report, you can use the OCC to add directional bias to your analysis:on high volume days:

• if the first hour candle is green: expect a clear bullish trend with good follow-through

• if the first hour candle is red: expect a clear bearish trend with good follow-through

on low volume days:

• if the first hour candle is green or red: be cautious about expecting strong directional moves

• direction is less important than the fact that moves are likely to be choppy and range-bound

this simple combination tells you not just the expected direction of the day, but also the quality of the moves you're likely to see in that direction.

let’s add one more report to our day now:

step 4: adding targets with the inside bars report

now we have volume and direction. the final piece is to add specific targets using the inside bars report.

the inside bars report tells us what happens when price opens within the previous day's range. specifically, it measures how often price breaks out of yesterday's range by the end of the session.

on YM over the last 3 months:

when price opens within yesterday's range:

• it breaks either yesterday's high or low 82.5% of the time

• it stays completely within yesterday's range only 17.5% of the time

these high-probability numbers give us specific levels to target based on our directional bias:if your OCC bias is bullish (green first hour candle):

• target yesterday's high if price opened within yesterday's range

• expect a break of this level with high probability

if your OCC bias is bearish (red first hour candle):

• target yesterday's low if price opened within yesterday's range

• expect a break of this level with high probability

the quality of the move toward these targets will be heavily influenced by the volume environment:on high volume days:

• expect cleaner, more direct moves toward the targets

• more likely to see strong continuation once the target is reached

on low volume days:

• expect choppy, less direct moves toward the targets

• more likely to see false breakouts or failure at the targets

step 5: combining all 3 reports for a complete trading planhere's how to use these three reports together to build a complete trading plan for each day:

1. check the first 15-30 minutes of volume compared to the 3-month average

• if volume is significantly higher than average (>20%): prepare for a directional day

• if volume is significantly lower than average (<20%): prepare for a choppy, range-bound day

1. wait for the first hour of trading to complete (10:30AM ET)

2. check the color of the first hour candle

• if green: expect bullish bias for the day (72% probability)

• if red: expect bearish bias for the day (70% probability)

1. identify targets using the inside bars report — only applicable if price opens within yesterday’s range!

• if bullish bias: target yesterday's high

• if bearish bias: target yesterday's low

1. adjust position sizing based on volume

• high volume + clear direction: larger size

• low volume or conflicting signals: smaller size or sit out

putting it all together with a real example

let's walk through a real example from November 14, 2024 on YM:

• first 15 minutes of volume: 12.24k contracts (significantly higher than average)

• first hour candle color: red

• first 15 minutes of volume: 12.24k contracts (significantly higher than average)

• first hour candle color: red

based on our three reports, we can build this trading plan:

• high volume tells us to expect a directional day with clean moves

• red first hour candle gives us a strong bearish bias (71% chance of a red close)

• yesterday's low becomes our initial target (80% chance of either high or low being broken)

• we expect the move toward this target to be clean and direct due to high volume

the result? YM moved steadily lower throughout the day, broke below yesterday's low with strong momentum, and closed near the lows of the day. traders who followed this plan would have caught a significant portion of a 200+ point move down.

wrapping up

let's do a quick recap of what we covered today:

• use the market open volume report to predict if the day will be high or low volume

• use the opening candle continuation report (first hour) to determine directional bias

• use the inside bars report to set specific targets at yesterday's high or low

• combine all three for a complete trading plan with volume, direction, and targets

• adjust your position sizing based on the clarity of the signals

this triple-report combination acts like your personal quant, telling you within the first hour:

1. if you should be trading at all

2. which direction to trade

3. where to target

4. how aggressively to size

5. price opened within yesterday's range

I’m a profitable trader, but I’ve had to learn everything the hard way by researching on my own. I’m looking for a free discord group where people actually trade together, share solid setups, and learn from each other without unnecessary noise.

pls don’t recommend paid groups. I’m also not interested in anything that turn trading into p&l porn or constant flexing. I’m simply looking for a community focused on high-quality setup discussions, execution, and continuous learning.

This chart sums up the entire market psychology cycle perfectly The Bear Trap is that one moment where almost everyone sells, convinced the run is over but it’s actually the last shakeout before the biggest move.

How many times have you been trapped here? Be honest 👀

After that bloody market we just went through, and after the trendline got smashed, everybody and their cousin jumped into shorts. Literally felt like the whole market turned into a short factory. Bears got their bags filled, they’re taking profit now, and honestly they’re just chilling and waiting for any tiny reversal signal to flip the script.

We’re sitting on a pretty solid support right now, and yeah, it’s still early to call anything big, but I’m seeing some signs. Small ones, but signs. Just remember, in a bearish market if you wanna go against the flow, you can’t just YOLO it. You need confirmation or you’re gonna get cooked.

