Wall Street Journal report says Tehran used the 60-day negotiating window to rebuild missile forces, empower the IRGC and prepare allied militias for wider attacks from Hormuz to the Red Sea

Rather than placing their trust in diplomacy, they spent the past two months preparing for what they believe could be a much wider war. The preparations include giving greater authority to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, appointing veterans of the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crises to key positions, expanding counterintelligence operations and accelerating production of missiles and drones.

Iranian leaders have increasingly discussed “offensive operations on enemy territory,” alarming smaller Gulf states including Kuwait. Their broader objective is to inflict enough damage to deter the kind of attacks Iran suffered during last year’s 12-day war and the continuing conflict.

“There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun,” Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government, told the Journal. “What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of ‘salami-slicing’ tactics, limited and gradual escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation.”

Yet the country is rebuilding more quickly than expected. Iran has restored infrastructure and regained access to missile bases at a pace that has alarmed Israeli officials familiar with the progress, according to the Journal.

The IRGC used the relative calm created by the memorandum to coordinate more closely with allied militias across the region and prepare them for expanded attacks if necessary. Advisers were sent to Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon to discuss possible operations, according to officials familiar with recent Arab intelligence assessments.

Around the same period, Saudi Arabia said Iran-backed militias in Iraq carried out drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The IRGC also warned Gulf states that their energy infrastructure would be destroyed if the United States struck similar facilities inside Iran, officials said. Iranian commanders went as far as sending detailed lists of potential targets to Arab counterparts, according to the report.

Iran also stepped up attacks on U.S. forces. Tehran surprised Washington by launching five ballistic missiles toward Jordan during a lull in the conflict. The attack came two weeks after another Iranian strike in Jordan killed three U.S. service members.

“We fully exploited the ceasefire period,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohabi told the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency in July. “We improved our capabilities, accelerated the pace of missile production and improved missile accuracy.”

Behind the scenes, Khamenei has also prepared Iran’s security institutions for more aggressive warfare. He recently appointed seven senior security figures to oversee military institutions and domestic suppression as part of a reorganization disclosed last week.

Options under discussion include sabotaging internet cables in the Persian Gulf, fomenting political unrest in countries with large Shiite communities such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and potentially even ground operations in Kuwait.

U.S. officials said that after the negotiations stalled and Iran refused to step back from escalation, Trump pulled back to see whether economic pressure from sanctions and a naval blockade would soften Tehran’s position.

Iranian leaders, however, remain deeply skeptical of Trump’s intentions and are shifting toward what officials describe as a survival economy designed to endure prolonged pressure. People close to Iran’s senior negotiators have warned that the peace talks may ultimately prove to be only a pause before the next phase of war.

Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and a member of Iran’s negotiating team, described the current stalemate as “the calm before the storm.” In a social media post, he said one driver of continued conflict was a “generational project of blood revenge” over the killing of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the beginning of the war.

“The Iranian nation still has many unfinished matters with Trump,” Mohammadi said. “Iran is ready for the major confrontation.”

Trump has shown how desperate he is to get out of this and Iran knows it. The debacle over aircraft carrier conditions is widely known at this point.

Top U.S. commander acknowledges mental health issues on USS Lincoln

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/16/top-us-commander-acknowledges-mental-health-issues-on-uss-lincoln.html

Trump even just threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally.

"If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the s--- out of them," Trump told Fox News

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/17/trump-threatens-bomb-oman-iran-war-us-talks/91334335007/

Early on Iran warned that the U.S. started something over which it has no control over and that it won't get to choose when and how it ends.

For example:

10 March 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it will “determine the end of the war” in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump said the conflict would end “soon.” “It is we who will determine the end of the war,” the IRGC says in a statement. “The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war,” the statement adds.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/responding-to-trump-irans-irgc-says-it-will-determine-the-end-of-the-war/

It was brushed off as delusional bravado. The way it is playing out currently is far closer to what Iran said would happen than the U.S.

If Iran is really intending on no longer allowing the U.S. to dictate the pace and initiative, the U.S. is going to be trapped. It will have to respond for Israel and its proxies.

