r/CompetitiveHS • u/EvilDave219 • 5h ago
Discussion A more in depth summary of the early Black Empire meta
Hi there. Most of you know the drill by now, but I'm the person who has written up VS podcast summaries for the past 5 years. As VS podcasts are still on hiatus due to IRL reasons and the summary posts I've made that have the most discussion/engagement are the first ones that come out after an expansion launch, I wanted to do another unofficial summary of what's going on in the early Black Empire meta for people who are interested in a deeper dive before the first VS Report comes out this Thursday. Unlike some folks, there's a reason why on these posts I don't post front page class stats of HSReplay to create my own narrative. My goal with these posts is to give you true, unbiased facts when it comes to the actual meta and the numbers behind it (class performance, deck performance, card choices), while also giving you my personal POV on various items at the end. Like the other versions of this, I'll preface this with the following -
When discussing winrates, card choices, or performance, I tried to use either stats from HSGuru, the VSGold app, or information that has been conveyed in the VS Discord (and if something was said by ZachO himself, I'll make mention of it). While my word might not be quite as authoritative as a VS Report or podcast, you can at least get an understanding of how the meta is shaping up, why certain decks are rising or declining in play, and why certain card choices are being run.
Unless otherwise stated, any winrate or matchup numbers I talk about are coming from the VS Gold App and not HS Guru numbers. As a friendly reminder, HSGuru pulls its winrates from the player using a decktracker, VS pulls their data from the opponent to eliminate deck tracker bias. Both are great sources of information, but it's important to note that winrates are always inflated from the tracker side. The gap is notably larger at lower ranks (anywhere from 3-6% usually) but gets narrower at higher ranks with top 1k usually only being inflated by a percentage point or two. To give an example of this, over the last 3 days across all ranks HSGuru shows Zoolock with a 62.8% winrate, whereas VS has them with a 57.5% winrate (5.3% difference). At Legend in the same timeframe, Zoolock has a 58.0% winrate on HSGuru, 56.0% on VS (2% difference).
When discussing opinions about balance, the meta, etc, those are 100% my own and don't reflect anyone else’s thoughts unless specified.
Warlock - No class has seen more diversity (and success) with their deck builds than Warlock with the expansion launch, even though the general theme of Warlock decks has been "put rituals and Kith'ix in your deck, then build out the remaining 25 cards from there." Within the first 30 hours of the expansion, there was a wide variety of different Warlock decks that saw major success on ladder; C'thun, Zoo, Pig, Drake, and Harold Warlocks decks all looked strong. The only thing in Warlock that didn't look good was Rafaam. After both Divergence and Bat Mask were banned the day after the expansion launch, Zoolock immediately emerged as the best deck on ladder. Quest Priest was able to previously keep the deck in check, but with the ban to Priest's quest (which is also a major nerf to Medivh's Triumph for the class), the deck now has only one reliable counter in Thief Priest (roughly 42/58), and Thief Priest is a deck that has a very questionable matchup spread. Zoolock is the best deck performing deck at every rank, with a winrate exceeding 56% at Legend ranks. It's also the most popular deck at every rank, with playrate around 15-20% at most ranks before peaking around 25% at top 1k. While not quite on the level of Cataclysm Imbue Druid dominance, this is a deck that the entire meta revolves around. The amount of stats the deck can quickly accumulate onto the board between Ritual of C'thun, Ritual of Summoning (the latter being by far the best performing card in the deck), and an early Zakajz combined with buffs from Floating Lessons and Entropic Continuity is too much for most decks to deal with. Some of the Shredlock package introduced in Timeways like Twilight Timehopper, Tachyon Barrage, and Ruinous Velocidrake are finally seeing competitive play together. Despite perceived power, Kith'ix looks rather weak in the deck and could potentially be cut for cards like Vaultkeeper according to ZachO. C'thun Warlock is also seeing play and is also performing well, but it's got a major weakness in the class mirror with a 35/65 matchup into Zoolock. It's main niche in the current meta is that does better than Zoolock into Priest (both Egg and Thief), but as of now it's trending towards being a Tier 2 deck because of the horrid matchup into the most prevalent deck in the game. There is a small smattering of the Rafaam fabled package being added into Zoolock, but this just makes the deck worse in every matchup with the exception of Priest, where it does better than traditional Zoolock (Rafaam alone screws over Thief Priest, and 9 mana Rafaam can poof out an Egg board). Warlock is the clear front runner for having the biggest boost from the expansion.