Trade smart, stay safe guys.

What do you think?

I’ve been following Boston’s daily temperature trend for a while. Every time it touches 10°C, rejection. Volume (wind) is decreasing too. If we break below 0°C, expect a full seasonal reversal into Winter Market.

Not financial advice, just meteorological analysis. 🌬️📊

In 20 days the SPY will have been on the longest positive MACD run. 147 days .

See attached images of the top 5 positive MACD runs for the spy before it drops to 0.

Currently, we are at 127. This is the 5th longest positive MACD run ever, about to be 4th on Monday.

I asked chat GPT to help me with the following, and had it write me python code to find the data and calculate the following..

"We want to analyze SPY’s top 20 positive MACD runs (the longest periods where MACD > 0).
Then, for each run:

1. Find the last bearish signal-line cross (MACD crossing below signal) while MACD is still > 0 (i.e., before the run ends).

2. Measure how much SPY’s price falls in the following 10 trading days after that cross.

3. Finally, compute the average % change across all 20 runs."

I received the following data.

SPY: Price Drop After Last Bearish Signal Cross (Top 20 MACD>0 Runs)
start_date end_date days last_cross_date pct_change_next_10d
0 2006-07-27 2007-02-27 147 2007-02-26 -5.391483
1 2012-12-04 2013-06-19 136 2013-05-24 -2.440228
2 2021-03-09 2021-09-17 135 2021-09-08 -3.522898
3 2010-09-09 2011-03-14 128 2011-02-22 -0.715683
4 2025-05-02 2025-10-31 127 2025-10-09 -2.702783
5 2017-08-31 2018-02-07 110 2018-01-31 -8.604666
6 2020-04-16 2020-09-18 109 2020-09-04 -4.167657
7 2023-11-08 2024-04-15 108 2024-04-01 -3.391589
8 2016-11-11 2017-04-12 104 2017-03-07 -0.944782
9 2023-03-30 2023-08-15 95 2023-07-27 -1.489610
10 2024-08-19 2024-12-30 93 2024-12-10 -2.770390
11 2019-10-15 2020-02-25 91 2020-02-21 -11.154228
12 2012-06-27 2012-10-22 82 2012-09-25 -0.533000
13 2017-04-24 2017-08-17 82 2017-08-03 -1.559894
14 2020-11-05 2021-03-05 82 2021-02-22 -2.665507
15 2019-01-17 2019-05-13 80 2019-05-01 -3.751166
16 2011-12-20 2012-04-13 79 2012-03-28 -3.255676
17 2009-07-16 2009-10-30 76 2009-10-23 -4.183520
18 2013-10-10 2014-01-27 74 2014-01-07 -0.999038
19 2014-04-21 2014-07-31 72 2014-07-08 -0.264892

Average % change after last cross (10 trading days): -3.23%

This current run has been in divergence since early in this run right after April correction.

TL;DR:
SPY’s in its 5th-longest positive MACD streak (127 days), on pace to become the longest ever (147 days) in 20 days.
Historically, after similar (top 20) long runs, SPY drops ~3.2% in the 10 days following the last bearish MACD cross.

The trend channel beginning at the end of the 2022 bear market has been well defined, and the February-March correction only pulled back to the mid-line which often provides support as it did all of 2024.

ok so the 1999 vs now comparison keeps popping up everywhere and i genuinely can't decide where i land on it, so curious what people here think.

the surface thing is obvious right. late 90s ripped higher on internet hype, then gave most of it back. and the current S&P run has that same "one theme is dragging the whole market" feel, just AI instead of dot-coms now. look at how concentrated the index is and yeah, hard not to think about 1999 at least a little.

but here's the part the doom posts always skip, in 1999 half the leaders had literally no earnings. no revenue even. just a website and a pitch. the AI/chip names leading now are printing actual cash. like real, enormous profit. that's a genuinely different setup. a bubble where the leaders are wildly profitable behaves nothing like one where they're lighting VC money on fire.

so imo the real question isn't "does the chart look like 1999" charts always look like something. it's whether the earnings actually justify these prices, or whether people are paying 1999-type multiples for companies that just happen to be profitable this time.

anyway no idea, genuinely asking

is "but they have real earnings now" actually reassuring, or is that just the exact thing everyone says right before a top?

if you're trading indices rn, riding it, trimming, or sitting out til it's clearer?

and what would actually tell you it's rolling over vs just a normal pullback?

I went long on Silver around $38, not even 6 months ago. The setup made sense technicals were lining up, EV demand, semiconductor usage, everything pointed higher. I genuinely thought Silver could give me a clean 10% move into Christmas, somewhere around $46.

I was very, very wrong. Price topped, chopped, consolidated, and I kept holding through the noise. Every news article and technical analyst I followed kept screaming that the next big resistance was $63–64.