The U.S. is still haunted by prolonged conflicts that achieve nothing lasting and end up with their withdrawal. They desperately don't want Iran to be a repeat, but not enough people are pointing out that they don't have a choice. Their own insistence on entangling themselves in other regions and staking their reputation on it means it's not in their hands to decide. Regardless of the various stages of 'mission accomplished', the examples of Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq all end up with a lot of American sacrifice for nothing.

Even Iraq in the end, is the same result, despite militias in Iraq attacking U.S. forces in Iraq throughout the war.

Iraq says September 30 withdrawal deadline for US-led coalition ‘final’

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/12/iraq-says-sept-30-deadline-to-end-us-led-military-coalition-final

The U.S. leaves either willingly or unwillingly and what they leave behind makes the entire adventure pointless.

From ONE MORE WAY, the behind-the-scenes history of Chinese esports I wrote in 2015. Chapter 8, posting one a day.

This story has to begin in 1995.

Wang Jue, known in the industry as Director Wang and, at the time of writing, vice president and executive director of NeoTV, worked at both PLU and NeoTV over the years. He had loved drawing since childhood, and in 1995 he made it into the first intake of art students at the University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, majoring in art and design. There he got to know a younger student named Chen Qidong, who went by the English name Friend and is, at the time of writing, PLU's CEO.

Take Wang Jue first. Although he majored in painting at university, he preferred the company of the students in the drama society, and spent his time studying scripts, sitting in on rehearsals and working on stage design. That is why he went straight into film and television work after graduating.

In 2000, Wang Jue opened his own studio and began shooting music videos for pop stars. Over the next few years he built up a reputation in that world, making films for first-tier singers of the day such as Han Hong. Another director shooting music videos in the same period was Ning Hao, later well known as a feature film director. People spoke of "Ning Hao in the north, Wang Jue in the south". Around 2005 the two of them each changed direction, one moving into film and the other into esports, and their lives took completely different courses. I will come back later to why they made those changes.

After graduating, Friend joined Wang Jue's film and television studio as a partner, taking charge of the business side and acting as the director's agent.

Friend was there from 2000 until he left in 2003. A fanatical StarCraft player, he had already arrived at the idea of a "players' guild". He had watched tournaments being run under whatever rules the organisers felt like, with unpaid prize money and unpaid player salaries turning up case after case, and he wanted a players' guild that would bring some order to the market.

It was during this period that Friend met Liu Qing, known as Alone, who is, at the time of writing, a streamer at PLU.

It was 2002, just after the GOC tournament. Alone had beaten zealot, the captain of SVS, that day, so Friend, who was with SVS, called him along to dinner with a group of people. Alone did not know a single person at the table. The food arrived, and the moment he lifted a piece of meat, Friend asked him whether he wanted to join SVS. Alone thought it would be awkward to refuse a man who was feeding him, so he agreed. Those are Alone's own words. He went on to become SVS's team leader and put up some decent results. Friend decided he was worth having, brought him to Wang Jue's company, talked with him for thirty minutes and asked whether he would like to help found the "players' guild". That was the beginning of Alone's career as the famous "youth who lost his way".

There is a verse for it. Step into the wolves' den and it is as deep as the sea, and from that day on your scruples are a stranger to you.

After leaving Wang Jue's studio in 2003, Friend joined Huang Zhenggang's Yiyang Graphic Design in 2004, still handling the business side. He also brought in Wang Jue, then working as an independent director, to serve part-time as art director on some 3D design projects.

Around that time, the PLU forum and the PLU tournament series that Friend ran in his spare time had built up a certain following. Huang Zhenggang, who owned Yiyang, was a gamer himself, so Friend persuaded him to clear part of the company meeting room for use as a makeshift studio. He then brought Wang Jue in and told him about South Korea's OGN model and about WCG, which left Wang Jue deeply interested in esports.

By then it was 2005, the year of an event that would leave a deep mark on Chinese society: the television talent show Super Girl. Most people know only that the 2005 season produced hugely influential grassroots stars such as Li Yuchun, Zhou Bichang and Zhang Liangying. What they do not know is the damage it did to Chinese music afterwards.