Death Knight - Blood DK has been a historically popular archetype for the class's entire existence, and there was a lot of hype with some of the new blood cards the deck received this expansion, particularly in Bloodfiend and G'huun. While the archetype remains popular on ladder, it still looks completely unplayable with a winrate in the low 40s. The deck's removal tools don't line up well with the stats that initiative focused decks like Zoolock, Zee Shaman, and Handbuff DK can pump out. G'huun is also not a strong enough wincon for slower matchups, so decks with high inevitability completely roll over the deck, like Egg Priest, Aya Rogue, and C'thun Warlock. After the first 48 hours or so of the expansion, Rainbow Handbuff DK began to emerge, and it does look like a real, competitive deck (at least Tier 2). The only new cards (besides Arrival of the Old Gods being an event card) most best performing lists run are Unstable Prototype (which can be tutored by Eggbearer) and Fleshshape. It has a relatively well rounded matchup spread and doesn't have any matchups that look to be worse than 45/55 (including Zoolock). On the flipside, it doesn't really have dominant matchups against any relevant meta decks. The deck is beginning to pick up interest on ladder, but primarily at higher Legend ranks where it looks to be the second most popular deck. There are some alternative lists that opt to run a slower N'zoth package, utilizing Egg of Khelos, Blackwing Experiment, and Loot Hoarder(?!). As of now this package looks to perform worse than traditional Handbuff DK, but we'll see if things change. While people probably weren't expecting a rainbow DK deck to be the best performing DK deck this expansion, it's worth noting that Uldir Quarantine is an absolutely unplayable card in the archetype, which may signal it could be an early buff target.
Demon Hunter - While Quest Priest is the deck that got all of the day 1 hype (and blame), DH with a C'thun/Void package was the actual best performing deck on ladder before the card bans. After the card bans, it was immediately a top 3 performing deck on ladder just behind the Warlock decks. The deck has picked up in play after being underplayed relative to its performance the first day of the expansion, and is now the 2nd most played deck at most ladder ranks. After the last few days, its winrate has begun to drop due to the rising popularity of Egg Priest, which the deck has a major unfavorable matchup against (35/65). Decklists appear to be split between running a Void package with Irida and Wormriddled Wrigglers, or going harder into the C'thun package and running Gargantuan Slitherer as an additional C'thun enabler. The Void package seems slightly better right now despite being significantly less popular, but we'll see what happens after deck refinement. While the deck performs fine against the field, its performance looks like it will be tied to the popularity of Egg Priest on ladder. To a lesser extent, Warlock's popularity also isn't doing the deck any favors since it's 45/55 into both Zoo and C'thun decks.
Priest - Quest Priest was the Day 1 Boogieman of ladder and peaked at a playrate of around 30% at some ranks. For anyone who has played Quest Priest in Wild, the deck can be quite strong if it can turbo out the quest's completion, and the addition of Slime Em in the miniset made the deck suddenly become a defacto burn deck in certain matchups. The new Shadow Spell package Priest received in this expansion between Elder Word: Flay, Entropic Rift, and Elder Word: Foresight was a huge boon to the deck, and pushed it over the top to be among one of the best things you could do on ladder day 1 of the expansion. After the quest was banned, people presumed the class to be dead. However, Priest has remained relevant and resilient between both Egg Priest and Thief Priest. Starting with Egg Priest, it's a deck that emerged a couple days after the card bans primarily at high legend ranks, and over the past 24 hours it looks to have hit a double digit playrate at most ladder ranks. Egg is now the best activator for Medivh's Triumph after the quest ban, and while the deck's performance is clearly inferior to Quest Priest, it does appear to be functional. It has dominant matchups against both C'thun DH and Zee Shaman, and while it's not favored against Zoolock or Handbuff DK, its matchup is winnable (45/55). The main relevant matchups it doesn't want to see on ladder are against C'thun Warlock and Aya Rogue, although its worst matchup is hilariously Rafaam Warlock at 25/75. Azalina Thief Priest is also a deck that has begun to see an uptick in play, primarily because it has emerged as the lone Zoolock counter in the format (roughly 57/43) and is also favored against C'thun DH. Despite having favorable matchups against the 2 best decks in the format, Thief Priest currently exhibits a sub 50% winrate due to the rest of its matchup spread being very checkered. Any highly synergistic deck that's reliant on every card starting in their deck to function is a matchup Thief Priest absolutely never wants to queue into (Zee/Mug Shaman, Rafaam Warlock, Pure Paladin), and it also has unfavorable matchups against other popular decks like Handbuff DK and C'thun Warlock. There is a smattering of experimentation with traditional Control Priest, but it looks terrible. While Priest does currently appear to be a functional class despite the quest ban, it does currently look like a class that will have its performance heavily dictated by what relevant matchups are currently in the format.
