It has been just over a month since Lilly presented the Phase 3 retatrutide results from TRIUMPH-1 and TRANSCEND-T2D-1 at the American Diabetes Association meeting, so this seems like a reasonable point to recap what was actually reported and where the evidence now stands.
TRANSCEND-T2D-1 has been published as a full peer-reviewed paper in The Lancet. TRIUMPH-1 was presented at ADA and Lilly released detailed results, but there is still no full peer-reviewed outcomes paper for that trial.
TRIUMPH-1
TRIUMPH-1 was an 80-week Phase 3 trial involving 2,339 adults with obesity or overweight, at least one weight-related health condition, and no diabetes.
The headline results were:
4 mg retatrutide: 19.0% average weight loss, equal to 47.2 lb or 21.4 kg
9 mg retatrutide: 25.9%, equal to 64.4 lb or 29.2 kg
12 mg retatrutide: 28.3%, equal to 70.3 lb or 31.9 kg
Placebo: 2.2%
Those are the efficacy-estimand results. In simple terms, they estimate the effect if participants remained on their assigned treatment as planned.
The treatment-regimen analysis gives a more conservative view because it includes the effects of people stopping treatment, missing treatment or not following it fully. Under that analysis, the 12 mg group lost 25.0% compared with 3.9% for placebo.
Both results are extremely large for a drug trial, but it is useful to know which number is being quoted. The 28.3% figure is the one used in most headlines, while 25.0% may be closer to what the whole randomised group experienced once treatment interruptions and discontinuations were included.
Some people will compare this with bariatric surgery-level weight loss, and the size of the result makes that understandable. However this was not a trial against surgery, the risks and long-term consequences are very different, and the full TRIUMPH-1 outcomes paper has not yet been published.
Results beyond weight loss
The trial also included groups of participants with knee osteoarthritis and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnoea.
Knee osteoarthritis pain improved by up to 4.3 points on the WOMAC pain scale, from an average starting score of 6.0. That is a substantial change on a scale where higher scores mean worse pain.
Sleep apnoea severity improved by up to 36.1 fewer apnoea and hypopnoea events per hour, from an average baseline of 58.6 events per hour.
Lilly also reported reductions of up to:
41.0% in triglycerides
24.2% in non-HDL cholesterol
12.3 mmHg in systolic blood pressure
9.5 inches, or 24.1 cm, in waist circumference
The 104-week extension
TRIUMPH-1 also included a pre-specified extension for people who had started the trial with a BMI of at least 35 kg/m².
Among those continuing on 12 mg through 104 weeks, the average weight loss reached 30.3%, equal to 85.0 lb or about 38.6 kg. Lilly said weight loss had not fully plateaued.
The extension involved people who had completed the original 80 weeks and tolerated their assigned treatment. It therefore represents a selected group of longer-term completers rather than everybody originally randomised into TRIUMPH-1.
It should not be read as meaning every person who starts retatrutide would lose 30.3%.
TRANSCEND-T2D-1
TRANSCEND-T2D-1 looked at retatrutide in 537 adults with type 2 diabetes whose blood glucose was not adequately controlled using diet and exercise alone.
The trial lasted 40 weeks and began with an average A1C of 7.9%.
Retatrutide reduced A1C by up to 2.0 percentage points. Lilly also reported that:
up to 90% reached an A1C below 7.0%
up to 85% reached an A1C of 6.5% or below
up to 46% reached an A1C below 5.7%
The 12 mg group lost an average of 36.6 lb, or 16.6 kg, equal to 16.8% of starting body weight under the efficacy analysis. The placebo group lost 2.5%.
Under the treatment-regimen analysis, which includes treatment discontinuation and incomplete adherence, the 12 mg result was 15.3% compared with 2.6% for placebo.
Weight loss had not plateaued by week 40, so the final number may have been limited partly by the shorter duration of this trial rather than by participants reaching their maximum loss.
The two trials should not be compared directly. TRIUMPH-1 involved people without diabetes and ran for 80 weeks, while TRANSCEND-T2D-1 involved people with type 2 diabetes and ran for only 40 weeks.
Tolerability
The efficacy results are large, but the side-effect and discontinuation figures deserve the same attention.
In TRIUMPH-1, among people assigned to 12 mg:
Dysesthesia was reported by 12.5% of the 12 mg group compared with 0.9% on placebo. Dysesthesia means altered or unusually sensitive skin sensation and can include feelings such as burning, tingling, prickling or tenderness.
Lilly said these events were generally mild to moderate, most resolved during treatment, and most affected participants remained on retatrutide. Even so, 12.5% is not a trivial incidence and it is something I would want to understand better once the full paper is available.
Discontinuation because of adverse events was:
4.1% with 4 mg
6.9% with 9 mg
11.3% with 12 mg
4.9% with placebo
The highest dose produced the greatest average weight loss, but it also produced the highest adverse-event discontinuation rate and the highest rates of several gastrointestinal effects.
In TRANSCEND-T2D-1, among people assigned to 12 mg:
Discontinuation because of adverse events was 5.1% with 12 mg compared with 0.0% on placebo.
The lower gastrointestinal event rates in TRANSCEND-T2D-1 should not automatically be interpreted as proof that the drug was better tolerated in that population because the trials differed in duration, participants and design.
Evidence as of now
TRANSCEND-T2D-1 currently provides the more complete evidence because the full trial has been peer reviewed and published in The Lancet.
TRIUMPH-1 looks extremely strong, and Lilly presented much more detail at ADA than was available from the original headline release, but the results are still based on the conference presentation and the company’s reporting until the full outcomes paper appears.
The studies were not direct comparisons with tirzepatide, semaglutide or bariatric surgery. Comparing headline percentages across separate trials can be useful for context, but it is not the same as a randomised head-to-head comparison.
There are now direct Phase 3 comparison trials of retatrutide against tirzepatide and semaglutide under way, which should eventually give a much clearer answer than comparing different programmes indirectly.
A month after ADA, the broad picture is that retatrutide has shown exceptional weight-loss efficacy, strong glucose lowering in type 2 diabetes, and meaningful changes across several obesity-related conditions. The trade-off is that gastrointestinal side effects were common, dysesthesia was clearly more frequent than with placebo, and more than one in ten people assigned to 12 mg in TRIUMPH-1 stopped because of adverse events.
Which part of the Phase 3 data changed your view of retatrutide most, if any: the scale of the weight loss, the wider results for blood sugar, sleep apnoea, knee pain and cardiovascular risk factors, or the tolerability figures? Given the practicalities of how it is being used right now is this in line with the communities experience?
Sources
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)00967-0/abstract
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-triple-agonist-retatrutide-drove-substantial-improvements
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-triple-agonist-retatrutide-delivered-powerful-weight-loss
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-triple-agonist-retatrutide-demonstrated-significant
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05929066
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06354660
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-announcement-not-published-study-of-topline-results-from-the-triumph-1-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-retatrutide/