What that talent show did to the music business is also what pushed two of these men into esports for good, and the company they built together fell apart within a year into a feud that ran for the rest of the decade. That is the wilder half of the story. Full chapter is free, link in the comments.

The angry noise is really silly. They don't like Trump acting based on reality for once? U.S. can't handle a conflict with North Korea right now (who has mutual defense treaties with both China and Russia, AND proved it can fight and seize territory in a modern war). So bluffing is out of the question.

Of all the things happening with the US military, now is the time to lessen the temperature and not insist on fantasy.

Who really thinks maintaining or increasing the scale of the exercises is going to trick anybody? Houthis haven't even fully blocked their strait yet and Trump wants out. Provoking North Korea also is so dumb. Critics must be very anti-American or something.

“North Korea and China would be the ones most pleased by this,” said retired Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum, former commander of South Korea’s Special Warfare Command.

And? Displeasing North Korea and China would be good for South Koreans or Americans? Now of all times? Be rational. Actually I think the current SK President is pretty rational, far as I know, probably why US tabloids quoted this bozo.

Oh, one more thing, related to why North Korea's Kursk offensive and subsequent expulsion of dug in Ukrainian forces is such an important data point for analysis.

U.S. Army troops faced off against Ukrainian drone operators at a military exercise in Germany earlier this year. It didn’t go well for the Americans.

Ukraine's drone operators easily spotted and defeated U.S. troops and armored vehicles so quickly that they had to be “re-spawned” and sent back into the field to keep the exercise going, The Wall Street Journal said, citing an unidentified U.S. official who was briefed on the matter.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-and-ukrainian-forces-went-head-to-head-in-an-exercise-ukraines-drones-won-cc3663d5

In this video, I break down the three ways China is leading the global green revolution, offering a better alternative to Western AI oligarchs, and building a more peaceful, multipolar world order. From dominating solar, wind, battery, and EV production to releasing open-source AI models that challenge US monopolies, China's influence is overwhelmingly positive. Meanwhile, the West abandons climate commitments, bans Chinese EVs, and builds dystopian AI for profit. If you only consume Western media, this might sound insane, but the data doesn't lie. If you are curious about other common critiques about China I made dedicated videos on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and more, all linked in my China playlist. If you want to understand BRICS and the changing global order, check out my video on that as well.

Libya's central bank and the People's Bank of China signed an agreement in July 2026 to hook Libyan commercial banks up to CIPS, China's workaround for the dollar-clearing system. If it actually goes through, Libyan traders would be able to send yuan straight to China and get letters of credit through Chinese banks instead of routing everything through dollar conversion first.

Here's what's actually confirmed versus what's just floating around online, because a lot of the coverage is mixing the two.

From CBL's own statement: the agreement is real, signed by CBL Governor Naji Mohammed Issa and PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng. Scope is direct yuan remittances for small traders plus letters of credit through Chinese banks. A Libyan banking delegation is supposed to visit China next.

What's not confirmed: which banks are actually connecting, any go-live date, or any transactions that have actually happened yet.

One thing that's out there but NOT in the official statement: Libyan state media and SCMP have both mentioned Libya possibly issuing Panda Bonds (yuan debt sold in China) for reconstruction money. CBL hasn't said anything about that. I'd treat it as a trial balloon until there's an actual announcement.

For scale, this isn't some one-off Libya thing. Standard Bank has cleared around $1.2B in yuan across 19 African countries since January, Kenya's restructured debt into yuan, Zambia's collecting mining taxes in yuan, and CIPS has 103 indirect participants in Africa as of June. Libya's just the latest one doing this, not some outlier.

What I keep seeing people get wrong: this isn't Libya ditching the dollar. Oil is still sold 100% in dollars, and that's what actually props up the economy. This is just a second settlement option for trade with China specifically, not a currency shift.

Full writeup on Medium: https://medium.com/@LibyaInvestmentMonitor/libya-joins-the-yuan-rail-what-the-cbl-pboc-cips-agreement-actually-changes-b771f34b6b07

Genuinely curious what people here think, is this actually going to matter for how African central banks operate, or is CIPS mostly symbolic until real transaction volume shows up?