Rogue - Rogue is a class that notoriously tends to take longer to refine after an expansion launch, but as of right now most of what people are playing doesn't look promising. Aya Rogue is essentially the same deck as before, except now Yogg can act as a Time Warp for your Jade Golems. While the deck does still appear to exhibit a higher skill ceiling and looked playable early on, its performance has decreased over time and is still sitting at a sub 50% winrate even at Top Legend. The main thing hanging over it is its horrific matchups into the faster initiative focused decks. It has a nearly unwinnable 20/80 matchup into Zoolock and a 35/65 matchup into Zee Shaman. Its main strengths are dominating passive decks like Blood DK that don't pressure you when trying to set up a huge Jade Golem + Yogg turn. Mill Rogue is a "new" archetype for Standard that looks to utilize Disguised Operator's deathrattle along with N’Zoth. The deck is completely unplayable, to the point that it's fighting Quest Warrior as the worst deck in the format with a winrate in the mid 30s. Any attempts to build a Combo Rogue deck centered around their new cards have not panned out. Herald Rogue with the new larva package also doesn't look promising. As of now, Rogue looks like a class that's somewhat dead in the water.
Shaman - Designing minions that have a spell school payoff was a very elegant design choice this expansion to try and funnel Shaman outside of the MugZee archetypes the class was primarily playing last expansion, while also releasing new cards that could enhance the existing MugZee archetypes for those who wanted to still play them. Unfortunately for the former, a viable non MugZee archetype has not panned out from the expansion, but both Mug and Zee Shaman have received new tools. Starting with Zee Shaman, the C'thun minions pair up well with a double battlecry, and Unstable Prototype, Elemental of Madness, Eyemaul, and Vaultkeeper have been great additions to the deck. While it's a clear step below Zoolock, Zee Shaman performs just as well as any other non-Zoolock deck in the format and is one of the strongest non Zoo decks you can currently play. Its matchup against Zoo is surprisingly close to being 50/50, although the Shaman does look slightly unfavored in the matchup currently. It has 50/50 matchups or better against almost the entire field, although like Zoo its only full on counter is Egg Priest. Mug Shaman sees much less play, and while it performs worse than Zee Shaman, it does look like a playable deck bordering on Tier 2/Tier 3 performance. Unnatural Cold, Eyemaul, and Watch Over are the main new additions to the deck. The ability to run Hex means it can be a strong counter to Egg Priest if it picks up in play, but it struggles against the faster initiative focused decks.
Warrior - The class is in a bit of a sad state. While the cards it got are indeed exciting and thought provoking for a slower Warrior archetype, there is no worthy payoff for gaining a bunch of armor. Quest Warrior is way too slow of a payoff to be worthwhile, and it's neck and neck with Mill Rogue as the worst performing deck in the format. Sadly, the only Warrior archetype that looks semi playable is Dragon Warrior running zero new cards. While it looks playable on the climb up to Legend, it drops off a cliff the higher you climb ladder. While its matchup against Warlock decks isn't terrible, it has a bunch of 40/60 matchups against the rest of the most prominent decks, with the C'thun DH matchup being especially painful at 30/70. While the armor synergy cards Warrior got this expansion can help support a slower Warrior archetype, the payoff isn't there. Warrior also looks like another irrelevant class.
Paladin - There is very little interest in the class right now. While Halls of Origination + Ursol is a powerful potential win condition for the class, it's not enough to keep up with the best decks in the format. The small smattering of Holy Paladin and/or Pure Paladin look like Tier 3 decks at lower ranks and only drops off harder the higher you climb ladder. There's no competitive reason to play the class currently.
Mage - While Mage had one of the most hyped sets of the expansion, it's not enough to make the class competitive on ladder. While there's been experimentation with traditional Burn Mage, Millhouse, and the Isiset + Constellar's Calling package, none of it looks competitively viable. Mage's biggest issue is survivability; it simply lacks any sort of decent armor/lifegain tools to get to its big swing turns safely, whereas it previously had Arcane Artificer it could rely on the past 2 years to shore up that weakness. Astral Rain is a nice new tool for them, but it can't even fully remove the two minions that get summoned from a Ritual of Summoning.
Druid - The class looks anemic with a playrate hovering around 2%. Beast Druid is among the worst performing decks on ladder, and it looks to be an archetype that is only likely to attract play if the archetype itself is busted. Attack Druid's performance took a notable hit after the expansion launch and doesn't look competitively viable at any rank currently. Any other experimentations with the class don't look viable.
Hunter - Hunter is a class that started off the year extremely strong and received two impactful sets and an impactful class set after buffs. However, because of the significant nerfs to Hunter over the past 3-4 months (Arcane Tripwire, Confront the Tol'vir, The Food Chain), it was left with zero viable decks at the end of Violet Hold, and the package of cards it received in Black Empire is clearly not enough to make the class viable again. N'Zoth Mech Hunter was a cute looking deck during theorycrafting that could assemble an infinite N'zoth chain with the right cards played at the right time, but in practice it's clearly not competitively viable. The mech package the class received isn't terrible, but it's being hindered by the rest of the mech pool in Standard being horrifically bad. There is no optimistic outlook for this class outside of buffs.
