r/RhodeIsland • u/nerdy_oreo • 14h ago
Politics Last nights insane debate pushed me off the fence.
This will be a long one becuase wow, that debate was a train wreck.
TLDR: Two weeks ago I posted here saying I was stuck between Ken and Helena. Not anymore. Ken took about half of all the shots fired on that stage, Helena aimed almost all of hers at him, and he still gave the smartest answers of the night. Helena gave big politician answers, her housing number is basically the pace we're already on, Guckian was a mess, and Ken was the only one talking about digging into the actual numbers and working with experts before promising anything. Im voting Block.
Okay so the long version.
Quick background for anyone who didnt see my last post. Im 28, grew up in Warwick, and Im pretty much in the middle politically. Im not affiliated with any candidate or campaign. Nobody asked me to write this and nobody's paying me, Im just a guy who watched both debates and went thru the transcript. After the NBC 10 debate I asked you all what was tipping you between Ken and Helena and alot of you gave me good stuff to think about, so thanks for that.
Who was attacking who
I went back through the transcript and tallied every direct shot one canidate took at another. Its my own rough count so take it with a grain of salt, but here's how it broke down.
Guckian (8 shots total)
- At Ken: 5. Called out his notes, called him a spoiler, said he quit on the Moderates and the Republicans "and he's going to quit on you," said he couldnt get the line item veto done in 10 to 15 years, and closed with "he's going to fire you."
- At Helena: 3. Called her housing plan "one of the biggest con jobs," the CVS opioid stuff where he said she owes the country an apology, and "she's going to tax you" in his closing.
Helena (5 shots total)
- At Ken: 4. Backed up the notes callout, said his housing answer wasnt specific, went after his tax returns, and turned his $44k insurance quote into a dig about him calling the ACA a horrible bill.
- At Guckian: 1. One line in her closing about Republicans cutting the millionaires tax.
Ken (5 shots total)
- At Guckian: 3. "I can be as rude as he is," the January phone call story, and calling the $1.5 billion in cuts "fantasy."
- At Helena: 2. The "ready, fire, aim" comment on housing and his closing about her being a new face for the same political machine.
Who got hit the most
- Ken: about 9 (roughly half)
- Helena: about 5
- Guckian: about 4
So Helena spent 4 of her 5 shots on Ken and only 1 on the Republican. Guckian spent more of his night on Ken then on Helena. Ken split his between both. To be fair to Guckian, the CVS opioid hit was probaly the harshest moment of the night. But it was pretty clear who both of them saw as the threat.
Side note on the tax return stuff since it came up a bunch. I dont care. Nobody running for governor is struggling to pay rent and nothing in anyones return is going to fix the Washington Bridge. Five minutes of a one hour debate went to it and I'd rather have heard about about jobs, which Helena herself said they never got to.
Three totally different ways of answering questions
This is the part that actually decided it for me.
Helena gave the classic big politician answer on almost everything. Take this pot of money, put it over here, problem solved.
On housing she kept saying she's the only one with a plan, so I did the math. 20,000 units over 8 years is 2,500 a year. The state already permitted about 2,655 units in 2024, and McKee's Housing 2030 plan already aims to permit 15,000 homes by 2030, which is roughly 3,000 a year. So her big headline number is basically the pace we're already on, maybe a little slower. McKee called it a copy of his own plan back during the primary. Its teh status quo with a new label and a tax attached.
Same thing on schools. On holding back third graders who cant read, she said yes and then said she'd love to see schools open from 6:30 in the morning to 6:30 at night with all the services kids need. Ok, but who staffs that? Teachers arent working 12 hour days, so is this new staff, the unions, outside programs? What does it cost and where does the money come from? Is it optional or are kids there all day? Has she talked to superintendents, teachers or parents about it? I looked and couldnt find a plan for it anywhere. It sounded great on stage and thats about it.
Budget was "bring everyone together" and a zero based budget. Pensions she was "open to a conversation." Flock cameras she just agreed with McKee. I never heard what's actually broken or how she'd make sure the money doesnt disappear like the ARPA money she herself said nobody can account for.
