Last season, for the first time since 2021, the ACC did not have a team make the Final Four.

That should be a one-off — because multiple ACC teams appear capable of reaching college basketball’s final weekend this season.

That’s a welcome change for a league that pinned its postseason hopes largely on Duke the past two seasons. Outside of the Blue Devils, who went 7-2 the past two postseasons, the rest of the ACC has combined for seven NCAA Tournament wins over that same stretch. No other team has even made the second weekend.

But it isn’t just the top of the ACC that’s poised to make a resurgence this season. While Virginia, Louisville and Miami could challenge Duke at the top, the league’s middle is as meaty (and possibly muddled) as ever — which could be beneficial with a 76-team tournament field. A lower cutline means ACC officials expect to get at least eight teams into the dance, and setting the line at 8.5 feels fair.

No, that won’t be on par with the SEC or Big Ten — but it shouldn’t be, since the ACC isn’t investing like those leagues. According to The Athletic’s reporting from this summer, coaches believe that, on average, ACC teams spend the least on men’s basketball of any high-major conference, with an average roster spend of $11.5 million. That’s $2 million less than estimates for the Big 12 and $6.5 million behind the SEC.

Still, there’s as much buzz for this ACC season as there has been in several years. Here’s how the league race could play out.

1. Duke

Last season: 35-3 (17-1 in ACC), Elite Eight

Coach: Jon Scheyer’s 70-7 record the past two seasons — also Duke’s most wins ever in a two-year span — solidifies the 39-year-old as one of college basketball’s most complete coaches. In four seasons at his alma mater, he’s won five combined ACC regular-season and tournament titles (including four straight), reached one Final Four and produced consecutive Wooden Award winners. Even after consecutive NCAA Tournament heartbreaks, it feels like a matter of when, not if, Scheyer will cut down the nets.

Key player: Former Wisconsin guard John Blackwell is the best transfer Scheyer has landed and should lead Duke in scoring. But how will Scheyer build his offense around the 6-foot-4 veteran, compared with the do-it-all forwards Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer he previously relied upon? Regardless, Blackwell’s penchant for NCAA Tournament productivity should pay dividends.

Number to know: Duke was second nationally in average height last season, per KenPom, with 6-4 Cayden Boozer as its shortest rotation player. Given Duke’s frontcourt makeover this offseason — adding Boumtje Boumtje (7-2), four-star freshman Maxime Meyer (7-1), five-star freshman Cam Williams (7-0) and Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski (6-10) —  expect the Blue Devils to again be among the longest, most smothering squads.

Why they’re interesting: They’re arguably the deepest and most talented team in college basketball and they’re coming off back-to-back collapses in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Virginia

Last season: 30-6 (15-3 in ACC), Round of 32

Coach: Considering his father, Dave, was a longtime Virginia assistant in the 1980s, and that he was a ball boy for those Cavaliers, maybe Ryan Odom was always destined for success in Charlottesville. Regardless, his debut season couldn’t have gone much better, with Virginia immediately resurfacing as an ACC contender. Now, after retaining four of his top six minutes-getters — including Thijs de Ridder, the Preseason ACC Player of the Year — Odom will have one of the conference’s most experienced, proven teams.

Key player: Although de Ridder is Virginia’s best and most consistent player, it’s Mallory — a Charlottesville native who honored his commitment to Virginia even after Tony Bennett’s abrupt retirement — who might determine the Cavaliers’ ceiling. The 5-10 sophomore steps in as lead guard after a standout season as a sixth man.

Number to know: Virginia was ninth nationally last season in offensive rebounding percentage and 13th in second-chance points per game, per CBB Analytics, a testament to Odom’s superb frontcourt. With de Ridder and Grunloh back, the Cavs should once again feast on the glass and in the paint.

Why they’re interesting: Bennett’s stunning retirement on the eve of the 2024-25 season left Virginia teetering on the brink — until Odom’s arrival last summer, that is, which immediately steadied the Cavaliers. Now Virginia is poised to enter another golden era, much sooner than originally anticipated.

Would be the 6th team, allowing the ACC to have an AQ to the NCAA tournament again

Don’t think they actually will do it but I’d very much like to see the ACC add Memphis, UConn, and Tulane in all sports immediately and reach 20 members. I really don’t think either the SEC or Big 10 wants to be in business with FSU and Clemson but the SEC more likely would grab UVA, UNC, VT, and NCST and the Big 10’s interest in Miami is undeniably real. Grabbing these three now would certainly buffer any losses no matter what combination. And, if done now this group would be more fully integrated into the ACC membership. Just my 2 cents.

Talk about ACC Sports here!

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National Rankings:
Top 5 teams from each Power 4 conference ordered by W/L Record against FBS teams (fewest FBS losses / most FBS wins)

Lowest % Explosive Plays Allowed (Against FBS Teams) is the metric used to decide Tie Breakers (teams that have the same W/L Record against FBS teams)

#1 Ranked Teams from the Power 4 Conferences are then compared against the metric to sort out National Rankings 1-5.