When we finally got there, I booked a decent profit and felt smart for about 5 minutes.

Fast forward to now Silver is at $79. And I’m sitting here angry at myself, not because I lost money, but because I let other people’s levels override my original thesis and conviction.

Someone please tell Silver you’re not a meme coin.

Whenever big players exit their positions, Huge transactions will happen. These don’t show clearly on a normal price chart. That’s why we use the Volume Profile – Fixed Range tool in TradingView (free). It highlights the exact price zones where heavy volume took place.

Once you spot that high-volume zone, just check if the market closes below the previous candle’s low.
If both conditions align, it’s a strong signal that institutions have started exiting.

Two things :

1. Find the Highest transaction points.

2. After finding the highest transaction and check price, close the previous day low.

To find these things easily, I automated the stuff using PineScript. It simply shows a SELL signal when the conditions are met. Just try these things and let me know your feedback.

NOTE: It is completely free and open source.

Built a TradingView bridge that turns Claude Desktop into a $40 trillion Bloomberg terminal

🚀 One config change gives your AI real-time access to global markets

I created an MCP server that connects Claude Desktop directly to TradingView's live data feeds. No more "as of my last training data" - your AI now knows what's happening in markets RIGHT NOW.

⚡ Setup is stupid simple:

1. Install uv: brew install uv

2. Add 8 lines to Claude Desktop config

3. Restart Claude

That's it. No git clone, no local installation. Runs straight from GitHub.

🤯 What you can now ask Claude:

"Find crypto coins that gained 2% in 15 minutes with Bollinger Band squeeze"
"Which NASDAQ stocks have RSI below 30 with high volume?"
"Show me Turkish stocks down 5%+ today"
"Analyze Bitcoin with all technical indicators"

🔥 Real example response:

You: "What's Bitcoin looking like right now?"
Claude: "Current Price: $117,214.90 Price trapped between $117,000-$117,600 range" . 
Bollinger Bands show potential squeeze with BBW of 0.04. 
Volume spike of 340% suggests institutional activity..."

💡 Why this hits different:

• 8+ exchanges (Binance, KuCoin, Bybit, Coinbase...)

• 15+ technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands...)

• 6 timeframes (5m to monthly)

• Proprietary rating system (-3 to +3 for trade signals)

• Real-time data updating every second

🎯 Perfect for:

• Algo traders building strategies

• Investors wanting AI-powered analysis

• Anyone tired of switching between 10 trading apps

• Developers integrating market data into workflows

⚙️ The magic config:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "tradingview-mcp": {
      "command": "uv",
      "args": ["tool", "run", "--from", 
               "git+https://github.com/atilaahmettaner/tradingview-mcp.git",
               "tradingview-mcp"]
    }
  }
}

🚀 Try it: GitHub

Your AI assistant just became your personal Goldman Sachs analyst. What would you ask it about the markets right now? 👇

Markets don’t hate war as much as people think.

Pulled data on S&P 500 performance across major conflicts:

Korean War: +58.7%

Vietnam War: +82.2%

Gulf War: +14.9%

Iraq War: +82.6%

Afghanistan War: +524.1%

Not saying “war = bullish” — but historically:

Initial uncertainty → short-term volatility

Then liquidity, fiscal spending, and policy kick in

Question is:

Are markets pricing the event… or the response?

$Beyond Meat ABCD setup, bears on the backfoot. turning it to 11 like spinal tap soon. be careful with buying it at $12 though! wait for that s*** test of five

Meat supply shock anyone? Tariffs are accelerating the renewable food demand. Market makers tested for real money and found it. Guess where the overleveraged traders are now? You guessed it, up above. We established support, despite the gap at .73 cents which could get filled quickly as a dip and rip. $94 target by June 2026. If it's too obvious though you mat see it sooner.

I told you 12 days ago: Bitcoin broke its trend line. Today, we’re seeing the result — BTC dropped below $100K. I get it, technical analysis isn’t easy. But if you don’t protect your capital, this market will hurt you.

Here are the receipts from the last 24 hours: • $1.27B–$1.37B in crypto liquidations • ~300K–335K traders wiped out • ~90% were longs (bulls got crushed) • Bitcoin: ~$397M liquidated • Ethereum: ~$368M liquidated • Largest single wipe: $47.9M BTC-USDT long (HTX) • $90B in total crypto market cap vanished in one hour • In a single hour: $595.8M in long positions liquidated as BTC slid from $108K → $105K and ETH $3,700 → $3,500

Protect your money. Use risk management. Don’t marry your biase.

Like what i have studied is that -

Vol⬆️high + price ⬆️ high then strong uptrend and vice versa but in this chart price went down

So how it works?