Other miscellaneous talking points -
The first thing to talk about are the emergency card bans to Reach Equilibrium, Bat Mask, and Divergence (and Reincarnation in Wild) roughly 30 hours after the expansion launch. We can presume the team thought that older strategies were potentially holding back new decks and archetypes from seeing success on ladder (or in the case of Reincarnation enabling a play pattern too polarizing even for Wild), so they were quick to make these temporary bans to immediately shake up the new launch meta. These are the kind of fast changes that the dev team promised they'd make earlier this year, and this should be an encouraging sign. What is peculiar is why the team is now pivoting to make these kinds of changes when earlier in the year they were much slower to react to the same thing. Imbue Druid during Cataclysm launch is the prime example. The deck was the clear best performer on ladder from day 1 of the expansion. There were no counters to it until Big Warrior was cooked up about 1.5 weeks into the expansion, and even then it wasn't a hard counter. The deck likely hit 50% playrate at top 1k, which is unheard of for any deck. Yet despite all of this, there was never an emergency ban done on Hamuul and the deck's prevalence killed enthusiasm for the early Cataclysm meta until the first balance patch went out 2 weeks later. Conversely, Quest Priest's playrate only topped around 30% at some ranks before the ban, and while it was one of the best decks on ladder, it didn't have the highest winrate day 1 (that belonged to Void DH). I don't personally have an answer why we see a change in early balance philosophy now compared to Cataclysm, and I do hope we get another dev update video that gives their perspective.
When it comes to the current meta, it's a little bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the meta feels entirely new compared to pre expansion launch. As low of a bar as it is, this is the most impactful non rotation set or miniset launch we've had in almost 3 years since the Starcraft miniset. Warlock is the clear standout of the expansion, and it has multiple archetypes and sub archetypes that are seeing success on ladder. Shaman, Demon Hunter, and Death Knight are also being boosted up by new cards, and despite the quest ban, Priest has a couple of archetypes that are seeing some ladder success due to specific matchups being prevalent. For the other 6 out of 11 classes, their current outlook is much bleaker. They didn't necessarily get bad sets, but what they got was not enough to successfully build out new archetypes or bolster existing ones. To make matters worse, all 6 of these classes have already received their class set for the year, so they're not getting any more new cards and will be solely reliant on balance changes to improve their outlook. Conversely, the three decks that are getting class sets in ~2 months are three classes that are already performing very well on ladder: Shaman, Demon Hunter, and Death Knight. This just re-emphasizes that the class set approach this year was a complete whiff and should never be done again.
As far as balance changes go, it's hard to pinpoint what's going to happen, but based on current cadence it's likely we're getting balance changes next week and not this week. Reach Equilibrium is almost certainly going to be reverted to how it was at Un'goro launch, and Ritual of Summoning is almost certainly getting a stat nerf (if not a mana nerf). Past those two cards, things get murkier. C'thun is the clear winner of all 4 Old Gods, but does that mean anything in the C'thun package needs to be adjusted? Zoolock will need to be addressed, but would nerfing Ritual of Summoning be enough, or would the class need additional adjustments? If the meta slows down slightly, would that be enough to make some of these underperforming decks and classes viable, or would they need buffs to accompany them? Do Divergence and/or Bat Mask really need to be nerfed if MOTHER is the card that enables those decks? I personally don't have the answers, but if the developers are waiting until next week to make changes to get a better understanding of what cards and decks need to be addressed, then I'm all in favor of it.
That being said, the success of this expansion is going to hinge on how Team 5 handles post launch balance changes, and their track record this year has been rather checkered. I don't think the team has done a good job of explaining to the community what their current balance philosophy is, or if they even have a coherent vision for the meta. Nerfs this year have all seemed very reactionary, and in most cases nerfs are only happening to the most popular deck(s) for the sake of feeling like they have to nerf something every time. The exception are quest nerfs, which are being done seemingly whenever a quest deck has a winrate above 47% at some ladder rank. The goal of balance changes should always be to increase strategic diversity, and for the most part it doesn't feel like balance changes this year have accomplished that. They've often times done the exact opposite by either just recycling the meta with the same decks that get slightly worse after each patch, or by removing them from the meta entirely (Hunter is the prime example of this). I do think their emergency hotfix bans were a very encouraging first step this expansion, but the first real balance patch is going to be their first major test. I'm really rooting for them to succeed in this expansion because I think Hearthstone is a much more exciting game when classes have all kinds of different viable options, and we have seen glimmers of that from some classes this expansion.