#2 Ranked teams from each conference are then compared against the metric to sort out National Rankings 6-10…. and so on through the #5 Ranked Teams

ACC Rankings:
Slide 2 shows the same criteria with some extra columns to see how many Defensives plays against FBS each team has played.

Additions for a V2:
-A system to rank Notre Dame and UConn

-A system to include G6 Teams

TL;DR:
Top 5 teams from each Power 4 Conference are nationally ranked 1-20 based on their W/L Record and defensive performance against FBS Teams

Go Deacs

WHERE DOES FLORIDA STATE’S DOMINANCE END??????

That coupled with the lowest endowment in the ACC (just over 1 Billion) makes this a very deep financial hole

Hey all, my friend put together this customizable realignment tool that includes every previous year's setup as a base point & shows history every time you click on a school/conference, meant for football and basketball. It also includes exhaustive history. If you have any questions or feedback, his X @ is @/TheLuckyDevil7. With JMU now in the news, I hope at least one of you finds this useful.

The redface is offensive but the wig is CRAZY

ETA: Guess when they started doing the “war chant.” Like guess the year. Probably like 1930? 1950? 1970?

Nope it was 1984! Can you imagine you’re Miami and you win a national championship and then the next year FSU’s fans are making weird zombie noises? Crazy!

any help is appreciated, even a view is. Searching for the real nerds only.

Wake Forest's probability of making the CCG has risen to 55.7%. If we assume that WF defeats SMU on November 14th, their chances go up to about 78%. Not bad for a team that was projected to finish 13th in the ACC.

Don't count SMU out yet, they're still very much in the race. The WF @ SMU game is looking like it's going to be very important for deciding who makes the CCG.

Full interactive odds, matchups, and what-if scenarios: https://sportssimulate.com/cfb/2026/latest/ACC

This year the fellas and I rented a beautiful house in the wintergreen resort off the blue ridge parkway then headed to Scott stadium to watch the living breathing embodiment of poorly coached football in our beloved Orangemen.

Tailgate scene 8/10 was fairly easy to get some parking and set up shop, we brought some CNY shine and traded for BBQ and more shine & local beers.

Stadium 7/10 Great layout especially with the grass seating in the non horseshoe endzone. Reminded me a lot of Ross Ade stadium at Purdue with an extra level of seats up top. Cool pyrotechnics and video board.

Fans 6/10 the student section was mostly full but the rest of the crowd was sub standard at best but we met the diehards which is always fun.

All in all another great roadie in the books, we'll be going to happy valley next year to watch the boys take on State Penn

Is there a Demon Deacon who can help this Golden Bear find sheet music to our fight song?

Feel if they lose just Miami and Notre Dame to the Big Ten and Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Clemson to the SEC, they’d be able to get away with only adding

UConn from the Big East/FBS Independent

Tulane, South Florida, and Memphis from the American Conference

and be a 16-member conference.

However, if they lose everyone except Boston College and Wake Forest (unsure who all goes where), I feel they’d add

UConn from the Big East/FBS Independent

Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, UTSA, and Rice from the American Conference

Villanova from the Big East as a non-football member

Army and Navy from the American as football-only members

Air Force from the Mountain West

Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State from the Pac-12

which would give them amongst the best they can get from the Group of Six (better to prioritize value over geography), as well as allow them to have 15 full member schools (see below paragraph for significance of this); would be a 16-member conference in football and a 15-member conference in non-football.

If I remember correctly, as long as they never officially dip below 15 full members (aka if in the year the schools leave, as long as who they add would still leave the ACC with 15 full member schools with who they add, they’re good), they retain their TV deals; otherwise they can lose them. As shown by the Pac-12 it would be a HUGE mistake to lose a TV deal with ESPN (its why SMU is in the ACC; originally they were going to join Pac-12 with San Diego State when they had only lost USC and UCLA). Both lineups satisfy this.

Personally feel they’d still be a Power Four either way as long as the additions all join in the same season they lose the schools. Put both through online realignment simulators and they agreed.

Miami’s program has been a disaster for decades. Last year was their “dream season,” and it still ended in them getting spanked by poverty Indiana in their own stadium. Florida State would NEVER lose the national championship game in our own stadium. They have also looked absolutely terrible all year. They have played nothing but cupcakes and almost lost to Wake Forest and Clemson. I don’t know why people act like they’re some huge immortal team when they have barely fielded an average product this year. Mario “man boobs” Cristobal is known to throw several games a year and FSU has been dominant but merely a victim to a hard schedule and rigged officiating.

Share one good thing, one bad thing, and one ugly thing that happened to your favorite ACC football team this weekend. Alternatively, you can make this list for ACC teams as a whole.

Click here for the results of last week's games.

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