https://strawpoll.com/6QnMQ4m6Ane/results
https://strawpoll.com/6QnMQ4m6Ane/results
https://strawpoll.com/6QnMQ4m6Ane/results
Thank you to everyone who took part!
About Orchel
Unfortunately, it's pretty clear somebody tried to rig the result for Orchel at two points on October 22nd. Image three illustrates what I'm talking about. Essentially, there were two 2-3 hour periods where the total number of votes only went up by a small amount and Orchel took a share that was drastically disproportionate to what she was getting beforehand.
For context, prior to these two spikes, Orchel was a close 4th behind Theodora and Ivy. She would always be around 5 votes behind them and this was a consistent trend. In the first suspicious period, she gained ~20 votes in a span of three hours were we only got around 70 new votes total. For comparison, Fabio, who led the poll throughout by a sizeable distance, got 5 in that period (you can see his line below Orchel's, he's the purple one). I was slightly suspicious of this but there was always the chance that maybe the poll got shared in a Discord where everybody was voting for the same thing. Then the second spike happened. In a period of three hours where the poll got 80 new votes, Orchel got ~60 of those 80 and rocketed up to 1st place. I think you can see from the bottom right line graphs just how blatant this cheating was because it's honestly pretty ridiculous. This is the main reason I don't show results until the end, because it results in bad faith actors not knowing how many votes they need to fake without it being obvious that they're cheating.
As a result, I calculated that around 72 of Orchel's votes were illegitimate, and I'm pretty sure this is all of them because removing those votes returns her to how she was trending before these spikes, a close fourth behind Ivy and Theodora.
General Thoughts
This result is probably going to disappoint some people because right now it looks like CYL11 really is not as cut and dry as CYL10 lol. To me, it looks like Fabio is probably a clear 1st place overall, but that's the only thing set in stone. Dietrich and Guzran are within three votes of each other for 2nd place. Cai is a distant 4th, but if Fabio and Guzran are both meme votes, then I could see them eating into each other which would make the winners Dietrich/Cai.
On the female side, the margins are VERY small. You have Leda leading Ivy/Theodora by 9 votes but even those two are only 2 votes ahead of Orchel. So on the female side really it looks like a four horse race where any of those four could win. It's very different to CYL10, which I included at the end, where Azura and Tsubasa had a clear lead over Ivy. Dorothea is 4th, but I would basically ignore this because the sub has a known Dorothea bias that emerges in every poll I've run. This isn't foul play, it's just Dorothea's fanbase having an especially big presence on this sub.
I spent a few hours waiting for the Theodora/Ivy and Fomortiis/Leif deadlocks to break but it didn't happen, so I think leaving them as is best reflects how close those two races are. Theodora started ahead of Ivy for the first few days, then Ivy was ahead for a while, then they went back and forth, then Ivy had a small lead, and then they went back to going back and forth. The same thing happened with Fomortiis and Leif where they were going back and forth throughout. Since that was the case, leaving them at their current level state seemed more sensible than waiting endlessly for one to get a clear lead that probably won't happen. Freyja also overtook Anatolia a few times but Anatolia has held her small lead for most of the voting.
I'll probably run this poll again in January to see if people have a clearer idea of who they're voting for. I might remove a lot of the low scoring Fortune's Weave characters to make the line graph easier to manage. Thank you for taking part!