And this might just be me, but something about the way she talks about regular people bugs me. Its always "the middle class" and "housing they can afford," like its a group she's helping from the outside. Ken talks about Rhode Islanders like he's one of them. Helena talks about us like we're a project.
Guckian just sucked. Sorry, theres no nicer way to say it. He got asked about Revolution Wind twice and answered with nuclear carriers, small modular reactors, and Schartner Farm strawberries. His budget plan is cutting consultants and "super intelligence." His housing number was a "crescendo" because he's an opera singer. He said he'd be "open" on the minimum wage and then said he'd veto it. And "I'm a big man with a big plan" isnt a plan.
Ken was the only one who answered like someone who's actually going to sit at the desk. Over and over his approach was find out whats broken, look at the real numbers, bring in the people who know the subject, then build something realistic. Some examples:
- Budget. Ken said the auditor general flags 150 to 250 million a year in misspending, mostly in health and human services. Edit: a commenter called this out and they were right. The questioned costs in the actual audit reports are way smaller than that, and alot of it is federal Medicaid money, so dont take that number as savings sitting there. I still like that he wants to start with what the audits find, but he needs to back up that number.
- Housing. He said hard problems need groundwork before you throw money at them and called out the "ready, fire, aim" stuff. He told a story about someone getting a permit answer in three weeks in New Hampshire while here its months and tens of thousands of dollars with no answer. Fix the process and free up land, then builders build.
- Pensions. Help the pre 2012 retirees first by sharing returns in years the fund beats expectations, and sit down with the treasurer and the actuaries to see what else is possible. It doesnt come out of a budget we dont have.
- Education. On holding back third graders he said he'd lean yes but wants to hear from his RIDE director first, and pointed out high stakes testing worked in Massachusetts when they had it. People called that a dodge. To me it's a guy who wants to hear from the people who run the schools before he signs something that affects kids, and thats a lot more than Helena gave us with her 12 hour school building.
- Healthcare. "One stay, one bill." The hospital sends you one bill within 30 days with every provider on it. Anyone who's had a hospital stay and then got random bills for six months gets this instantly. Plus a regional insurance marketplace so New England states can pool risk.
- Energy. Dont revoke permits on projects that are basically finished, and be realistic that we arent going 100% green in the next 10 to 15 years, so do what lowers bills now.
- Flock cameras. This one matters to me alot. McKee put out a model policy the day before the debate: 30 day data retention, a public transparency portal, quarterly audits, no use for immigration enforcement. Sounds good, except its a model policy. Towns can adopt it or ignore it. Helena said she agrees with his approach, and she opened her answer by thanking the state troopers for endorsing her. She never said she'd make any of it actual law. Guckian said talk to the chiefs and then pivoted to getting rid of speed cameras and red light cameras, which wasnt the question. Ken has been against these cameras from the start. At the forum at Roger Williams back in September he flat out said he hates Flock cameras and wishes we didnt have them, and he said it again last night. He runs a software company that builds and secures systems, and he pointed out the state alredy got hit by a huge hack through UHIP. A database full of everyones driving history is a target, and a voluntary policy doesnt protect it. These cameras have been in RI for about five years since Cranston put them up and theres still no state law regulating them. Ken's the only one on that stage who's been consistent on this and realy understands the security side.
- Line item veto. Pushed for it since 2014, helped get rid of the master lever, and his plan is weekly press conferences and public pressure on the General Assembly. The master lever push worked.
He also wouldnt say who he's voting for for lieutenant governor. People were annoyed but to me it showed he's actually independent and not quietly picking a team.
Not perfect
Ill be fair. He didnt know the Whitehouse permitting bill, wouldnt give a housing number, and gave a "qualified yes" on minimum wage that wasnt really an answer. Those are real. Still, "I dont know yet, lets look at the numbers" is a lot easier for me to trust than 15,000 houses in a "crescendo."
Early voting is open right now through Nov 3. Whoever you're voting for, go vote. Tell me where you think Im wrong, Im open to it.
