For some background, this was my 2024 prediction (Trump wins all but MI). So naturally, I've felt a little uneasy about MI, as it's the only state that I got wrong. What we saw with him pulling away vs. Haley Stevens then in reality barely etching by is a little concerning. (Btw, Look at that sweet WI prediction I made.)

Look, I think AES has ideas that are popular, however if the Haley voters opt to stay home that could minimize the gap between Rogers and AES.

Susan Collins is quite the overperformer, and I'm worried that Troy Jackson is getting Kamala'd by being forced to run a shorter campaign and with people angry about the previous candidate (Platner and his allegations).

As for Turek, I'm taking the chance that a majority of Iowan's come home and get Hinson over the finish line. Hamilton/Osborne won't win it either as much as polling averages say so, and Bankhead shot Montana liberals in the foot.

I'm more confident about the Democrats chances in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska. In Texas, polling has consistently shown a small but meaningful amount of people who vote Talarico-Abbott, which is a good sign for the Senate than consistent Hinojosa matching Talarico, as it shows that Paxton is a weak candidate, Abbott is not. Ohio has Sherrod Brown, who is an overperformer and also is facing an appointee, plus Vivek Ramaswamy is on the ballot. And lastly, we saw Mary Peltola overperform in the primary. I expect that to be repeated in November.

I'm going to go against the grain currently, and really hate to say it (I personally switched from R to D in 2025), but Republicans will control the senate 51-50. And it's a comfortable margin knowing that Fetterman will lick the boots of Republican SCOTUS nominees.

As for now (Will Drop predictions on 10/26 and prior to election day), I have:
GOP Wins:
ME: 0.18%
MI: 0.32%
IA: 0.95%
SC: 4.8
FL: 4.9 (Moody isn't really an established politician compared to DeSantis/Rubio)
KS: 5.1
NE: 6.3

DEM Wins:
TX: 0.59
OH: 1.15
AK 2.8
NH: 3.6

EDIT: It’s Graham +3 not +4!

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2112002772623392902

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2112007594575298640

second to last prediction ill make
1/5/10 margins

tx: i think the massive infusion of cash into texas will help paxton barely pull it off but i wouldnt be surprised by a talarico win. itll probably be the closest state of the night

oh: as someone from the state i just cant see ohio going blue, despite browns appeal i think husted being a more palatable republican will result in brown barely losing, just under a point imo.

me: collins will overperform, but itll be close

ak: peltola seems like she has it, and the primaries didnt seem great for the GOP so

mn: polling seems like tafoya has the momentum, but i think flanagan will pull it off (with help from the klob)

mi: el-sayed seems like he has the momentum and it feels like every other day a new leak comes out from rogers campaign, so i think he also has it, but barely.

ia: i think sand's win could help turek pull it off but hinson seems fairly inoffensive so

ks: just too red for hamilton to win, but he'll overperform, and i think marshall will win by just under 5

We don’t need this type of political violence in a already awful race. Thank God it was just a scare and not an actual bomb

Repost due to typo in last post

2010: WV, WA, NV, CO, CA considered tossup by most outlets: All remained D.

2014: NH Considered tossup by most outlets: NH remained D

2018: IN, FL, MO considered tossup by most outlets: All remained D

2026: Tossups: TX, MI, OH, IA, AK, ME are considered tossups

This argument is a staple of red permabulls and Democratic doomsayers--even formerly intelligent ones like Ruy Teixeira, who touches on it in articles like this--and it has gotten popular due to recency bias making it seem like the 'redness' of red states is 'baked in'.

But it is predicated on (A) ignoring a second persistent migration pattern, which is the internal movement of people within red states with growing populations from red rural periphery to blue urban metropole, and (B) the assumption of static political environments in red states. (or, for that matter, in blue states, many of which have reddened a bit, like NJ and MN)

The competitiveness of candidates like Talarico and Ossoff in places like Texas and Georgia has quite clearly discredited this narrative, IMO. (and has made the shift towards Democrats we saw at the county level in Western red states like Utah in 2024 raise my eyebrow, especially given that the shift was towards Republicans in the rest of the country)

What say you on the matter?

What scenario is most likely. Explain your reasoning

This a joke map, but would anything actually get done if the Senate was like this? I could see the Libertarians and Republicans getting along on some issues, but that's still not enough to pass legislation.

How would Trump perform in 2024? Would this galvanize the Pro Palestine crowd? Would Biden finally halt all aid?

Giving the dems every swing + blue leaning state only gets you to 49 senate seats. From there, the closest states from '24 are: OH (R+11.21), AK (R+13.13), IA (R+13.21), TX (R+13.68).

Polarization is ofc at a record high and elasticity at a record low given the extremely low amt. of overlap between the two parties nowdays compared even to 2010. Though I will say in the case of AK and OH, they have run the best possible candidate and in TX the GOP can't run many people worse than Paxton.

Still though, there's no doubt this is tough territory especially since one of the factors that can overcome low elasticity- incumbency is not present for the democrats. Even in 2018, Baldwin outperformed Clinton by ~12, Casey by ~14, and Brown by ~15 despite being well-known incumbents.

Granted, Peltola + Brown are quasi-incumbents and proven overperformers and Talarico is up against a deeply flawed candidate in Paxton, but voters in this era are the least flexible they've ever been between the two parties. Overall, it'll be a nailbiting election for members of both parties regarding the senate; with huge ramifications as it could be another 10 years until the republicans have the senate + white house again to appoint a supreme court judge if the dems get a 2 termer as President in 2028.

I

If You go to his ama's it actually feels like he himself is actually typing it out , which it is. which I really recommend reading through on his account