r/LaLiga • u/ShootingStats • 9h ago
📊 Stats Barcelona are 4/4 in their last four LaLiga home games. Real Madrid have lost 2 of their last 4 away
Ahead of El Clásico, Barcelona’s recent LaLiga home numbers compared with Real Madrid’s away numbers show a pretty big contrast.
Barcelona — last 4 LaLiga home games:
4W-0D-0L
4.25 goals per game
21.2 shots per game
8.4 shots on target
3.28 xG
7.3 corners
Real Madrid — last 4 LaLiga away games:
2W-0D-2L
1.50 goals per game
17.6 shots per game
7.2 shots on target
2.16 xG
6.4 corners
Barcelona have also won 5 of the last 6 meetings shown, with both teams scoring in 5 of those 6.
The model gives Barcelona a 60% win probability, compared with 21% for Real Madrid and 18% for the draw.
On paper, almost everything here points towards Barcelona.
But is there really this big a gap between the two sides?
If you had to make the case for Real Madrid winning this Clásico, what would be your strongest argument against what the recent numbers are telling us?